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Newbie Mafia 3 | Jungle Republic | Ovah. Who won?

Ronike

Smash Ace
Joined
May 14, 2006
Messages
612
LOL. You do love to make everything "****ed if you do, ****ed if you don't". If I say "I think someone who happens to be related to me is town" then I am letting my personal feelings take over. If I don't then I'm scum lurking.

If I say "I think someone I previously know is town" then I am letting my personal feelings take over. If I don't then I'm scum lurking.
Tandora, its not a ****ed it you do ****ed if you dont situation. How does me saying you clearing your sister for a bad reason and thus you must be clearing her due to ties put you in that situation? I'm just asking you to find a better reason for clearing someone before you do so. YOu could comment on something else anyways, so how does not saying that force you to lurk?

Look, don't take this personally but here is what I see your big problem as:

You like to rely on your scumdar (scum radar, a term for basically feeling for scum based on gut instinct) a lot rather than scum hunting a lot. This can work well in a game where you know everyone, but in a game where you know some people, but not others, this can get you clearing the wrong people, just because you don't much like others in the game. Look for actual concrete evidence as to why someone should be clear instead of metagaming (judging people's behavior based off of how they act in other games), especially since you are metagaming off of AIM games, which are really different than those of the forum.

You're trying way to hard to point too many FOS at too many people. I"m getting the vibe from you that you like to make yourself a huge presence so people will be afraid to go after you because it is way too easy to turn their words against them.
I admit I do have that effect a lot of the time, but I don't create it on purpose. Unfortuantely, "twisting" people's words is a large part of this game, especially to me. Its less of a twisting and more of a "reading between the lines" type of thing, and often times it works well. In addition, it works well in this type of game, where we DGers ARE supposed to be showing you the ropes remember, to find where you are doing something wrong/bad to try and help you fix it. Sorry if it comes out harsh oftentimes, but thems the works.

If I was going to let familial baggage weigh me down, I would have jumped in during the crapstorm that was the "no u" argument. Instead, I backed down because I was afraid to become part of an internet argument. I'm sure everyone here has heard how winning something like that is like winning the special olympics. And for those who haven't, the punchline is you lost anyway.
It wasn't just a "no u" argument. It had purpose, if only to show me how much Mayling cracked under pressure. Say what you want about "winning" them, but it served my purpose.

I stated what I was thinking and admitted my sense motive sucks and in fact failed with Greg. I honestly thought he was the seer. In retrospect, I can see how it was more mafia scum trying to go after the other dangerous faction. So, god forbid, I actually learned something from day one. =O
I'm not one to help with role searching, I'm terrible at it, so I can't give you any tips there, but I'm glad you learned something. Just learn to think in that way (i.e: seeing things from a scum perspective), and you will have learned one of the most valuable lessons fo the game.

And May, I appreciate you defending me, but that kinda supports Ronike's point. Is my little sis scum too and trying to eliminate her sis? I can be an easy target because I tend to act guilty regardless of the truth and you know that. Now I've got my eye on you. o.O
This is what I like to hear, but I would appreciate an explanation of why you originally had her clear still.
 

#HBC | marshy

wanted for 3rd degree swag
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6th Vote Count

----------

-Hilt- (2) - Mister Eric, Tandora
Delvro (6) - Sold2, Cello_Marl, frozenflame751, Xiivi, Ronike, soaring-raptor-blast
Sold2 (1) - Mayling
frozenflame751 (1) - Delvro

Not voting (2): mentosman8, -Hilt-

----------

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

VOTE XIIVI
For future reference your vote won't count unless you unvote
 

DtJ S2n

Stardog Champion
BRoomer
Joined
Nov 4, 2009
Messages
1,687
Location
INKY
I'll put in my final opinions of the day before it ends. Started off kinda silly, but I'm glad we managed to cooperate. Very good accusation, Mentosman. I felt Greg was scum, but I couldn't explain why very well.
Hopefully Day2 we'll be able to concentrate more on serious posts, instead of silly things like how Ronike chooses to type out Ugh, or Tom not being able to participate.
 

Tandora

Smash Rookie
Joined
Nov 13, 2009
Messages
0
Location
Kuz's bedroom.
And Mayling, seriously, if Tandora's point about you being cleared because "you got all fired up in the day 1 arguments", why am I not clear? Because that's not enough information to clear someone, neither you or me. And look, you can say she isn't just clearing you because you are her sister, but on some level she is, even if she isn't doing it consciously, same as you are. Its human instinct: in a sea of strangers, you are much more likely to trust someone you know. I'm just trying to point it out to you so you don't let it bog you or your sister down.

And I can already tell you are going to get outraged by me continuing to say you are doing this so here, I challenge you this: tell me in what way getting "heated up" should clear you and why it should clear you and not me. Seriously, either of you, Mayling or Tandora, go for it.
I've never said you were scum. I said I felt you or Xiivii are scum and the other is town. I did not make very clear that the reason for that is because you two are part of the "experienced" players.

I cannot say you getting fired up makes you innocent or guilty for two reasons. One, yes as you've repeated time and time again, I don't know you. That makes you harder to read. Two, from my understanding, your aggressive style would seem fired up to most people. Thus if that is your typical play, it makes a harder read.


Tanny, I've defended or supported just about everyone this game.

And how in the whole does defending you result in trying to eliminate you?

Although it would be interesting/helpful if you could elaborate on why you thought I was pro-town. Unless if it's just a gut feeling, which is okay, imo, but you should say so.
I think what is setting off my "scumdar" is the fact you keep putting titles referencing me. Also (and god forbid I reference games I've played with you), your strategy tends towards making someone else look guilty by making an innocent comment that gets the heat on them.

I still think that May is pro-town because she offered to leave the game when things were heated up. That doesn't feel like a scum tactic that she would use. I could see you intentionally instigating someone, but I don't see you faking to quit.

Tandora, its not a ****ed it you do ****ed if you dont situation. How does me saying you clearing your sister for a bad reason and thus you must be clearing her due to ties put you in that situation? I'm just asking you to find a better reason for clearing someone before you do so. YOu could comment on something else anyways, so how does not saying that force you to lurk?

Look, don't take this personally but here is what I see your big problem as:

You like to rely on your scumdar (scum radar, a term for basically feeling for scum based on gut instinct) a lot rather than scum hunting a lot. This can work well in a game where you know everyone, but in a game where you know some people, but not others, this can get you clearing the wrong people, just because you don't much like others in the game. Look for actual concrete evidence as to why someone should be clear instead of metagaming (judging people's behavior based off of how they act in other games), especially since you are metagaming off of AIM games, which are really different than those of the forum.



I admit I do have that effect a lot of the time, but I don't create it on purpose. Unfortuantely, "twisting" people's words is a large part of this game, especially to me. Its less of a twisting and more of a "reading between the lines" type of thing, and often times it works well. In addition, it works well in this type of game, where we DGers ARE supposed to be showing you the ropes remember, to find where you are doing something wrong/bad to try and help you fix it. Sorry if it comes out harsh oftentimes, but thems the works.



It wasn't just a "no u" argument. It had purpose, if only to show me how much Mayling cracked under pressure. Say what you want about "winning" them, but it served my purpose.



I'm not one to help with role searching, I'm terrible at it, so I can't give you any tips there, but I'm glad you learned something. Just learn to think in that way (i.e: seeing things from a scum perspective), and you will have learned one of the most valuable lessons fo the game.



This is what I like to hear, but I would appreciate an explanation of why you originally had her clear still.
I don't know about anyone else, but this post seems like a whole bunch of "you're doing it wrong, only my way is right". I guess one should expect that from the experienced players, but I just cannot find it in me to agree. If you have your own play style, I can have mine too. I'm doing my best to give reasons, but every reason seems to be unacceptable.

You're doing a whole lot of telling me how I think and feel and still whine about how you don't know any of us. Interesting psychology there.

As far as I can tell, everyone has spoken up at this point about Delvro. So I'm gonna cast the hammer vote. Partly because I'm ready for this day to be over and partly because I like to hammer. =D

UNVOTE HILT, VOTE DELVRO
 

Mister Eric

Twitch.tv/MisterbeepEric Twitter: @MisterbeepEric
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Nov 24, 2008
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MisterEric
3DS FC
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I guess voting is over, I wanted to put in my opinion before the lynch but o well, I'll read through everything I missed soon. farewell delvro.
 

Ronike

Smash Ace
Joined
May 14, 2006
Messages
612
Eric, you still could have put up your opinion, I don't know why you didn't... FOS: Eric Not only for this, but also for saying that he would be around today and basically faded away then.
 

#HBC | marshy

wanted for 3rd degree swag
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Joined
May 21, 2006
Messages
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Location
swag
Final Day One Vote Count (7th)

----------

-Hilt- (1) - Mister Eric
Delvro (7) - Sold2, Cello_Marl, frozenflame751, Xiivi, Ronike, soaring-raptor-blast, Tandora
Sold2 (1) - Mayling
frozenflame751 (1) - Delvro

Not voting (2): mentosman8, -Hilt-

----------

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Delvro, Mafia Goon, has been lynched Day 1

It is now Night 1. Please send me all actions by Friday November 27 at 11:59:59 PM EST.
 

#HBC | marshy

wanted for 3rd degree swag
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You all wake up to find mentosman8 dead. And you barely got to know him! Sad sad.

mentosman8, Townie, has been killed Night 1

----------

Day 2 begins. With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch!

A deadline has been set for the last second of Saturday, December 12, EST.
 

Mayling

BRoomer
BRoomer
Joined
Nov 7, 2008
Messages
227
Location
Lexington
I can rock out... just like Tanny!

This is my official attack on Raptor and Cello_Marl. I believe that both of them are Delvro's Mafia buddies, and I'm going to try and show you why in how they interacted with each other.

First of all, let's examine Raptor's posts. They are the following:

#159

Doesn't contribute too much... accuses Ronike of OMGUS, but nothing else. What is interesting is that Ronike is one of the few people Delvro attacks.

#176

Doesn't contribute anything...

#194

Here he defends S2's agressive style.* (See how this comes into important play later.)

but yeah. thats all thats on my mind ATM. I cant say i'm fond of the arguement on greg, OR ronike, S2 is the only one I've noticed really. if S2 dies later on in the game I would go "all in" on him and Ronike being scumbuddies.
Oh? Not too fond of the argument on Greg? I thought it was because "things were getting heated up" but it could be possible he wanted the argument to be dropped cause Greg's his scum buddy!

#195

Another filler post...

#206

Another filler post...(sorry if I hurt your feelings in that post, though, Raptor. hugs)

oh GOD! .... well...that was shocking....
I've certainly never seen that before. O_o

I think I'm just gonna pretend I didn't read the better part of your last post, and take your words with a grain of salt... so other than

VOTE: DELVRO!!!!!!!!!!!

I really dont wanna take much from that other than

I guess this means S2, Xiivi, and frozenflame arent mafia? maybe thats just what greg wants us to think but that would be some hardcore mindgaming...

from that I think I got a good educated guess at the remaining mafia members now... so... just for future reference, I now suspect :

FOS: mayling and tandora

as two other possible mafia.

I dont have an arguement for this really, it's just what I inferred from their interactions with greg...

I'm still at a loss for words... :urg:
Finally the first post with substance. However, he's the first person to vote for Delvro after Delvro has come clean as scum. Tandora is the other to hammer. The people to vote for Delvro before he came out was Xiivi, Ronike, Cello_Marl, FrozenFlame, and S2.

The reason why I mention this, is that I think this was Raptor's way of throwing Greg under the bus... too little too late though. >_< What I know of Raptor's style is that he doesn't like to throw his buddies under the bus... however, with Delvro claiming he had little choice but to comply.

Let's move onto how I think Cello_Marl plays into this:

Delvro seemed pretty scummy, even before his self-incrimination. If I were scum, I would have said one of my own scummates in my own ramblings to mindgame people like Raptor.
That's not an insult, but you can see the hesitancy Delvro caused in him. Knowing Delvro, I think it's possible he would have included one person, but I doubt he would have done both. It really just depends on what an IC scummate and he might have talked about.

The only thing that makes me NOT think he and Delvro aren't scummates or playing off of each other is the last minute fixation Delvro had on Xiivi. I just don't know enough about Xiivi's scum play to know if he'd set that up with Delvro.

On the note of Delvro's posts, we should probably ignore all the ones after and including his self-claim.
One thing I noticed is that Cello_Marl and Raptor are the only two people who commented on Delvro's choice of wolves. (hmmm, interesting, hmmmmmm)

In my opinion, Delvro's choice of wolves resulted from getting flustered to the point he gave up and decided to point out who he thought was wolves.

that would mean: S2, Xiivi, and FF are not mafia.

If we consider what Cello_Marl said, then one of them is possibly a mafia buddy. In this case, I think it would be S2, because.... the interaction between Xiivi and FF between Delvro is imo too stressed to be staged. That leaves S2. Also, if you consider Raptor's earlier defendence of S2, I think that would point to a scum linking on Raptor's behalf.

