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My personal guide for prediction.

Tommy_G

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Ok, have you ever told yourself "I do really well on (abc) day, but then on (xyz) day, I get *****."
Have you ever asked "How do I get kill moves so well on certain stocks and struggle so much on others?"
What about "Where the hell are these amazing combos coming from and why can't I consistantly recreate them?"

Sorry to tell you, but your playstyle is based off of guessing.

There is a major difference between guessing and predicting. There are tons of different methods of fighting that put you at really good positions, but

there are also the ones that put you in bad positions. On your good days, you do mostly the good ones; likewise for the bad. When you're Guessing, you don't have any idea why your style was working or wasn't working. While predicting, you can see where you messed up because of a wrong option you took. Guessing is playing a chance game. In Brawl, Falco's chances in guessing are not good at all with his weak damage hits and lack of kill moves.

So, you're probably asking yourself, "How the hell do I stop guessing and start predicting?"

I've tried to break these things up into to learnable sections. Not knowing why I was have good and bad days frusterated me enough to re-evaluate what was going on. These are all my opinion from my experiences, take them as you will.

[highlight]1) Learning to see patterns in play habits.[/highlight]
This is broken up in many different parts, but there are three important sections.
  • From where is your opponent is approaching(or camping from?)
    1. Is it usually an aerial approach?
    2. Is it a running shield approach?
    3. Is it a running grab approach? etc etc etc
  • What are their primary methods of approaching(or camping?)
    1. Shield, Dodge, Grab, Specials, Smashes, Tilts, Aerials, and Jabs are their options. Learn how they all work.
  • What does the opponent do when they're under pressure(being attacked/approached-even a simple run animation reflex)
    1. Shield-grab, Shield-OOS option, roll, spot dodge, jump, sit in their shield, or even attack are the majority of reflex
    2. When they're in the air, empty short hops are nice to bait air dodges into Fsmashes. If they don't air dodge, then Falco can double jump and get away.
I'll elaborate more on this as time goes by(including editing for Falco main specifics), but these are the positions one should observe (while their playing or not) and try to figure out what the playing habits are. Keep in mind, the higher caliper player means more mix up and less predictability.

[highlight]2) Knowing what the best option is in every prediction set up.[/highlight]
For example, if Cpt Falcon threw someone forward and that someone air dodged, Falcon gets a free grab when predicted. Falcon also gets a short hop forward falcon punch in the same prediction(if it doesn't work, pretend it does for the example.) Which option would you choose?

Second example, as Falco, if you jab someone and predict them to shield after it, the best option would be to grab them. You can't Fsmash them for that prediction because the shield they were doing anyways would block it or you would get shield grabbed during the beginning animation of the Fsmash.

This is obviously all Falco specific. Later on we'll discuss different options for different situations.

[highlight]3)Actually implementing these options in play.[/highlight]
Learning to deal with the stress of making educated guesses all of the time is important for your growth as a player. You're not always going to get it right, so have a back up strategy in case it falls through. Try not to stray from smart options into easy options because you messed up a prediction. Learn what annoys the opponent and use it(in other words, your back-up strategy). It will make them more predictable, making life for you a hell of a lot easier. If you've done everything else right, and this prediction doesn't put you in an extremely bad position, then go for it.

I will try to keep this thread going with good setups and other important parts to this aspect of the game. Seeing the Falco self rate thread and all of the posts on the Falco boards, make me think Falco's are too reliable on technical items and weird gimmicks.(splat) I'd like to see more of, "Wow I just got owned by a Falco." not "Wow, I got owned by lasers."

[highlight]Edit Update.[/highlight]

One should never be going for predictions all of the time. A player needs to stay back until they see an opportunity. A player also needs to apply pressure when they're staying back. This strategy should be safe for the most part until a prediction is made. Laser camping until their shield is low is a good pressure strategy.

Don't get me wrong. I don't mean camp until you see one opportunity, hit once, then run back(unless you like that.) People are allowed to attack close ranged and throw in multiple predictions. You don't need to hit the opponent either while distance pressuring. Wolf's back air wall is a good distance pressure strategy for him.
 

