Event - Apex 2015 Wii U pool analysis

[Tempus]

I was doing some predictions to while away the aways before tomorrow, and I noticed some pool imbalances. Given how new the game is and how difficult it is to monitor player ability in a few short months, it's no surprise that there's some difficulties with seeding. I listed off the top 64 players as far as I know, and checked out the pools. Here's the low down. Please note, some players (notably ESAM) have withdrawn.

1st Round

Hardest Pool: C49 with Zex, Junebug, and Alphicans.
Other Hard pools: B46, C44, C45, D48, F50, and F54 all have two players in my top 64 list.

Easiest pools: Pretty much any pool A, or pools E50-E58 are up in the air (with a few exceptions).

2nd Round
(four people advance)

From hardest to easiest (and by hardest, I mean hardest for a dark horse to take top 4 and advance):

2-1: Zero, False, Zucco, Leffen, Seagull Joe, Zex
2-3: Choco, Nietono, Tyrant, 6WX, ChefPac
2-2: Mr.R, Abadango, DKWill, K9sbruce, Max Ketchum, Alphicans
2-7: Nakat, Ally, Zinoto, Vinnie, Amsa
2-4: M2K, Larry Lurr, cyve, 8Bitman (the Diddy pool, lol)
2-8: FOW, Dabuz, TheReflexWonder, Denti, Keitaro
2-6: Nairo, JMiller, RichBrown, V115, Meekspeedy, Boss
2-5: Jtails, XSax, Chibo, Logic, Tenuhe


Finals:

Winning is always better than losing. First and second winners are generally happy folk. Second winner in pool 2-4 and Pool 2-2 are gonna have a rough time. Second winner in Pool 2-6 and then 2-7 will have the best. The best spot for third place are third place in Pool 2-4, and third place in Pool 2-7. The worst is 3rd place in Pool 2-2 then third place in Pool 2-8.

So, Pool 2-2 is the crappiest to advance from, and Pool 2-7 is the best.

Of course, bottom line is always player ability.

 

[moofpi]

I love Zucco, but 2-1 is probably going to ZeRo and probably False.

How come you have DKWill in 2-2 and 2-6? Mr. R will advance, but assuming Will is actually in 2-6, the other person advancing I hope will be Abadango (the perfect Pac-Man) or No Air Fighter Alphicans.

2-4 is going to be M2K and Larry Lurr if he doesn't drown in the Diddy Pool.

Man Pool 2-6 and 2-8 are pulling on my heart strings, I like almost all those top players.
2-6 most likely will be Nairo and Boss moving on, but I love RichBrown and Will they're going to be awesome.

2-8, I like Keitaro's Falco and ReflexWonder's Wario is top. But also FOW...dude's going to REK. Dabuz is also likely advance.

Great analysis man! I'm so pumped for today

 

[Tempus]

DKWill expected to win pool F48 and move into Pool 2-2, apologies. Edited to fix it. Four people advance from each of the second round pools - So pool 2-1 is pretty much a lock for Zero, False and Zucco. Plus one other.

 

[moofpi]

DKWill expected to win pool F48 and move into Pool 2-2, apologies. Edited to fix it. Four people advance from each of the second round pools - So pool 2-1 is pretty much a lock for Zero, False and Zucco. Plus one other.

Well that's a lot easier on my stress for those pools. Y'know. If they happen.

 

[Tempus]

Well, first pools are over. Everything went pretty much as expected, but a few odds and ends.

Pool 2-1 gets hit hard. Junebug's Lucario in C49 pulls out a surprising win against Top Little Mac Player Alphicans, who in turn beats top player Zex. Zero has a lock for slot 1, slot two is set for False or Zucco, slot 3 is in heavy contention between Max Ketchum, K9, or Alphicans, and the fourth slot will almost certainly go to the loser of False/Zucco. Medium potential for a dark horse in this pool.

Pool 2-2 is as expected, except with Junebug instead of Alphicans. Slot one should got to Mr.R, Slot 2 to Abadango. Slots three and four will probably go to two of JuneBug, DKWill, or Vex. Medium chance of dark horse.

Pool 2-3 has one rough side, and one easy side. Slot one will probably go to Choco or 6wx. Slot two to Nietono. Slot three will be between Mr.E or Loser of Choco/6wx, and the fourth will be between Chef Pac, Larry Lurr, or Tyrant. Very little chance of a dark horse, but plenty of contenders.

Pool 2-4 is up in the air. M2K should take slot one no contest. cyve and 8bitman are both top 32 candidates, but fight in the first round. They should grab one of the slots, but the remaining two could go to anyone. Very high chance of a dark horse.

Pool 2-5 is a bit odd as well, due to the way it interacts with the seeds in Pool 2-4. Jtails or Xsax should get slot one. Slot two may go to Tenuhe, but as I'm not personally familiar with them I can only say that from hearsay. Slot three will go to the loser of Xsax and Jtails in all likelihood, but slot four could go to anyone. Very high chance of a dark horse.