Okay, so let's look at who is in this game (still alive.)

Mayling, Frozenflame, Xiivi, Cello_Marl, Raptor, Mister Eric, S2, Tandora, Hilt.

Now look at the bolded part of what Cello_Marl did. He suggested we ignore Delvro's self-claim post as well. Why? Is it because if we look at the list in an educated manner, we can see who Delvro's scum buddies are.

If we assume that Xiivi, FF, and S2 are not Mafia, then we have

Mayling, Cello_Marl, Raptor, Mister Eric, Tandora, Hilt.

I know Delvro isn't afraid to bus his mafia buddies... In fact he likes to defend who thinks is innocent so he can get on their good side. So, he defended Mister Eric... so we can take him out. I'm taking myself out as well... because I do believe he defended me... and for all intents and purposes of this list, I know I'm not mafia.

Cello_Marl, Raptor, Tandora, Hilt.

If by now you are believing any part of this argument, Raptor fos'd Tandora. I don't think he'd be one to fos'd a fellow mafia, because like I mentioned before, he's not one to bus.

Cello_Marl, Raptor, Hilt.

I'm taking off Hilt because the only interaction he's really had is with FF... I dont know what to read of that. Plus I think there's other evidence to back up my claims on Cello_Marl and Raptor.

Also remember, Cello_Marl was debating with Xiivi about *wolves*, and one of the few comments that Raptor made was about Ronike... both who Delvro debated with, one time or another.

Therefore... I conclude that cello_marl and raptor are Greg's mafia buddies! :mad:

My question is ... what do we do? Because if we lynched these fellas... won't the werewolves eat our face at night?

I think... if we lynched these two back to back... it would be 3 townies vs two werewolves... because their night kill will be eating our face. this is also assuming I'm not wrong about either one of them. However, I'm fairly confident that they are his scum buddies.

For now, I will

Vote: Soaring-Raptor-Blast
 

Mayling

BRoomer
BRoomer
Joined
Nov 7, 2008
Messages
227
Location
Lexington
I forgot about Ronike! :(

Heated/catty-like arguments between you and Delvro gives you a by (similar to Xiivi and Frozenflame) of being NOT mafia.
 

DtJ Hilt

Little Lizard
Joined
Feb 28, 2008
Messages
8,531
Location
Minnow Brook
I can agree with you on raptor, he did seem to be defending greg in a way, throwing him under a bus at the last minute, as well as cello trying to omit delvro's last posts. That was a good point.

One thing I don't agree with is your clearing of Eric from being Mafia, just because Delvro defended him. This isn't a legitimate reason to take someone out of a lynch pool.

I was, at first, fine with you voiding yourself from your list. However, at the end of your post, you push for a lynch on those two suspects you have, and considering three of the people you've removed from the lynch pool, you removed for, imo, bad reasons (I'm including the removal of you and myself), and a few of the others were removed almost solely based on Greg and Raptor's playstyle towards others in previous games, I can't really agree to those reasonings. Not that I'm saying you're suspicious, just that I think there are too many holes.

I'm really looking forward to hearing Raptor and Eric's opinion on things though. Especially Eric, as he didn't give his opinion too much in the previous game, being cut off by the day ending.
 

Cello_Marl

Smash Rookie
Joined
Nov 4, 2009
Messages
0
First I'll talk about May's specific points against me.

The reason I wanted to ignore Delvro's post was because it was obviously a bad idea.
He CONFESSED he was scum. Why listen to him at all?
By ignoring him, we are able to keep a clear head and be unbiased in our opinions.
After thinking about it, I guess that was unreasonable since we'd probably all read it by that point, and anyone who hadn't wouldn't be reading my post first,
but he/his team must have had some sort of agenda to accomplish by him claiming.
We're just feeding into what they want by considering his words.

The reason I commented on any of it at all was to point out the possibility of a mafia in
that group to Raptor, and to show that those three people are not cleared. It was obvious that he was flabbergasted by the situation, and that's the sort of player the wolves won't be killing and one ALL scum players want in; a player that could be manipulated near/at the endgame. We can point out these situations lessen the chance of bad endgame choices being made (I don't really need to elaborate on why I feel this way, I think. We've all had people really drop the ball. And no, I'm not talking about Tandora.)


I appreciate Hilt's input. He brought up most of the points I was going to make,
but I'll try to add what I can.


I think it's a huge leap for us to accept your opinions on Delvro.
Not because I think you are wrong about him; but because you are only considering
his actions based only on his own personality. We don't know what his group discussed.
Furthermore, your expectations of his actions are based on games in which he has a nightkill. The times we played AIM mafia without nightkills were almost exclusively 5-6 player games (maybe one 7-player), and so, much different than this.


Raptor FoSed Tandora.
Assuming he has a partner, it's possible that he or she told him to do so.
However, the only scenario in which it makes sense for Tandora to be partnered
with him is if Delvro told Raptor to do it after he died. I think it's unlikely, especially since
I don't think that group would agree to such a plan, but it's possible.


I've been reading a lot of the DGamers archives in the downtime since the lynch.
One thing that I noticed, and wanted to pursue, was that Mentos and FrozenFlame were
both scum partners in FF7 mafia. It's pretty obvious I've been digging up meta from those
archives; now, I have to wonder why Mentos was chosen for the nightkill. I was going to ask Mentos about what they discussed during night phases, and how Frozen's thought processes as a scum player worked. Did he die because he could have given us that information? I wonder who would have died if there was no replacement?

There are a few unresolved topics from Day 1 as well.

Both Mister Eric and Sold2 said they were going to make more observations then flaked.
They both have been coasting, Eric for most, if not all, the game, and Sold2 for the past week. Xiivi disappeared, again.
 

Xiivi

So much for friendship huh...
Premium
BRoomer
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Messages
20,342
Location
somewhere near Mt. Ebott
I've been reading a lot of the DGamers archives in the downtime since the lynch.
One thing that I noticed, and wanted to pursue, was that Mentos and FrozenFlame were
both scum partners in FF7 mafia. It's pretty obvious I've been digging up meta from those
archives; now, I have to wonder why Mentos was chosen for the nightkill. I was going to ask Mentos about what they discussed during night phases, and how Frozen's thought processes as a scum player worked. Did he die because he could have given us that information? I wonder who would have died if there was no replacement?
Awful reasoning and conclusion.

"I was going to ask Mentos for how Frozen plays as scum [instead of planning to ask them both how each other plays as scum]. Is it possible Frozen killed mentos because mentos could have told us how frozen thinks as scum?!"

It's ridiculous and chasing ghosts (which can easily be scum making up reasoning for a night kill because they made the night kill with intent to make that other player look worse).
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

BRoomer
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Jul 26, 2005
Messages
2,031
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Albuquerque, NM
Well, there is certainly quite a lot to cover.

To start off, I'll say that Delvro's post didn't come off as one drenched in lies with the intent of trying to dupe us all. I got serious vibes from that post, meaning that I really think Delvro thought he had a shot at convincing us to keep him alive via his math argument. The fact that he went through the trouble to try and convince us that mathematically it would be a better strategy to keep him alive really makes me believe that he wasn't scheming with his mafia buddies to manipulate the town via what he says after claiming maf (like what I did in HP mafia as confirmed, resurrected mafia).

So yeah, based on this I'm very confident that those who he indicted as wolves are NOT his scum buddies.

Who the wolves are is a question I don't really have an answer too. I'm having trouble figuring out for myself how wolves would likely react to a scum claim of that nature. I am however, fairly confident that Soaring Raptor blast is one of Delvro's scum partners. His reaction to Delvro's claim just seemed entirely too phony. I just reeked of a desperate scum facade attempting to legitimize him tossing his partner under the bus after a mafia claim. All in all, it just seemed to me like Delvro's claim and SRB's reaction was a poorly designed and coordinated attempt at a scum play off of one another. Mayling brings some other good supporting evidence to the table against SRB, and I agree with some of it, but for the most part, I just feel like SRB's initial reaction to the claim is a dead giveaway of his scummyness.

On the topic of Cello, I agree with Xiivi that him trying to not only buddy a dead player, but expressing his initial intent to uber metagame me by asking a former scum partner how I play as scum is nothing short of just poor town play. I have a hard time seeing Cello as the third mafia, but I would not be surprised to see him flip werewolf. I comment earlier in the game about how hard Cello has been digging for as Xiivi called them "ghost tells". I'm having a hard time discerning whether or not this is just the result of "extremist" (for lack of a better word) town play, or simply wolf/mafia play trying to come off as town who is heavily invested in finding "concrete evidence" in the form of ghost tells to undermine the legitimacy of players.

I'm very comfortable with both SRB and Cello as lynch candidates today. I'm a bit more confident in hitting scum with SRB, but as I said, I can definitely see Cello flipping wolf. I'm down with going for either one.

Vote: Soaring Raptor Blast

I'll put my vote there for now, in accordance with my confidence level on him.
 

Ronike

Smash Ace
Joined
May 14, 2006
Messages
612
Bleh, Im here... Just turkey weekend followed by tests this coming week. Really sorry, I'll get back into my games soon
 

Cello_Marl

Smash Rookie
Joined
Nov 4, 2009
Messages
0
This was supposed to be part of my last post.

Vote: FrozenFlame

Last night, when I was composing my reply to May, my computer froze up a little before 8 pm and I had to restart.
I lost my post (my fault on this one, because I restarted Firefox instead of resuming) and had to quickly retype my thoughts from scratch, and it looks like I forgot to include my vote.
Work was at 5:30 a.m. It sucked.




Xiivi said:
for buddying mentos after he's dead
FrozenFlame said:
On the topic of Cello, I agree with Xiivi that him trying to not only buddy a dead player...
I was buddying up to Tom, and by extension, Mentos, on Day 1.
First when I defended him from Xiivi's OMGUS accusation and attack.
And if you're looking for an example that you won't pass off as simply a joke,
then look at when I suspected their shared role was innocent.

The fact of the matter is, I didn't start that after his death, but before.

FrozenFlame said:
...but expressing his initial intent to uber metagame me by asking a former scum partner how I play as scum is nothing short of just poor town play.
How is this poor play? It brought you out from your hibernation. Your last post was over a week ago.
To be fair, night lasted for 48 hours. Let's just say you were inactive for 5 days.

FrozenFlame said:
So yeah, based on this I'm very confident that those who he indicted as wolves are NOT his scum buddies.
This is a weak, unsupported argument. You are saying, "If Delvro concocted this plan alone, then he wouldn't say his partners names." Why do you think this? Do you have anything which suggests your argument is correct?

FrozenFlame said:
Who the wolves are is a question I don't really have an answer too. I'm having trouble figuring out for myself how wolves would likely react to a scum claim of that nature.
This is indicitive of the types of posts you've made up to this point.
Stalling. Noncommital responses. Personally indecisive.

The reason this is really important will be shown later.

You've made post after post saying "'Person A' has a good point, but I don't know. Let's talk."
Well, your points are all parroted. Parrots don't talk, they mimic.
Virtually everything, if not everything, of any substance that doesn't deal exclusively
with you defending an attack from me (concerning your past) has been a rehash of someone else's point.

Yes, you can agree with another person.
No, you cannot ride coattails.



On that note, let us examine the last three (complete) games you've participated in.

FrozenFlame said:
Alright so, I was catching up and before even continuing on to the page 8, I was beginning to see all the tells that blazer was giving add up. Bad vibes from him combined with some *** backward reasoning (stalling being better than having a well discussed yet potentially wrong lynch? Really? WTF?!) made me ready to consider bringing his behavior up for debate.

Then I clicked page 8.

Brofist @ KevMo.

This mother****er is too good. He quotes my oldschool **** and then take the words straight out of my mouth about Blazer. I basically agree with everything KevMo just said.
Interesting point for the this one: you were scum.

For anyone who wishes to check this message and the one it originally referred to, it's in the Final Fantasy Mafia thread on pages 19 and 21, for the post this refers to and the post itself, respectively.

You REALLY like to agree with people when you are scum. Also, you talked about your bad vibes on Blazer.
On the other hand...let's take a look at Newbie Mafia #1.

Frozen is very direct. He gives excellent analysis of what people are posting. He's INTERESTED. After his birthday party he posts basically every day, even when he had limited access. I can only imagine the snicker on your face when you read Skyler's ****ing post. Like you said, you had it in the bag. You really did.

Not a single time did you mention bad feelings or vibes. You were town.

But that was a newbie game. Surely, being new and inexperienced they left behind numerous clues that you caught onto.
Easily explanable. So, let's consider a game with a higher caliber.

The Simpsons mafia. Surely the newbie count is much lower with this roster. As we observe Frozen's posts, an interesting thing happens.

Not a single time did you mention bad feelings or vibes. You were town.

