How to Theorycraft

[SuSa]

Theorycraft is practical, realistic, and can be applied to matchups. Contrary to the ever-so-wide that all theorycraft is bad and only proven data in matches should matter. That is why I created this thread, and I hope you read the entire thing before commenting.


As mentioned in my previous thread about matchups I was interested in making this thread but wanted to make sure people read it. I've decided to go ahead and make this thread.

Be prepared for one hell of a read. Skimping out on the content will lead to misconceptions or misunderstandings of what I'm trying to get across here.

I'm going to go under the impression that everyone has an idea of what theorycrafting is. While many disagree with the idea of it and want in-game data to support arguments and many other things - I will attempt to show people how important theorycraft is.

Another thing before we start, take all theorycraft with a grain of salt. Very rarely is theorycrafting perfect, so you always have to keep this in mind.


THESE ARE MY VIEWS FEEL FREE TO DISAGREE WITH THEM!!!


I divide theorycrafting into three levels. These levels are

• Theoretical
• Practical
• Realistic

Now many of you may think that makes very sense. Isn't all theorycraft "theoretical"? Well... this is why this thread is going to be long. I will begin to explain these three levels, and how to properly apply theorycraft to matches.

Theoretical​

Theoretical theorycraft (how weird does that sound when you say it?) is theorycraft which has been proven to be as such. Just theorycraft. It's only theoretically possible but not humanly possible.

Here is a quick example:
Meta Knight can shut down Sonic using only Dtilt and Up-B

This, in theory, is true. But it is not realistically possible. This should be fairly obvious, but that is because I used an extreme example for that purpose. Theoretical theorycraft is, in theory, perfectly true. However you can see why using this strong of theorycraft is bad.

At all costs, you want to avoid using theorycraft of this level. It is simply unrealistic.

Practical​

Practical theorycraft is within the realms of possibility, but deals with human factors that are not measurable or hard to take into account. At this level, things have to be taken with a large grain of salt. While the theory is practical, it's still not realistic. Practically - I should be able to powershield every move in the game that takes longer than 12~ frames - the average human reaction time.

However as many matches have shown, this only holds true to an extent. There are other factors that occur which make this theory have holes. It's perfectly find to state what I did, and it is backed with data, but it will not 100% always be true.

Many people, myself included, use this level of theorycraft - and it's perfectly valid. It's the interpretation and how you state the data that causes problems and arguments to occur. Both parties need to have the initial understanding that this theory is more of a "% of the time" than an "always" (which is what theoretical theorycraft is).

Your example:
I can practically powershield 90% of Ganon's moveset and therefore should never lose to a Ganon if I play off reaction. This is true to a large degree, but that would mean I should always JV-4 a Ganon. I have a few times, but it's not always the case and I have come very close to losing to Ganon's.

I can't really think of a better way to say anything I have, and I've repeated myself a few times to try and make a point... so I'll leave on my example and this statement.

Realistic​

Realistic theorycraft isn't even theorycraft in a sense..... It's usually backed by data and facts that are measureable and cannot be disputed, but given it's context I consider it a part of theorycraft.

An example being:
Mario dies at 108% from Snake's utilt when it is fresh if Mario has perfect DI. This is far earlier than Mario can kill Snake.

Would you agree that is a fact? Or would you consider it theory? I myself consider it a little bit of both, especially because of the second statement. The second statement could be proven false if I can gimp or spike Snake before 108% is that right? Other's would argue "Well duh, but we're speaking about on the stage with an attack" and blah blah blah. This is why it becomes theorycraft.

If I just stated the first part, is it fact or theory? I would still consider it both.

How to apply Theorycraft​

Okay, so I split theorycraft into three levels. Now how do you use it?

• Do not use theoretical theorycraft. Ever.
• Try to restrict your use of Practical Theorycraft
• Make sure your using correct data for Realistic Theorycraft

Outside of that list, which should be a no brainer, let's go over one last aspect of theorycraft that is extremely important......

