My take on the matchup-
Long Range:
TL dominates with projectiles, Marth's only option is to try and close the gap. This is one of TLs two optimal positions in the matchup (I'll talk about the other later) as he is at no risk and can rack up damage or even setup kills. Boomerang and arrows should be easy to PS or swat, bombs are a little tougher to get through. Try not to let the boomerang get behind you, because it can lead to some nasty setups on the way back. Your best bet is to walk > shield everything until you reach Marth's favorite position in this matchup, tipper range.
Advantage- Toon Link
Tipper Range:
This would be the "green zone" that Steel described in the zones thread. At this range; dtilt, fair, jab, nair, and DB are all viable while his only option that doesn't put him in too much danger is zair. While zair does beat out all of Marth's options in terms of range, it isn't difficult to defend against. If he jumps and airdodges, be ready to shield or PS and immediately punish. Zair autocancels, so if he zairs right before landing your best option is a dtilt (or grab if he is close enough). He will either eat the dtilt which you can follow up on, or he will shield it. I think we all know how the dtilt trap works so I won't go into that. If they zair earlier in the jump and you shield it, DB or fair are your best punishers. Another thing about zair, if your opponent tends to zair without airdodging, you can ftilt or jab before the zair comes out. While zair is his safest option, TL can also nair and weave back out. Not totally safe, but it's a great setup if it connects. If TL SH nairs, be ready for an arrow cancel as he lands. If he is grounded, you can SHFair, SHDFair, SHFFFair, dtilt, or use a DB1 mixup. Any of these will work so long as they are well spaced. Most TLs won't attempt to shield grab your fairs, but if they do tend to try it just buffer a roll and punish with usmash. If during any time in this situation he has a bomb in hand you'll need to watch out. TL will undoubtedly try one of two things when Marth has him around tipper range: retreat or get inside Marth's range. If he has a bomb in hand, it's difficult to stop him from getting some space. He will find his first oppurtunity to either jump back and toss it in your face or JC a backwards bomb throw. Try to PS the bomb and get back inside on him, if that doesn't happen you'll have to get through his projectile walls again. If he doesn't have a bomb, he might try a retreating fair, nair, or zair to give him self some space. The first two will probably end with an arrow cancel as he lands so be weary of that. None of those options are fool-proof, any of your anti air moves should take care of it if you react fast enough (jab, nair, etc). He may also try to get inside your sword range instead of retreating, if this is the case you should move back with retreating fairs and do all you can to keep him at bay, because if he gets you at pointblank range, it can be troublesome.
Advantage- Marth
Point Blank Range:
You may have read a thread about "Boxing" by Pierce7d in the Tactical Discussion Forum. If you have, you'd know that one of Marth's weakpoints is fighting at point blank range, this also happens to be one of TL's strongpoints. His bair and utilt can combo extremely well, his jab is great from close range, and to top it off he has the best spot dodge in the game. The good thing is that moves like TL's jab are extremely risky against Marth unless used to punish because his OoS punishing game is so good. However, you may eat a bair/utilt chain if he catches you in the air so try not to expose yourself. You shouldn't find yourself in this situation very often if you are spacing well. And it isn't very difficult to get out either.
Advantage- Toon Link
TL above Marth:
While juggling is usually one of Marth's best options, TL has the tools to make juggling him very difficult. When he is above you, expect him to rain down some bombs on you. If you are on the ground and he is throwing down bombs, there is pretty much nothing you can do. So if you see him plucking out a bomb try going up high after him, if he tries to throw the bomb down at you and you are close enough, you'll both take damage and you can uair immediately out of hitstun without him really being able to do anything about it. You can try and hit the bomb with the tip of your sword as well, if you are successful the explosion won't reach you and only he will take damage, thats a bit difficult to do though so don't rely on it. If you'd rather not risk taking the fight high into the air, you can just defend yourself from the bombs until he lands and continue the fight that way. If you are at a stage with platforms when he is above you, then his options are much more limited. Like at BF for example, if you just wait under the central platform until he gets close you can setup a quick juggle trap. A quick note; TL is extremely floaty, so he is able to stay in the air for much longer than most characters. If you do something stupid like whiff an uair while you are below him, he might dair you. Otherwise dair isn't really a threat, in fact you should try and bait it if possible since it has considerable cooldown.