FrozenFlame said:
Gives me bad vibes of a "**** this argument is too confusing, let's dismiss it, say we've nothing left to accomplish today, and hope the town resigns and hops on an easy bandwagon for a quick day 1" mentality.
On Day 1, you readily agreed to the Delvro lynch when that was the way the wind was blowing.
Here on Day 2, you see two people lined up, and go for a "comfortable with both".
Which way do you think the wind is blowing toDay?

Also, this isn't an attack on people who have bad vibes in general (I myself had some concerning S2 and said so).
But, I do think it's a scum-tell for FrozenFlame.

As a sidenote, I'm mentioning his most recent games since they are the most indicative of his play style.
The oldest game mentioned is a month and a half old. Older games are in the two to two-and-a-half year old range, and I'm sure his play has changed since that time.

FrozenFlame said:
I am however, fairly confident that Soaring Raptor blast is one of Delvro's scum partners. His reaction to Delvro's claim just seemed entirely too phony. I just reeked of a desperate scum facade attempting to legitimize him tossing his partner under the bus after a mafia claim. All in all, it just seemed to me like Delvro's claim and SRB's reaction was a poorly designed and coordinated attempt at a scum play off of one another.
Be careful of such statements. After all, Xiivi already got onto me for not considering
all possible avenues of information gathering. Why not ask some of us whether or not
he seemed phony?

Actually, I'll just accept this as you not knowing much about Raptor, and not being able
to explicitly trust any of us, openly at least.
Mostly, because I don't know much about him myself.
I just see him as his Link avatar in front of a computer saying "Peck...peck...peck...".

Hmm, I just realized something. I'll address it later though.

Basically, you just rephrased Mayling, then tried to make it seem like she supports your position.

FrozenFlame said:
Mayling brings some other good supporting evidence to the table against SRB, and I agree with some of it, but for the most part, I just feel like SRB's initial reaction to the claim is a dead giveaway of his scummyness.
Be specific. What do you agree with? Why?
I won't let you cherry pick reasons that suit your needs at a later time.





FrozenFlame said:
To start off, I'll say that Delvro's post didn't come off as one drenched in lies with the intent of trying to dupe us all. I got serious vibes from that post, meaning that I really think Delvro thought he had a shot at convincing us to keep him alive via his math argument.
It really doesn't matter what he thought, though. What matters is what WE all thought about it, and how he could have shaped our thoughts through manipulative speech. All you are really saying here is that you were sympathetic to what he tried because it reminded you of a younger you.

FrozenFlame said:
The fact that he went through the trouble to try and convince us that mathematically it would be a better strategy to keep him alive really makes me believe that he wasn't scheming with his mafia buddies to manipulate the town via what he says after claiming maf (like what I did in HP mafia as confirmed, resurrected mafia).
Because he said he's a math major, right? You tried it yourself, but failed because of power roles being involved.

There is no way any reasonable player would allow a mafia janitor to live and muddle things up. But Delvro was no janitor; there's no way the town would vote to lynch him, was there? All he had was harmless speech...is that what crossed your mind?

Since we're talking about his post, let's be sure no one else is duped by "a post not drenched in lies", let's examine a few bits about his numbers. Actually, there's just one bit that matters.

IT'S ALL WRONG.

All of his cases suppose one important caveat; That any given situation he described substituted himself with another mafia scumbuddy. Example:

DELVRO said:
Or let's say it's 3 townies, 2 mafia. Normally, that's lylo for town. But since you have a 100% chance of hitting me,

it becomes 3v1, which is NOT lylo since mafia cannot kill! Town's chance of winning increases DRAMATICALLY in this case. (from 10% to 58%)
Delvro's death results in an INCREASE in the probability that a townie would be targeted by any kill action, whether it be lynch or night kill. Ergo, his living would have DECREASED the chance of a town death. This means it's more likely that the final scenario is more likely to be 4v1 than 3v2 like he suggested.
4v1 has much better odds than 3v1.

The more we considered it, the less time we had to use for discussion.
Heck, even now, the fact it is being brought up at all uses time that could be used in other ways. It may seem that we have plenty of time, but this group is pretty lethargic.



The other reason I didn't mention the possibility of asking Frozen about Mentos
is that I didn't think of it. Once Mentos was dead, it was kind of a moot point. We knew he was town.
However, I can't claim full credit for thinking up the idea to ask about scum mentality;
actually, I got the idea from Mentos.

In another game, he had mentioned he wasn't getting scum vibes from Frozen
(I only mention that game here because it is the direct cause of my thinking).
I thought he might have here, though. It makes sense to me that Frozen
silenced him before he had a chance to see Frozen's play after Day 1, and
thus be able to make a connection.

Non-DGamers had no particular reason to go after the new guy.
If one did, it may have been as a courtesy to the rest of us and prevent a jarring
experience from a new personality being introduced. I really doubt that.
Obviously, I would have preferred

I doubt any non-DGamer here is independently reading the archives like me,
so they wouldn't have realized there was a connection between FF and Mentos.
Even if any one of them was a wolf, they'd need Frozen to make that suggestion to him or her.

Ronike...ah, screw it. Pretty much all of my clearing of him is based off of Tom/Mentos's
endorsement. Saying anything else would be lying.

Mentos is dead, and confirmed town. So, I don't think he killed himself.

More food for thought; Xiivi is in the game I got my idea from.
Xiivi was the first one to mention the FF7 game, and knew I'd be reading it.
It's not much of a stretch to think I'd be reading games in which our DGamers have played or are playing in.
(I was reading Tom's too, even after Mentos switched in, but stopped after they died)
The only reason he was excluded from May's list was because he was on Delvro's list.
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

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Yo Cello, I'm really happy for you, and imma let you finish but...

Simpson's mafia had one of the greatest yakkings of all time! OF ALL TIME!

But in all seriousness, I think it's important that I correct you by informing you that I was MAFIA IN SIMPSONS MAFIA. For all the hardcore metagaming your entire case is built off of, I figured it'd be pretty important for you to have your facts straight about that very fundamentally important piece of information. Aside from effectively undoing from the seams the entire first portion of your argument against me, it might get you to rethink your position on me, but your entire approach to the game as a whole.

You bring a lot to the table and I'll be addressing it all in full in due time. Problem is it's 3 AM and I have a long drive @ 9 AM. Need rest. I just wanted to let you know this little tidbit incase you wanted to toss it around in your head for awhile before I blow the rest of your case back to the stone age. Expect a post within 24 hours or so. Cheers.
 

Mister Eric

Twitch.tv/MisterbeepEric Twitter: @MisterbeepEric
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MisterEric
3DS FC
1075-1236-8207
Daaang, this is what I get for being lazy and busy at the same time.

the first thing I want to address is lol at delvro's confession of being scum and attempt to stay alive as scum. even tho this is my 2nd mafia, I can guess that that doesn't happen too often haha. if any of you were wondering what I would have done with the delvro scenario, i would have probably have waited a little before laying down the hammer just to see if he would spit out any more information. but then again I guess that could be a bad idea considering he is scum and he's moreso worrying about his own sake and his pals than anyone else. regardless, I am for the vote ^_^

sorry for flaking out this week. as much time as I thought I would have, and did have for the most part, i felt like i had so many things to do that i barely got one single thing done (the end of the semester is always chaotic for me...i'm bad at organizing :x)

Eric, you still could have put up your opinion, I don't know why you didn't... FOS: Eric Not only for this, but also for saying that he would be around today and basically faded away then.
I said that I was packing up and going home, but none of that was absolutely finished until about 10pm (i had to take my roomie home too) then when I saw the hammer vote I didnt figure I had enough time to thoroughly go through everything and see why all the heat was on delvro and make a post on it. no more excuses though, I'm making myself sit down, read, and contribute on a much regular basis now.

to add some 'substance' to the post...

from what I've been able to gather, besides myself, S2 + Hilt has been the quietest among us, moreso S2.

so for now
FoS: Hilt and Soldier2
 

Cello_Marl

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It's just as important that I fill in the group on something that you implied, but didn't feel
the need to explicitly state.

FROZEN STARTED THAT GAME AS TOWN.
FROZEN ENDED THAT GAME AS MAFIA.

(Mr. Burns {Riddle} could, during the night, choose to die, and convert one townie to the mafia)

One of the reasons I myself didn't state that fact is that I wanted to see what you would respond to, and how. Since you felt that piece was so damaging to my argument, shall we examine what happened in that game?

Oh, just to be clear, for purposes of the Simpsons Mafia, let's ignore the pre-game game.
It was a silly and fun, but doesn't have anything to do with the actual game.

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8459936#post8459936=342

^Refers to the aforementioned pre-game.
RVS vote. Not really pursued by the group.

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8518419#post8518419=429
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8557275#post8557275=536
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8559821#post8559821=547

^This post was you bread-crumbing that you were Duffman (first instance of 3rd person self-reference. Either that or the role requirement just wasn't enforced heavily.)
Frankly, I thought this was the beginning of why they chose to go for you.

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8559978#post8559978=549
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8560103#post8560103=551

Your play up to this point is spot on. You mentioned Kevin's unusual play, you hadn't noticed anything unusual about Marshy, you defended what you realized was a town role making a mistake, and not scum slipping on their own slimy trial.

You were a threat. But why kill when your voice could be used to their ends?

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8637500#post8637500=686

^This is Frozen's first post as a Mafia.
You can also note that his pattern of speech shifts here.
Previous to this post, the only thing he said that could be taken
as frivolous is his RVS vote. Everything else has an obvious point.

Yet, as we can see here from the next few posts...

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8661332#post8661332=720
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8680718#post8680718=738
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8684244#post8684244=745
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8701938#post8701938=756
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8709216#post8709216=767
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8732343#post8732343=780
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8735160#post8735160=782
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8762664#post8762664=833
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8798328#post8798328=858
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8811854#post8811854=866

Suddenly everything is padded out with doubts and, perhaps most importantly, TWO candidates.

Every time.
Every time you point out someone for suspicious behavior, there is always at least a second person.

First Kevin/Jungle (twice)
Then Kevin/(Omni/Steel/KK) (thrice)
Finally Kevin/KK/Rockin
Between Kevin/KK and Kevin/KK/Rockin, you just reiterate various ways to say "The future is murky. Ask again later."

You never do this when you are town. Why?
Because it alleviates pressure.
You have your suspicions. But, when you are/were town, you keep them to yourself until you resolve the matter at hand. Even if you are wrong, it still yields information.
In Simpsons, your style switched.

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GAME.
RIGHT WHEN YOU BECAME MAFIA.


You later also exhibit the same swaying in the direction the wind is blowing attitude you are having here.
To be clear, by doubts I mean putting in essentially "Here's an idea, but I don't really back it personally".
You go with the "general consensus" instead of trying to convince others of your thoughts.
Even later, you go to the same, "Let's talk, but I have nothing to add that you can't directly infer."

Your styles of mafia and town were both in the SAME GAME.
You play like a town when you are.
You play like a mafia when you are.

It's also interesting how you announce your intent to think.
Conferring with scumbuddies takes up a lot of time.

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8812068#post8812068=874

This last post is where he states he was targeted by the Yakuza.
Since that was on Day 1, that is how we know it was post 686 that was his first post as a scum.

Well now, this is interesting and all, but it's merely a history lesson if we don't see where it takes us.
Let us examine this game.

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8857341#post8857341=75
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8876459#post8876459=112
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8877829#post8877829=123
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8879306#post8879306=151
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8887545#post8887545=173

The first post you make that isn't IC explanations, joking around, just agreeing or going with the flow is 173.

You expressed in interest in why I was digging up small things. We all see why I was now, though.
However, even here, all you did was say, "Yeah, what Cello said."
No observations? Of anyone?
Oh, and though it's a bit more subtle, a willingness to look at two people, instead of focusing on one.
That sounds familiar.

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8905109#post8905109=207

Here we have bad vibes AND a paired suggestion.

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=8956132#post8956132=258

Now it's me and SRB. Guess those 'suspicions' of Hilt magically disappeared when it was evident you couldn't blend in with anyone else at the moment.



You once said that your scumhunting technique involved looking past WHAT was posted and into the WHY.

So far, the one defense you've offered other than to disparage my methods has proven more damaging to you than before.

In the spirit of fairness, I'll keep an open mind on your position, however precarious it may be. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Oh yeah, the thing I realized in my last post.
Mayling, was one of the reasons that you thought Raptor and I were scumbuddies because I take so long to post? You didn't mention it, but I thought it may have been a factor.
 

Xiivi

So much for friendship huh...
Premium
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Messages
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somewhere near Mt. Ebott
unvote: cello marlbro 'cause he went somewhere with his argument instead of just relying on ghosts.

vote: frozenflamebro 'cause he's got a fox icon by his name
'cause I like where cello went with it.

FoS: Mister Eric for admitting he's one of the quieter people, and saying he finds the other two quietest people suspicious. There's a difference between being inactive and active lurking. Please clarify why you think those two are active lurking as opposed to just being inactive like you consider yourself to be.
 

