Rate And Discuss Their Chances: Closed

Dixie Kong

Want: 5
Likelihood: 4

Dixie is my girl! Being a major star in the original DKC trilogy along with her forbidden 7 status leaves be to believe she has a very high chance of being included. Of course the way most people vote, if they don't like the character they rate the likelihood very low and vice versa, so my score probably seems inflated. But the fact that she was actually attempted at all makes me feel she has higher chances than K Rool, despite him being so popular. Not that they can't join at the same time of course.

Her hair being used as a 3rd arm and primary weapon make her extremely unique, and is probably the sole reason why her and Diddy just didn't work well together. Seeing as the Ice Climbers are designed exactly alike, her and Diddy together being very different design wise probably led to her exclusion as they were very different. Where as if they had the exact same moveset they literally would just be another Ice Climbers which it seems Sakurai didn't want either.

This thread is way overdue for a new day.

Ending this one now. Next post will contain the next day (flavor will come later when I'm not feeling tired).

@Venus: Orientation didn't sucked, but unfortunately, I was stuck running around college for things I needed to do and I still have to get my dang Student ID. Then I was hoping to use said student e-mail to register onto NeoGAF, but it's not letting me use my e-mail at home for some mysterious reason. Pretty frustrating day, thank god all of this should be taken care of tomorrow. And hopefully I can finally start posting at NeoGAF.

Rate Their Chances started off with a bang with King K. Rool. The reception to his inclusion was extremely positive and most everyone thought he was among the most likely newcomers for this game. Dixie Kong rolled into the stadium with a much more lukewarm reception.

While it wasn't anything bad, it wasn't anything to write home about either. Dixie Kong did okay on the likelihood front, scoring a 2.96, although the same couldn't be said for her want score, which performed a mediocre 2.67. Astro had won the nominations and pinpoint the exact score, so Dixie Kong gave him ten bananas, one of which she stuff into Astro's mouth to eat. She walked home tired, not knowing what Smash 4 had in store for her.

Ray then came bursting on the scene. Pod shots went all over the stadium, causing the audience to dodge them in order to prevent from being hurt. He was energetic and ready to go. But with his declining relevancy, it was unknown how the audience would react.

Day Thirty-One has began! Today, you will be voting for Ray from Custom Robo and predicting what Paper Mario gets tomorrow. Day ends at 6:00 PM CST.

Also, important announcement. Starting August 27th, 2012 (when I go to my first day of college), I will stop telling you when the day start, so do expect inconsistency as studying will be top priority for me. Not to mention I also expect my activity on this site to decline, but not so much that I can't access this.

Ray
Want 2.5
Never played Custom Robo, so I don't really care about him.
Likelihood: 3.5
His series seems semi-popular, and it may get a new game soon. Plus, him being an Assist Trophy probably improve his chances.

Paper Mario: 2.43

Nominations:
Doctor Mario x5

Let' start with Ray:
Want: 1
I really never cared about him, but seeing what he can do as a assit trophy give me a little of interest on him

Likelihood: 1.20
Still, maybe Sakurai will bring new series to the smash bros, and if someone from Custom Robo series have the spotlight, it will be Ray for sure.

I will predict a 3.26 for Paper Mario! I'm really curious to see people's opinions over him!

Nominations: Olimar x5

Ray

Ray would make a great addition into the Smash world. The Custom Robos are made to fight and have a ton of versatility for a move set. Plus Ray could be a highly popular addition within the Smash universe because he could fit in so well.

Unfortunately for our fallen hero, his chances are looking very grim. Pre-Brawl, he had everything needed to be a plausible, if not probable candidate. He was highly requested and still had his series going.

But since then, he seems to have lost almost everything. He has lost his relevance (not that it matters much, just throwing it out there), his importance, and his appeal to Smash fans. Once one of the most wanted new series, his popularity is now at a low.

The only hope Ray has for this game is if he scored well in the pre-Brawl poll and Sakurai looks mostly to that for new characters, but chances of that happening are slim. Otherwise, there is the chance that Ray might get a new game, but even if it does go through, it will be too late to help Ray's very weak odds. Perhaps Smash 5 he'll have a fair shot at the roster if his (potential) new game brings in a lot of fans; but that really doesn't matter to me since I'm not going to follow Smash after this game.

