Melee Match-Up Chart (NTSC) [Update 008 - 09.09.28]

worldjem7 · May 17, 2009

PLEASE READ THE WHOLE THING THOROUGHLY SO YOU DON'T ASK STUPID QUESTIONS.

Any issues related to anything about the rating system in place should be directly sent to me rather than be posted on the thread.

The thread is meant to discuss the match-ups ONLY.

It's NOT meant for you to dispute the format in place as it is not even up for discussion.

Keep your complaints OUT of the thread so that ACTUAL discussion can ensue.
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=8522319&postcount=2552

Main contributors for base chart:
RaynEX
unknown522
Europhoria
Kirbykaze

Each match-up is determined by weighing each character's abilities and what they can do to each other assuming the two players are of equal skill level at high level play. This means that we assume that both players know of every single match-up and play each match-up in the most optimal way.

Adopted from the Street Fighter community, the match-ups shown are when two characters play 10 games against each other on neutral stages and seeing how many games they'd win.
Match-ups on counter-pick stages will be part of the explanation of each match-up. Explanations will be listed below the chart.

The rating on the right side of the chart is the sum of all match-ups for the character on the left minus the total number of characters times the number for an even match-up.

Ex.: sum of sheik's match-ups is 192 so: 192-(26*5) = 62

Updated
Groups of characters on this chart are divided by uncommon large differences between two adjacent characters. This number can change from chart to chart, but will always be apparent. This is merely to make it easier to read the chart.

The "Difference" column shows the difference between the character beside the number and the character above the number. Sheik has no one above him so he has no difference.

Main Contributors for Updates:
- unknown522 Various
- Kirbykaze Various
- RaynEX Fox
- Miggz Fox
- Idea Purin
- knihT Samus
- Skler Link
- Taj278 Mewtwo

Update 008 - 09.09.28

Update 006 Match-Up Explanations

Helpful posts towards match-ups:

Sheik vs Purin:
KirbyKaze
Idea
Kirbykaze

Fox vs Purin:
Miggz
RaynEX
unknown522

Marth/Falco vs Samus:
knihT

Link vs Mewtwo:
Skler
Taj278
Skler
Taj278
Skler
Taj278
Skler

The following counts how many kinds of match-ups each character has. This is used to break ties.

T.G.M = Total Good Match-Ups
T.E.M. = Total Even Match-Ups
T.B.M. = Total Bad Match-Ups

"Even" means "all even match-ups not including the ditto."

Update 008- 09.09.28

I'm looking for any and all input from knowledgeable players to help debate any match-up that may seem suspicious. This is not supposed to be a "set-in-stone" chart.

I'd like to make this as accurate as possible to the current metagame.

idea · May 17, 2009

first post!

didn't read anything yet =D =D

TheZhuKeeper · May 17, 2009

Different tier list.

Marth not top tier?!

EDIT: Edit nvm I see. Ranked by points.

EDIT: I personally don't think top / high tier have 100 - 0 matchups against the low tiers. It's pretty inaccurate to say top / high tier completely dominate all the low tiers to the same extent. I mean, Bowser does better against Fox than say Sheik / Falco, Roy does better against Fox / Falco than say Sheik / Marth etc...

Pi · May 17, 2009

Question:

Are you wanting more realistic factors in this chart, or can we include like, chaingrabs and stuff
I believe ganon has a CG on falco/fox but it's difficult to pull off to high high %'s?
Things like that, I mean.

Also, stuff like falco's pillars
foxes shinedash
uptilt locks
rest combo's

things that rack up a whole **** load of % if performed correctly, if the players are of equal skill then theoretically these things (if they factor in DI) are gonna come down 50/50, meaning 50% of the time player 1 is going to correctly predict player 2's DI

Or are we looking at, player 1 predicts player 2's di perfectly always, so this character has an advantage because he has this ability (disregarding DI)

INSANE CARZY GUY · May 17, 2009

100% win for fox vs pichu? all pichu needs is one good move and get A grab so it should be like 80% and pichu vs the ice climbers might need to be chaned because pichu is very hard to chain and and the ice climberss work out of their shields a lot and it only takes A fair to grab them out of their shield. But the ice climbers still **** hard really you need to even out the pichu stuff A little more.

It's A pity I can't put any more input once this is moved to the melee boards

Wang. · May 17, 2009

Needs more colours.