BE ABLE TO ARGUE BOTH SIDES

If you do not know your opponents options in a given scenario, your theorycraft will be flawed! This means before you even attempt to theorycraft in the "Practical" area, study your opponents character. Make sure you know enough of their options to compare to your own, make sure it falls into a realistic human capability; and then you can argue it.

This is where most people fail in their theorycraft. They are ignorant of the other sides options and do not take them into account when they theorycraft. This makes their theorycraft completely worthless!

:leek:

 

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

not too long nice quick read I enjoyed it.

 

[Baro]

I stopped playing theory fighter years ago

 

[AlMoStLeGeNdArY]

I stopped playing theory fighter years ago

LoL I love people like you on the internet. The ones are are super cool can do everything and has done everything before anyone else. You guys crack me up. I think your epen*s got bigger.

 

[Spelt]

this thread can be summed up by reading any couple pages on any tier list thread.

 

[A2ZOMG]

The only real problem with theorycraft these days is that most people don't cite video evidence or suck at it. And partly because we don't necessarily have access to high quality videos of every matchup out there.

By citing what was done well or poorly on both sides of a video, that's the best way to explain how a matchup works.

 

[SuSa]

The only real problem with theorycraft these days is that most people don't cite video evidence or suck at it. And partly because we don't necessarily have access to high quality videos of every matchup out there.

By citing what was done well or poorly on both sides of a video, that's the best way to explain how a matchup works.

You obviously didn't read the article. Theorycraft doesn't need videos to point to. That's arguments and debates, not theorycraft.

People don't suck at it, so much as they are ignorant of their opponents options. They could be very good at theorycrafting, but just ignorant of taking into the account both sides.

That shows how the matchup is played. That can be used as data. That can show matchups. That isn't theorycraft.

I don't want to bring up year-old examples... lol

:leek:

 

[A2ZOMG]

No, I did read the article. But my point is that points are better emphasized by explaining when things work or showing examples in videos and how people could have made different decisions that could have changed the outcome. This part of theorycrafting, emphasizing better decisions, is heavily underused in most matchup discussions, since the point of theorycrafting is to improve the quality of players.

 

[SuSa]

I'll leave that as a difference of our beliefs for theorycraft and it's purposes. I won't go into an ad hominem here.

I believe theorycraft is meant to show the options of a match, given scenarios and outcomes. Not to improve the quality of the players (although this is a side-effect I guess)

:leek:

 

[A2ZOMG]

Case in point:

For the longest time, I've been trying to get G&W players to implement frame perfect ledgehop F-airs for instance, which I know in theory and in practical matches is very useful as a ledge option and isn't actually unreasonably hard to do. Most of them complained that they needed to see a video to understand how it works. My theories as to why perfect ledgehop F-air was useful were that perfect ledgehop F-airs are lagless and set up easy Second Jump Renewals (easy as in can be done consistently with training).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qIphhtzD0g <- for those who happen to be curious anyway. Example of video emphasizing points, and demonstrating good practical use in an actual match.

 

[Budget Player Cadet_]

Why did I find this funny...

 

[SuSa]

Case in point:

For the longest time, I've been trying to get G&W players to implement frame perfect ledgehop F-airs for instance, which I know in theory and in practical matches is very useful as a ledge option and isn't actually unreasonably hard to do. Most of them complained that they needed to see a video to understand how it works. My theories as to why perfect ledgehop F-air was useful were that perfect ledgehop F-airs are lagless and set up easy Second Jump Renewals (easy as in can be done consistently with training).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qIphhtzD0g <- for those who happen to be curious anyway. Example of video emphasizing points, and demonstrating good practical use in an actual match.

Under my definition, that isn't theorycraft.

That's a possible ledge option which is underrated or simply not known about. Which can be applied in theorycraft, but isn't itself theorycraft.

:leek:

 

[.AC.]

theorycrafting is useless and a waste of time, human error is the biggest factor in the game and you can't use theory to explain it

 

[SuSa]

theorycrafting is useless and a waste of time, human error is the biggest factor in the game and you can't use theory to explain it

And you didn't read where I mention human error and how it effects theorycrafting.