For a want score, since Ray is my fifth most wanted character and like Saki, would fit like a glove, he gets a 5. But as much as it pains me to say it, he is almost certainly not getting in Smash 4, so he gets an unfortunate 0.5 in likelihood.

Predicting that Paper Mario gets a 2.24 in likelihood.

Likelyhood: 3. Ray was an AT in Brawl and Noise has stated that a new CR is possible.
Want: 5

Nominate: Lucina x5

Want: 1.

Never played Custom Robo. Heard it's pretty fun, though.

Likelihood: .99.

I'd like to first point out something. Barring retro+hardware characters, and third parties, Smash gives very limited numbers to new series each game.

Melee gave Fire Emblem a series, and Brawl gave WarioWare/Land and Pikmin a shot.

Pretty limited.

Now, I know that there's a smaller pool now, but I don't think he'll go overboard with new series. Ray gets hit hard by this. With so many new series that could be included (once again barring retro, hardware, and 3rd party), including: Punch-Out!!, Golden Sun, The Legendary Starfy, Sin and Punishment, and Xenoblade, Ray has competition.

Not to mention that unlike the above series, his series is pretty dead at the moment. All of the others at least had a game from after Brawl. Ray was last seen in 2006, barring his Brawl appearance. For a new series character, it kinda hurts his odds.

Plus, his fans aren't exactly the loudest...

Predicting a 2.3 for Paper Mario

x5 for Ghirahim.

Alright my #2 is up for prediction! nvm that though.
Ray from custom robo, although I have never played it and know next to nothing about it I can tell you he would be a cool character and I would enjoy him
want: 3.2
likeliness: 1.3
I'm not sure how relevant custom robo is today or fan demand, but 1.2 sounds to be in the ball park.

Paper Mario prediction: 2.18

nominations : Skull Kid X5

Ray would serve as a unique character, with a massive depth of abilities to pull from. That, and I'm hoping a Smash appearance will garner a Custom Robo comeback, he gets a 5 in want.

That said, given his series has been dormant, I'd give in a 2.5 in likely.

Ray:
Want- 2.5
Likelihood- 1

I don't think Ray and/or the Custom-Robo series will be getting anything more than Assist Trophies or stages, because their fans certantly are not the most demanding ones and Custom-Robo isn't that big of a series to the Big N.

Prediction for Paper Mario- 2.5

Nominations
Mach Rider
Snake x4

Pretty much everyone is saying what I'd say. Custom Robo isn't the most well-known/popular/requested series among smash fans. It probably won't get anything more than an AT.

Want: 0
Likeliness: 0.5

I nominate Lyn x5.

Want: 5 ever since I saw his trophy in melee
Liklihood: 1.8

He would make a great addition to smash but he has competition for the small amount of roster spots with the other likely assist trophy's. But then again Sakurai did add R.O.B and nobody saw that coming.

Nominations: 5x Skull Kid

Want - 5
One of the few new series I really hope gets a character
likelihood - 2 no custom robo games in a whiiile.... >.>

5x nominations funky kong

Prediction: 2.32

Nominations:
Ganondorf x5

Ray:
Want: 2.5
Again, don't really care one way or the other.

Likelihood: 0.5
Sakurai didn't find Custom Robo to be worthy of a character in Brawl's time (again, only mentioned Animal Crossing and Pikmin as newer series that deserved a character), and even his Assist Trophy just refers to him as "Custom Robo", a generic title, which shows how little they are looked at.
That, and there hasn't been anything after Brawl for the series that could possibly change Sakurai's mind on the matter.

Want: 2
I love his games, but I have little interest for him in Smash. Actually, I don't have little interest in him, I just have alot more interest in other characters from unrepped series.

Likelihood: 1
He didn't manage to get a spot in Brawl, and honestly since then his chances have only decreased. He was never the most popular request, and while he has more popularity in Japan than overseas (understandably so, as they have more than double the Custom Robo games) even his popularity there has diminished. He could definitely work if included (I would be interested to see his actual size if he ever becomes playable), but until he starts getting regular games again, he is greatly out-prioritized, popularized, and requested by many other characters who would represent a new series and actually have had games come out after Brawl. I really hope those comments about NOISE wanting to create another Custom Robo come into fruition. But as it stands now, he chances are IMO worse than they were for Brawl.

