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Predicting and Punishing with Wolf

SelfPossessed

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 11, 2008
Messages
170
Over the course of a match, you should be able to notice patterns in your opponent's attacks. Predicting these attacks and countering them is an important part of any fighter, Brawl included.

In general, you predict patterns by observing your opponent and take note of the conditions that they will execute a specific attack on. Some examples are as follows:
  1. Positioning on the stage

    His back is to the edge. Does he try to regain the center? How does he do so? Jump crossover? Roll?
    Your back is to the edge. Does he try to knock you off stage? Does he like dash grabs, smashes, etc.?
    He is on a platform. Does he like to drop off of it and attack with an aerial? Does he run or jump away?
    You are on a platform. Does he use rising aerials or a hyphen upsmash?

  2. What percent you/the opponent are at

    You are at low percents. Does he like bum rushing for certain combos, usually grab or tilt related?
    You are at high percents. Does he like spamming his kill moves? Or does he refresh using other moves first?
    He is at high percents. Does he like to camp defensively instead of attacking? Projectile spam?

  3. Spacing

    What attacks does he like to do at point blank, close range, mid range, etc.? Does he like barely tipping his attacks? Does he approach from the ground or air? Does he dash foward, walk forward, SH, FH?
    You are both grounded, one in the air, or both are in the air. What attacks does he like to use then? If he's under you? Above you? How far away?
    When he is in the air, does he land with an attack?

  4. Frame Advantage

    Your opponent just got hit. What does he like to do? Interrupt your followup? DJ away? Shield?
    You just got hit. What does your opponent like to do? Chase with aerials?

Note that this is not a exhaustive list; it is a general guideline. Every opponent is different, so you have to react differently to the situation.

As there are too many situations to document, let's take the specific case that you predict a basic attack. I have divided the options into three main categories: Typical Defensive Options, Interrupt the Attack, and Spacing to Avoid. Typical Defensive Options are basic universal options available to every character. Interrupt the Attack involves outprioritizing enemy attacks with your own via disjoints/range/speed/invincibility. Spacing to Avoid is the most rewarding and involves avoiding an attack and severely punishing the resulting whiff.

Which of these options you will use depends on your playstyle and your opponent. Try to vary them to remain unpredictable. Many options can work against the same attack. Every option has a drawback; experiment and use the ones that work for you. You don't want to always be avoiding attacks as you'll lose stage control too quickly. You also don't want to keep trying to interrupt attacks as you'll quickly develop an easily punishable attack pattern. Predict while remaining unpredictable.

I. Typical Defensive Options:

  • Shield

    Shield the attack and punish. Works against attacks that do not leave Wolf too far to punish, do not deplete shield, do not shield poke, and are not grabs. Works well with spotdodge. Punish with OoS options, typically a SH Bair, Shieldgrab, or Jab. Fsmash for laggier moves.

    Usually safe if you predict incorrectly. Not attacking and attacks that leave Wolf too far away reset the situation. Shield depleting attacks leaves Wolf in a bad spot, but do not guarantee damage. Shield poke moves can usually be stopped by angling the shield. Grabs are the only issue.

  • Dash Shield

    Screw up the opponent's spacing with the dash forward. Punish with OoS options, typically a shield grab. Works against almost any attack that you can shield in time with the exception of a grab.

    Somewhat safe if you predict incorrectly. Whiffing standing grabs is not common practice and the dash usually avoids dash grabs/attacks. If the opponent did not attack at all, it leaves you in a bad position afterwards (retreating jump shine OoS helps). The only issue is getting hit before the shield comes up, which is rarer given the distance that you're dashing from. Typically, the opponent has to predict this in order for you to actually get punished.

  • Perfect Shield

    Used as a reactionary counter to slower attacks. Typically used while walking forward against projectiles. Can also be used against other slower telegraphed attacks like ZSS's side B or MK's glide attack. Punish with whatever you can (Fsmash, Dsmash, etc.).

    Very safe when used as a reactionary counter. Predicting with PS is not safe unless it's obvious (like MK's glide attack).

