Disjointed by the "Random" option

[Finding Waldo]

I have been playing the game since opening day, and have seemed to notice some strange occurrences with the "Random" option, the character one in particular.

Is it just me, or does it seem like there are actually set "themes" instead of randomness? For example, I have had many a match-up, where I, as say, Captain Falcon, would end up facing a Captain Falcon as my opponent. This may not seem like such a hard thing to accomplish, but I believe that the odds of that happening (using a 36-character roster) would be 1 in 36^2, or 1 in 1296. Well, I have had it happen a lot more than every 1296 fights. Instead, it's about 1 in 8. I have even had it happen where 3 characters are the same.

Does it not strike you as odd that such a thing could continously happen? How random is the system really?

Or is it just me that is experiencing this?

 

[Yinlong]

ive noticed that i get lucas alot when i play random computers with yoshi
but iono if its set up that way

 

[cjrocker]

From my experience there's no set theme with the random option-apart from random stage select-so you're probably just getting lucky.

 

[Ilex]

3 times in almost consecutive order I've faced a Bowser on Battlefield when I was playing as Pikachu. The stage was random too. It might be luck, but I wouldn't put it past Sakurai to place themes into the Random option.

 

[Finding Waldo]

It has actually started to irritate me. I think that the odds are upped for fighting the same character. I get a lot of Pikachu, but my Stage Selection has about 50 choices, so the stage often changes. But it seems as if there are SOME kind of themes... I will try to keep track of any I notice.

 

[Puffs]

I get doubles and triples a lot, too. It really doesn't seem that random. Same thing happens with assist trophies. During AT matches or in training, I usually get a certain five ATs more often than anyone else, most of them appear twice in a row.

 

[Super_Sonic8677]

I get doubles and triples a lot, too. It really doesn't seem that random. Same thing happens with assist trophies. During AT matches or in training, I usually get a certain five ATs more often than anyone else, most of them appear twice in a row.

That's exactly how my game is....

 

[Finding Waldo]

Well, it seems we may have stumbled upon something we were not supposed to know about. I know that I get Munchlax 75% of the time, but I think that is my own luck.

This is really starting to interest me now...

 

[Darkurai]

Some Pokémon and Assist Trophies are supposed to appear more than others, and some, such as Manaphy, are supposed to hardly ever appear.

However, the character select and stage select are supposed to be pure random.

Yet I find myself constantly being put on custom stages. Granted, I have more custom stages than normal stages, but I hardly ever play a normal stage when choosing random.

I think there's a reason why there was an Action Replay code for Melee that was called "Truly Random Stage Select".

 

[Finding Waldo]

The code was in Melee? I never noticed this happening there...

Yes, I know about the different odds for Pokemon and assist trophies, but for stages and characters, it should not be. I could use such a code for Brawl.

 

[Percon]

Sakurai is sitting is his lab right now, with screens hooked up to every smash bros game currently being played. He sets up characters as he chooses and makes it so that you get odd combinations often, such as thee yoshis and a bowser.

Also, he hits the trip button whenever he feels like being a ****

 

[popsofctown]

if two players are both picking random, or if one is picking a character and the other is picking random, the odds of a ditto is 1 in 36.

The odds of having captain falcon dittoes, out of a random v. random match, is 1/1296. However, if you weren't actually trying to observe captain falcon specifically, which you probably weren't, it is only unusual as a ditto, which is 1/36.

1/8 is still and eyebrow raiser, just don't get the math wrong and say that you can be 1295/1296 certain that sakurai rigged it.

 

[Finding Waldo]

It is ironic that you chose Captain Falcon, because I actually do get the most copies with him. (Unless of course it relates to my post up top.) I have had quite a few Blood Falcon costumes against the whatever the pink one is called. (At least 3). But it could always be coincidence.

I like that math, but I know that it is not correct. I know that I once learned what the odds of the theoretical probability actually occurring is (Some sort of nifty formula), but I do not want to bring too much math into these boards. (And I cannot recall it at the time.)