Nomz:
x3 Skull Kid
x2 Lucario

Nominations

ROB x5

Voting & Discussing

Ray

Personal Bias: 0.75
Likelihood: 0.5

I was never interested in the Custom Robo series so I haven't learned much about it.

Out of the mentioned possible newcomers, Ray isn't very noticeable. I see him on a few rosters here & there but those usually are on rosters over 50. If there is a roster with over 50 playable characters Ray might be there, but if under, I don't see him. Maybe if he was to get a new game his chances will rise; he just isn't as popular as other characters.

Prediction

Paper Mario: 2.66

Updated nominations.

75 minutes left.

As said by the audience, some of whom were his fans, Ray had fallen from grace. His want and likelihood score had indicated his downfall. Ray had lost his importance, his relevance, and his popularity, all of whom cast a large shadow of doubt upon Ray, whom despite his impressive performance on-stage (and some misfires), was not able to overcome.

Ray's want score wasn't too bad; 2.94 certainly could have been much worse, but his likelihood score indicated why there was such silence in the audience; because they couldn't find much positive in him in general. This had him confused, considering the optimistic attitude fans had of him pre-Brawl. Opossum was awarded five more nominations because of his rants against Astro gaining ten more nominations.

When Astro opened the door for him to leave, he left immediately. He wanted to know what went wrong and how to rectify the doubt on him; but his lack of adventures was one of those reasons.

Today, however, would be a return to the typical flame wars that fans were accustomed to. The third potential Mario rep had arrived, and he was flat. So flat that he was 2-D; not to mention it was Mario. Since Mario wasn't eligible for this competition, he decided to go in as another alt, hoping that the reaction would be just as good.

He would be disappointed. While he had many fans, this also came with many detractors.

Day Thirty-Two has began. Today, you will rate Paper Mario and predict what Yoshimitsu gets tomorrow. Day ends before 9 PM CST tomorrow.

Paper Mario:
Want- 3.9
Likelihood- 2.5

Paper Mario is tied for my most wanted Mario newcomer with Toad, so I definetely want him.
Now, I don't think he's the most likely one, because, his importance to the Mario series as a whole is very small, despite having his own spin-off games, and his fan-base certantly isn't as big as Bowser Jr., Toad or Waluigi's.

Prediction for Yoshimitsu- 0.24

Nominations
Snake x2
Dr. Mario x2
Mach Rider

Paper Mario time.

Want: 1

I've only played TTYD and couldn't get passed this one part early on...I sucked...

That, and with Mario newcomers up in the air, I'd rather not have another Mario, even if he'd be unique.

Likelihood: 1.89

He's got a shot. He also has competition. Generally, the four Mario newcomers brought up most often are Toad, Bowser Jr., Waluigi, and Paper Mario. Out of them, Paper Mario generally gets the least attention, at least from what I've seen. If we get another Mario character, Sakurai's probably gonna go for a newcomer with fan support. Paper Mario fans are, from my own experiences, quieter.

I admit, many are driven away due to the ignorant "lol autocloooone !!1!" status, but it is really only ignorant. Sakurai could make him a clone if he wanted (), but with the different body type it doesn't make too much sense to me.


tl;dr: Quite a bit of competition and less support than his competitors.


One thing, though. I highly doubt he'll be in as anything but a Mario series character. He's not gonna be getting his own icon...



Predict a (generous) 0.43 for Yoshimitsu

Nominate Ghirahim x10

Paper Mario:
Want: 2
I don't care much if he's in, but at the same time, I'd rather not have him in.

Likelihood: 2.5
As a 2nd Mario, he's got MAJOR competition in Dr. Mario, who is a Smash veteran and was planned for Brawl.
As a Mario character, he's got competition with Toad, Waluigi, and Bowser Jr., and between them vs. a 2nd Mario (that isn't Doc), I feel Sakurai would go for one of them instead.
Paper Mario could represent his own series, however, but a counter to that would be Dr. Mario not doing so. However, call it a hunch, but I feel if Dr. Mario does return, he will represent his own series rather than the main Mario series, so I feel the same would happen with Paper Mario.