Good day sir.

:leek:

 

[A2ZOMG]

theorycrafting is useless and a waste of time, human error is the biggest factor in the game and you can't use theory to explain it

No, you can actually factor human error very easily, since all competitive players are subject to consistent limitations. This is what we usually refer to in subjects of reaction time and mixup potential. Both of which are quantifiable.

Take Marth grab releasing Lucario. Even though he's not actually at a frame advantage, he is far more likely to score reward from this situation. Between 4 frame Dancing Blade and a superior ranged 6 frame standing grab (Lucario can't grab back Marth from ground release while Marth can definitely regrab Lucario), Lucario is at a huge disadvantage where he has to guess, and his mistakes are punished, while Marth usually remains safe.

 

[.AC.]

except dancing blade is shield grababble and grab attempts are punishable or at least easily avoidable.

theory has no application whatsoever, at least in this game.

 

[SuSa]

Uhm.... explain AC?

I really am refusing to bring up year-old examples. I've won games entirely based upon my own theorycraft. Theorycrafting has proven to work for me.

So calling it useless is a personal attack as to how I play this piece of **** game.

 

[.AC.]

you won by being a better player, not by being a better theorycrafter

 

[HeroMystic]

you won by being a better player

Which can be supported by correct use of theory-crafting.

Believe it or not, people can get better by not playing the game.

 

[SuSa]

you won by being a better player, not by being a better theorycrafter

Which can be supported by correct use of theory-crafting.

Believe it or not, people can get better by not playing the game.

This. I don't even play this game outside of tournaments and the "night before smashfests in preperation for tomorrows tournament".

I'd rather spend my time theorycrafting the game and looking at what I did wrong in tournament and how I could improve upon it next time; than actually playing the game.

I also theorycraft mid-tournaments for a matchup if I think it's coming up. Once had to fight a Pit main, so I spent the time theorycrafting how to play against Pit.

:leek:

 

[DeLux]

Theoretical theorycraft (how weird does that sound when you say it?) is theorycraft which has been proven to be as such. Just theorycraft. It's only theoretically possible but not humanly possible.

I disagree with your definition for the "Theoretical theory crafting". As such, I largely disagree with how you divided the categories, or the method in which you developed criteria to divide the categories.

It's probably me just being nitpicking, but I think the distinction of "not humanly possible" in your definition is arbitrary. It would be far superior to make a definition that doesn't comment on the human element when it comes to theory.

I'm not saying what you said is "wrong" per say, I'm more suggesting that it isn't always right. Your definition is lends itself to the answer that the theoretical level of examination is functionally wrong because of the human elements involved. That isn't ALWAYS necessarily the case. I'm sure that wasn't what you intended your definition to say, but nonetheless, if read as is, that is what can reasonably be inferred. In reality, it must first be theoretically possible, and THEN practically possible.

A larger distinction and more adequate examination of theory crafting would be to take a basic philosophical route, similar to the how the thread is divided.

Data (i.e. frame advantage, internal game mechanics, etc) would be similar to the metaphysical nature of the game. These are facts that people have to operate from. Examples being "Ice Climbers standing grab comes out on frame 6" or "Out of a dash cancel shield drop, the Ice Climbers have the longest standing slide of game" (shameless plug for my thread in the IC forum, sorry).

Practical (i.e. tactics built upon the framework of available data) would be an empirical examination of the game. This is where theorycraft relies on certain data (I have specifically in mind exchanges of frame advantage), where the players theorize "based on this data, we ought to attempt to create as many situations involving this specific exchange because it is in our character's advantage in the match up". Really, this is closer to your definition of the realistic. However, the lines between the two are not very clear, so attempting to divide the two into separate categories would be arbitrary in my opinion. This level would take into account a little of the human elements as it is empirically based, but would be more conservative in stating how best to approach a match up. To be clear, if a message is based entirely on experience, it's ceases being theorycraft and is more in the realm of "advice".


