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Lucario vs. Marth (2) EXPORT

Timbers

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MARTH


Matchup:

40:60

What to avoid:

Fair does cancel and can easily lead into more traps and tech chases. And unless your recovery is extremely predictable, you probably won't be seeing dair much. If you recover low, Marth can go for the stage spike.

If you don't sweetspot the edge prepare to get uber punished.
His fair > our fair, for one. If you go into an aerial confrontation, the range on Marth's fair with just own you. He can chain them together, too. His bair is just as deadly, an both can kill. His uair outranges dair but we outprioritise him, but if he's smart he'll be able to handle dairs fairly easily with uair, usmash and utilt. His nair has good knockback too. This isn't one for an aerial Lucario, IMO.
He has much better SH options, you're going to be using shield for quite the time (if you're smart, you shouldn't get hit by SB, so the only more viable option for him is grab).
On terms of grab game, he definitely has more POTENTIAL. This doesn't mean necessarily that he has better options/better grab game. If you know how to DI, you shouldn't get hit by half of the "fthrow -> tippered aerial" jazz unless it's very early in the game.
Lets start off by saying his Fair out ranges anything you have in the air and marths love to use this move. This and Nair auto cancel and can be followed up into anything fast (mainly Dancing blade). If the marth know's he is lacking options while you put pressure on him he can use Dolphin Slash (UpB) to get himself out of heavy situations. He is faster in almost every aspect and can KO you pretty early.
I think if rolling was applied to possibly Falco or something then it'd be more concerning in Marth's case, but Luc's only CQ game is really just utilt. A low priority, low damaging utilt. And as much as I want to say it's good for setups, there's really not a whole lot Luc can do to Marth in the air when Marth goes defensive. It's a good move and I recommend it be used commonly in this matchup, but rolling into Marth to use it is just not the greatest of ideas. Yes a roll is good every now and then, but encouraging it moreso in this match than others is not something I'd recommend.
How to win:

use shield intelligently, because you're going to do a lot of stuff transitioning out of it for punishment, don't keep yourself in his good spacing, get underneath and juggle if you can
Aura Sphere is your friend here, and I reccommend having a charged one handy at all times
Rolling can be extremely helpful in this match-up, but don't abuse it. If Marth is being predictable with fair camping, don't be afraid to roll behind and jab him or something. Lucario's roll is fast enough for this to work. If you do successfully roll behind his fair, a retreating uair may follow or he'll just land and reset. Never roll behind a grounded Marth, though. You'll end eating a dancing blade, dsmash, or upb -- all of which hurt.
btw underneath him is the best place to be, but remember that a good marth can still space a fair to tip underneath (fair has a good arc).
10) Speed is important, Tilts are 100% nessessary through this whole match.

11) When it comes down too it, the match up becomes kind og like a guessing game. Try to read him at all times and stop what he's doing. Be 1 step ahead of the game.
Helpful tips:

Now on the rolling subject, he has amazing punish options if you don't do it right (DB, bair at high percents, the occasional dtilt/ turnaround grab). You don't use roll as a solid countermeasure for his SH fair, doing so will give yourself a world of hurt. Do this if he doesn't do retreating fair or if he does a nair, and sometimes if he does an empty hop (he's usually expecting that you stay in your position, expecting a fair, so that he can FF to a grab). Anything other than these categories will get you slashed (unless he whiffs/landlags, which will hardly happen).
1) Marth has a grab combo from 0 on a lot of characters, You happen to be one of the few that doesn't get combo'd. If he grabs at 0 he will most likely F-throw to Fair.

2) His U-Air at low percents combo's into any move he has. Be aware that he does have ways to hit you from 0 to high 30's.

3) Try not to chase him off the map. Its a No No. Only edge guard by grabbing the edge, making him non-sweet spot the ledge.

4) Although his Dolphin slash comes out on frame 1 and has Invincibility frames at the beginning, It has a horrible cool down lag. If you see a D-Slash comming just avoid and punish with something decent.

5) marths will short hop Fair alot for aggression. If you know he is going to SH Fair, Space and Fsmash at the farthest range possible. He can't get into the range unless he wants to risk getting hit, and also if he does decide to back off he can't run up and punish you. Try to use this as a decent surprise because he can also counter.

6) Dancing blade kills you. His fastest ground move does about 14~ dmg. Kind of lame right? He will punish almost every mistake you do with it until you are a decent dmg.

7) Marth wants you off the edge. Period. He will try to get you off the edge as fast as possible.

8) Marths edge guard game is amazing. From Gimps to just standing on stage, he can almost punish every option you have on the edge.

9)******This one is Big. From me playing with Pierce all the time, you pick up some dumb **** that make you wanna kill sakurai. Marth has a Grab Trap against Lucario. Here I will go into further explanation:

When Marth grabs you, his floor release does not release that far against Lucario. You have no move fast enough that can stop Marth from regrabbing you.

So in other words, If Marth grabs you, He can pummle until you release and then he can regrab for a pummle again. Your only option is to roll out.

So like your thinking "Hey at least I can roll out" Well yea you can, but now it becomes a Tech. Chase because He knows you can roll out of it. See the point?
Just to make it clear because I just read it. Just because you have a projectile doesn't mean you shold abuse it so much. Yea, its nice and all... But its easily stopped. marth covers more ground then an MK. You will prob only get 1 AS thrown inbetween the time he can rush you, and if not 1 then maybe 2.
Aura sphere and fsmash are absolutely vital to this matchup, we simply wont win without them.
Marth's fair outprioritizes full charged AS at any percent when stock buffs aren't involved. I never tested if it's possible at 1 stock disadvantage and 2 stock.
Stages:

Good counterpicks would be not Battlefield, Jungle Japes, not Battlefield, Smashville, and not Battle field. JJ is pretty rough on his weak vertical recovery, while Smashville is a fairly even stage in general. I would say FD, but it seems to me that that stage practically begs for gimps. Then again, you have wallcling, so this might not be a poor choice either.
Avoid stages with platforms. (IE: Battle Field, Yoshi, Lylat) and counter pick with stages with no playform or 1 (IE: Smashville, FD) Best counter pick is Frigate because of the missing ledge. Marths do not like that stage at all and its easy to mess with the spacing there.

Disclaimer: This thread is made for the sole purpose of keeping matchup discussing clean and organized. If people wish to discuss a past matchup, they may do so in this thread without cluttering the current discussion.
 
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