Rate And Discuss Their Chances: Closed

lobotheduck21 said:

anna prediction 1 (who is she)

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shinpichu said:

I just had an idea...

So, a lot of people want to see Tom Nook in SSB4, but a lot of people don't think he would make sense as a fighter. But what if(assuming DLC is implemented) they incorporated him/other characters like him as shopkeepers for the DLC stores?

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Reika Kitami said:

He could give any character a move set but it wouldn't fit the feel. He axed Ridley or being "too big"/

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Opossum said:

I guess this will be Tom Nook after the flavor tonight...poor guy.



[Collapse=Tom Nook's Fate]

[/Collapse]

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--- said:

I wonder just how many people even knew who Anna was until she was brought up here.

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--- said:

I wonder just how many people even knew who Anna was until she was brought up here.

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--- said:

I wonder just how many people even knew who Anna was until she was brought up here.

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Super Smash Bros. Fan said:

Rate and Discuss Their Chances: Anna

Previous Character: Tom Nook (0.53 in likelihood. 2.04 in want)
Up For Prediction: Plusle & Minun
Up for Discussing and Voting: Anna
Eligible for Re-Voting: No One (Yet)
Up for Re-voting: No One (Yet)

Welcome everyone to the revival of what is known as Rate Their Chances!

Speculation is an important part of the Smash Bros. community. Almost everyone in the community has at least one desire for a character to join up in Smash and there are many of us here with many hopes and dreams in regards to the rosters. Smash Bros. is of course about the characters and as such, the most heated discussion before the release of the game is of course the characters.

What many people love about discussing characters is discussing their likelihood. They want to show the world that the character they dream of is a possibility and are willing to debate, argue, flame, and tear their way to have people understand their points. Rate Their Chances is intended to reflect that same feeling in regards to debate and even arguing if it gets intense (not so much flaming). Almost anyone is fair game, so the next 1 2/3 - 2 2/3 years will be one of Smash 4's greatest spectacle in speculation.

So with that said let the debates and voting begin!

(but before you start, make sure to read below. All of it)

How To Play:

Spoiler

Of course we can't play this game without knowing how to, so as we would expect from all games, a way to play it needs to be known.

Days occur on a daily basis. They will always be at least twenty-four hours, but sometimes may have to be longer due to scheduling at work, although I will try to get to as close as twenty-four hours as possible.

There are four phase; nominations, prediction, voting and discussing, and result. All four phases occur on a daily basis and at the same time, just with different characters in them.

Phase One - Nominations: For Day One only, this will be the only phase due to candidates up for predictions or voting. This phase is where you can nominate a character, in which you have five nominations (or ten if you win the prediction for a character). Every character who is eligible and everyone who has not reached the prediction or voting phase yet are in the nominations phase. Nominations do not restart after a day, they simply add up. Nominating is optional, but heavily recommended. The one that receives the most nominations will go on to the next phase, which is...

Phase Two - Prediction: This phase starts with the second most nominated character on the first day and every day after that the one who is the most nominated. Here, you predict the final score the character gets during the discussion and voting phase tomorrow, using a decimal number system from 0 to 5 with degrees up to the hundredth (example is 3.21). A phase for this exist so that cheating is prevented during the voting phase. Note that the prediction is only used for likelihood score. Predicting a character's score is optional, but also recommended.

Phase Three - Discussion and Voting: Starts coming in Day Two with whoever gets the most nomination on the first day. Any other characters on succeeding days will get in after going through Phase Two. Here is where you can discuss and vote for a character's likelihood and how much you want the character. When rating how much you want the character and using likelihood, like prediction, you will also use a 0 to 5 scale, using a decimal number system up to the hundredth. Last version of the game used a letter grade system, but with letter grades for likelihood and wants and a decimal number system for predictions, things got very confusing and disorganized. Having both as decimal number keep things much less confusing.

Voting for a character's likelihood and discussing it is mandatory if you are going to mention the character (unless of course you do not feel you can properly judge a character's odd and as such, decide to abstain). However, voting for how much you want a character is optional.

Phase Four - Results: Occurs starting Day Four. The final result for likelihood and wants are tallied up and presented to the thread. The one who's prediction for likelihood for a character is the closest will win five more nominations (or ten if they get it right). If multiple people get the same prediction, only the one who predict first will win.

