Unvote before you lose us the game. I do everything for a reason and just because you're not clever enough to pick up on it doesn't mean you should start attempting to lose the game
faster. I already set us up a win, don't look a gift horse in the mouth.
I know myself to be town; you guys don't, and that decision is up to you. Sworddancer has been careful on this one, but I'll get to that later.
The only two left that didn't vote for Kary yesterday are JTB and PJB.
PJB expressed interest in the Kary lynch, but did not vote when he was here and didn't hammer.
JTB has supposedly been blessed by Sworddancer via proof that he is town via Kantrip's result. This has yet to be seen by Circus' result. If Circus gets the same result, this means that either they are both telling the truth or both are lying and are scum together. Pretty simple there. Just gotta wait on Circus.
You with me so far?
By not voting yesterday, I narrowed our scum selection down substantially. In fact, I've allowed us to get a Process of Elimination run by getting only one mafia member correctly.
If
Kary is scum, our remaining scum have to be between myself, JTB, and PJB, correct?
Well there's 7 people here and if all 4 of us are scum then a lynch couldn't occur unless scum wanted it, right? That means, at minimum, one of them is town. I know this to be me.
So from my perspective, if Kary is
mafia, JTB and PJB have to be the remaining scum mates.
Sworddancer just got a result that JTB is town.
Leaving PJB being the only remaining scum mate.
From your perspective, this means that PJB, myself, and Kary are the scum team.
From my perspective, knowing I am town, it means that a lynch on Kary is an attempt by mafia. I was pretty sure yesterday and was able to confirm it by No Lynching.
This proves to me that Kary is being lynched by mafia and town together.
The only way you cannot logically agree with my sentiment is if you believe I am scum, but if that is the case I can account for this as well.
Logic breakdown time.
So, for kicks, lets remove all those players that didn't hammer kary. By my assumption Kary is not of mafia alignment. That leaves:
Sworddancer
Bardull
Circus
Could this be the scum team?
Yes, but I doubt it. You guys will too.
So what exactly does this mean? Is it really so simple that Sworddancer, Bardull, and Circus are scum trying to lynch an independent Kary? This seems a tad unlikely given the game's circumstances prior to toDay; while independently one could come to this conclusion I cannot really see that scum team as a possibility. You will too!
We have Kary in the middle who has been voted for one half of the remaining players, and not voted by the other half.
Sworddancer, Bardull, Circus
Kary
JTB, OS, PJB
It takes FOUR to lynch, meaning that at least one from the three would have to cross over. For all Sworddancer's bluster, he's taking a risky gamble if he's town.
Given this breakdown posted above, it becomes systematically impossible to do a Process of Elimination run to determine scum within those three groups given that
A) I am town
B) JTB is town
or
C) Sworddancer is town
As I know
I am town
and Sworddancer knows
he is town
and Sworddancer was given a result that
JTB is town
I am the most prominent variable and must be accounted for. (I'll get to this)
Try to do a PoE given either set of assumptions.
It leads you to believe that either
A) Myself, PJB, and Kary are the only mafia [assuming Sworddancer is town]
or
B) Circus, Kary, PJB, Bardull, Sworddancer contain the only mafia [assuming JTB and Overswarm are town]
"But why would you not assume Sworddancer is town and JTB is town at the same time? I don't get it."
You wouldn't! >:[
Sworddancer cannot lie about his results at this stage of the game unless he's either
A) an idiot
or
B) in cahoots with Circus, the only other player that can do any direct actions and get Kantrip's result
As such, I can assume JTB is town unless Sworddancer and Circus are scum together. If they are scum together then the scum team is Sworddancer, Circus, and JTB. This scum team cannot exist without them playing in an extremely sub-par fashion, as they could have just lied and both sadi "got an OS scum result". Logic!
As such, If Circus is scum, Sworddancer is not, if Sworddancer is scum, Circus is not
Scenario A is easy enough to account for. Pick one, move down the list until we win or lose. Bam bam bam.
Scenario B is more tricky, as it goes with only the assumptions that both myself and JTB are town; the fact that I am the only one that can confirm this scenario exists might explain to you guys why it's a bit difficult for you to fully understand the ramifications of yesterday's actions, but try to stay in my mindset for a bit. Remember, I'm town and JTB is town in these assumptions. No one else is cleared as town.
In group B, we had only Kary and PJB not vote for Kary. PJB being the only one that really matters, obviously..
We had Circus, Bardull, and Sworddancer vote.
This creates a strong disconnect, doesn't it?
If Kary was mafia and PJB was town, he'd have just hammered, right? Why wouldn't he? I was against the lynch, but he supported it openly, yet no lynch occurred.
The only potential scenario here is that either
A) PJB was scum with Kary
or
B) PJB was inactive at the wrooooooooooong time
VIA THIS SCENARIO WE ARE ABLE TO THEN CONDEMN THE ENTIRE SCUM TEAM TO A SMALL POOL OF PLAYERS
Let's remove Kary from the equation since we know mafia is trying to kill him; this will give us all the other alternatives.
If Bardull is town: Circus, Sworddancer, and PJB must be scum
If Circus is town: Bardull, Sworddance,r and PJB must be scum
If Sworddancer is town: Circus, Bardull, and PJB must be scum.
If PJB is town: Circus, Bardull, Kary and Sworddancer must contain scum and one town.
There is only one, and only one, lynch pin that is a guaranteed success for town. Just one, and it ain't Kary.
POSSIBLE SCUM TEAMS: (and me eliminating them)
1) Circus, Sworddancer, JTB are scum together and circus/sworddancer are lying about the JTB result
Why it can't be true: They're the only ones that get results. They'd just ****ing lie about someone else (i.e., me, a potential target for Kantrip anyway), resulting in a two pronged-lynch attempt towards both me and Kary, neither path leads back to them. Game over, mafia wins, end of game.
Not a possible scum team, imo.
2) Circus, Bardull, and PJB
Entirely possible, but we'd have to believe that Bardull was pushing Circus all of D2 and D3 as some distancting ploy. Possible, deserves looking into.
3) Bardull, Sworddancer and PJB
Possible as well.
4) Circus, Sworddancer, and PJB
Well this would just be silly. Circus and SDancer would have to be telling the truth about their results when they could condemn me. Entirely possible, but only as a result of sub-par play. I don't like to make that assumption.
Look at all of the above options and eliminating them, knowing that mafia is attempting to lynch Kary we have this left:
Circus, Bardull, PJB
Bardull, Sworddancer, PJB
The only links that are confirmed are both Bardull and PJB. Either lynch should net us scum.
UNLESS
I am incorrect! In which case Kary IS mafia.
If Kary
IS mafia, you know what that means?
From my perspective it means that at least ONE mafia voted for Kary... and one mafia didn't.
I am cleared by my own role PM.
JTB is cleared by Sworddancer.
PJB is the only remaining person left.
If I am right on my theory that Kary is being lynched by mafia AND town together, PJB is scum in any reasonable scum team configuration.
If I am wrong on my theory, PJB is scum.
The only guaranteed scum is PJB.