Tommy_G

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good stuff tommyG. You seem pretty pro from the way you talk and stuff around the forums lol.
I seem to think so but I havent played in a very long time. I'm a bit out of the loop with the gimmicks but the break from it allowed me to reestablish a solid playstyle.

It's not guessing, it's educated guessing.
Thats kinda funny, I was making a personal prediction that someone was going to nit-pick that part.
 

Typ_Ex

Smash Lord
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im guessing this would be a good guide for aggro falcos. this is how i play and probably about how every aggro plays. people who don't play predict, camp. in my opinion anyway.
 

gunterrsmash01

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being adaptive rather than reactive is what seperates a TOP player from the rest. great guide
 

#HBC | ZoZo

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This was exactly what I needed, I decided to start predicting and exploiting holes more about a week ago.

You're godsent.
 

Vlade

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being adaptive rather than reactive is what seperates a TOP player from the rest. great guide
This is exactly what I have learnt this year so far, and now I can actually make sense of Mookierah's huge essay.

It's about being PROACTIVE, not reactive. It is up to you to make your opponent play reactively.
 

Marcbri

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being adaptive rather than reactive is what seperates a TOP player from the rest. great guide
QFT.


Nice post, predicting is really important to improve with Falco, a prediction I really like is knowing how the opponent will DI when you Dthrow at mid/high %. you can rack more damage or even kill early if done well :p
 

Teran

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This is an excellent guide.

The quantum leap in skill comes from the realisation of this fact. Great read Tommy.
 

Tommy_G

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Wow, i see guessing part a lot in the way i play.
Thanks Tommy G! I'm learning a lot from this.
This is why I wrote it. A lot of people guess and don't even know what they're doing.

Nice little trick that shows action is always faster than reaction, Against Snake, when he does a down throw and sits in his shield, do the normal get straight up, turn and grab him. It's funny, Snake clearly has more time than you to grab, but doesn't. Be careful though, they'll start to predict it.

Anyways, this thread is why experienced melee players are better than new upcoming brawl players, for now. They already knew this information from melee.
 

§witch

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Anyways, this thread is why experienced melee players are better than new upcoming brawl players, for now. They already knew this information from melee.
Precisely. And this is even more true because of the fact that having fast hands won't get you half as far as it could in melee, it's all about prediction and punishing.
 

Hawks go Caw

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Super helpful. Now that so many, including myself, are beginning to differentiate between guessing and predicting, is there a certain method of practicing or certain ways to set up prediction? Just jumping into a match and saying, "Okay, this time I'll predict!" doesn't seem effective.
 

Tommy_G

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Super helpful. Now that so many, including myself, are beginning to differentiate between guessing and predicting, is there a certain method of practicing or certain ways to set up prediction? Just jumping into a match and saying, "Okay, this time I'll predict!" doesn't seem effective.
Do what I said in the first post. You don't predict out of nothing. Learn to notice play habits, then learn which moves are the best moves to punish those play habits. Example, youre not going to punish a spot dodge spammer by grabbing a lot, instead try charging a smash attack. If you say, "Ok, now im predicting." you're still guessing, only now you're being oblivious about it.
 

Typ_Ex

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This is why I wrote it. A lot of people guess and don't even know what they're doing.

Nice little trick that shows action is always faster than reaction, Against Snake, when he does a down throw and sits in his shield, do the normal get straight up, turn and grab him. It's funny, Snake clearly has more time than you to grab, but doesn't. Be careful though, they'll start to predict it.

Anyways, this thread is why experienced melee players are better than new upcoming brawl players, for now. They already knew this information from melee.
Heh, i think we can learn a lot from each other tommy.
 

clowsui

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For some reason playing as Falco makes it difficult to notice patterns. Probably because he has a lot of options that require the opponent to have fast reactions in order to avoid punishment, and you continue doing it to punish and not to condition >__>

If you guys are having trouble w/ prediction, just start playing Marth and MK in friendlies. It's really easy to notice patterns with them and it's easy to punish patterns with those two characters. Also, start watching videos and noticing patterns. Even if you think you are "BS'ing" the patterns that you're "noticing", just keep with it until you're proven wrong consistently and then develop new conclusions on what they're doing.
 

