just throwing in my sideline comments
Statistically speaking, Yoshi's Island Brawl is used nearly universally. I can only remember on tournament since I've been keeping tabs on rule usage that didn't have YIB as a legal stage.
Pictochat on the other hand, is almost universally banned. It is banned in the URS which we'll disregard for the sake of the argument and merely consider non-URS tournaments. Pictochat was legal in less than 15% of non-URS tournaments, which is 15% of a 45% group of tournaments that were non-URS in comparison to the 55% URS.
From a consistency standpoint, adopting Pictochat as a stage in the standard ruleset would be inconsistent since it's one of the stages that is nearly universally banned throughout standard tournament play. This is compared in direct contrast to Yoshi's Island Brawl which is nearly universally accepted.
Edit: Actually, 15% might be a loose number. I was mentioning tournaments with expanded stage lists. I might actually be smaller than 15 since it's Pictochat specifically and not an expanded stage list.
uhh... arcansi isn't talking about consistency in terms of history of legality, so why even bring this up? besides, fallacious appeal to tradition, etc. etc.
No, that's not what I'm saying.
You know exactly what could happen when you're wolf and you're about to throw your opponent on YI. You know the ghost could come, it's the only possibility. Thus, you don't dthrow because you know what could happen.
On pictochat, you don't know what's coming next, and you could be wrong. And what's worse, when you take action to avoid the hazard that you're guessing is coming, you can get punished.
i think the way you frame this is flawed
there's really no clear cut difference between
-ghost could come up, ghost could not come up
-drawing A could appear, drawing B could appear, drawing C could appear, drawing D could appear
the difference is that the second is HARDER to predict, but again there's no absolute there. it's theoretically possible (and not impractical imo) to calculate the relevant probabilities and weigh risk reward even on pictochat, but nobody does it. in other words, sure, you don't KNOW what's coming next on pictochat, but in exactly the same way, you don't KNOW what's coming on YI (ie- whether the platform will show up). or, you could say that you DO know what's coming on YI (ie - that the platform will either show or it won't), but in exactly the same way, you do KNOW what's coming on pictochat (exactly one of a given number of drawings will appear, or no drawing will appear). the possibilities on pictochat are still discrete, just no longer binary =\
anyways, that's not to say that i disagree with the distinction. you're saying the difference is that on YI, there's virtually no downside to attempting to predict the stage, whereas such attempts on pictochat could put you in disadvantageous positions. i think you're absolutely correct in stating that distinction.
i just question why that distinction matters. if we acknowledge that YI saving your opponent at 0% is essentially as "bad" as pictochat taking your stock at 0%, and we acknowledge that it is not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that these events CAN happen on both stages, then when we look at the big picture, why does it matter HOW the randomness affects the match when in the end, all that matters is that it DOES affect the match?
and of course, all that leads back to the point i keep stressing: that frequency of events MUST be weighed when comparing the two stages if there is to be a case to have YI legal with pictochat banned. yet opponents of pictochat constantly gloss over any mention of frequency and try to differentiate between the two stages based on arbitrary criteria that don't even make a difference in the grand scheme of things.
NOW, something you've cued me onto thinking from making that distinction is whether the nature of the random events might induce different changes in the playstyles of players such that the dynamic of a match on pictochat would be sufficiently altered such that we are not longer testing the skills we want to test (ie- perhaps we judge that play on pictochat becomes "too" careful; shoutouts to captain l for setting me back on this line of thinking). if this is the case, then we have a basis for how the nature of random events can affect the match in different
relevant ways, and then the "big picture" view that i've always advocated is no longer capturing all the information we want to capture. maybe this is what everyone's arguments against pictochat have been saying all along, but i've never seen it phrased this way. in any case, i would argue that the majority of people do not understand the stage well enough to be making these calls (for instance, anyone who thinks the "safe zone" idea of pictochat is at ALL relevant should be immediately disqualified from being considered as familiar with pictochat), and perhaps nobody (myself included) does, but there simply has not been enough exposure to the stage as of this moment.
god why was that soooo long