But the biggest factor that harms Paper Mario is that we don't even know if Mario is getting a Newcomer.

Paper Mario

Want: 3
Out of all of the popular potential Mario newcomers, Paper Mario is my most wanted. The Mario RPGs are criminally underepresented in Smash, so it would be good to se a rep.

That said, I'm still hesitant to say if there even SHOULD be a new Mario character. I still think that franchises that don't have very many reps (i.e. Metroid, S&P, Golden Sun, etc.) should get slots, while franchises that have lots of reps(like Mario) should stick with what they have.

Likelihood: 2
Eh. Can't really say for sure. Most people will probably just dissmiss him as a clone(whether that is true or not), and he has competition from a ton of other potential Mario characters.

Prediction for Yoshimitsu: 1.91

Nominations:
Doctor Mario x5

Want: 2.5
Like Toad, Bowser Jr, and Waluigi, I am relatively indifferent to his inclusion. I don't support it, but I also wouldn't be disappointed by it. I believe the four most likely Mario inclusions all have aspects about them I would enjoy playing as, including Paper Mario.

Likelihood: 2
While he chances aren't as nearly poor as Mario characters like Rosalina, Daisy, Geno, etc. I believe of the four generally considered "most likely", he has the most questionable chances. Not only is he a 2nd version of a character (not that he would be a clone of Mario or anything), but overall he also receives less requests than Bowser Jr. and Waluigi and is less popular than all three. However, he does have his own successful sub-series, and Sakurai might choose to represent that above a character less important to the main series than the four already playable. However, because he is overall the least popular and requested character, I believe one of the other three will be included over him.

Nomz:
x5 Skull Kid

Prediction for Yoshimitsu: 0.36 (This Namco involvement is really giving people weird ideas)

Want: 2
Likeliness: 1

I actually like this guy. But high bar theory, other Mario newcomers, Dr. Mario and whatnot.

Finally it's PM's day!



Want: 5
He could be a great (gonzales ) chacacter! I'm a very big fan of the series since the first tittle was released for Nintendo 64 (I downloaded if from virtual console).
He can be (and MUST be) a unique chacater, since his body is totally different from the original Mario. His moves are based on hammers, jumps, badges, and, if's possible to use, his partners.
Also, he could represent his own series (like Yoshi and Wario).

Likelihood: 2.80
He doesn't have a very strong fan base. He needs to compete with Daisy, Waluigi, Toad, Rosalina, and even Geno. BUT I will say it again: HE COULD REPRESENT HIS OWN SERIES! It's a big one, it's already have 3 tittles and there is fourth upcoming one.
He have a big potential for a chacacter (I have sure that Sakurai knows that)

Bonus:
[COLLAPSE="Melee trophy"]
The Star Rod: Bowser stole it, and Mario wants it back. Bowser vs. Mario is familiar for Mario aficionados, but Paper Mario is novel. What this game brings to the 3D polygon-filled gaming world is its art style: everything is wafer thin! What the visuals lack in realism, they more than make up for in unique artistry. [/COLLAPSE]

[COLLAPSE="Brawl Trophy"]
A legendary hero whose adventure unfolds when he sets out to rescue Princess Peach from the nefarious clutches of Count Bleck. He has the ability to flip the world from 2-D to 3-D and back again. If he grabs a Mega Star, he'll transform into a pixelated giant Mario. In this state, he's invulnerable and capable of stomping through enemies and obstacles with ease.[/COLLAPSE]

Yoshimitsu prediction:
0.54

Edit: forgot my nominations!
Olimar x5

Paper Mario

I love Paper Mario and all three games (which were great in their own rights, all of which I would recommend) in the series (makes me wish the fourth one was coming to Wii-U). They were very unique RPGs that are easy to get into, but are deep games with great musics and great game play. Paper Mario would have a lot to work with if he got into Smash (they COULD make him a clone, but this is under the assumption that he's unique). The partner system would be very unique to Smash, as he could switch out with various partners throughout the series. He could also use his hammer, turn into a paper airplane, and use the various unique items that is used in the game. Another selling point for me is that he would finally bring the Mario RPGs the proper representation that the Mario RPGs deserve. The Mario franchise in Smash has mostly ignored this problem; bringing in Paper Mario can fix this (thought I would be happy if they did fix the lack of RPG representation within the Mario franchise period even without Paper Mario). These make Paper Mario a very attractive option, so I give him a 5 in want.

