There's no question that Falco is very, very good.
Matchups
I agree with DEHF that his worse matchups are Pika/IC's, but I think IC's are definitely at least 60:40. They probably aren't as bad as 70:30 though. Falco is very capable of beating IC's, but his options are undeniably limited. If that's not a definitive ~60:40, then I don't know what is.
I will disagree that those are his only bad matchups, though. I think Larry ranks Falco a bit too high based on his own skill level over the character itself.
Don't misunderstand me though-- while I think Falco has a few disadvantaged matchups, none of them are that terrible and they're all do-able. Falco can have trouble with other characters like G&W, Kirby, Sheik, etc. but none of them are hopeless.
I define them as "disadvantaged" because there are plenty of other characters that a player would rather use in those matchups over Falco. I don't really see how that can be disputed, given Falco's ability to be combo'd and lack of kill power, there are plenty of characters who are a better choice for taking on G&W, Kirby, Sheik, etc.
For example, I would prefer DeDeDe. Falco is just too easy to kill; a few good reads from a G&W for instance can take him out and put him at a sever disadvantage. It's not a "hard" matchup, but I wouldn't call it even either.
Falco has a great matchup chart overall, but he just isn't the best "pick a character and stick with it" choice compared to characters like MK, Snake, Marth, Diddy, Wario, Peach, (possibly even Olimar), or IC's, who all have few or no bad matchups, or better tools to deal with the bad matchups that they do have.
Character strengths / weaknesses
His ability to zone and limit the options of other characters is incredibly impressive. Phantasm, Jab, Chain Grab damage, and Lasers alone are a force to be reckoned with for any character. That said, I don't think it's reasonable to wave away the fact that Falco dies extremely early and gets combo'd to kill % quite easily. Not only that, but he's gimp-able, given his terrible vertical recovery.
"When played perfectly" isn't really something that I care to delve into in terms of matchups, personally. With characters like Akuma or Seth in SF4 or MK in Brawl, everyone always says "if played perfectly, they're unstoppable!" and yet, pretty much no one ever achieves that feat. I just don't think it's reasonable to base a character on some kind of unproven theory of invincibility, especially when the characters that have said theory applied to them are so often low health / easily killable characters.
I feel that we all too often overlook how easy a character can be killed based on their health when considering their tier placing. Snake, for instance, can kill extremely easily, yet it is extremely difficult for the opponent to kill him... that alone keeps Snake very highly placed, and a lot of people overlook that, but it's a huge strength of the character.
Placement
I think Falco is a very strong character, but I don't think he's top 3. The #1 spot is obviously MK and I don't see Snake dropping from #2 any time soon.
I'm probably going to catch a lot of flack for this, but I would place Marth above Falco on any tier list. Based on the traditions of this community, a lot of people see that as crazy, but Marth has better overall matchups than anyone in the game, save MK. That is a fact that gets overlooked way too often.
This isn't Marth discussion though, so I won't get too into that.
I think Falco is pretty solid at 4th or 5th, about where he is now. I could see him either way as better or worse than IC's, Wario, or Diddy, etc. etc., depending on how the metagame evolves.
I would be more willing to place Falco at #3 if he just didn't die so darned easily. That is literally all that is holding him back-- however, that's exactly why he was designed to die early. It's a very common theme to make a character like Falco easy to kill; it justifies how good all of his options are in doing so.
Falco should always be "top" tiered, no questions there. It's just a question of what order he should be in within that top tier.