I
HATE this matchup. I fortunately have the ability to play with a ton of Olimars for practice on the matchup on a regular basis, including AndyG (arguably the best Olimar). It's interesting as if you would ask me/others like 6-9 months ago, it was widely determined that ROB won the matchup. That simply isn't the case anymore...
ROB's Advantages:
- Has a quick fthrow and bthrow that can get Olimar far off-stage if they DI wrong.
- Lasers and Gyros to hurt Olimar's recovery
- WoP Fair
- Can set up a wall to make it tough for Olimar to get in for a kill
- No "bad" stages
ROB's Disadvantages:
- Has a weak spot under hit
- Can't deal with Pikmin spam THAT well
- Has nothing to directly deal with Olimar's grabs
- Ledge camping isn't quite as useful in this matchup as it is in others
Opponent's Advantages:
- Can combo ROB from 0-41 (atleast) easily
- Can spam the crap out of ROB
- Pivot grab
- High priority attacks like nair and utilt
- Fire pikmin go through ROB's fire attacks
- usmash kills early
Opponent's Disadvantages:
- Dies earlier than ROB on average
- Lack luster recovery
- Multiple bad stages
What ROB should try to do:
Grab. While a grab alone won't do much, it helps lead into damage racking uairs, WoP fairs, getting Olimar offstage, uthrow to kill if he's at absurd percents. Camp - even though Olimar can out camp ROB, every percent you get on Olimar is worth more than every percent he gets on you because you live longer than he does. If you're at like 150%+ compared to a low percent Olimar, just sit back and camp. It won't matter if he tacks on another percent as it won't really change. He could kill you with usmash at 150%, so having it kill you at 250% changes nothing. In getting that 100%, if you can just get Olimar to like 60 or 80% from 30%, it's far worth it since you've brought Olimar from near un-killable percents to almost kill percents. If you aren't ready to camp like hell yet and waiting for opportunities to grab, stay away at all costs to avoid Olimar's high priority attacks and pivot grabs.
ROB should do all he can to gimp Olimar and kill at early percents.
How to do it:
To get grabs you have to play smart. You have to completely outplay the Olimar to get this perfectly. You need to read every single airdodge and spot dodge he does and punish for it. This will likely lead to a loss in the first match of a set for you to learn your opponent, but once you learn his pattern, you will have something on him in the subsequent matches. Follow Olimar has he falls to the ground and don't do anything. If he never air dodges, quickly land to a grab or dsmash (dsmash also punishes those who side dodge right when they land and it pops them up a little bit for more setups, or kills at high percents), or once the Olimar airdodges punish him when it's over - uair recommended, or nair to kill.
Similarly, to get the grabs you need to read the side dodges instead of air dodges. Glide tossing into Olimar can severely help get grabs.
To gimp Olimar, wait for the whistle or air dodge and continue to fair. If Olimar is kind of far out there, use your laser or gyro to stop his momentum. If you can time your laser to hit Olimar right after he uses his double jump (so he doesn't go anywhere and it's pretty much wasted) he's done. When Olimar's try to sink low thinking they are safe from being edgeguarded, a quick fast fall drop zone fair will ruin him.
How opponent can stop it:
If you keep too close to Olimar while following waiting to punish you can easily get hit by an aerial such as nair fair or bair, so be careful about that. The opponent needs to learn to never air dodge on his way down because that's when ROB has his opening. When ROB approached on the ground, Olimar can just pivot grab whatever ROB is ready to do if the Olimar predicts his movements (it's not hard). Olimar needs to rely less on dodging, and focus more on the offensive with grabs and camping with overB.
What Opponent should be trying to do:
Olimar should try to rack up damage as fast as possible then kill. Olimar needs to time his whistle armor perfectly and that will help his recovery by a lot. Then of course, Olimar should pivot grab. ROB can't do a single thing about it.
How they'll do it:
Olimar should rack up the damage with overB and skill with usmash. It's really not hard. Getting in for the usmash can sometimes be hard, but just being careful can help. Stealing ROB's gyro can help when spamming since you don't need physical moves to do so.
Olimar should only whistle armor when he knows ROB is going to attack. Remember that you can get a decent jump from upB if you have less Pikmin.
For pivot grabing, just do it. There's nothing smart about this. ROB approaches - just pivot grab.
How ROB can stop it:
ROB can't really stop the spam that well.
ROB can only avoid being killed by usmash by keeping away and camping, but in turn won't be able to be close to Olimar and kill him with grab setups.
ROB can trump over any recovery options Olimar has as described earlier.
ROB can't do a single thing against pivot grabs. Despite what people say, ftilt DOES NOT work. I can guarantee this.
Counterpicks (what ROB should pick)
- Rainbow Cruise
- Frigate Orpheon
- Delfino Plaza
- Brinstar (maybe)
Bans (what ROB should ban 1 via stage strike, 1 via personal ban)
- Castle Siege (though Olimars almost never choose it, but it helps them not be gimped)
- Luigi's Mansion (normally banned at tourneys anyway)
- Lylat Cruise
Preferred Neutral (what ROB wants)
- FD or BF (It depends on the opponent's style. If you need to camp to win, FD helps. If you need to read your opponent to win BF helps so you can read his platform techs for free fairs and uairs).
Ratio:
It's atleast 60:40 in Olimar's favor. Maybe 65:45 if the Olimar plays well. There is barely anything ROB can do to a perfect playing Olimar.