N3XUS

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Mar 16, 2008
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This is why I wrote it. A lot of people guess and don't even know what they're doing.

Nice little trick that shows action is always faster than reaction, Against Snake, when he does a down throw and sits in his shield, do the normal get straight up, turn and grab him. It's funny, Snake clearly has more time than you to grab, but doesn't. Be careful though, they'll start to predict it.

Anyways, this thread is why experienced melee players are better than new upcoming brawl players, for now. They already knew this information from melee.
OMG! I do this to snakes already not even thinking about it, but I know i'm just guessing cuz Sometimes i get up tilted and die or regrabed. Having this mindset while playing looks really powerful and can possibly give poor little weak falco the edge he needs to win. After watching you play then reading this thread, things are starting to make more sense to me now. Maybe if you go to the next brawl gigs we could get some friendlies in.
 

Tommy_G

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OMG! I do this to snakes already not even thinking about it, but I know i'm just guessing cuz Sometimes i get up tilted and die or regrabed. Having this mindset while playing looks really powerful and can possibly give poor little weak falco the edge he needs to win. After watching you play then reading this thread, things are starting to make more sense to me now. Maybe if you go to the next brawl gigs we could get some friendlies in.
You know something really interesting. I really didn't start implementing this until about 1-2 weeks ago. I use to guess and get frustrated when I lost because I didn't know why.
 

N3XUS

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It didn't look like that at all when I saw you play. One example is when you were playing mickey, and you connected 4 or 5 jabs in a row then ran past him for a pivot grab. It was like you knew he was gonna shield.
 

Tommy_G

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It didn't look like that at all when I saw you play. One example is when you were playing mickey, and you connected 4 or 5 jabs in a row then ran past him for a pivot grab. It was like you knew he was gonna shield.
A few times I would make predictions like that. I would especially make predictions when fighting close range. Where I was guessing was when to approach. I would run in with any attack hoping it would hit or hoping I could get in close to do some damage.
 

Nefarious B

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I really like this topic, even though it's Falco specific I think other boards would benefit if they adapted it to their character. Very good info, it's obvious you've thought this out well and even though it seems simple its very difficult for newbies like me to put a finger on.
 

superglucose

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This, more than anything else is what I need. Well, this and a handy, dandy dose of tech skill ;)

Got any tech booster shots?
 

Typ_Ex

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I've always wondered this, so ill post it on here. How do people play w/o really thinking about what the opponent does and how it affects you? When I started falco, i figured this is how people would play falco
 

clowsui

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Simple - people just think, "how do I avoid the next move that's coming at me and how do I hit 'em back", not "how do I avoid the next x moves and hit them back with the best y"
 

Typ_Ex

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its not even that. like in tournaments i spend my first match like studying opponent habits and stuff. than i start thinking, "how can i manipulate them to do x so i can do y" pretty much like a game of cat and mouse to me.
 

Tommy_G

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It is more of "I only want to attack them!!!!" so they approach with whatever attack is in their mind or "I'm going to laser laser laser and I think now is a good time to sliding up smash...I hope it works."

If you play trying to get them to fall into something specific, you're going to fail. How many times have you gotten really messed up trying to get that first grab in?

I think in terms of this "If I do X moves, what is their reaction going to be(What are they going to do, where are they going to end up, how long before they do it)?" *thinks of their reaction and does the best move that beats them*
 

BleachigoZX

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I just wait for mistakes, it's easy. Just run away with OoS-IAP and laser. I'm thinking harder about the Marth match-up and I'm considering going over to my Crewmate, Pierce7D, today to play him. (and test out some solutions that I believe I have found, and to work on my ROB)

I'm going to start posting mad **** about the Marth Match-up in the Q&A Thread, being that it's my favorite around this place.
 

Typ_Ex

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people of course aren't going to just fall for something cause of habit. which is why you have to force them to do it with your own maneuvers.
 

Emperor Time

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