I know I haven't been in the scene for months, but I've always felt like this matchup is a 65:35. I have much D3 experience against a solid and very defensive D3 player.
Has anyone mentioned that when a gordo comes out it also comes out a little faster? That's what makes waddles so incredibly dangerous. There is a significant chance that even though you're doing what should be safe, you get nailed and KOed by a gordo because of that extra speed it comes with. It forces you to take a risk or go defensive and try (and fail) to make D3 approach. I really don't think there is ANY way to make D3 approach on a flat stage. His waddles cancel out your spheres and linger on the field to harass you, until you're forced to hit them away or roll/take to the air, which often isn't a good position when he knows it's coming.
A D3 that is sitting in place and shielding is like a brick wall to Luc, from my experiences. Seriously, what can you do against a D3 that's shielding (who doesn't make bad mistakes). Ground options are almost 100% shut out by ftilt, aerial approaches leave you open to a chaingrab. You can mess around with AS charge and b-reversal, then what does that give you... 10-15% maybe? If you're lucky you'll be able to pop him into the air and get some more hits on him. While the risk you take is a spiffy 20-35% from a chaingrab across the stage, followed by his edgeguarding. The main beef I have with the "use mindgames" stance is that yes, you can and probably MUST use mindgames to get in on him, but even so, the odds of success are stacked against you with each attempt, AND the risk/reward is in his favor. This gets a little better when you've got more % on you and get a nice damage boost to catch up, but it's still painful.
I agree that D3 has some trouble getting the kill. Were it not for that I'd say the match is an 80:20, srsly. The aura boost and solid DI is what gives you any hope of making it out alive because it makes the risk/reward less unfavorable to Luc, and especially, your AS becomes more of a threat. Unfortunately, Luc definitely has more trouble killing than D3 does. AS is probably your best tool for kills, if you can get it fresh when you're at decent %. Fsmash... maybe... rarely... there are times when it works for sure, but you have to be really careful. bair is a good tool. It doesn't beat his bair, but when he's grounded and you can fake him into dropping his shield it'll send him offstage so you can tag on damage and maybe get him far enough for the kill.
D3 doesn't seem to have too much trouble recovering. Between fair, bair, he can make it tough to get extra hits in, and if you're waiting onstage to AS him, the SA on his upB lets him eat an AS in exchange for not dying in several situations. If he's forced to upB and can't get to the ledge, that's your chance to go aggr on him. Grab the ledge if the spacing/timing is right so that he can't grab it, then hop back onstage and guard like your life depends on it... because it does. You don't want go back to a neutral state against D3. "Neutral" state is in his favor, which is probably one of the strongest reasons that I feel this is a 63:35.
It will usually result in taking 20+% from a chain grab. But im sure you guys already knew that