  • Spotdodge

    Uses the invincibility frames to avoid an attack. Typically used against most attacks that counter shield, such as grabs, moves that deplete shield quickly, or moves that shield poke. Do not use it against lingering attacks. Note that some attacks counter both shield and spotdodge.

    If you don't get predictable with it, this is can net you a Dsmash kill or a grab/jab (refresh).

    Not safe if you predict incorrectly as it tends to leave you vulnerable frame-wise in Wolf's bad zone. Shield is usually, though not always, a better option due to safety.

  • Roll

    Uses the invincibility frames to avoid an attack, positioning Wolf behind the opponent. Must be spaced so that Wolf ends up behind the opponent. Works well against attacks that last long enough to punish after a roll but does not cover behind the opponent. Examples include jab combos or laggy fsmashes.

    Follow up with Fsmash (range) or Jab (speed and refresh) or Grab (refresh) or Dsmash (for the kill).

    Not safe at all if you predict incorrectly as it tends to leave you vulnerable frame-wise in Wolf's bad zone. Do not abuse.

  • SHAD (possible crossover)

    Avoids the attack with invincibility frames. Slower than roll frame-wise, but gives you more control and less vulnerability frames. Punish with jab for speed as it's unlikely you'll land anything else.

    Not safe if you predict incorrectly. It lasts way too long (can't FF during the SHAD) so most attacks finish in time for the opponent to react to your SHAD and punish the landing lag. If the opponent cannot react to SHAD in time, then it's pretty safe. You can vary if you land behind or in front of the enemy, which might help avoid punishment.

II. Interrupt the Attack:

  • Rising Fair

    Use the disjointed properties of the Fair to outprioritize attacks. Executed at Fair's maximum range to fully abuse its disjointed properties and range; most attacks that outspeed it have less range. Works against attacks that are NOT more disjointed (avoid use against Marth's Fair, MK's Fair, GW Bair, etc.) and do not outspeed it before the hitbox comes out. If the opponent is a ******, this will work better against aerial attacks rather than ground attacks. Complements Bair really well.

    Usually safe if you predict incorrectly; just retreat out of range in the air with it. You do lose stage control though.

  • Rising Bair

    Outspeeds and outranges attacks. Executed at Bair's maximum range as attacks that are faster than it typically have less range. Works even against disjointed attacks as long as it hits first. This can cause opponents to whiff attacks with less range in anticipation of the Bair. FH Bair may not hit shorter characters unless they jump. Complements Fair really well and can occasionally combo with another Bair.

    Bair is better than Fair in cases like interrupting Marth's Fair. Marth's frame is large enough that Bair can hit Marth first. Fair is better than Bair in cases like D3's Bair, which is fast and has a lingering hitbox.

    Somewhat safe if you predict incorrectly. Usually results in a simultaneous hit or a whiff (you can still pressure from the air then).

  • Jump Shine

    Uses invincibility frames on rising to interrupt the enemy attack. Works against attacks that are not too disjointed; it must be within range of the opponent's hurtbox. SH Shine works against aerials and grounded enemies. FH Shine works against aerials but only hits tall grounded enemies.

    Use in place of rising Fair/Bair if too close to an enemy with faster aerials. It can work at further ranges against non-disjointed attacks (like DK's Bair), but Fair/Bair are usually better options then. Can be used OoS if you're caught holding shield out too long.

    Safe against immediate punishment if you predict incorrectly, but leaves you in a bad position afterwards against experienced opponents. May force you to use DJ or try a Flash cancel to escape.

  • Grounded or Falling Shine

    Uses invincibility frames to counter the enemy attack. Alternative defensive measure to mix things up. Complements airdodge when falling in the air and avoids the spotdodge/shield mixup (continuous attack vs a grab) when on the ground.

    Spam it to break certain combo strings. Works against attacks that are not too disjointed; it must be within range of the enemy's hurtbox.

    Not safe if you predict incorrectly as it leaves Wolf vulnerable in his bad zone. Do not abuse.