Ronike

Smash Ace
Joined
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Messages
612
vote: frozen[\b]

cello's got game. Plus I gots small vibes and I'm willing to ride 'em.
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

BRoomer
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Messages
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The fact that I'm going to have to spend hours responding to this case that has more holes than an archery target greatly upsets me. Unfortunately, it's going to be necessary to show you that metagaming to the extremes that you are Cello, is probably the worst thing you can do when you play with experienced players. I know how to maintain a play style across games and regardless of alignment. These tells that you're picking up on are ridden with hindsight bias and fallacy of equivocation. It's a very sad that it's going to take something of this caliber to show that you have a terrible approach to mafia, but it's necessary.

Anyway, here we go.

I was buddying up to Tom, and by extension, Mentos, on Day 1.
First when I defended him from Xiivi's OMGUS accusation and attack.
And if you're looking for an example that you won't pass off as simply a joke,
then look at when I suspected their shared role was innocent.

The fact of the matter is, I didn't start that after his death, but before.
I'm glad you recognize your first example as joke. Because it is. As for you second, that doesn't constitute buddying either, seeing has how you defend them for an action that was taken not of their own volition. You literally tried to establish them as pro-town based on the timing of the mod's replacement of them. That type of reasoning is complete BS and poor mafia methodology. But more inportantly, the fact that you didn't base your defense of them on an interpretation of their actions, but rather, an appeal to (fallacy ridden) "knowledge" of what a mod would or would not do, is what definitively proves that you were not buddy them, but rather, trying to establish as known fact something that had no reason to be accepted as such.

Regardless though, I'm actaully defending you in part by proving you wrong here. It is quite scummish to go out of one's way to buddy obvious townies. Mafiats have little to loose and much to gain by supporting an easy to push clearing of those they know are town (or distinctly not of their anti-town faction) by virtue of them BEING of that faction.

How is this poor play? It brought you out from your hibernation. Your last post was over a week ago.
To be fair, night lasted for 48 hours. Let's just say you were inactive for 5 days.
Classic new player mistake. Attributing virtue to shoddy performance simply by attributing their play to provoking responses. Just because you got a response from someone does NOT make your play pro-town. Yes, stimulating discussion is good. But just because you were able to provoke a response from someone by directly attacking them doesnt NOT make your play pro-town, especially considering everything you've brought to the table against me is based on extreme metagaming and poor interpretations of what I've done thus far. Though, you bringing this card against me makes sense. Inexperianced scum seem to have an obsession with trying to pile on insurmountable amounts of "evidence" against their targets, as opposed to sticking to quality, core arguments.

[
This is a weak, unsupported argument. You are saying, "If Delvro concocted this plan alone, then he wouldn't say his partners names." Why do you think this? Do you have anything which suggests your argument is correct?
It's just as week and unsupported as every last bit of metagaming evidence you've brought to the table. Pot calling the kettle black here folks. I expressed my expectation of Delvro. That's it. I happen to believe that he did not concoct some ultra devious plan with his scum mates. I'm using Occum's Razor. From what was written, there is nothing present in what Delvro said that leads me to believe he was trying to trick us. If anything, from what was written, I gathered his intentions were to be as cooperative as possible with the town to get rid of the wolves, yet still give his faction a chance by not revealing his partners. Mafia is a game of interpreting intentions, not just reading language and pointing out semantic errors, or trying to build bridges between entirely unrelated pieces of evidence. You'll learn soon enough that all you're doing by stretching the truth as much as you have is trying to convince yourself that you're some master sleuth. You find a correlation and immediately conclude it must but a scum tell when the more logical conclusion is that it is completely innocuous. Your overly suspicious attitude is going to make you a poor town player which will make you perform bad regardless of your faction.

This is indicitive of the types of posts you've made up to this point.
Stalling. Noncommital responses. Personally indecisive.

The reason this is really important will be shown later.
This has been a general trend in almost all of the recent games I've played. I used to be more like you. I'd go out of my way to dig up reasons to be suspicious of someone, and oftentimes end up lynching townies for stupid ghost tells. I don't do that anymore. If I don't have a strong idea of who might be scum, I'm not going to act like I do. Furthermore, since you've been metagaming so much, I'm sure you realized a lot of that stalling can be attributed to my general lack of activity during those games. I was very busy, often traveling on weekends, so the reason i was stalling wasn't because I was scum, but because of RL johns. What you've found is simply a COINCIDENCE and NOT the causation of my performance. This is a GRAVE error in much of your interpretation of my play.

I'm non-committal and indecisive when I REALLY ACTUALLY AM UNDECIDED ABOUT WHO IS/ISN'T A GOOD PLAY! Makes sense doesn't it? Oh wait, of course not, not to someone who's too busy convincing themselves that they've uncovered the Rosseta stone to FF's mafia play.

You've made post after post saying "'Person A' has a good point, but I don't know. Let's talk."
Well, your points are all parroted. Parrots don't talk, they mimic.
Virtually everything, if not everything, of any substance that doesn't deal exclusively
with you defending an attack from me (concerning your past) has been a rehash of someone else's point.

Yes, you can agree with another person.
No, you cannot ride coattails.
Well where do you draw the line? You say I can do one thing, and not another, yet you fail to explicitly state what the difference between the good and bad is. On top of that, you then imply that I'm guilty of an action when you've done nothing to show how I've done it. Why would you do that though? That's too much work for an overconfident mafiat who thinks they can just throw out what they think is/isn't scummy and operate under the assumption that their word is law.

Let's look at this from a reasonable person's standpont. You say me being agreeable is simply me being a parrot. Any reasonable person would look at me agreeing with someone and understand that the person I agree with has exhausted the point and there is no reason for me to MUDDLE OR REWORD THE POINT (like a mafiat would, durrrrrr). If I agree, I agree, and I say just that. There's no reason for me to go to great lengths to clutter the page with a rehash of what has been said.

You then go on to accuse me of only bringing new substance when I'm attacked. How does that not make sense to you? You're trying to twist an entirely townie action (thoroughly defending oneself against fallacious offenses) and make it seem anti-town by juxtaposing it with instances of agreeability.

Anyway, now on to the metagaming muck. Wooo...

Interesting point for the this one: you were scum.

For anyone who wishes to check this message and the one it originally referred to, it's in the Final Fantasy Mafia thread on pages 19 and 21, for the post this refers to and the post itself, respectively.

You REALLY like to agree with people when you are scum. Also, you talked about your bad vibes on Blazer.
As previously established, I agree with people when I, get this, agree with them. This is characteristic of me when I'm genuinely not confident in my own readings of people. Just because I've employed being agreeable with people as scum doesn't mean every time I'm agreeable, I'm scum. Maybe if you were a better player, you'd realize that the key difference in me agreeing with people as town and as scum, is when I'm scum, I agree with people who aren't making sense, or have plans of action that are mislead or not distinctly pro-town. It's not the act of being agreeable that's important, but the WHY BEHIND THE AGREEING. This is where your metagaming fails hardcore. You attribute the surface actions to alignment, when it isn't the ACTION that's important, but the motivation behind it.

On the other hand...let's take a look at Newbie Mafia #1.

Frozen is very direct. He gives excellent analysis of what people are posting. He's INTERESTED. After his birthday party he posts basically every day, even when he had limited access. I can only imagine the snicker on your face when you read Skyler's ****ing post. Like you said, you had it in the bag. You really did.

Not a single time did you mention bad feelings or vibes. You were town.
Again, failure on your part to understand the context. I was not playing with such conviction simply because I was town. I was very explicit and vocal because I WAS VERY CONVINCED OF WHO WAS MAFIA. The tells were obvious to me, I picked up on them, and explained my thoughts to everyone as best as I could.

I wasn't a question of me being mafia or town. The difference in play in this game was my confidence in who the mafiats were. If you look at the early game, I was no where near as vocal as I was near the end. This is because it took time for me to pick up on the tells Skyler and Chaco were putting out. Once I put the pieces together, you see my style change. That's because my confidence changed. Somehow, you acknowledge that you recognized this as a reason for the change in the newbie game, but then are quick to dismiss it as a primary factor when you analyze other games. How peculiar. Sneaky scum attempt to shove the good logic under the carpet and maintain a position based on shoddy logic.

The Simpsons mafia. Surely the newbie count is much lower with this roster. As we observe Frozen's posts, an interesting thing happens.

Not a single time did you mention bad feelings or vibes. You were town.
See this is funny, because you did a piss poor job of trying to tailor Simpson's mafia to your agenda. Let's take a look here:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=8518419&postcount=429
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=8559821&postcount=547
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=8557275&postcount=536

I was town in all of these posts, since they were all on day one. The first one is me basically stalling. I had nothing of substance to say and so I popped in with a one liner and tried to talk to marshy. BUT WAIT, ACCORDING TO CELLO I MUST BE MAFIA IF I'M STALLING! THIS IS CONTRADICTORY, WHO EVER WOULD HAVE THOUGHT?!

In the second link I literally talk about the vibes I get from Kev and Marshy! Another contradiction to Cello's metagaming BS. Just because I don't explicitly say the word "vibes" doesn't mean I'm not discussing them. Analyzing someone stylistically is the same thing as gauging the vibes you get from their text.

In the final post, you can see me being indecisive and having TWO TARGETS, SOMETHING I APPARENTLY ONLY DO WHEN I'M MAFIA. I offer a fairly strong opinion on Kevin, but openly state that I'm clueless on Marshy. Look, I can do all the things that Cello is metagaming as my scumtells, when I'm TOWN. Contradictions people, please don't ignore them. If it isn't obvious that Cello has simply taken the posts that suite his needs and misrepresented them for his own agenda by now, I'm not sure what else I can do.

On Day 1, you readily agreed to the Delvro lynch when that was the way the wind was blowing.
Here on Day 2, you see two people lined up, and go for a "comfortable with both".
Which way do you think the wind is blowing toDay?

Also, this isn't an attack on people who have bad vibes in general (I myself had some concerning S2 and said so).
But, I do think it's a scum-tell for FrozenFlame.
I did not just agree to a Delvro lynch. I was the second person to actually make a case against him, with you being the first. Sold2 didn't really bring anything substantial to the table concerning Delvro, he just had voted him. Despite all this, you accuse me to have simply voted Delvro because "that seemed to be the direction things were going." Complete and utter BS. Yet another example of you trying to flood your posts with "evidence" hoping people wouldn't bother to go back and uncover the truth. You're trying to misconstrue my very pro-town analysis of Delvro as an ANTI-TOWN behavior. It's phenomenal linguistic gymnastics and I applaud your effort as scum to twist my actions to death, but sorry, it wont fly here.

As for my two targets right now, why WOULDN'T I express my suspicions of two people if I legitimately have suspicions of them? I DID establish who I THOUGHT was the better play until this point by PLACING MY VOTE ON SRB! Yet you accuse me of fence sitting! What a joke! Just because I'm convinced that both you and SRB are anti-town and don't mind who gets lynched doesn't mean I'm waiting to see where the "wind will blow" so as to avoid being too abrasive or something. Your accusation is ridiculous. Any reasonable townie would understand that my intention in expressing my top two suspects and comfort in lynching either of them was an effort to CLARIFY MY POSITION AND THUS SHOW MY WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE IN THE LYNCH OF EITHER TARGET, SO AS TO BE TRANSPARENT IN MY INTENTIONS AND NOT JUMP ON A BANDWAGON OUT OF THE BLUE. How is establishing transparency in my suspicions anti-town? You SAY all these things are tells, but NEVER ONCE to you bother to analyze WHY they are. And why is that? Because YOU ARE WRONG AND LYING AND YOU KNOW IT.

Any reasonable townie with two suspects he's confident of would make those suspicions public and clear so he could aid in lynching either of the two, whichever his fellow townies agree most with. How does that not make sense? I'm hoping it will to my fellow townies.



Be careful of such statements. After all, Xiivi already got onto me for not considering
all possible avenues of information gathering. Why not ask some of us whether or not
he seemed phony?

Actually, I'll just accept this as you not knowing much about Raptor, and not being able
to explicitly trust any of us, openly at least.
What kind of crap expectation is this? Who says I was shutting down avenues of information gathering? Where did I say I wouldn't listen to others' opinions on his phonyness? The fact that I brought the post's legitimacy into question and stated that I thought it was phony provides more than enough transparency for that question to be open to discussion. I wasn't tunnel visioning, I was bringing my analysis to the table. But of course, leave it to Cello to once against try to strawman me. I shouldn't have to ASK for your opinions. If I present one, it is EXPECT AS A PART OF THE GAME OF MAFIA THAT OTHERS WILL COMMENT ON IT! So yeah, basically this is just another example of Cello setting a false expectation, calling me out on violating it, and trying to misconstrue my entirely pro-town actions as scummy.