Re-voting: A character cannot be re-voted until after one month has passed since they were voted. This is to ensure that the character can get a fair try again with new perspective, but also that they aren't abused in discussion. In order for a character who hasn't been voted for in a month to be voted again, they need 100 nominations. Note that nominations for re-votes are included within the five (or more) nominations you have for the day, so you cannot pour five nominations into a re-vote and vote for five other characters who have yet to be voted on.

When a character is nominated, they follow the same phase Two-Four as new characters, but they do not replace the new character; rather they compliment it and both are predicted, rated, and discussed.

The Seven Deadly Rules:

Spoiler

In this intense forum where flame wars are very susceptible to breaking out, some order will be needed to keep things clean.

1. 4th party characters, ones who have not been on a Nintendo console, or ones that do not exist are not eligible for ratings. So no Goku, Master Chief, or 7th Gen Pokemon.

2. This is a game, please treat it as such. Respect everyone's opinion, including ones who you dissent from.

3. Debates about the character is fine, in fact, encouraged. However, flame wars are not tolerated and will be punished on site. Those who participates in them will be reported for flaming and lose the ability to nominate characters or vote for two days on the first offense. Second offense is four days, third offense is a permanent ban from participating in this game.

4. Bias is inevitable when it comes to opinions, but keep them in check. Giving a character a 0 or 5 in likelihood because you loathe/love the character will cause your vote to be skipped over. Troll voting is also unacceptable and that will result in you being unable to nominate or vote a character for two days.

5. Any of the characters below are not eligible due to being agreed upon 99% universally that they will be in:

- Mario
- Luigi
- Peach
- Bowser
- Donkey Kong
- Diddy Kong
- Yoshi
- Wario
- Link
- Zelda
- Samus
- Pit
- Kirby
- King Dedede
- Fox
- Pikachu
- Captain Falcon

Anyone else is fair game. Veterans from Melee and Brawl will be put into their own category and all of the veterans not eligible will be put in with a 5. This is to prevent a case of "why are we voting someone so obvious it's not funny?"

6. Do not use this thread to "increase/decrease" a character's odds. This thread is a game, meaning that it should be treated as such; just for fun and nothing else.

7. NEVER, EVER, counter the ratings. People are entitled to have dissenting opinions from you. Giving a character a low or high score because scores looks unfavorable to you shows that you are butthurt. Anyone who does this will suffer the same punishment like with flaming.

Failure to adhere to these rules will result in your ability to participate in this thread being removed.

Fallacious Arguments That Are Not Allowed:

Spoiler

I encourage any form of logic in debates, but what I don't accept are arguments that are pure bias (unless that bias is used for how much they want a character and only that). Some arguments that will invalidate a vote if no valid arguments is present:

This character sucks/rocks and won't/will be in because of this: Love/hate the character? Give high or low score on the want scale. Rating chances requires you try to be objective and explain why you believe your choice has the shot it does. If all your chances vote are influence by pure bias, then you shouldn't be participating.

She's a female, therefore likely: And before anyone points to what Sakurai said about Zero Suit Samus, she fulfilled Sakurai's four criteria's, so she would have still gotten in even if Sakurai wasn't concern about adding females. Females that do get in will get in by their own merit and what Sakurai thinks of them, not by affirmative action.

He/she/it is a villain: Since when has Sakurai ever added a character based off being a villain? Villains will only be added if they are worthy of a spot, If being a villain is all you have, then you have no ground to stand on saying a character has a shot of being in.

He/she/it has no potential for fighting!: Unless you can explain why the character doesn't have the potential to fight, then if this is all you have, your vote is invalidated. End of story.

He/she/it will be in because... I say so!: Explain why you think a character's odd is what they are. Don't just slap in a likelihood rating and expect me to count it. It in no way does it show that you have reasons to believe that a character is of that likelihood.

He/she/it is too small/big!: Everytime someone use this argument, counter it with Bowser and Olimar being re-sized. This argument holds no water and should be swatted like flyswatter.

FAQs:

Spoiler

[COLLAPSE="Why did the old thread get locked?"]Mainly because the old system was so complicated that it confused a lot of people. A much simpler version will work out much better.

[COLLAPSE="I want to participate in this, but I don't know where to start for or against a character's chances."]The most important thing to look at is Sakurai's four criteria. Every character in Brawl met this, so it's a good thing to go by. The four criteria Sakurai mentioned are:

- People must want to play as this character
- The character must be unique
- The character must fit into the game
- The character must be adaptable

If a character fits, chances are that they have a realistic chance of getting in.