  • Jab

    Outspeed the opponent's attacks. Comes out in 4 frames and has slight disjointed properties. Works against attacks that do not outspeed it and are in its range. Typically used in up close fights where every frame counts.

    Not used often as jab range is usually in Wolf's bad/neutral zone.

    Somewhat safe if you predict incorrectly. Usually results in a simultaneous hit, a whiff, or a hit on shield. Typically leaves Wolf in a bad position afterwards though.

  • Pivot Grab

    Uses the increased range of the pivot grab and grab armor to interrupt attacks. Works against attacks that are not more disjointed than it (which includes other grabs). Works especially well against opponents coming from above as pivot grab has increased vertical range, typically against Dair or Nair or AD. Note that you can dash behind them as they are landing and pivot grab to avoid even disjointed attacks.

    Though difficult due to its low range, try to land this whenever possible as the pummel + throw helps refresh your Bair better than most of Wolf's other options.

    Somewhat safe if you predict incorrectly. The dash backwards can screw up the opponent's spacing and the whiff animation doesn't last long.

III. Spacing to Avoid:

  • Walk/Stand, wait for whiff, punish

    Stay just out of range of an opponent's attack, either by walking or standing, and wait for a whiffed attack that is laggy enough to punish.

    Punish grounded attacks with dash shield grab, Fsmash, or DACUS. If you need more range than Fsmash but are iffy on performing DACUS, stutter step the Fsmash.

    Against whiffed aerial attacks, try to combo multiple aerials. These are both guaranteed combos at certain % depending on spacing and stale moves. The FH seems easier to combo with for me if the opponent is high enough but misses if they're too low and short. These were tested successfully in training mode.
    • SH Bair -> DJ Bair
    • FH Bair -> Bair

    If you're lucky, you can even get additional hits in. These were also tested successfully in training mode.
    • SH Bair -> DJ Bair -> FF Bair
    • FH Bair -> FF Bair repeat

    The success of your combo against an aerial whiff usually depends on barely avoiding the aerial and hitting them from underneath with the Bair before they retreat too far. Tipped Bair might knock them too far back to combo.

    Alternatively, you can try to punish the landing lag of a whiffed aerial attack.

    This is usually safe as you control the spacing and can react with a shield/whatever as needed if you predict incorrectly. You do lose some stage control if you walk backwards and predict wrong though.

  • Dash away SH towards FF punish

    Avoid the attack with the dash away and SH towards to punish with an aerial. Typically requires that you commit to the SH towards.

    You should ALWAYS look to land this at the percents where the combos start working. The reward is amazing and is why Wolf is considered a great punisher. This is how you safely land an unspaced SH FF Bair for massive damage.

    Against grounded opponents:
    • SH FF Bair -> Ftilt/Dash Attack/Jab at lower percents
    • SH FF Bair -> Fsmash at medium percents
    • SH FF Bair -> DACUS (damage) or SH FF Bair Stutter step Fsmash (easier) at higher percents

    Against a grounded opponent (it's easier on taller characters like Snake, though possible against ******* like MK) or an aerial opponent close to the ground, you can go for a:
    • SH FF Uair/Bair -> FH Bair -> (FF/DJ) Bair
    This is guaranteed depending on %, spacing, and stale moves. That's a 3 hit combo, sometimes 4+ guaranteed hits. FF Uair seems to work better than FF Bair for combos as long as the Uair is in range.

    These combos were tested successfully in training mode.

    Somewhat safe if you predict incorrectly as you still can DI away Bair, DI away AD, or DJ away. You may lose stage control as well.

  • SH away FF towards Bair

    Avoids a fast attack with the retreating SH and quickly punishes with Bair. Can combo into Ftilt/Fsmash at certain %, though it's rare as you typically tip the Bair with this. Primarily used when the opponent is dashing towards you as it stops most dash attacks, dash grabs, and hypen Usmashes. Can be done OoS if you're caught holding your shield out too long. If you're having trouble punishing an opponent spamming attacks with little lag, try setting this up.