Basically, you just rephrased Mayling, then tried to make it seem like she supports your position.
No idea where you're getting that from. I simply stated I agreed with most of what she had to say. In NO WAY did I assert that she was in support of my position. I simply said my views coincided with mine. Funny that you didn't take this opportunity to accuse me of being over-agreeable and thus, instascum. I guess you're just so caught up in your lie weaving that you forgot to tie this one in.



Be specific. What do you agree with? Why?
I won't let you cherry pick reasons that suit your needs at a later time.
Funny, more of the pot calling the kettle black. So it's ok for you to go back and conveniently quote just what suits your needs, but I can't express a general agreement with someone without spelling it out line by line? I even said I would bring specifics later, but no, of course, you being scum wouldn't give me that chance and are trying to pile on every last thing you can to make me look scummy. Good work.

It really doesn't matter what he thought, though. What matters is what WE all thought about it, and how he could have shaped our thoughts through manipulative speech. All you are really saying here is that you were sympathetic to what he tried because it reminded you of a younger you.
Of course it matters what he thought! How are his intentions as a dead mafiat unimportant? Nice job creating a false dilemma here. Obviously if I'm analyzing the intentions of Delvro, I can't be analyzing others' opinions of his statements. Furthermore, in accordance with Cello logic, one cannot value the intentions of both initial statements AND the reactions of others. Its on or the other in his book, and if you don't explicitly state you are valuing one thing, you must not be. Classic scum work. Use fallacies like false dilemma to make it seem like someone is ignoring or not valuing things when there is no evidence to support it, only evidence to support that someone else IS being valued.

Because he said he's a math major, right? You tried it yourself, but failed because of power roles being involved.

There is no way any reasonable player would allow a mafia janitor to live and muddle things up. But Delvro was no janitor; there's no way the town would vote to lynch him, was there? All he had was harmless speech...is that what crossed your mind?

Since we're talking about his post, let's be sure no one else is duped by "a post not drenched in lies", let's examine a few bits about his numbers. Actually, there's just one bit that matters.

IT'S ALL WRONG.

All of his cases suppose one important caveat; That any given situation he described substituted himself with another mafia scumbuddy. Example:

Delvro's death results in an INCREASE in the probability that a townie would be targeted by any kill action, whether it be lynch or night kill. Ergo, his living would have DECREASED the chance of a town death. This means it's more likely that the final scenario is more likely to be 4v1 than 3v2 like he suggested.
4v1 has much better odds than 3v1.

The more we considered it, the less time we had to use for discussion.
Heck, even now, the fact it is being brought up at all uses time that could be used in other ways. It may seem that we have plenty of time, but this group is pretty lethargic.
You completely lost me in this section. Did you seriously just contend that it was possible for a CLAIMED SCUM TO NOT BE LYNCHED? WHAT?! You compare his situation to mine in saying that I would have certainly been lynched as a revealed Janitor, but Delvro wouldn't be, as claimed mafia goon? What? Have you lost it?

Furthermore, you analysis of the math is awful. It wasn't about him claiming mafia to prevent the wolves from nightkilling townies. You missed the ENTIRE POINT of his attempt to cooperate with the town. His intention was to create a voting block distinctly focused on lynching the wolves first to get the game down to simply mafia v. town. It wasn't about protection townies from wolf nightkills. Furthermore, the fact that you think a 4v1 situation is worse than a 3v1 is laughable. Ever heard of No Lynch? In a 4v1 scenario, you have AN EXTRA DAY AND AN EXTRA NIGHT before you go to lylo. If the seer is alive at this point, that's ANOTHER INVESTIGATION. THAT CAN WIN THE GAME FOR THE TOWN. Your tunnel vision is absurd, next time you try to dismiss something as wrong, try understanding what the objective was first.


The other reason I didn't mention the possibility of asking Frozen about Mentos
is that I didn't think of it. Once Mentos was dead, it was kind of a moot point. We knew he was town.
However, I can't claim full credit for thinking up the idea to ask about scum mentality;
actually, I got the idea from Mentos.

In another game, he had mentioned he wasn't getting scum vibes from Frozen
(I only mention that game here because it is the direct cause of my thinking).
I thought he might have here, though. It makes sense to me that Frozen
silenced him before he had a chance to see Frozen's play after Day 1, and
thus be able to make a connection.

Non-DGamers had no particular reason to go after the new guy.
If one did, it may have been as a courtesy to the rest of us and prevent a jarring
experience from a new personality being introduced. I really doubt that.
Obviously, I would have preferred

I doubt any non-DGamer here is independently reading the archives like me,
so they wouldn't have realized there was a connection between FF and Mentos.
Even if any one of them was a wolf, they'd need Frozen to make that suggestion to him or her.
It's kind of sad that you can't understand that mentos was the best NK choice universally. Tom was inactive. Mentos replaced in and had little to no time to establish himself. NKing him would provide the town with almost no connections to draw once he flipped. He was THE BEST CHOICE. I love how you try to dismiss this pre-emptively by simply stating "non-Dgamers would have no reason to kill him" when in reality, he was the most obvious choice and you know it. Great job killing him though, and then attempting to use metagaming to use his death to frame me. Phenomenal disguising of WIFOM logic combined with awful metagaming. If I was your scum partner, I'd be proud.

One post down. Now on to the next...
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

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Heh, didn't realize that most of your extended analysis of this game and Simpsons is just more of the same piss poor metagaming. My first post effectively covers all of the involved fallacies in your second post.

The only new content in the second post is your analysis of this game. Really, the only question left unanswered is "what happened to your suspicions of Hilt?"

Apparantly if I don't say I'm still suspicious of someone in every post I make, I've clearly forgotten about them. /sarcasm

I'm still slightly suspicious of Hilt. However, relative to you (Cello) or SRB, he isn't nearly as suspicious. I'd rather have you lynched over the other two, and SRB before Hilt. Thus, my focus right now is discussing my top two suspects. That's how I get **** done in mafia, regardless of alignment. This is the fundamental reason why your metagaming fails miserably.

Ronike, Xiivi, I'm deeply disgraced that my fellow ICs are actually going along with Cello's garble.

You guys are getting duped by slip-shod metagaming. METAGAMING. It's pretty embarrassing to say the least.
 

soaring-raptor-blast

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wow i have a lot to address.

This is my official attack on Raptor and Cello_Marl. I believe that both of them are Delvro's Mafia buddies, and I'm going to try and show you why in how they interacted with each other.

First of all, let's examine Raptor's posts. They are the following:

#159

Doesn't contribute too much... accuses Ronike of OMGUS, but nothing else. What is interesting is that Ronike is one of the few people Delvro attacks.

#176

Doesn't contribute anything...

#194

Here he defends S2's agressive style.* (See how this comes into important play later.)



Oh? Not too fond of the argument on Greg? I thought it was because "things were getting heated up" but it could be possible he wanted the argument to be dropped cause Greg's his scum buddy!

#195

Another filler post...

#206

Another filler post...(sorry if I hurt your feelings in that post, though, Raptor. hugs)



Finally the first post with substance. However, he's the first person to vote for Delvro after Delvro has come clean as scum. Tandora is the other to hammer. The people to vote for Delvro before he came out was Xiivi, Ronike, Cello_Marl, FrozenFlame, and S2.

The reason why I mention this, is that I think this was Raptor's way of throwing Greg under the bus... too little too late though. >_< What I know of Raptor's style is that he doesn't like to throw his buddies under the bus... however, with Delvro claiming he had little choice but to comply.

Let's move onto how I think Cello_Marl plays into this:



One thing I noticed is that Cello_Marl and Raptor are the only two people who commented on Delvro's choice of wolves. (hmmm, interesting, hmmmmmm)

In my opinion, Delvro's choice of wolves resulted from getting flustered to the point he gave up and decided to point out who he thought was wolves.

that would mean: S2, Xiivi, and FF are not mafia.

If we consider what Cello_Marl said, then one of them is possibly a mafia buddy. In this case, I think it would be S2, because.... the interaction between Xiivi and FF between Delvro is imo too stressed to be staged. That leaves S2. Also, if you consider Raptor's earlier defendence of S2, I think that would point to a scum linking on Raptor's behalf.

Okay, so let's look at who is in this game (still alive.)

Mayling, Frozenflame, Xiivi, Cello_Marl, Raptor, Mister Eric, S2, Tandora, Hilt.

Now look at the bolded part of what Cello_Marl did. He suggested we ignore Delvro's self-claim post as well. Why? Is it because if we look at the list in an educated manner, we can see who Delvro's scum buddies are.

If we assume that Xiivi, FF, and S2 are not Mafia, then we have

Mayling, Cello_Marl, Raptor, Mister Eric, Tandora, Hilt.

I know Delvro isn't afraid to bus his mafia buddies... In fact he likes to defend who thinks is innocent so he can get on their good side. So, he defended Mister Eric... so we can take him out. I'm taking myself out as well... because I do believe he defended me... and for all intents and purposes of this list, I know I'm not mafia.

Cello_Marl, Raptor, Tandora, Hilt.

If by now you are believing any part of this argument, Raptor fos'd Tandora. I don't think he'd be one to fos'd a fellow mafia, because like I mentioned before, he's not one to bus.

Cello_Marl, Raptor, Hilt.

I'm taking off Hilt because the only interaction he's really had is with FF... I dont know what to read of that. Plus I think there's other evidence to back up my claims on Cello_Marl and Raptor.

Also remember, Cello_Marl was debating with Xiivi about *wolves*, and one of the few comments that Raptor made was about Ronike... both who Delvro debated with, one time or another.

Therefore... I conclude that cello_marl and raptor are Greg's mafia buddies! :mad:

My question is ... what do we do? Because if we lynched these fellas... won't the werewolves eat our face at night?

I think... if we lynched these two back to back... it would be 3 townies vs two werewolves... because their night kill will be eating our face. this is also assuming I'm not wrong about either one of them. However, I'm fairly confident that they are his scum buddies.

For now, I will

Vote: Soaring-Raptor-Blast

there is soo much here that is wrong >_<

my FOS of you just stronger so

SUPER FOS: MAYLING!!!

you cleared people for really bad reasons. you and eric were "defended" by greg. why would this make you innocent? because greg dosent mind bussing? he still wouldnt want his scumbuddies dead regaurdless. in fact, I FOS'd you in the first place because greg defended you. you said you completely understood my FoS on you, and here, you try and turn it around to make you seem innocent.... feeling the bad vibes.

you cleared tandora because I FoS'd her and Im not one to "bus". the last AIM mafia game we played, where I was mafia, I hammered EVERY SINGLE ONE of my scum partners. so why do you think I wouldnt FoS a a fellow mafia member if I were one?

you cleared hilt because... you dont have a read on him? :dizzy:

this logic just screams "anti-town player trying to set up a mislynch".
your accusations from other games usually tend to have a lot more beef to them (when you are pro town) because its your honest suspiscions.
here it just feels like your trying to make a really big arguement out of nothing, and trying to make it seem like super scum-hunting. I think maybe your attack on me was partially based off the fact that I FoS'd you in my last post.

also I didnt "defend" s2. I just confirmed that he usually has an aggressive playstyle. I still dont like the way s2 has been playing this game. it's totally different than his usual approach to mafia.





I understand completely why I would be a suspect. Your accusation on Tandora needs justification, however. How did she interact with Greg specifically to link her as his mafia buddy?
I FoS'd tandora because she didnt have very much to say about the argument against Delvro. she seemed to be gone for the better part of the attacks against him, and when she did finally make a post she blamed her hesitation to post her thoughts on "the tone of the thread" which made her uncomfortable (i think... lost my quote :( )

then, when she decided to comment on delvro, she said she thought he might be a seer. I was like " WHAAaaAAAAaaaTT???". i didnt see anything in his posts that even remotely made him seem like a seer. however, if she was mafia too, she would have wanted to get the town off greg's back by spreading fear that he could be seer. makes sense right? i FoS'd her because it seemed like a pretty scum-like thing to do and nobody else seemed to catch it.

That said. people are suspicious of me and cello, which i think is kinda bogus. I mean... I guess I see why I would be a suspect because I'm not as helpful as most people here, but I just dont get the attacks against him. it seems like he has been doing a great deal of scum hunting, and to me, it seems pretty honest.

I'm starting to suspicious of the people that are agreeing with may and her janky jank attack. I would most definately not clear the people she did, for the reasons she stated.

and one more thing i noticed...

Classic new player mistake. Attributing virtue to shoddy performance simply by attributing their play to provoking responses. Just because you got a response from someone does NOT make your play pro-town. Yes, stimulating discussion is good. But just because you were able to provoke a response from someone by directly attacking them doesnt NOT make your play pro-town, especially considering everything you've brought to the table against me is based on extreme metagaming and poor interpretations of what I've done thus far. Though, you bringing this card against me makes sense. Inexperianced scum seem to have an obsession with trying to pile on insurmountable amounts of "evidence" against their targets, as opposed to sticking to quality, core arguments.

