one, if the captain grabs squirtle, he can CG him across the stage to a Uair for about a free 20-40% , or more depending on if the squirtle doesnt react too well and the captain pivot grabs, stuff like that.I thought falcon punished mistakes with his -3 frame jab ?_? (yeah that's right his jab comes out BEFORE YOU EVEN PRESS A)
I still don't think Squirtle is at a disadvantage here. Falcon's recovery isn't a bad recovery, but it's still a linear recovery and isn't hard to edgeguard with Squirtle's fair/bair (and even dair). Water Gun isn't an issue for Falcon unless he for some reason recovers above the stage. I guess you could use Water Gun to send Falcon underneath the FD lip or something, but that seems pretty situational. That being said, Falcon can also edgeguard Squirtle himself, but you have to position yourself so that you won't be hit by the water (ie get behind Squirtle and try to stage spike with bair, or try to dair him out of waterfall).
On the stage, I also think Squirtle has the advantage. Squirtle's aerials are overall better than Falcon's (I'm NOT saying Falcon's are bad, because I know they aren't). Because of Squirtle's small size, Falcon has to use his aerials carefully if he wants to actually be effective with them. Squirtle can also really rack up the damage with uptilt/upair combos (especially when fatigued) due to Falcon's fall speed, although he will first need to get inside Falcon's range.
I've noticed a lot of posts mentioning the grab release chain grab (and possible infinite? has that been confirmed?), and I just plain don't get it. When people mention all of the grab release combos on Wario, EVERYONE immediately says "good luck grabbing him". Why can't the same be said for Squirtle? Squirtle is also one of the most mobile characters in the game when airborne, most of his aerials (excluding dair and a poorly timed upair) have little, if any, landing lag, and he has a 1 frame jab to punish opponents trying to shield grab. Honestly, Squirtle should be just as hard to grab as Wario is. If Falcon does manage to get a grab on Squirtle, yeah, it's pretty devastating. But frankly, that shouldn't be happening enough to swing the matchup in Falcon's favour.
Another thing which surprisingly hasn't been mentioned (I think) is Squirtle's grab game. For a character of his size, Squirtle actually has a deceptively big grab range. He also has good throws for damage, setup, and killing. Squirtle's upthrow is actually a really good throw (I will even go as far to say that it's overall his best throw). Not only is it his most damaging throw at 11% (tied with his back throw), but it also sends opponents into an excellent position for upair 'juggles'. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wouldn't Falcon like to be below his opponents if possible so that he can hit with upair and nair easier, or at least on even ground with them? The only things Falcon can do to defend below him are dair and Falcon Kick (and air dodges, which can be both baited and punished pretty easily). Dair isn't very relieble when going against an upair happy Squirtle, and Falcon Kick is also easily punishable (it might be possible to punish it even if you get hit; I'm not sure). And of course, Squirtle's down throw is a kill move, blah blah.
Another small detail is the fact that Squirtle resists fire moves. This makes Falcon's fsmash, upb, and whatever other fire killing moves Falcon has (I would mention Falcon Punch, but it's not very reliable. Wait, ****, I just did mention Falcon Punch) kill later. I'm not saying Squirtle will be some sort of ridiculous stock tank, and honestly I'm not even sure if Falcon's upb is considered a kill move, but I thought Squirtle's fire resistance should be mentioned anyways.
I just don't see how this matchup can be anything other than 60/40 (maybe 55/45) Squirtle's advantage
squirtle is grabbed easier because he is FORCED to get cloes to deal damage, where a wario can approch with Dairs (insane), his bite, fair, or the bike, also, to grab ANYONE jab > grab. end of that.
and how many falcons do you see killing with FSMASH or UPB? those are used as a punishing move for damange, NOT killing. Dsmash, knee, uair,bair,usmash are his main kill moves (falcon punch is too beastly, it doesnt matter if he resists it)
there is no way this is in squirtles favor, but its not a death matchup for him either
i agree that it shouldnt be some ridicuous advantage like 70-30 but AT LEAST 60-40