Unfortunately, his odds are looking poor at the moment. The first thing to note is that Paper Mario, while he has accomplished more than Waluigi, is still far behind Toad and Bowser Jr. in importance, which I feel is the biggest deciding factor when it comes to a possible Mario newcomer. What also hurts is as I said before, the lack of Mario RPGs representation. I would love for Sakurai to fix this problem with the lack of Mario RPGs representation, but what this shows is that Sakurai doesn't feel the RPGs deserves much of anything in Smash and I don't expect that to change.

The only thing that sets him apart as a candidate at the very moment is Sakurai's fondness for adding alternate characters; given what we've seen in Melee and Brawl. If Sakurai were to add another alternate character, Paper Mario seems to be the most likely (I think Dr. Mario is going to be relegated to an alt costume). However, that is probably not going to be enough to get him in (especially when Sakurai has a very high expectation for a Mario newcomer and us having already two stronger candidates being more likely to fulfill that).

So for likelihood and with a heavy heart, I have to give him a 1.2 in likelihood.

Nominate Lucario, Mii, Ghirahim, Mach Rider, and Geno all x3.

I predict a 0.78 for Yoshimitsu.

Paper Mario were a series of comical and unique RPG's compared to RPG and Mario & Luigi. They show Mario with a different personality, a different look, and a different fighting style. He would be a rather inviting character to the roster and would be more than welcome as the second 2D character other than Game & Watch. Though, he does have some major competition with the likes of Junior & Toad. There are many Mario choices and he is a great one, but he wouldn't be that likely due to the technology involved.

Want: 4
Likeliness: 3.1

Nominations: Medusa x3 and Daisy x2.

I love this idea, paper mario. great gameplay potential. however, there's a lot against him.

I'm going to say want at a 3, just becuase he's so cool.
entry barrier reasons, gonna list him at a 2.2 for possibility. his series isn't dead, with a new paper mario this november, and we do have two links. so idk for sure. here's to hoping.

shyguyx5

Want: .01: I loved Paper Mario and the sequel, but of all the characters for Smash I can't really get behind choosing a variation of one alreddy in, even if he had his own moveset.
Likely: 1.5: Popularity is very "cult" with a few big fans and lots of "eh". I can't really say he reps something new, nor can I imagine he would bring new people into smash or anything I think Sakurai looks for in a character short of "can fight".

Nominate: Lucina x5.

Paper Mario is a great series. I luved the N64 and the game cube games. Even though he is pretty cool, I would really care if he gig in or not. So for want, I'll give him a 2. And his likelihood depends on whether he's going to rep the Mario francise, or the Paper Mario one. If he reps the Mario francise, I think it's pretty unlikely unless Sakurai throws hi. In as a last minute clone lol. He has to compete with Toad, Junior, and even Waluigi.

Now if he reps his own series, than his chances are a lil higher. And plus he has a new game for the 3ds coming out. That boosts his chances also.

Want: 2
Likelihood: 2.07

Noms: Mii x4 Daisy x1

I would like to point out two things that I have seen.

1. Even if Paper Mario were to rep his own series, he'd still be considered a Mario character as well. This was the case with Wario in Brawl; he may rep his own series, but he's a Mario character in Sakurai's eyes as well.
So that point I keep making about Mario might not get a Newcomer? It also applies to Paper Mario even if he has a different icon.

2. The whole concept of Dr. Mario being an alternate costume? Already spat on by Sakurai. Dr. Mario is coming back as a seperate character or not at all. Trust me on this.

want:2
Liklihood: 1.87

Out of the 4 most likely mario reps to get in he is really uncertain and doesn't really excite but a couple of players. I don't think the problem is him possibly(not likely)being a clone than so much as adding another mario when the roster will be limited next smash.

Yoshimitsu: .27 uh, lets not

noms: 5x Skull kid