I play this matchup A LOT. I actually think it's even.
Lucas' SH Nair eats everything. It's generally his biggest damage builder. If it's auto-canceled it also leads into a bunch of stuff.
His jab comes out very very fast. Don't get baited by stuff that looks like it should be laggy.
At far distances I've seen PK freeze used to bait an approach. I always feel like I have time, but if he brings the freeze right in front of him you have to air dodge or shield and you get frame trapped. He can also move the freeze to directly behind him.
When offstage he'll generally use PK thunder to try and boff up your recovery. Don't use bike when you are near it. Nair and Fair cancel the thunder ONLY IF YOU HIT THE HEAD, I've hit the tail countless times and gotten all kinds of screwed up.
He can kill you at really really low damages. Full hop dair traps you in and makes you have to tech the ground, but because you're bouncing in the air it's easy to miss. If you miss he'll auto-cancel into d-tilt or f-tilt. F-tilt will make you do that getup thing where you don't get to attack or roll (what is the name of that?) and he'll get a free Upsmash or Fsmash.
Don't try to punish FH Dair from anywhere but above. It's really safe on your shield for him and he'll just continue to AC them and do more until you're forced to roll or drop shield.
Edgeguarding is frustrating. His recovery goes really far. He could make it back from just about anywhere. Don't chase him offstage unless you're confident you can get there before he PK thunders. And don't assume he'll pick any certain direction, he'll go straight up if you're far enough offstage. It'll give him enough DI to land on the stage fairly easily.
I guess a lot of this matchup relies heavily on SDI, but if you're not good at that it'll be pretty difficult.