Oracle · May 17, 2009

A bunch of the low tier matchups are horribly off. Besides, Phanna already did this, but better. (though a little outdated, it's mostly still true)

EDIT: This is an awful list. It has marth 50-50 with DK and Gannon

INSANE CARZY GUY · May 17, 2009

Wang. said:
Needs more colours.

invert the colors or trip on acid.

marf should be on top like the hoe he is not sheik and sheik has at least one bad match-up

EDIT: nice EDIT: 1 w1nged @ngel

Oracle · May 17, 2009

carzy is right, sheik loses to fox/flaco

SpaceFalcon · May 17, 2009

Haha I wouldn't call Fox vs samus even... there are to many ways to abuse samus through light hit aerials, all her moves lag so u-smash is basically pie and she can't fly away like jiggz l0l.

Anyway just because Samus one of better match-ups happens to be Fox, doesn't make fox go 50/50 on her.

john! · May 17, 2009

How exactly are you going to determine matchups? Doing it purely by tournament results would put Puff, Marth, Falco, and Fox on top, and doing it purely hypothetically would put Fox, Falco, and ICs on top.

Strange as it may seem, after nearly a decade, I don't think the metagame is evolved enough to make matchups as accurate as 55/45 or 75/25. You should just rate 0-9, and put "this is how many games will be won on average in a set of 9", then leave the middle diagonal spaces blank. No 2 unique characters are exactly equal. One always has an advantage over the other, no matter how slight. That's the basis behind the existence of the tier list.

So, just multiply each matchup number by the defending character's spot on the tier list, add them up, and that's your character's strength.

Vulcan55 · May 17, 2009

This is soo bad.

idea · May 17, 2009

more constructive criticism plx? it's open to changes, and there was a lot of disagreement in deciding on a bunch of these anyway =P

i agree with zhu for instance, too many 10-0s.

worldjem7 · May 18, 2009

Yes, please...

If you're not going to contribute to the chart then don't bother posting.

Also, make sure you read the first post thoroughly before posting questions that already have answers.

I have RaynEX, unknown522, and Kirbykaze here with me and we've since updated the chart without that many 10-0s. This will be put up later.

JFox · May 18, 2009

I like what you are attempting here, but the biggest problem i see is that there is a huge lack of knowledge about matchups as you go down the tier list. You end up just using the inaccurate mentality "well this character is a high tier, this one is a low tier, so the low tier stands no chance" when in reality that's often not the case. For example, bowser does SIGNIFICANTLY better vs spacies than he does vs Peach. If you were to ask someone who knew bowser's matchups, they could give you FAR better insight. To assume that the matchup is bad is really just appealing to your own convenience.

So bottom line- go talk to people like Anther, Taj, DJ Nintendo, etc. and ask them what their opinions are. Theres no doubt that those people on the list are knowledgable, especially about their main characters, but theres no way you can really get adequate insight from them about lower tiers.

worldjem7 · May 18, 2009

JFox said:
I like what you are attempting here, but the biggest problem i see is that there is a huge lack of knowledge about matchups as you go down the tier list. You end up just using the inaccurate mentality "well this character is a high tier, this one is a low tier, so the low tier stands no chance" when in reality that's often not the case. For example, bowser does SIGNIFICANTLY better vs spacies than he does vs Peach. If you were to ask someone who knew bowser's matchups, they could give you FAR better insight. To assume that the matchup is bad is really just appealing to your own convenience.

So bottom line- go talk to people like Anther, Taj, DJ Nintendo, etc. and ask them what their opinions are. Theres no doubt that those people on the list are knowledgable, especially about their main characters, but theres no way you can really get adequate insight from them about lower tiers.

I agree completely. When we put this together we honestly didn't know the lower tiers well enough to put an accurate number down for them we just tried our best at looking what each character could do with what knowledge we had. Which is why I made this thread, to draw in such players as the ones you mentioned. I've wanted to get in touch with Cactuar and Mango recently about this chart but, I haven't been able to pin them down long enough to have a serious chat with them about match-ups. So, I'm making it public so that they can answer at their leisure without holding up production and discussion of this chart. I also feel that in a public environment, bias is much easier to spot and refute than in a private conversation.

My first goal was just to get something done. To get SOME sort of insight for all match-ups so that they could be discussed among the more knowledgeable players for better insight.

Now what I'd like is for players, such as the ones you mentioned, to come to this thread and give input so that this can grow into a more accurate chart.

halcyon.days · May 18, 2009

I don't really play much Sheik but to my knowledge, isn't Sheik both a decent Peach and Falcon counter?

Yet you have Peach lower than Marth, and Marth and Falcon's number the same. While I'm not arguing that Sheik does good against Marth, it should be changed (unless I'm completely wrong).