    Usually safe as you're retreating quickly and the Bair can cover your retreat. You do lose stage control though.

  • SH away turnaround Blaster

    Stay out of enemy attack range with the SH and punish with a Blaster.

    Usually safe as you're retreating quickly. You do lose a LOT of stage control though as Blaster has heavy lag.

  • SH crossover FF Punish

    Avoid a low attack (usually dtilts) and punish with a:
    • FF Bair -> Fsmash
    • FF Uair -> FH Bair -> whatever
    If they happened to defend instead, you can mix it up with a turnaround grab.

    Not too safe as it has to be against a low attack or a defending opponent; a large number of attacks will knock you out of this.

  • FH away FF Bair (option to crossover)

    Avoids most attacks. The Bair is likely to hit against most aerials or very laggy ground attacks. It gives you a lot of control over the air. However, the reward is significantly less than other options. Low risk low reward.

    Usually safe given the speed that Wolf moves and the control you have in the air.

SPECIAL NOTES:

Under Walk/Stand, wait for whiff, punish and Dash away SH towards FF punish, I have listed combos that were verified in training mode. They showed up on the counter. However, this does not account for smash DI or stale moves, so it's possible that the combo can be escaped (bad) or extended (good). In addition, AD and the extra damage in training mode may have skewed these results.
Sliq111 said:
I don't think this actually works, because air dodging allows you to circumvent hit lag by ending it early. Same with jumping and aerials. Specials are the only commands that force you to wait out the hitstun.

Plus, I think that training mode might have extra hitstun. I know it does extra damage for some unknown reason.
Note that safety is a means of measuring the approximate likelihood and amount of punishment you would take for predicting incorrectly. This assumes that the opponent did not predict YOUR attack; his option just happened to avoid or counter your prediction. No attack in Brawl is truly safe if the opponent knows you're going to do it after all. For example, you wanted to interrupt an attack with Fair, but the opponent shields instead. You can retreat the Fair safely, so it's relatively safe. On the other hand, if you do a grounded Shine and it does not hit the opponent like you expected, the lag afterwards is bad enough that you will get punished.
 

Ishiey

Mother Wolf
BRoomer
Joined
May 20, 2008
Messages
7,292
Location
Land's End (NorCal)
I didn't finish reading all of it yet, but I'm going to give you your own section in the ultimate sticky. Good job as usual SP.

:059:
 

Dv8tor

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 23, 2008
Messages
226
I really don't know how much time or boredom it takes to do the things you do but it's awesome. Great job, keep it up!
 

Semifer

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 25, 2008
Messages
212
Location
Germany
I really enjoyed reading this, it's what the Wolf boards need.
But a little piece of information: Every Char can be hit by SH FF Uair, not only big ones like Snake, even MK and Kirby, but the timing is difficult, you almost have to input the Uair frame perfect before you land.
And SH jump shine hits everyone besides MK, Kirby and Squirtle I think (not tested yet).
 

SelfPossessed

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 11, 2008
Messages
170
I did not know that SH FF Uair worked on grounded *******. Cool.

I forgot to add in SH shine. I personally always FH it so it didn't cross my mind. Whoops.
 

SelfPossessed

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 11, 2008
Messages
170
I fixed it. It was a mistake on my part as I was assuming FH Shine.

Any other comments?
 

Semifer

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 25, 2008
Messages
212
Location
Germany
sh jumpshine hits everyone including MK
I tested this and that seems to depend on the standing animation of MK, so it's not very practical.
Maybe I'm wrong, but actually I'm very good at frame perfect jumpshining, Anyway, I'll test this again later...

edit: Just tested it and I could confirm what I thought.
SH jumpshine only hits MK when he holds his cape in front of him, and that won't happen in a match, so I think we can say it doesn't work on MK.
Same case with Pikachu, it only works when Pikachu raises its head upwards.
I'm not sure with Olimar and Kirby, it often hits them but it also often doesn't, maybe it depends on the breathing animation, or I'm just to silly to get off the timing consistently, but I always seem to have about the same...
 
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