I dont think he was basing anything off the fact that he GOT a response from you. the fact that you lied in your response (or chose to leave out the fact that you WERE mafia for at least part of that game) made you seem pretty suspicious.... to me anyway

so

FoS: frozen flame

no vote still. i think this day phase is gonna get messy and I dont wanna cast a vote yet. :urg:
 

Xiivi

So much for friendship huh...
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unvote:

cell vs. frieza is looking pretty TvT at this point, if one of them was a bg I'd say it was the green one.

Ronike, Xiivi, I'm deeply disgraced that my fellow ICs are actually going along with Cello's garble.

You guys are getting duped by slip-shod metagaming. METAGAMING. It's pretty embarrassing to say the least.
I'm def like one of the weakest players in this game. Everyone should know that. :D

Ronike gained 15 scum points though. Shame on him.

---

Soaring-Raptor-Blast!!!!! Why use Super FoS when you can use Super Vote!?

Super Vote: Mister Eric

See how cool it was? Now hop on with me if you're town 'cause the dude's a bg. :)

Or you can vote your biggest suspect instead of sidelining the day away and sneaking onto a lynch again like last time. ;)
 

Ronike

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Messages
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Xarbon (yeah I know its with a z, but I wanted to look cool too), shame upon you for falling for ff's shameless appeal to your SAYAIN pride.

At any rate, it looks even to me. Not town v town, but both sides have their points and null points. So I guess for now I Unvote until I get better vibes from one side or the other.

Note: Unlike the terribly scummy person above me, Im not caving to freiza's evil pressure, but rather I also have realized Im going to have to scumhunt differently even for people I do know since they are going to be acting differently in this environment.
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

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wow i have a lot to address.I dont think he was basing anything off the fact that he GOT a response from you. the fact that you lied in your response (or chose to leave out the fact that you WERE mafia for at least part of that game) made you seem pretty suspicious.... to me anyway

so

FoS: frozen flame
Wrong. Read it again.

Cell Marl said:
How is this poor play? It brought you out from your hibernation. Your last post was over a week ago.
To be fair, night lasted for 48 hours. Let's just say you were inactive for 5 days.
He only discusses the "merits"of his actions as they relate to provoking activity from me. No where does he mention me "lying". Not that he would, since I DIDN'T LIE.

I said "Simpson's mafia had one of the greatest yakkings of all time!" That's me saying, I WAS town, but for most of the game I was mafia. I never said I was never town in that game.

FOS: Xiivi

Clear lack of desire to get involved in probably the most important debate this game has seen screams "Oh ****, my scum partner's case just got leveled, I better back the **** off before he goes after me too." Won't say I'm unhappy with the unvote, but just blowing everything that has been said off as TvT leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Definitely wouldn't be surprised if you and Cello flip werewolf.

Unvote: SRB Vote: Cello

No idea how I forgot to do that in my last post. One of these two needs to go. Definitely more confident of Cello being a werewolf now. I definitely still see SRB as scum but I'd rather take out a wolf.

Ronike you've got a lot of explaining to do man. EGMEOY.

Very interested to hear the opinions of everyone else on Me v. Cello now that both of us have had said our pieces.
 

Xiivi

So much for friendship huh...
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****, what am I gonna have to do to earn a vote around here?

But nah, go ahead and both of you summarize your cases on each other in like 5 sentences at most. It'd be really nice to see what your core arguments against each other are. Since I just see Cello being Omni v2.0 and Frozen picking at a lot of little different things.
 

soaring-raptor-blast

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unvote:

cell vs. frieza is looking pretty TvT at this point, if one of them was a bg I'd say it was the green one.



I'm def like one of the weakest players in this game. Everyone should know that. :D

Ronike gained 15 scum points though. Shame on him.

---

Soaring-Raptor-Blast!!!!! Why use Super FoS when you can use Super Vote!?

Super Vote: Mister Eric

See how cool it was? Now hop on with me if you're town 'cause the dude's a bg. :)

Or you can vote your biggest suspect instead of sidelining the day away and sneaking onto a lynch again like last time. ;)
Super vote?!?!?!? mah lawd!!! it DOES look cool!!!

I want to hear from mayling (my biggest suspect) and if she does what i think she is gonna do, then I will super vote the crap outta her! ^_^ kay? happy now? ;)

I said "Simpson's mafia had one of the greatest yakkings of all time!" That's me saying, I WAS town, but for most of the game I was mafia. I never said I was never town in that game.
oh sorry, im not familiar with the word "yakking".

duly noted
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

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I five sentence summary of that behemoth post would be challenging. I'll see what I can do tomorrow.

And just to clarify for you SRB, "yakking" refers to the ability of the Yakuza mafia role.

A yakuza is a mafia role that allows that mafia player to commit suicide one night and choose one non-mafia player and convert them into a mafia player. What happened in Simpsons mafia is I was town aligned Duffman for all of day one. Night one, Riddle (the mafia Yakuza) suicided and picked me to convert. So from day two onward, I was mafia aligned.

Speaking of Duffman, a point I forgot to make in my big post was that I wasn't breadcrumbing my Duffman role. I HAD to speak in the third person. It was a posting restriction.
 

DtJ S2n

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From what I see, Cello is voting FrozenFlame based off of a general trend of his past actions, compared to how he's playing now. This is what's been referred to as metagaming if I understood correctly. And FrozenFlame is accusing Cello of relying too much on a weak argument, and twisting things to confuse the town.

I personally agree with FrozenFlame here. I've always felt that it's not reliable to judge alignment by comparing past games to current ones. Especially true for Forum mafia, opposed to AIM mafia, where people have much more time to think out their reply. FrozenFlame is a good player from what I see, and I doubt he'd use the same tactic as town or scum every time. Cello did seem to be twisting the situation too, using a mountain of "evidence," distracting you from the flaws in his argument.

FrozenFlame, is there anything you go by that's shorter? Your name is long.
FrozenFlame, I'd like to see a summary of your argument too.

Cello, why did you leave out the posts that Frozen brought up?
Cello, do you have any single, "core" argument?

SRB, why is your main suspect Mayling?
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

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FF or Frozen are common nicknames I'm called by here. Whatever works.

I'm leaving now to go to club meetings. I'll be done around 10 PM EST. I'll try to get a summary of what I've said up sometime between 10 and 11.
 

Cello_Marl

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I wasn't finished with you Frozen.

If it's any consolation to you, I can assure you I won't be using these arguments again, and if you actually READ this post, you'll find out why.

@Xiivi I'll include a summary at the end of this post, but there are many points I would like to address in further detail.

When you woke up this morning, what pant leg did you put on first? If you are right-handed, it's almost a certainty that it was your right leg. Why? Because people develop habits and preferences based on nature and nurture. Habits such as that which you demonstrated by your play a scant 2~3 weeks ago.

It's obvious that people here are just skimming through posts due to the large amount of material. You'll see why I say that in this post.

Let's think about Frozen's past few posts, starting with #267. (Not a link)

FrozenFallacy said:
The fact that I'm going to have to spend hours responding to this case that has more holes than an archery target greatly upsets me. Unfortunately, it's going to be necessary to show you that metagaming to the extremes that you are Cello, is probably the worst thing you can do when you play with experienced players. I know how to maintain a play style across games and regardless of alignment. These tells that you're picking up on are ridden with hindsight bias and fallacy of equivocation. It's a very sad that it's going to take something of this caliber to show that you have a terrible approach to mafia, but it's necessary.
This reeks of appeal to authority. You are the experienced player (actually, the most experienced of the ones you left alive), so we are to blindly assume you can maintain a certain play style?

And just how are we to judge that for certain? We can't look at what you've done in the past as a gauge. Oh wait, that was according to you.

I would think that since the rest of your post deals primarily with logical fallacy, that you wouldn't begin with one. I guess experience isn't everything.


FrozenFrog said:
I'm glad you recognize your first example as joke. Because it is. As for you second, that doesn't constitute buddying either, seeing has how you defend them for an action that was taken not of their own volition. You literally tried to establish them as pro-town based on the timing of the mod's replacement of them. That type of reasoning is complete BS and poor mafia methodology. But more inportantly, the fact that you didn't base your defense of them on an interpretation of their actions, but rather, an appeal to (fallacy ridden) "knowledge" of what a mod would or would not do, is what definitively proves that you were not buddy them, but rather, trying to establish as known fact something that had no reason to be accepted as such.

Regardless though, I'm actaully defending you in part by proving you wrong here. It is quite scummish to go out of one's way to buddy obvious townies. Mafiats have little to loose and much to gain by supporting an easy to push clearing of those they know are town (or distinctly not of their anti-town faction) by virtue of them BEING of that faction.
This is the first bit that shows Frozen isn't really reading anything about what I'm doing here. Funny that he didn't take the time to realize the points he made here, before. Ronike previously talked (extensively) about scum getting defensive under pressure. But rather than attack my arguments in this fashion, Frozen opted to attack me.

Now, why would Frozen go out of his way to point out that this is a defense of me?
He wants to appear softer as his outburst wanes, so he doesn't alienate the town.

FrozenFallacy said:
Classic new player mistake. Attributing virtue to shoddy performance simply by attributing their play to provoking responses. Just because you got a response from someone does NOT make your play pro-town. Yes, stimulating discussion is good. But just because you were able to provoke a response from someone by directly attacking them doesnt NOT make your play pro-town, especially considering everything you've brought to the table against me is based on extreme metagaming and poor interpretations of what I've done thus far. Though, you bringing this card against me makes sense. Inexperianced scum seem to have an obsession with trying to pile on insurmountable amounts of "evidence" against their targets, as opposed to sticking to quality, core arguments.
"KevinM's style is consistent, but his content is off." How in this not an analysis of his past play? How is this acceptable for you and not a person you do not know? How is this not that dreaded thing you so vehemently despise? This looks like a good time to address one of your "quality, core arguments" against my own case. Metagaming.

What is metagaming? Using information outside of the context of the game/system to aid the decision making process. It has a negative connotation due to Table-top RPGs (which I'm sure most of us here have played at one time or another).

Why is metagaming bad? In the case of Mafia in general, the obvious reasoning is that
it is unreliable in the long term. This makes sense enough, and is not to be disputed; if a cat wanders into the road and is hit by a car, it will be less likely to make that mistake again (either because it is dead or will remember the experience).

After this game, FrozenFlame will certainly be more wary of his play style, and likely won't be making the unconscious slips he has been.

You speak of other "quality, core" arguments as though they produce indisputable evidence. This is ridiculous. You have shown a pattern of action over time. Your mafia play was rewarded with victory and positive reinforcement. Your town play should have been reinforced as well, if not for TUSM. Obviously, you felt that your own play was spot on here and wasn't going to change it. Without an outside stimulus there would be no reason to alter your style. And. You. Haven't.

Can five million psychologists be wrong? Yes, logically. (argumentum ad verecundiam and Argumentum ad populum, or appeal to authority and the masses)
But going with their findings will provide someone with a statistically higher percent chance of success.

Concerning what you said in the quote, you are correct. What I have done is NOT pro-town simply by it's nature. I would be making this play whether I was scum or town. But, what you had attacked the QUALITY of my play and my arguments, in an effort to discredit me for use at a later time. i.e. "Cello has bad play, we can't listen to what he says."
To this end, you are continuing to use your appeal to authority as an experienced player.
"Classic new player mistake". That phrase truly is worthy of the term topic sentence.

FrozenFallacy said:
It's just as week and unsupported as every last bit of metagaming evidence you've brought to the table. Pot calling the kettle black here folks. I expressed my expectation of Delvro. That's it. I happen to believe that he did not concoct some ultra devious plan with his scum mates. I'm using Occum's Razor. From what was written, there is nothing present in what Delvro said that leads me to believe he was trying to trick us. If anything, from what was written, I gathered his intentions were to be as cooperative as possible with the town to get rid of the wolves, yet still give his faction a chance by not revealing his partners. Mafia is a game of interpreting intentions, not just reading language and pointing out semantic errors, or trying to build bridges between entirely unrelated pieces of evidence. You'll learn soon enough that all you're doing by stretching the truth as much as you have is trying to convince yourself that you're some master sleuth. You find a correlation and immediately conclude it must but a scum tell when the more logical conclusion is that it is completely innocuous. Your overly suspicious attitude is going to make you a poor town player which will make you perform bad regardless of your faction.
"From what was written". Funny how you talk tout your ability and the necessity to look past what is written. On that note, let's see what else was written here. Then let's see past it.

You are trying really hard to associate every argument I make with my metagaming, even though they are clearly separate entities. You are trying to group them all together because you believe that makes my arguments look bad. I'm seeing the beginning of an ad hominem attack here as well. "Cello is just trying to make himself look intelligent and thoughtful. He's just doing this to make himself look good."

A correlation exists here. I just drew the line of best fit.

