Without the Chaingrab, this M U is 60-40.
With the CG, it's 55-45.
Wario should never really be able to approach you. If he comes from above, Uptilt, if he comes from the side, Ftilt, there really is no better way to explain it. Your Jab, Ftilt, and utilt all beat out his aerials. Seems easy right?
Well, the thing is, mixups are quite a pain. Beyond the general camply play style you have to play, if he decides to Air dodge instead of Dair, then he grabs you, you're in for some nasty followups. Furthermore, getting back on the stage is just as frustrating as it is against Marth, because all of his Ariels hit you just soft enough so that a follow up can be administered with your happy 20 frame landing lag. Further more, if the player can do the CG, you're in for a nice 52-110 combo.
But don't worry, With your Utilt and your Ftilt keeping him away and in check, this MU is really about mediocre reads, playing it Safe, and not getting ***** by Dair. Who ever said you have to approach Wario?
A hidden option you have, is in your shield if they decide to Nair you, you can Boost Pivot Grab OOS to grab them, it's really handy. Also, when they come down with Dair, you can boost Pivot Grab them extremely safely. Take note that your Soft Bair and your Lasers hit Wario off his bike.
Additionally, while Wario is recovering, his Up B doesn't always sweet spot, so charge that Fsmash, it might hit the top of their head, and kill them.
Also, do you Falco's understand how big the hitbox of your Bair is? Learn it, because the hitbox is also on the top of his head. big enough, so that if you're directly below him, while he is jumping or just above you, it will hit him. It's **** hear around his entire body. It serves as an excellent punishment for Wario in the air in lieu of Fair punishments. The Dthrow LL starts at about 55 Percent.
Falco's Nair is very useful in this MU in my opinion. An easy way to punish his Air dodges, as well as his Aerials. My only hang up, is that you shouldn't really be in the position to use it much. If you are finding yourself using Nair a lot up close, you're playing this matchup incorrectly. Granted, you'll use it, but not more than 5-10 times a match.
Become too predictable, and this MU will be frustrating. Stay calm, collected, safe, and this MU is yours. They shouldn't be able to get that grab in anyway if you're playing perfectly.
So in conclusion,
I'd say 60-40, Assuming no CG.
55-45 if they can do it 100% consistently, which honestly, not many Wario's can do on the spot under pressure. But even then, it's one of those MU's where it can NEVER be in Wario's Favor. I think that a good mentality for this MU, is remember, that this match up is EXTREMELY hard for the Wario. They will be more frustrated than you 100% of the time, if you capitalize on their frustration, you should have an easier time.