I agree with what DUB said about edgeguarding. Also, as DUB said, throws are very important in this matchup. It really puts pressure on the Falco so once you get through his wall of lasers, try to keep the pressure up and hold the momentum. Dont let him get away where he can reset the situation with lasers.
The reflecter can be annoying but you shouldnt really let the Falco benifit from it that much. Learn to mix it up and make him scared to use it after youve punished him several times for predicting wrong. After that, switch it up and start going for obvious forward GTs. After that, itll just become one big guessing game but youre the one with more options
Also, Falco has a pretty difficult time killing. If you read all his attempts, you should be able to survie to ~150% on average and maybe more. His kill moves are Usmash, Fsmash, Bair, and Dsmash. At higher percents, if he hits your shield with a dash attack, DONT PUT YOUR SHIELD DOWN. Ive learned from experience that even if you try to shield grab ASAP, he can cancel the dash attack into a Usmash and hit you first. I think you can grab him first if you powershield to grab immediately after but human reflexs arent that fast so its better to just shield the whole thing or dont shield at all. And dont try to shield grab afterward; the Usmash pushs you to far away to grab if he spaced it correctly. Usmash OoS is good to punish things like dash attack, Monkey Kick etc so watch out.
He doesnt really have any reliable setups besides lasers and bananas so it shouldnt be to hard to avoid his kill moves. Just remember how he can kill you and how to avoid them and you should be living longer than against most characters.
The chaingrab is really stupid. A grab at low percents and you take 37 damage (P1 said its 37 and I would trust him
) just like that (more if he ends with the gatling combo). And if he gets you to the edge, its a spike. It doesnt really help to just say 'Dont get grabbed' (look at the ICs lol) but there are some things you can do to avoid getting CG for the full damage.
1. Against campy Falcos, you can play more reserved near the beginning. Dont try to get close without tripping him first. Approach UNTIL you get the trip than go in more aggresive. You cant camp a campy Falco cause he'll do a much better job of it than you. If you do this, you either force the Falco to approach to grab (see the next section for what to do here) or you wait for him to slip up, no pun intended, and keep that pressure up.
2. If the Falco approachs, have two banana out at all times. One behind, and one in hand. I sometimes like to dribble back when I have the chance putting a banana in front of me while I pick up the one behind me. It works for me at least.
At middle/higher percents, Falcos can play a sortve guessing game ouof the Dthrow. They can spike you back donw with a Dair, grab again, Fsmash, Usmash etc. I personally see the Fsmash and Dair the most often. But its easy to just jump out of the smash and air dodge the Dair. Just watch him closely and react accordingly.
Remember, you have to change youre playstyle against Falco. If you go about it the wrong way, youre just gonna eat 37+ damage and possibly edgeguarded to death. Play more patient like you would against Marth until you get the oppourtunity you need to get in.
Ratio: 50:50 Even
EDIT: At the Sauce Boss, IIRC, all characters can now stage tech Falcos Dair so I think your right. Good thing to know