Also, I think Fox should have a slight advantage against Sheik, and also against Falco (but against Falco it's debatable if they're even or not. For example, first page of
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=233521 ).

dudutsai · May 18, 2009

I would say Jiggs vs Fox is more 15-85
vs Falco 45-55
vs Marth 30-70
vs cfalcon 50-50

I would disagree with other parts too, but since I'm not too good at this game, I'm by no means any authority over players like Raynex...
I do play jiggs tho and that's gotta count for something

HT F8 · May 18, 2009

Do work woldjem7 :D

Umm I thought Puff did well vs Sheik because there's tons of ways to Rest? I could be wrong though. ^_^

dudutsai said:
I would say Jiggs vs Fox is more 15-85
vs Falco 45-55
vs Marth 30-70
vs cfalcon 50-50

15-85? Well you can Uthrow Rest and he can Uthrow Uair. Personally, I don't think the matchup is that ****. D:

30-70 Marf? Didn't M2K say he thinks Puff counters Marth or something? lol. He prob said his Marf.

I love being an ignorant noob. :D

Can't wait to see how this progresses when we get more heads.<3

Strong Badam · May 18, 2009

F8 iS RiPPiN said:
Umm I thought Puff did well vs Sheik because there's tons of ways to Rest? I could be wrong though. ^_^

meh, if you DI properly it's impossible to be comboed into rest. the only danger then would be getting a grab crouched, but that isn't too hard to avoid either.

15-85? Well you can Uthrow Rest and he can Uthrow Uair.

u-throw rest doesn't work if the opponent knows of something called DI.

IMO, a lot of the DK matchups don't make sense. Fox and DK is 60-40 at worst, 50-50 at best. ganon and Samus are def 50/50 , and Sheik is at least 70-30, if not 65-35.
this is a very interesting idea and I'd love to see it become accurate.

dudutsai · May 18, 2009

F8 iS RiPPiN said:
Do work woldjem7 :D

Umm I thought Puff did well vs Sheik because there's tons of ways to Rest? I could be wrong though. ^_^

15-85? Well you can Uthrow Rest and he can Uthrow Uair. Personally, I don't think the matchup is that ****. D:

30-70 Marf? Didn't M2K say he thinks Puff counters Marth or something? lol. He prob said his Marf.

I love being an ignorant noob. :D

Can't wait to see how this progresses when we get more heads.<3

Well I think vs Sheik is easier, but it's definitely in Sheik's favor
Jiggs vs Fox is pretty ****. Fox can outeverything Jigglypuff
M2k says Jiggs counters his Marth

TLMSheikant · May 18, 2009

Wow...the Young Link matchups are so haywire. Fox and falco are hard but not an unwinnable 90-10 o_O.

U seem to be basing matchups on tiers...which u shouldnt do.

Europhoria · May 18, 2009

This is where all the low tiers come in and ***** about how their character is better then having a bunch of 10-0s... and where the fox players say "lol laser camp > you"

Bizzarro Flame · May 18, 2009

The match-ups for Ganon is inaccurate.

Ganon and Falco is not 30-70 along with Ganon and Fox being 30-70. Ganon against Falco should be either 45-55 or 50-50 since Falco has such a gimpy recovery. The match-up between Ganon and Fox is not so inaccurate, but they should be at least 40-60.

Ganon and Jigglypuff is definitely wrong. 45-55? come on! Although Ganon has great space capabilities, Jigglypuff can space just as well or even better. Also, Ganon has a much bigger hitbox than Puff, allowing Puff to **** the **** out of Ganon after its U-air or anything that pops Ganon up. In addition to Ganon's gimpy recovery which Jigglypuff can also ****, I think that the match up should be 30-70 or 35-65.

I have a lot more criticism about Ganon's match-ups; however, thank you for your contributions though. I can tell that you put much effort into this. Just follow people's advice on how to change your match-ups. Have a nice day =).

omnicloud7strife · May 18, 2009

worldjem7 said:
WORDS

I like the idea.

Couple things, really quick.

First: Each character, if played perfectly, is crazy **** good. But, that's perfect, and impossible.

Second: I think that you'd need to actually need the following to happen: Find the two best pros of each character. Make them agree to sit down, and play... eh.... nearly 3k matches, including a ditto. That's 100 matches per character, with the best of each character. Now, normally, that's called a tournament, but this would be more accurately a "HOLY ****". Record the results of each match. Have them switch off ever 5, to a different person (so they can't read each other and end up just standing there, locked in an epic mindgame). Repeat till the chart works.