CondescendingFlame said:
This has been a general trend in almost all of the recent games I've played. I used to be more like you. I'd go out of my way to dig up reasons to be suspicious of someone, and oftentimes end up lynching townies for stupid ghost tells. I don't do that anymore. If I don't have a strong idea of who might be scum, I'm not going to act like I do.
When you don't have a strong idea who the scum is, you try to find out.
Use whatever methods you like. I'd expect you to not sit like a knot on a log, though.
In this case, doubly so, since you are an IC.

FrozenSCUMTELLRIGHTHERE said:
Furthermore, since you've been metagaming so much, I'm sure you realized a lot of that stalling can be attributed to my general lack of activity during those games. I was very busy, often traveling on weekends, so the reason i was stalling wasn't because I was scum, but because of RL johns. What you've found is simply a COINCIDENCE and NOT the causation of my performance. This is a GRAVE error in much of your interpretation of my play.
So, let me get this straight: the reason you were stalling and not contributing is because you don't have enough time? So, in that case, why would you EVER want to stall? Why not actually use your time to contribute?

FiredUpFlame said:
I'm non-committal and indecisive when I REALLY ACTUALLY AM UNDECIDED ABOUT WHO IS/ISN'T A GOOD PLAY! Makes sense doesn't it? Oh wait, of course not, not to someone who's too busy convincing themselves that they've uncovered the Rosseta stone to FF's mafia play.
And there's the rest of the ad hominem. Didn't take Frozen very long for that.

But really, undecided? You're going to claim that you totally agreed with me on Delvro (I did take words from your mouth), then once again here on Day 2 with May against SRB (He just REEKED of scum bussing, remember?), then turn around and say you were undecided?

FrozenFallacy said:
Well where do you draw the line? You say I can do one thing, and not another, yet you fail to explicitly state what the difference between the good and bad is. On top of that, you then imply that I'm guilty of an action when you've done nothing to show how I've done it. Why would you do that though? That's too much work for an overconfident mafiat who thinks they can just throw out what they think is/isn't scummy and operate under the assumption that their word is law.
Here is the second part that indicates Frozen doesn't read posts and just skims through for information.

Coattails = letting everyone else do the work
Agreeing = pulling your own weight

I'll give an example. When Mayling accused me and Raptor, I was ready to point out the flaws in her argument. The very ones Hilt posted while I was gathering information.
Instead of getting mad, even though I was slightly irked I didn't get to say them, I went back to find other points to contribute. If you can't find ANYTHING relevant, then maybe you aren't playing the right game.

Later on in your post, you admit to stalling in this game.

FrozenBully said:
Let's look at this from a reasonable person's standpont. You say me being agreeable is simply me being a parrot. Any reasonable person would look at me agreeing with someone and understand that the person I agree with has exhausted the point and there is no reason for me to MUDDLE OR REWORD THE POINT (like a mafiat would, durrrrrr). If I agree, I agree, and I say just that. There's no reason for me to go to great lengths to clutter the page with a rehash of what has been said.
And anyone that disagrees with you is unreasonable?
That's the most likely alternative suggestion to what you are saying.

FrozenFlame: "What you aren't realizing is that anyone who doesn't want to go to war, is gay."
The Group: "I want to go to war!" "No, I want to go to war!" "I was the first who wanted to go to war!"

Is that what you've learned from being on the debate team?
Even my team was better organized than that.

You then go on to accuse me of only bringing new substance when I'm attacked. How does that not make sense to you? You're trying to twist an entirely townie action (thoroughly defending oneself against fallacious offenses) and make it seem anti-town by juxtaposing it with instances of agreeability.[/QUOTE]

You are trying to redirect the subject here.

Imperfect Cello said:
Virtually everything, if not everything, of any substance that doesn't deal exclusively
with you defending an attack from me (concerning your past) has been a rehash of someone else's point.
Defending yourself against an attack from your past has nothing to do with rehashing other presented viewpoints. How could it? That's why I didn't claim you tried.
This was just an attempt to keep saying the word "town" and your own name so that people associate them. We are creatures of association.

After all, 5 million psychologists can't be wrong.

FrozenFallacy said:
As previously established, I agree with people when I, get this, agree with them. This is characteristic of me when I'm genuinely not confident in my own readings of people. Just because I've employed being agreeable with people as scum doesn't mean every time I'm agreeable, I'm scum. Maybe if you were a better player, you'd realize that the key difference in me agreeing with people as town and as scum, is when I'm scum, I agree with people who aren't making sense, or have plans of action that are mislead or not distinctly pro-town. It's not the act of being agreeable that's important, but the WHY BEHIND THE AGREEING. This is where your metagaming fails hardcore. You attribute the surface actions to alignment, when it isn't the ACTION that's important, but the motivation behind it.
Let's take a look at what this 'agreeable' bit refers to.

FrozenCoattail said:
Brofist @ KevMo.

This mother****er is too good. He quotes my oldschool **** and then take the words straight out of my mouth about Blazer. I basically agree with everything KevMo just said.
Little extreme there. Oh, but didn't I take the words out of your mouth too? The words themselves are immaterial and missing importance, since your style has had a bit of time to mature. But then again... there's really no reason for you to have changed, eh?

If I were a better player? Better, or one that had more credentials than you?
Another ad hominem attack. Followed by another attempted association with metagaming.

FrozenFallacy said:
Again, failure on your part to understand the context. I was not playing with such conviction simply because I was town. I was very explicit and vocal because I WAS VERY CONVINCED OF WHO WAS MAFIA. The tells were obvious to me, I picked up on them, and explained my thoughts to everyone as best as I could.

I wasn't a question of me being mafia or town. The difference in play in this game was my confidence in who the mafiats were. If you look at the early game, I was no where near as vocal as I was near the end. This is because it took time for me to pick up on the tells Skyler and Chaco were putting out. Once I put the pieces together, you see my style change. That's because my confidence changed. Somehow, you acknowledge that you recognized this as a reason for the change in the newbie game, but then are quick to dismiss it as a primary factor when you analyze other games. How peculiar. Sneaky scum attempt to shove the good logic under the carpet and maintain a position based on shoddy logic.
More attacks on my personal failings. I won't mention any more, since if anyone is actually reading this, then you get the idea by now. Moreover, something I don't think you are realizing is that style is not defined by a single action. How you act through a whole game is your style. Let's see what you had to say about your style.

SoundAdviceGivingFrozen said:
FF's strategy for scumhunting D1 is the way FF scumhunts at all times. Read posts and attempt to deduce the whys behind them. Motivation is everything in forum mafia. People can say anything, and WHAT is said is often misleading. Figuring out why people take the time to post what they do is where the scumtells are at.

When things are moving slow though, FF will typically bring fresh scumtell material to the forefront and gauge what people think about it. Discussion is always key.
You were the one that said it was ironic you were being accusing of not scum-hunting when the May-Ronike debacle was still on everyone's minds. Was there no fresh material to bring to the front then? You got nothing from that? I'll admit, I was timid about getting involved, and I others said as such too, but now that we are a bit calmer, combing through it might yield something of interest.

Yet you got really defensive when Hilt called you out. Delvro and Hilt's votes seemed to be pressure votes, whereas yours with mine was something that was never going to come off, unless, of course, we did decide to go with Hilt. Your scum-hunting ship has really good tacking doesn't it?

FrozenLoudMeansRight said:
I was town in all of these posts, since they were all on day one. The first one is me basically stalling. I had nothing of substance to say and so I popped in with a one liner and tried to talk to marshy. BUT WAIT, ACCORDING TO CELLO I MUST BE MAFIA IF I'M STALLING! THIS IS CONTRADICTORY, WHO EVER WOULD HAVE THOUGHT?!
How poignant. Still, the Marshy line was pretty much the same as we got here in three whole posts. The first and third are obvious, and the second was a post expected of an IC plus a "pressure vote". Frankly, it seemed more to me like you were just trying to get close to Tandora so you could exploit her later.

AdmitsToMETAGAMINGFlame said:
In the second link I literally talk about the vibes I get from Kev and Marshy! Another contradiction to Cello's metagaming BS. Just because I don't explicitly say the word "vibes" doesn't mean I'm not discussing them. Analyzing someone stylistically is the same thing as gauging the vibes you get from their text.
Examining someone's style is metagaming by it's very nature. Either it's fine or it's BS.

FrozenExtendingArmNitoriMarkTwoFlame said:
In the final post, you can see me being indecisive and having TWO TARGETS, SOMETHING I APPARENTLY ONLY DO WHEN I'M MAFIA. I offer a fairly strong opinion on Kevin, but openly state that I'm clueless on Marshy. Look, I can do all the things that Cello is metagaming as my scumtells, when I'm TOWN. Contradictions people, please don't ignore them. If it isn't obvious that Cello has simply taken the posts that suite his needs and misrepresented them for his own agenda by now, I'm not sure what else I can do.
I would bet my firstborn child that most of the people here aren't going to the other threads to read these bits. So I'll just post them here as quotes.

FrozenFlame said:
FF's strategy for scumhunting D1 is the way FF scumhunts at all times. Read posts and attempt to deduce the whys behind them. Motivation is everything in forum mafia. People can say anything, and WHAT is said is often misleading. Figuring out why people take the time to post what they do is where the scumtells are at.

When things are moving slow though, FF will typically bring fresh scumtell material to the forefront and gauge what people think about it. Discussion is always key.

Kev and Marshy seem to be playing normally. Stylistically speaking, FF wouldn't say that their playstyles are out of the ordinary. However, FF does contend that KevinM's piss poor lynch pool is highly scummy regardless of how he presented it. His style was fine, but his content is way off.

No read on Marshy atm.
FrozenFlame said:
Cacti's claim is legit IMO. Ned Flanders with no CC? That's pretty solid in FF's book.

His role is worse than a normal doctors. He can only protect vanilla townies, or PRs that don't act at night. All he can do is find out who PRs are, but he can't save them if they act. Mega nerfed doc role.

Not sure where all the suspicion on Riddle is coming from. His analysis of the claim is mostly accurate. "he wouldn't think of that" argument is pretty weak but the other stuff is logically sound.

FF is no fan of the newbie card either, but a huge part of early game in mafia is being able to tell the difference between noob/innocent slips and actual scumtells. Bearing Cactis claim in mind, he's certainly not the play for today.

Very suspicious of KevinM atm. He clearly didn't take any time to consider what Cacti meant by his roleclaim. Furthermore, he says his only two candidates are Cacti and Riddle, both of which FF sees no reason for targeting. Very telling of skimming. Ergo, scummy.

Vote: KevinM
Who's the one reaching now? Clueless on a person is NOT suspicion. You aren't just skimming in this game, you somehow manage to skim on YOUR OWN POSTS. In "the most important topic so far" for this game, you're screwing up like this?

Even if you somehow were town, I know I wouldn't want to take you with me to the final Day. You'd drop the ball like TUSM did.
That's too mean to actually say. But I want you to know it crossed my mind.

OnlyConsidersVotesFlame said:
I did not just agree to a Delvro lynch. I was the second person to actually make a case against him, with you being the first. Sold2 didn't really bring anything substantial to the table concerning Delvro, he just had voted him. Despite all this, you accuse me to have simply voted Delvro because "that seemed to be the direction things were going." Complete and utter BS. Yet another example of you trying to flood your posts with "evidence" hoping people wouldn't bother to go back and uncover the truth. You're trying to misconstrue my very pro-town analysis of Delvro as an ANTI-TOWN behavior. It's phenomenal linguistic gymnastics and I applaud your effort as scum to twist my actions to death, but sorry, it wont fly here.
You would have to be buried under a rock to not think people would be gunning for Delvro.
He was instigating "Roniker", Hilt introduced the point that excessive wolf talk would indicate mafia alignment, and S2's vote got the ball rolling. It would draw attention to Delvro that he did not withstand.

Of course, maybe that's how the three of you planned it.

FrozenMadAgain said:
As for my two targets right now, why WOULDN'T I express my suspicions of two people if I legitimately have suspicions of them? I DID establish who I THOUGHT was the better play until this point by PLACING MY VOTE ON SRB! Yet you accuse me of fence sitting! What a joke! Just because I'm convinced that both you and SRB are anti-town and don't mind who gets lynched doesn't mean I'm waiting to see where the "wind will blow" so as to avoid being too abrasive or something. Your accusation is ridiculous. Any reasonable townie would understand that my intention in expressing my top two suspects and comfort in lynching either of them was an effort to CLARIFY MY POSITION AND THUS SHOW MY WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE IN THE LYNCH OF EITHER TARGET, SO AS TO BE TRANSPARENT IN MY INTENTIONS AND NOT JUMP ON A BANDWAGON OUT OF THE BLUE. How is establishing transparency in my suspicions anti-town? You SAY all these things are tells, but NEVER ONCE to you bother to analyze WHY they are. And why is that? Because YOU ARE WRONG AND LYING AND YOU KNOW IT.
I HAVE pointed out how it doesn't jive with your play style.
I HAVE explained these tells, and you tried to hand-wave them away.