 

[chaosscizzors]

i get ditto characters all the time when i use random, i just assumed there was a "theme" or something going on just looking at the opponets that i get. and i've never gotten a custom stage picked randomly for me, i have them turned on in the options but idk...

 

[Finding Waldo]

i get ditto characters all the time when i use random, i just assumed there was a "theme" or something going on just looking at the opponets that i get. and i've never gotten a custom stage picked randomly for me, i have them turned on in the options but idk...

I know for a fact that if your stages are on an SD Card instead of the Wii system, then they will not show up in Random Stage. It took me awhile, since I wanted my Custom Stages more than the regular at the time, and me and my friend learned what the problem was.

Now I want to figure out what the themes are...

 

[chaosscizzors]

really now? thanks for that bit of info, i think i've found my problem right there.

 

[E.M.]

Fighting random CPU's for a while will start to show some weirdness. I play CF, Fox, and Snake ALOT. Many times when switching from one character to another, say from Snake to Fox, the next match will have me fighting Snake. I get these three characters more than others.

You know what's funny? For a whole month I played with Bowser, Ganon, and Shiek against random CPU's. Guess which opponents I was given to fight most?

 

[Finding Waldo]

Fighting random CPU's for a while will start to show some weirdness. I play CF, Fox, and Snake ALOT. Many times when switching from one character to another, say from Snake to Fox, the next match will have me fighting Snake. I get these three characters more than others.

You know what's funny? For a whole month I played with Bowser, Ganon, and Shiek against random CPU's. Guess which opponents I was given to fight most?

The first or second three? Or was it a trick question?

 

[Huber]

I do lot of random dittos with my buddies and we've noticed this too. We notice that a lot of the time it is themed. Like Mario Vs. Bowser, Mario Vs. Luigi, Link Vs. Ganondorf etc.

 

[Samuelson]

I actually havn't noticed "themes" when choosing random. I guess I will have to keep an eye open now.

 

[JustKindaBoredUKno]

There's a thread like this somewhere...

Yeah, the game has a sense of humor.

I actually think it might have something to do with the way the game is loaded. Random usually loads pretty fast for me, so it probly picks whatevers the most convenient, so if you pick link, the next thing it'll load is zelda or something, since its right there.

idk. just a theory

 

[Roihu]

I have never EVER gotten a Pikachu in random.
And I always get DK which screws me up. I get DK like every time I pick random.
I also get Marth Vs. Marth a lot in randoms. =\

 

[Frown]

It's probably just luck, but I got 3 Munchlaxes in a row once. O_o

 

[Roihu]

It's probably just luck, but I got 3 Munchlaxes in a row once. O_o

Pokeballs have odds. Random isn't supposed to.

 

[Sean²]

Something similar has happened to me a lot...while fighting random CPUs, I'll fight the same 4 or 5 characters much more often than the rest of the cast, and then if I restart the game, it'll be the same thing, but with different characters.

 

[ixdnL]

Sakurai is sitting is his lab right now, with screens hooked up to every smash bros game currently being played. He sets up characters as he chooses and makes it so that you get odd combinations often, such as thee yoshis and a bowser.

Also, he hits the trip button whenever he feels like being a ****

So that's why it takes longer to load some matches! He isn't perfect after all.

 

[Finding Waldo]

Originally Posted by Percon
Sakurai is sitting is his lab right now, with screens hooked up to every smash bros game currently being played. He sets up characters as he chooses and makes it so that you get odd combinations often, such as thee yoshis and a bowser.

Also, he hits the trip button whenever he feels like being a ****

Well, that is a theory I never heard. But now everything makes sense.

But serious now, I wonder if it changes with each game reload? Because I do get the same few characters, and perhaps I am only noticing this after it happens a few times, and not keeping track each time I start the game which ones they are.

 

[Corigames]

I have been playing the game since opening day, and have seemed to notice some strange occurrences with the "Random" option, the character one in particular.