Other things to keep in mind is the importance of the character, Sakurai's bias and interest in a character's inclusion for SSB4, and to a lesser extend, representation. Also keep in mind that Sakurai usually includes transformation when discussing characters, saying that Melee has 26 instead of 25 and Brawl has 39 instead of 35. Relevance, promotion and patterns are also allowed in here, since I can see the reason why people use them, but given that Sakurai has stated nothing about any of these being a contributing factor, I would discourage people from using it and stick to what Sakurai has stated.[/COLLAPSE]
[COLLAPSE="Once we vote/predict, are we allow to change them?"]Of course, but you are only allowed to change predictions during the prediction phase and vote during the voting phase. This is to prevent cheating.[/COLLAPSE]
[COLLAPSE="Will voting veterans and newcomers come at the same time or will only one character be voted, regardless of status, and are veterans and newcomers nominations counted differently?"]nly one character will be voted, regardless of status. You only get five nominations, regardless of whenever or not it's a veteran or a newcomer.[/COLLAPSE]
[COLLAPSE="How long is this game going to last"]Unless there is some major hiccups or e-drama that cause the thread to be closed, it should last until Smash 4 gets released.[/COLLAPSE]
[COLLAPSE="Super Smash Bros. 4 has been released! Will you be doing one for SSB5"]Almost certainly not. I am planning on going retro after SSB4 releases since it is one of the last games I am anticipating. If someone wants a SSB5 variation, they are going to have to take over for that game.[/COLLAPSE]
[COLLAPSE="Lame. We're only discussing and rating characters? What else is there to it"]Music to fit the character. You can mention music for specific characters if you want more of a soundtrack for it while it is still up in discussion/voting phase. I will also create a game thread specifically for the General Discussion SSB4 forum, which will cover other aspects of the game.[/COLLAPSE]
[COLLAPSE="Anything I can do to help?"]A banner would be nice, but not necessary. However, you can help by suggesting how to improve this so that this can be a more enjoyable experience for everyone.[/COLLAPSE]
[COLLAPSE="Yay! A character did well in ratings! I'm going to use this to push a character I want!"]Did you hear? Bad things happen when you try to use this to push for characters inclusion.[/COLLAPSE][/COLLAPSE]
Veterans and Newcomers:

Spoiler

Want to see how a character did? Check here:

Veterans:
1. Mario (5)
2. Luigi (5)
3. Peach (5)
4. Bowser (5)
5. Donkey Kong (5)
6. Diddy Kong (5)
7. Yoshi (5)
8. Wario (5)
9. Link (5)
10. Zelda (5)
11. Samus (5)
12. Kirby (5)
13. King Dedede (5)
14. Fox (5)
15. Pikachu (5)
16. Captain Falcon (5)
17. Pit (5)

Newcomers:
Top Ten:
1. King K. Rool (4.24 in likelihood, 4.36 in want)
2. Palutena (4.12 in likelihood, 3.65 in want)
3. Ridley (4.01 in likelihood, 4.19 in want)
4. Mewtwo (4.01 in likelihood, 4.17 in want)
5. Takamaru (3.65 in likelihood, 3.14 in want)
6. Shulk (3.42 in likelihood, 3.05 in want)
7. Isaac (3.33 in likelihood, 3.62 in want)
8. Muddy Mole (2.4 in likelihood, 3.03 in want)
9. Starfy (2.32 in likelihood, 2.74 in want)
10. Dark Samus (1.91 in likelihood, 2.28 in want)
--------------------------------------------
11. Chibi-Robo (1.63 in likelihood, 2.71 in want).
12. Tom Nook (0.53 in likelihood. 2.04 in want)

Changes to Characters:

Alternate Costumes:

Nominations:

Spoiler

x39 Lloyd Irving
x39 Samurai Goroh
x34 Zoroark
x32 Saki
x30 Ice Climbers
x29 Sukapon
x27 Paper Mario
x25 Krystal
x25 Mega Man
x25 Dixie Kong
x23 Rosalina
x23 Roy
x22 Ray (Custom Robo
x22 Toad
x22 Waluigi
x22 Black Shadow
x21 Shy Guy
x20 Ness
x20 Lip
x20 Bowser Jr.
x18 Medusa
x18 Geno
x16 Mr. Stevenson
x16 Little Mac
x15 Kalas
x14 Ghirahim
x14 Mach Rider
x11 Sonic
x10 Adam Malkovich
x9 Bandanna Dee
x9 Mii
x8 Lucario
x7 Impa
x6 Skull Kid
x6 Yoshimitsu
x5 Animal Crosser
x5 Shadow the Hedgehog
x5 Duck Hunt Dog
x5 M. Bison
x4 Balloon Fighter
x4 Kamek
x3 Prince Sable
x3 Funky Kong
x3 Pokemon Trainer
x3 Tingle
x2 K. K. Slider
x2 Majora's Mask Link
x2 Dillon
x2 Genesect
x2 Groose
x2 Andy
x2 Daisy
x2 Lucina
x1 Hades
x1 Zero Suit Samus
x1 Birdo
x1 Zero (Mega Man)
x1 Young Link
x1 Ninten
x1 Micaiah
x1 Ivy (Soul Caliber)
x1 Morrigan (Darkstalker)
x1 Chaos (Sonic the Hedgehog)
x1 Zero Suit Samus
x1 Nightmare (Soul Caliber)
x1 Black Knight
x1 King Boo
x1 Krom
x1 Shake King
x1 Terra Bradford
x1 Leon Powalski
x1 Prince Fluff
x1 Mike Jones
x1 Meowth[
x1 King Hippo
x1 Pichu
x1 Tails
x1 Shadow

Links and References:

Spoiler

Day One (Nominations): #1 - #34
Day Two (King K. Rool): #34 - #68
Day Three (Ridley): #68 - #94
Day Four (Takamaru): #94 - #136
Day Five (Dark Samus): #136 - #191
Day Six (Muddy Mole): #191 - #243
Day Seven (Palutena): #243 - #285
Day Eight (Mewtwo): #285 - #383
Day Nine (Chibi-Robo): #383 - #422
Day Ten (Isaac): #422 - #469
Day Eleven (Starfy): #469 - #509
Day Twelve (Shulk): #509 - #544
Day Thirteen (Tom Nook): #544 - #581
Day Fourteen (Anna): #581 - ???

Music For All To Enjoy:

Spoiler

Game:
Nominations Music (Earthbound Main Theme)
Prediction (Yu Yu Hakusho's Monster Suit)
A Heated Argument (Dragon Ball Z Japanese Fight Music)

Characters:
Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars: Boss Battle Theme (Super Mario Bros.)

Donkey Kong Country: Jungle Hinx (Donkey Kong)
Donkey Kong Country: Final Boss (Donkey Kong)
Donkey Kong Country 2: Mining Melancholy (Donkey Kong)
Donkey Kong Country 2: Final Boss (Donkey Kong)

The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword: Lord Ghirahim's Theme (The Legend of Zelda)

Super Metroid: Title Screen (Metroid)
Super Metroid: Ridley Boss Theme (Metroid)
Metroid Prime 2: Echoes: Dark Samus Battle Theme (Metroid)

Pokemon Stadium: Battle With Mewtwo (Pokemon)

Pokemon (Anime) - Gym Leader (Version 2) (Pokemon (Anime)

F-zero GP Legend: The Meaning of Truth (F-zero)

Fire Emblem: Attack (Fire Emblem)

Kid Icarus Uprising: Palutena's Temple (Kid Icarus)
Kid Icarus Uprising: The Return of Palutena (Kid Icarus)

Nazo No Murasame Jo: Orchestral music (The Mysterious Mursame Castle)

Mole Mania: Forest Theme (Mole Mania)

Golden Sun: Venus Lighthouse (Golden Sun)

Xenoblade Chronicles: Guar Plain (Xenoblade)
Xenoblae Chronicles: Engage the Enemy (Xenoblade)

Densetsu no Starfi 4: Boss Battle (Starfy)
The Legendary Starfy: Super Tough (Starfy)
The Legendary Starfy: Final Boss Battle (Starfy)

Animal Crossing: 2 AM (Animal Crossing)
Animal Crossing: Tom Nook's Store (Animal Crossing)

Chibi-Robo: Abandoned Memories (Chibi-Robo)

The Last Story: Dance of Death (THe Last Story)
The Last Story: Invitation to Madness (The Last Story)

Sonic Unleashed: Chun-Nan (Day) (Sonic the Hedgehog)

Mega Man 10 Image Soundtracks: Cybersheep Dreams (Mega Man)
Mega Man Network Transmission: Net On Fire (Mega Man)

Final Fantasy VI: The Decisive Battle (Final Fantasy)

Misc.:
I'm Coming Out (Diana Ross)

Have you read all of this? If not, go back and read them. Then come below and have fun!

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victinivcreate1 said:

You said that bad things happen when you route for your fave characteer.. WHat happened, i havent been on this site for 6 months. IS Victini no longer an option or something?

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