Pool 2-6 is pretty close to locked. First slot should be Nairo, and second J Miller. Third should go to Rich Brown, but Fourth could go to Boss, Amsa, or Nick Riddle. Probably Boss. Low chance of a dark horse.

Pool 2-7 is also pretty locked. First and second should go to Ally and Nakat, and third and fourth to Vinnie and Zinoto. Very low chance of a dark horse.

Pool 2-8 is reasonably open to losers side. First and Second are gonna be FOW and Dabuz. Third and fourth could be Denti and TheReflexWonder, but there are enough others who put on very good showings today to push one or the other out. Medium-high chance of dark horse.


Overall, Zero has the easiest path of the top 32 expected players, and Alphicans has the hardest. Pool 2-5 is the lowest level on average (this was supposed to be ESAM's pool, but he dropped out), and Pool 2-1 is the highest level on average. Pool 2-3 also has a very high level, pretty close to 2-1.


Upsets for today:

• Junebug unexpectedly takes top in pool C49, the harshest of the early pools. He must be on point today! Good job Junebug. Alphicans is sent to the extremely difficult pool 2-1 with a loss, making his chances for top 32 very slim. Zex, a top 32 contender, is eliminated in pools, for the saddest result of the Smash 4 tourney.
• CT Chibo unexpectedly does not make the second pools, but was not expected to advance past them. Sync is now the biggest dark horse contender in the pool with the greatest opportunity for a dark horse, 2-5.
• Keitaro and Wizzrobe both unexpectedly lose out to belaC. Neither were expected to make it past 2nd pools, but belaC is a serious a dark horse contender. He's in pool 2-8, which means he's got the a fair chance.

 

[Arbitation]

Thanks for giving us updates on Wii U pools. I have nothing intelligent to add to the conversation, really, but thought I'd show some appreciation for your run-downs.

 

[ChrisP4]

Whaaat, no Anti :'(

 

[Tempus]

So, last night off-stream the round two pools were run, to some extremely unexpected results! First off, the tourney organizers decided to advance only the top 2 from each pool and not the top 4 as per apex rules, presumably to save time. So that's huge, both for the fact that Smash 4 lost a big chunk of their hype matches, and because the finals are much smaller now. Unlike the first set of pools, we also saw a lot of unexpected results.


Pool 2-1: Zero and False advanced. Zucco and Alphicans, two other top 8 contenders, did not make the cut due to pool seeding issues.

Pool 2-2: Mr.R and Abandango take this pool, as expected.

Pool 2-3: Nietono from Japan takes the top spot, and 6wx beats out top 8 favourite Choco for the privilege of advancing to the top 16.

Pool 2-4: M2K locks in on top spot as expected, but 2nd place taken surprisingly by Ninjalink, a known streamer and technique recorder. He was expected to peak at top 64, but what must've been fantastic play combined with a very open-ended pool see him take himself into the top 16.

Pool 2-5: In an extremely strange turn of events, the second seed from ESAM's original pool, Aerolink, takes first result here. This dark horse player beat out top 16 contenders Jtails and XSax for a top 16 spot. I don't think anyone saw that coming. Jtails did take the second spot. It must've been a very hype pool.

Pool 2-6: Nairo takes the top spot of this pool as expected. aMsa, a top melee player who hasn't shown great results for smash 4 in Japan, beats out Rich Brown and J Miller to take second spot in a minor upset.

Pool 2-7: Ally and Nakat duke it out for first slot as predicted, but Nakat edges out first place.

Pool 2-8: In the biggest upset of the smash 4 tourney, top 2 contender FOW, who has consistently won sets against top players like Ally, Nakat, etc, and only consistently lost to tournament favourite Zero, is eliminated. What happened?! It's so unexpected, it could've even been a DQ given the scheduling troubles. In a baffling turn of events, MVD takes first spot, and Dabuz the second spot. I wish I knew what happened! MVD is a top 64 Floridan Brawl player who showed mediocre results at a Xanadu event, and similar at the Californian Final Battle. He wasn't even on the radar for top 64, never mind top 16! He must've played incredible.


Last night's upsets:

• Second pools were not aired, and only top 2 advanced due to scheduling issues
• FOW, top 4 favourite, was eliminated in an unknown position
• Zucco and Choco, top 8 favourites, did not pass their very difficult pools
• MVD and Aerolink break into the top 16 beyond expectations, excellent work guys

No more predictions, we'll see how the finals go today!

Also ChrisP4, Anti did not enter the tournament.

 

[Tempus]

Top 16 Character Breakdown:

Zero - Diddy
MVD - Duck Hunt, Little Mac
M2K - Diddy
Nakat - Fox
Mr.R - Shiek
Nairo - Robin, Dark Pit
Nietono - Shiek
Aerolink - Diddy, Palutena

Abadango - PacMan
NinjaLink - Megaman
False - Shiek, Luigi
Dabuz - Rosalina
Jtails - Diddy
6wx - Sonic
Ally - Mario
aMSa - Greninja