If you are loud enough and disparaging enough, then people will flock to you.
That's what you are relying on here. 5 million psychologists can't be wrong.

Lying. Show me ONCE where I've lied.

FrozenBullyMarkII said:
Any reasonable townie with two suspects he's confident of would make those suspicions public and clear so he could aid in lynching either of the two, whichever his fellow townies agree most with. How does that not make sense? I'm hoping it will to my fellow townies.
Something bothered me when I first read this, and I realize why now.
You make it sound like like a townie COULDN'T aid in a lynch unless there was clear and present proof that he wanted that person lynched.

ThisIsFROZEN said:
What kind of crap expectation is this? Who says I was shutting down avenues of information gathering? Where did I say I wouldn't listen to others' opinions on his phonyness? The fact that I brought the post's legitimacy into question and stated that I thought it was phony provides more than enough transparency for that question to be open to discussion. I wasn't tunnel visioning, I was bringing my analysis to the table. But of course, leave it to Cello to once against try to strawman me. I shouldn't have to ASK for your opinions. If I present one, it is EXPECT AS A PART OF THE GAME OF MAFIA THAT OTHERS WILL COMMENT ON IT! So yeah, basically this is just another example of Cello setting a false expectation, calling me out on violating it, and trying to misconstrue my entirely pro-town actions as scummy.
Anyone remember when Hilt asked Frozen a question about who he thought was suspicious? Hilt put a pressure vote on him to get a response and then...

FrozenHeart said:
This is a joke right? You asked me who I was suspicious off, and then proceed to dismiss my post about Delvro and Cello? I'm sorry, do you need me to write you a personal letter with a nice formatted excel spread sheet with every player's suspicion ranking in numerical order inside, signed and dated by me, to answer your petty question? You've no right to accuse me of joking around when all you've done is asked pointless questions FROM THE SIDELINES.
From your response to Hilt, you had everyone else cowed. Do you really think anyone else would be coming forward after that little tirade? No. Especially since Hilt just accepted it.
YOU closed those avenues of communication all by yourself long ago. Moreover, you had no reason to open them up again unless it suited your needs. People are creatures of habit. 5 million psychologists can't be wrong.

Huh. Gathering information beyond the simple text. Imagine that.

ILikeFrozenScumI'llUseItAgain said:
No idea where you're getting that from. I simply stated I agreed with most of what she had to say. In NO WAY did I assert that she was in support of my position. I simply said my views coincided with mine. Funny that you didn't take this opportunity to accuse me of being over-agreeable and thus, instascum. I guess you're just so caught up in your lie weaving that you forgot to tie this one in.
AlsoFrozenFlame said:
Mayling brings some other good supporting evidence to the table against SRB, and I agree with some of it, but for the most part, I just feel like SRB's initial reaction to the claim is a dead giveaway of his scummyness.
The whole feel of the part of your post where you "simply agreed" makes it seem like you were making the initial reaction to Delvro's claim the end-all be-all of the case against SRB. Mayling offers good "supporting evidence". Remember, these are your own words.
This next part is hilarious.

FrozenDidn'tReadOneParagraphUp said:
Funny, more of the pot calling the kettle black. So it's ok for you to go back and conveniently quote just what suits your needs, but I can't express a general agreement with someone without spelling it out line by line? I even said I would bring specifics later, but no, of course, you being scum wouldn't give me that chance and are trying to pile on every last thing you can to make me look scummy. Good work.
This is in reference to the quote Mayling makes just above this. Yet, despite having it RIGHT THERE, Frozen still manages to "have no idea where I'm coming from".
Tunnel-vision with blinders must be a new fad.

No one will believe you are a hurt little lamb here, Frozen. Don't even try.
Quotes are set in stone statements that cannot be altered.
An open statement that could be interpreted dozens of ways is the exact opposite.

MindReadingFlame said:
Of course it matters what he thought! How are his intentions as a dead mafiat unimportant? Nice job creating a false dilemma here. Obviously if I'm analyzing the intentions of Delvro, I can't be analyzing others' opinions of his statements. Furthermore, in accordance with Cello logic, one cannot value the intentions of both initial statements AND the reactions of others. Its on or the other in his book, and if you don't explicitly state you are valuing one thing, you must not be. Classic scum work. Use fallacies like false dilemma to make it seem like someone is ignoring or not valuing things when there is no evidence to support it, only evidence to support that someone else IS being valued.
False dilemma, eh? Now, that's funny...
Falsum in uno, falsum in omnibus, false in one thing, false in them all.
Almost all of your post is describing my incompetence and how it poisons all of my arguments. Fear-mongering.

Now, when did I say you couldn't evaluate multiple statements? I said that the why behind what Delvro said was unimportant, and potentially harmful if we were swayed by what he was saying. That's a far sight from imposing sanctions against thought.



As a note, I'm going to skip the next one, because I think it's worthy of a post all of it's own.

Suffice it to say for now that it is the truest proof of Frozen's skimming and tunnel-vision.


FrozenTunnel said:
It's kind of sad that you can't understand that mentos was the best NK choice universally. Tom was inactive. Mentos replaced in and had little to no time to establish himself. NKing him would provide the town with almost no connections to draw once he flipped. He was THE BEST CHOICE. I love how you try to dismiss this pre-emptively by simply stating "non-Dgamers would have no reason to kill him" when in reality, he was the most obvious choice and you know it. Great job killing him though, and then attempting to use metagaming to use his death to frame me. Phenomenal disguising of WIFOM logic combined with awful metagaming. If I was your scum partner, I'd be proud.
You know, I didn't realize that I posted the uncleaned notepad version of my thoughts until now.
(When I'm at work, I don't have internet access. If I get bored, I'll mull over my impressions of this game, then come home to find information to disprove my impressions. If I don't find any, I look for those that support them)
At the time, I was actually thinking it could have been Xiivi too, since he mentioned the FF7 game for metahunting. On that note, why did you do nothing to discourage metagaming then? Why did you wait until it was a direct assault on you?

He was the best choice. I agree. I don't think the non-DGamers do.
They all saw my post saying I'd go for the most talkative. I think they would go for a frame job, or ask an IC partner if he or she had one. Ask your own partner, he'll tell you that's the case. Oh, after this game, would you send me your chat logs? I'd love to read them.

FrozenWithAGenuinelyInterestingComment said:
Ronike, Xiivi, I'm deeply disgraced that my fellow ICs are actually going along with Cello's garble.
Ronike called this one for me.

Ronike said:
Xarbon (yeah I know its with a z, but I wanted to look cool too), shame upon you for falling for ff's shameless appeal to your SAYAIN pride.
He also said something else that was interesting.

Ronike said:
I also have realized Im going to have to scumhunt differently even for people I do know since they are going to be acting differently in this environment.
This is probably the best argument against CONTINUAL metagaming that I've heard. Unlike Frozen's reusable Experience card, I could only point out his habits once.
From this point on, I CAN'T use that sort of meta, since he/they will be more wary of his/their actions.




Just in case you didn't notice, my responses ARE in fact chock full of logical holes this time. But a logical fallacy doesn't negate truth. 5 million psychologists can't be wrong.

Stop pretending this is a logic puzzle on Grey Labyrinth. Almost all of the arguments made in mafia are logical fallacies. Spending time arguing about it is time that we are wasting.

WIFOM is a logical fallacy. But the many instances of these occurring for Frozen is more likely the slip up of a human being.



These are in order of importance.

The Five Major Points:

1) His repeated recent behavior suggests he is likely performing in his scum playing style.
2) He's skimming articles and posts instead of reading them, and I can prove it.
3) Lack of forthrightness concerning game-relevant information, as compared to
game-mechanics information. He's insistent upon casting doubt and suspicion on less
capable players rather than investigating or even mentioning the possibility that it was
a newbish mistake. (Raptor and Hilt, plus when he talked about his role in Simpsons)
4) Hypocrisy in that he insists on refuting my points with logic arguments while maintaining
a right to use metalogic himself due to an appeal to his own authority.
5) Extremely defensive play. Reacts explosively to most inquiries, resulting in timidity
and aloofness.
 

Cello_Marl

Smash Rookie
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Messages
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FrozenSkimMilk said:
The fact that he went through the trouble to try and convince us that mathematically it would be a better strategy to keep him alive really makes me believe that he wasn't scheming with his mafia buddies to manipulate the town via what he says after claiming maf (like what I did in HP mafia as confirmed, resurrected mafia).
Cello Q. of Marl's Kingdom said:
Because he said he's a math major, right? You tried it yourself, but failed because of power roles being involved.

There is no way any reasonable player would allow a mafia janitor to live and muddle things up. But Delvro was no janitor; there's no way the town would vote to lynch him, was there? All he had was harmless speech...is that what crossed your mind?

Since we're talking about his post, let's be sure no one else is duped by "a post not drenched in lies", let's examine a few bits about his numbers. Actually, there's just one bit that matters.

IT'S ALL WRONG.

All of his cases suppose one important caveat; That any given situation he described substituted himself with another mafia scumbuddy. Example:

Delvro's death results in an INCREASE in the probability that a townie would be targeted by any kill action, whether it be lynch or night kill. Ergo, his living would have DECREASED the chance of a town death. This means it's more likely

that the final scenario is more likely to be 4v1 than 3v2 like he suggested.
4v1 has much better odds than 3v1.

The more we considered it, the less time we had to use for discussion.
Heck, even now, the fact it is being brought up at all uses time that could be used in other ways. It may seem that we have plenty of time, but this group is pretty lethargic.
FrozenSkimMilk said:
You completely lost me in this section. Did you seriously just contend that it was possible for a CLAIMED SCUM TO NOT BE LYNCHED? WHAT?! You compare his situation to mine in saying that I would have certainly been lynched as a revealed Janitor, but Delvro wouldn't be, as claimed mafia goon? What? Have you lost it? Furthermore, you analysis of the math is awful. It wasn't about him claiming mafia to prevent the wolves from nightkilling townies. You missed the ENTIRE POINT of his attempt to cooperate with the town. His intention was to create a voting block distinctly focused on lynching the wolves first to get the game down to simply mafia v. town. It wasn't about protection townies from wolf nightkills. Furthermore, the fact that you think a 4v1 situation is worse than a 3v1 is laughable. Ever heard of No Lynch? In a 4v1 scenario, you have AN EXTRA DAY AND AN EXTRA NIGHT before you go to lylo. If the seer is alive at this point, that's ANOTHER INVESTIGATION. THAT CAN WIN THE GAME FOR THE TOWN. Your tunnel vision is absurd, next time you try to dismiss something as wrong, try understanding what the objective was
first.
I'll sugarcoat this for you. Bless your heart.

I'll rewrite the above section in simpler terms so you can understand.
I'm also putting this in a separate post and including the original so people can compare my "rewrite" to it
without going through the muck of any other posts.



Delvro suggested/claimed that his being alive increased town's chances of victory at endgame.
You thought Delvro thought he had a genuine shot at convincing us to leave him alive, and
that it was not a scheme to manipulate the town.

I asked if you thought that was the case because he is a math major, then mentioned that you tried it yourself.
I then said there was no way your group would have left you alive in that game, but suggested that you may have
thought that we would not lynch him because the circumstances were different, and he couldn't affect our decisions.

I said that his reasoning was incorrect because the scenarios he described in which he was dead supposed a mafia
member would be alive instead.

The LESS mafia members there are, the MORE likely a townie will be targetted by the wolf night kill.
The MORE mafia members there are, the LESS likely a townie will be targetted by the wolf night kill.

If you consider there are 7 townies and 3 mafia, 4 and 1 will have died respectively to get to his scenario of 3v2.
It's an 80% chance that Delvro's death would have been substitued with a townie, and not a mafia.

Ergo, 80% of the time, the final scenario would have been 4 townies versus 1 mafia.
His scenario would put us at 3 townies versus 1 mafia.

4 townies versus 1 mafia has better odds of success for town than 3 townies versus 1 mafia.

I ended by saying we don't have much time.

I hope this was helpful. I added some numbers to help you comprehend the math a little better.



Now that that business is out of the way, I'll address your response.
How do you know what his intentions were? Moreover, create a voting block against wolves?
That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard, ever.
If Delvro created a voting block with his group, then if Delvro said, "That's not a wolf." then the town
would KNOW that person was one of his scummates.
(Now I kind of wish we HAD kept him alive. That would have been a jewel to see.)
Why in the WORLD would the townies go No Lynch? The only kill is the lynch by this point.
At that point, the Seer is a confirmable townie, but his or her investigation is USELESS since it only finds wolves.

Next time you try to argue a point, READ IT.
I find this to be conclusive proof of Frozen's skimming through posts to attack other people.
Please read it carefully so that you come to the same conclusion.
 

Cello_Marl

Smash Rookie
Joined
Nov 4, 2009
Messages
0
Soldier2. Good to have you back with us.

Why didn't you post anything concerning this topic yesterday afternoon?
I'm just curious.
 
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