Advice would be the most flexible because it's almost entirely drawn from experience. It goes along the lines of "Based on my experience, we should do this tactic, because this is what gets me the win." This is the level the accounts for a majority of the human element of the game and often times might override what data dictates to be true. In my opinion, this level is slightly weaker than the previous two because it's less than ideal.


Both Advice and Theorycraft in general are susceptible to being inherently flawed. In essence, it is all operating on an epistemological level that is subject to the biases and deliberation of people. In order to discuss things, we take data. Then we have to interpret the data on a practical level. Then we have to communicate the data over the forum. Then we have to decipher the communication from the forum. The we have to take what we deciphered and apply it to the match up. It is the steps between the interpretation and application that has the human element of error. This is why the metagame is always in a constant state of change; it operates on a tier that less than what is metaphysically true but epistemlogically true. It isn't the fault of the theorycraft itself or the theorycrafter nor the advice or the advisor.

Some people theorycraft. Some people give advice. I feel there is a clear distinction between the two based on the logic I presented. I feel like using the categories is a better categorizing of how matchups are interpreted.


Edit: Some typos and a more sound explanation on the epistemology of everything in the second to last paragraph.

 

[SuSa]

Nitpicking way to far into it man.... waaay to far. Theoretical theory is in theory, 100% correct. But adding in human factors, it's simply wrong. It's EXTREME theorycraft.

More examples:
No tether opponent should EVER recover EVER because tether recoveries are bad and easily edgehogged.
Snake can win matchups with only grenade camping and ftilt spacing.
DDD's infinite is an instant win against DK.


Also I left the lines blurry. You can't fine-cut theorycraft, but people do agree that some theorycraft is "overboard" while other is "more believable"

See:
The general SWF's public view of A2ZOMG's theorycrafting. (Overboard) vs the general SWF's public of my theorycrafting (believable).

I can go find specific posts from the Ness/PT/few other places for quotes and such if you want me to.
[sorry for the name plug A2, but it's true]

 

[DeLux]

I wouldn't consider any of the examples you mentioned as only theoretical, or even theorycraft at all. It isn't supported by data that transcends human bias.

You used words that are subjective like "bad" and "easily" in your first example.
The second one isn't specific. Anyone can win any match up with anything. In theory, you could jab any character to death. This is different than the data that I refer to when being specific. "this one move or one piece of data requires these factors" sort of deal. It doesn't take into account the other characters data either as a counter into the equation either. You can't theorycraft unless you know both sides, as you yourself stated.
The third example takes a situational trade that exists for one stock at a time, and attempt to extrapolate it over three stocks. By the same logic, then the Ice Climbers chain grab is also instant win. In theory, after getting grabbed it should be the loss of a stock, not the game.

 

[SuSa]

Tethers are not as good of recoveries as non-tether recoveries due to the extremely limited way in which they recover. Thus they are "bad". Since they only work within a certain range and have some startup time, you can wait on the edge and "easily" edgehog them compared to other recoveries.

As for your 2nd statement, you're taking the word theory far to literal as "theory" and not "theorycraft". No person on this entire forum would argue for a moment that you could jab your opponent to death. It's stupidity at it's best to even suggest that.

As for your comment on my third example - exactly; but I was just listing a ****ing example not a whole textbook.

You're looking

Spoiler

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to much into this and trying to overcomplicate something that simply DOES NOT need to be overcomplicated.

:leek:

 

[DeLux]

Clarity does not overcomplicate things in any regard, rather it simplifies.. The use of arbitrary criteria and leaving lines blurry as you intend to do leaves areas of discretion that creates complications, which is why I disagree with your definitions. I'm just attempting to have constructive debate, which you invited in your OP.

Going in order:
1. Your statement would be true if and only if tether recoveries were impossible. Obviously they aren't. There is no data to support that they are impossible. Just because one form of recover is easier than the other doesn't make the other form impossible. That is bad logic.

2. I was demonstrating, and which you apparently agree, with an analogy on why your example is unsound. And you didn't address the main point as to you need to be able to argue both sides in order to adequately theorycraft a matchup.