The real issue here is, who's super pro Pichu? Super pro Kirby? Sure, they're low, but some people have to love playing them. I wish I was pro enough to go "so and so counters so and so" but the fact is, I'm not. I'm a scrub with my Fox, and he's really my best. I'm working on improving him, but it's tough.

Third (yes, there's more!): The chart is nice. It's a flow chart. How lovely. How about the reasons why each character is particularly good against others? Not just, "Jiggs can uThrow-Rest a Fox" but, things like, "When that fails, these things allow Jiggs to beat a Fox, but Fox can do blah to get out of it, and then combo to **** Jiggs face off." Explain how you came to each decision, not just saying that you had some matches.

Now, I'm not here to say that the pros you have aren't great. I've had the pleasure of getting my *** beat in by raynEx. And, I know the rest of those guys are good. But, this kind of complex calculation can't be done by four or five people. You need to know what happens when people DI wrong and when they DI right. You need to be able to say what stages are good for each of these matches.

That brings me to 4: Stages are important. Positioning on stages is important, too. You need to include which stages you tested this on. The perk of number 2 before is that it won't matter, after a point, cause you'll play on all of them. But, when doing 10 matches, each stage picked counts. Don't forget to use counter pick stages, even ones that sometimes are banned. You gotta have a full variety, or else it won't be as accurate as possible.

Okay, that's it for now. I might think of more later. But, again, nice idea! And, good luck!

'Fro · May 18, 2009

Bizzarro Flame said:
The match-ups for Ganon is inaccurate.

Ganon and Falco is not 30-70 along with Ganon and Fox being 30-70. Ganon against Falco should be either 45-55 or 50-50 since Falco has such a gimpy recovery.

And what about the rest of the match where Falco's on the stage?

Bizzarro Flame · May 18, 2009

'Fro said:
And what about the rest of the match where Falco's on the stage?

Ganon has great spacing abilities and can tech-chase very well depending on a player. Ganon has a good advantage over Falco's depending on what stages. Final Destination definitely works against Ganon since Ganon only has walking/running/jumping as his only mode of transportation while other stages allow him to perfect waveland throughout the whole stage such as Dreamland and Yoshi's Story. Of course, Falco has a good advantage by having a great pressure game using lasers and pillars; however, one mistake by the Falco player, the Ganon player ***** his/her stock.

Just a fun fact: Did you know that it actually takes only 2-3 of Ganon's moves to take Falco's stock that quickly? (B-air near the edge, another B-air off the stage)

Do you ever watch professional Ganons (Renth, Kage, Linguini, 1233, Chadd, Magus) going up against professional Falcos? If not, then you might not be too familiar with the match-ups. Maybe it should be just 40-60 just to be safe, but 30-70 is just way too inaccurate in my opinion. Ask any other Ganon pros, as mentioned above, and they'll give you similar match-up ratios as mine.

Fletch · May 18, 2009

Fox and Falco do not 100-0 near the amount of characters you have listed, a lot of the low tiers can actually pull decent stuff on them. Sheik might be another story though, her matchups look okay but I'd put her at a slight disadvantage to both the spacies.

KAOSTAR · May 18, 2009

why arent they ranked by current tier list?

and like everyone said the low tiers are pretty inaccurate

I see its by points but my guess is that this is inaccurate because its incomplete

Mogwai · May 18, 2009

lol @ Sheik being even vs. Spacies...

a chart like this will never get approval because the numbers mean different things to different people and matchups are way more subjective than anyone cares to admit.

SpaceFalcon · May 18, 2009

So it's decided, this chart sucks. You guys should have done more homework before posting a johnned up one.

pockyD · May 18, 2009

why'd you call them 'koopa' and 'purin'?

and aside from the fact that there are plenty of problems with it, there are and will always be far too many issues with "rating" 500+ matchups on a completely arbitrary rating scale between 20-30 different local communities that never play each other, with the best players not even giving their input and especially without a focused discussion for each individual matchup

so many issues that i believe it's not worth doing, as a faulty chart is more counterproductive than no chart at all

and for matchups you blatantly admit to not "knowing" (as if 80% of the matchups are even close to being "knowable"), why put a number at all? leave it blank until someone who DOES know can fill it in, instead of taking baseless guesses

JPOBS · May 18, 2009

samus doesnt go even with spacies.