Advantage- None
Marth above TL:
This is TL's other favorite scenario that I talked about earlier. Being probably Marth's worst situation in general, TL has a field day when Marth is above him. TL, similarly to Marth, struggles with killing, but having Marth above him can lead to quite a few setups that serve as a nice remedy to his killing problems. He can SH and throw a bomb up, if the bomb hits, Marth takes damage and is still in the air. If Marth airdodges the bomb, TL can punish the lag with a powerful uair. He can also throw two bombs in the air to make it even more difficult for Marth to land safely. When you are in this position as Marth, your best option is to make your way to a ledge. Marth isn't great on the ledge either but it's better than being stuck above him.
Advantage- Toon Link
TL Offstage/On Ledge:
When TL is off stage Marth has a lot of oppurtunities to gimp TL or at least deal damage. If he is recovering low enough, you can drop down and counter his up B. Another option when he is recovering low is to grab the ledge and force him onto the stage where you can get a free ledgehop aerial of your choice. If he recovers mid-high, you can go out with a fair, bair, or nair if they like to airdodge. If he pulls out a bomb just get close enough to him that the bomb won't be effective. It is possible to spike him out of his up B, I actually do it pretty often while hanging on the ledge. When he is on the ledge, he can't really get up safely without somehow incorporating his projectiles. He can pull out bombs or throw a boomerang to give himself some time to get up safely. Expect some zair stalling on the ledge, remember that he can regrab the ledge via zair three times before landing on stage. While he is grabbed onto the ledge, you want to stay about a dtilt's length away from the ledge so you have adequate space to punish all of his options without putting yourself in danger.
Advantage- Marth
Marth Offstage/On ledge:
Like usual, always DI up because when you are forced to recover low, your options are extremely limited and easy to read. He can pretty much toss out any projectile at you and they all work well. This is another great oppurtunity for TL to setup traps; if you have to airdodge a projectile he can punish the lag with a nair or fair which will likely kill you. He can also do bomb drops and what not around where he expects you to DS so try to mix it up. You can DS stage spike him if he is reckless so take advantage of an oppurtunity to do so if it shows itself. Make sure your DS has enough height to get you on stage, because he can easily regain invincibility with zair. He gets a free ledgehopped fair if you land onstage with him on the ledge but its better than death. When on the ledge, ledge drop fairs are a great way to clear yourself some room to get on the stage safely. Any of your other options besides ledge jumps (below 100%) may be punished. And even ledgejumps may stick you in a bad situation.
Advantage- Toon Link
Killing:
Both characters share the same fatal flaw, the lack of safe kill moves. As Marth, you'll be trying to force him off stage constantly as that is where your easiest kills will come from. A fresh bair off stage will usually kill quite early depending on the position and he doesn't have many options to combat it. Again, nair off stage is an excellent option against opponents who like to airdodge off stage. On stage, your best kill move is probably dsmash. If you PS something you usually have enough time to connect a dsmash. From TL's standpoint, most kills will come from projectile setups or gimps. Bombs and boomerangs give enough hitstun to let TL deliver a hyphen smash if Marth is close enough. Off stage, as I went over before TL will attempt to setup traps to force you into a situation where you have to eat a fair. I'm not gonna keep mentioning things here that I already mentioned in other sections so I'll just wrap this up here.
Advantage- None
Overall: Even though TL has more seperate advantages, the majority of the match will be with Marth in TL's face but just out of TL's sword range. This is wher Marth thrives the most.
Rating: 55:45 or 60:40 Marth
60:40 for sure, I'm pushing for 65:35 lolol