Is it just me, or does it seem like there are actually set "themes" instead of randomness? For example, I have had many a match-up, where I, as say, Captain Falcon, would end up facing a Captain Falcon as my opponent. This may not seem like such a hard thing to accomplish, but I believe that the odds of that happening (using a 36-character roster) would be 1 in 36^2, or 1 in 1296. Well, I have had it happen a lot more than every 1296 fights. Instead, it's about 1 in 8. I have even had it happen where 3 characters are the same.

Does it not strike you as odd that such a thing could continously happen? How random is the system really?

Or is it just me that is experiencing this?

Get a room with 50-75 people in it. Ask them to all tell you what their birthday is. Chances are, there will be at least 2 people that share one. You have been taught that statistics should say that the possibility of that occurring is 1 in 357 (or something like that), however, that's not the truth. Odds aren't that easy, especially when you are talking about character selection code that may be progrramed a certain way.

 

[Ilex]

It's probably just luck, but I got 3 Munchlaxes in a row once. O_o

I've gotten 9 Munchlaxes in a row in training. One time I also throw out a Kyogre, following by a Latias, then Latios, Lugia, another Kyogre, Moltres, and another Kyogre.

 

[BOTA]

I've gotten 9 Munchlaxes in a row in training. One time I also throw out a Kyogre, following by a Latias, then Latios, Lugia, another Kyogre, Moltres, and another Kyogre.

O.o if that was in a actual battle you would of destroyed.

anyway... i notice this too sometimes it seems if you are marth one round then change to someone else the computer will be marth. Its happened to me a bunch of times

 

[Finding Waldo]

Well, I think it is happening too often to be coincidence. I have been through plenty of math classes, but these odds are worse than 1 in 367 (366 people could be in a room and all have different birthdays, but one more is a guarantee) for getting two of the same character in a single match.

There have simply been too many people that are experiencing the same thing.

 

[~rh]

When I pick random, I always get MK, Snake or Fox.

I never seem to get someone like Wario, Yoshi or IC's.

Hm. =/

 

[Hoeloe]

Playing random matches for about an hour, I ended up with IC vs DDD about 4 times. Not on the same stage, but the same characters. I also didn't get over three quarters of the roster, it does look as though there are themes in there. I mean, Sakurai added tripping, why not themes in the random selection?

 

[Finding Waldo]

Yes, and now that I get to thinking, instead of actual themes, it could instead be "weighted", where Sakurai's favorite characters have a better chance of showing than others.

 

[Darkwashu]

I noticed that as soon as you unlock a character, I faced him in random.
While not exactly bad, it might give a new player a way to see what (s)hes like.

 

[Phaazoid]

if two players are both picking random, or if one is picking a character and the other is picking random, the odds of a ditto is 1 in 36.

The odds of having captain falcon dittoes, out of a random v. random match, is 1/1296. However, if you weren't actually trying to observe captain falcon specifically, which you probably weren't, it is only unusual as a ditto, which is 1/36.

1/8 is still and eyebrow raiser, just don't get the math wrong and say that you can be 1295/1296 certain that sakurai rigged it.

what are are the chances of getting a second cyan G@W twice in a row? that happened to me. then i got 4 DK in a row, and haven't touched random since.

 

[Wizard99]

I once played a random battle against a friend and we both got the same color and character. 2 White lucarios and there was no tint difference like in team mode...

 

[Tien2500]

The chances of getting the same character in a row would be this...

Odds of getting a character in random (any character) is 1.
Odds of getting them a second time is 1:36.
Odds of a thirds time is 1:36squared.
Odds of a forth time is 1:36cubed.
So the odds of getting a character 4 times is... 1 out of 46,656

 

[Bowser King]

I get peach a lot. She always comes in the daisy costume (I don't know If it works like that or something but I faced 3 of them today).

 

[Marth Xero]

Lawl, whenever I use random I get Marth (main), and IC(secondary).
but then it'll throw Link in there, who is my worst character