and imo, doc does not go 35,30,30 vs sheik/fox/falco/jiggs/peach (aka get ***** hard)

idea · May 18, 2009

k, the only matchups i feel knowledgeable about...=P

dudutsai said:
I would say Jiggs vs Fox is more 15-85
vs Falco 45-55
vs Marth 30-70
vs cfalcon 50-50

fox is not THAT bad for jiggs...it's definitely her worst matchup but it's not that bad at all. since we're thinking top level of play, fox is gonna die pretty much whenever he uses firefox. and he gets rested easily enough. but then fox has lasers, movement speed, and faster-starting aerials. and shine. so i'd say...between 65-35 and 75-25.

vs. marth it's a spacing war...so marth wins that due to having a sword, but probably not as bad as 70-30 as long as they're both playing frustratingly carefully. and jiggs has the advantage of edgeguarding. 60-40 sounds about right to me, in marth's favour.

falcon-jiggs i say is in jiggs' favour, but hey, we don't have any top-level falcons around here. she just seems to outprioritize him in general, on top of getting easy rests and edgeguards. falcon can combo her but...comboing jigglypuff means he gets some upairs or dthrow knee. i'd put this at about about 60-40 for jiggs.

F8 iS RiPPiN said:
Do work woldjem7 :D

Umm I thought Puff did well vs Sheik because there's tons of ways to Rest? I could be wrong though. ^_^

30-70 Marf? Didn't M2K say he thinks Puff counters Marth or something? lol. He prob said his Marf.

eh. sheik can use needles and bair to make the matchup kind of similar to marth-jiggs. except marth doesn't have a projectile <_< i think sheiks often play as if they were a fantastic broken character, cause they usually are, but jigglypuff has ridiculous stuff she can do too, so the sheik has to play a lot safer than they're probably used to. i mean, just this weekend i remember grabbing kirbykaze's sheik after a downsmash hit my shield. that probably shouldn't work.

also if the sheik grabs less, you can't crouch rest them as easily. seems like sheik just really needs to stay in the air vs. jiggs.

but i still say sheik-puff is about even. could go 5 points in either direction, really. if i had to pick one way or the other i'd say puff wins.

and as for marth...haha, maybe. m2k (who searches his name probably) hates jiggs...and hungrybox (who searches his name probably) also likes the marth-jiggs matchup a lot, but he's never been very specific about why.

JPOBS · May 18, 2009

Idea said:
falcon-jiggs i say is in jiggs' favour, but hey, we don't have any top-level falcons around here. she just seems to outprioritize him in general, on top of getting easy rests and edgeguards. falcon can combo her but...comboing jigglypuff means he gets some upairs or dthrow knee. i'd put this at about about 60-40 for jiggs.

SS's falcon ***** mango's puff.

That may only be two players, but given that its MANGO and SS has one of the best falcons, i think its safe to say the matchup is atleast even or maybe in falcons favor.

Binx · May 18, 2009

Rather than complain about the list I'm gonna go ahead and just add a few small corrections to the character I am most knowledgeable about. First one being Peach, at a high level of play Ice Climbers go I'm gonna say 40 / 60 vs Peach it's no longer our worst match up, Marth should be probably 25 / 75 vs Samus its close to 45 / 55, just most IC players aren't patient enough to play the match correctly / grab to often vs her. Fox is closer to 40 / 60, and Falco should be even Chu and Shiz go about even and they are the best representation of both characters.

I'm gonna say that Sheik should have a disadvantage vs Fox ~40 / 60 and a slight disadvantage vs Falco 45 / 55, Sheik also has a slight advantage on Ice Climbers when played at a high level, the chain throw in no way negates her spacing and ability to needle and platform camp us. again 55 / 45 in favor of Sheik.

Good luck.

pockyD · May 18, 2009

JPOBS said:
SS's falcon ***** mango's puff.

no it doesn't

that said, mango is straight up a much better player than SS (and everyone, really :laugh:

), so the fact that SS plays him close is pretty telling... either for the matchup, or for mango messing around :laugh:

JPOBS · May 18, 2009

pockyD said:
no it doesn't

that said, mango is straight up a much better player than SS (and everyone, really ), so the fact that SS plays him close is pretty telling... either for the matchup, or for mango messing around

west coast always says that mango's puff cant beat SS's falcon, which is why he goes fox/faclo/anyone else.

agreed on the second statement though.

pockyD · May 18, 2009

that's just trash talk, which is why people shouldn't go on hearsay

JPOBS · May 18, 2009

indeed

tenchars

Melee Match-Up Chart (NTSC) [Update 008 - 09.09.28]

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Hostile Takeover

Super Elite

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