 

[SuSa]

"Theorycraft is meant to be taken with a grain of salt."
"Grain of salt"
"Viewer Discretion"
"How you see things"

I'm done arguing, it's perfectly fine as is. It's meant to have gray areas because this isn't a ****ing science, and I'm not writing a book on it. If you would like to post your own book on said subject, feel free to make a thread.

:leek:

 

[DeLux]

Just to be clear, my definitions did factor in viewer discretion and gray areas as well as advice. They are more precise. And you have yet to bring up an example on where they fail. You are done arguing, but you haven't really rebutted anything, so it isn't perfectly fine as is.

I would see it as a disservice to let your definitions stand without contest when they have flaws that are exploitable.

 

[SuSa]

Read the first giant sentence of my post. Feel free to disagree, these are MY OPINIONS.

Meaning:
I don't want to edit my OP. Period. Feel free to disagree, but I don't give a ****.

In other words, I'll quote my last edit in my above post:
I'm not writing a book on it. If you would like to post your own book on said subject, feel free to make a thread.

:leek:

 

[JOE!]

Lux, stop arguing semantics in a thread about how to use theoretical knowledge to your advantage correctly

 

[rPSIvysaur]

Cool theory bro.

 

[Fried Ice Cream]

Well, ignore this I suppose <_<.

 

[rPSIvysaur]

It's an example of bad theorycrafting.....

 

[HeroMystic]

Well Lux is right but it really is nitpicking to the extreme.

 

[-Cross-]

you won by being a better player, not by being a better theorycrafter

This. I don't even play this game outside of tournaments and the "night before smashfests in preperation for tomorrows tournament".

I'd rather spend my time theorycrafting the game and looking at what I did wrong in tournament and how I could improve upon it next time; than actually playing the game.

I also theorycraft mid-tournaments for a matchup if I think it's coming up. Once had to fight a Pit main, so I spent the time theorycrafting how to play against Pit.

:leek:

To each his own. It's true that theorycrafting has its uses, but some people just do not see the point. There are multiple ways to reach the same conclusion, empirical and theoretical both work, it just depends on how you respond to the new knowledge.

However, I do take empirical (just like theoretical) arguments with a grain of salt, because sometimes the player's skill is his limitation in making effective analysis of what he experienced for himself. By using both theoretical and empirical analysis, you can compare and contrast and have a solid backdrop for either one of these analytical methods. I, too, believe there is practical theorycrafting, but it's a bit different from your definition

 

[Raziek]

The whole point of theorycrafting is to CONSIDER YOUR OPTIONS, people.

God, it's not that hard.

I'm disappointed in you though Susa.

You said buckle in for a long read, and ended when I thought you were at about 15%! There was no **** meat to that!

What you said is true though.

 

[Luxor]

Theorycrafting has such a negative stigma attached to it. It's such a shame.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

See:
The general SWF's public view of A2ZOMG's theorycrafting. (Overboard) vs the general SWF's public of my theorycrafting (believable).

I can go find specific posts from the Ness/PT/few other places for quotes and such if you want me to.
[sorry for the name plug A2, but it's true]

Biggest reason I listen to what you say is because I can reasonably see what your saying to have merit to it.

To be honest I don't like theorycrafting a whole lot since some people take it way to far making some pretty hard to beleive and implement ideas, but it does have merit and works why not.

 

[Ussi]

This is where most people fail in their theorycraft. They are ignorant of the other sides options and do not take them into account when they theorycraft. This makes their theorycraft completely worthless!

:leek:

QFT

:leek:

 

[Meru.]

The whole point of theorycrafting is to CONSIDER YOUR OPTIONS, people.

God, it's not that hard.

I'm disappointed in you though Susa.

You said buckle in for a long read, and ended when I thought you were at about 15%! There was no **** meat to that!

What you said is true though.

I prefer short but effective over tl;dr (had to take a nap).

And I agree with SuSa. Finding an equilibrium is important in theorycraft imo.

 

[TeeVee]

I stopped playing theory fighter years ago

this .