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Ignorance, Sensationalism, and Global Warming

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LordoftheMorning

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Sensationalism is subject matter, language, or style producing or designed to produce startling or thrilling impressions or to excite and please vulgar taste. In politics, it creates arguments that use fear to motivate.

Unfinished speech for debate IRL:

It is often said that “ignorance is bliss”, although both logically and morally, this could not be farther from the truth. Being unaware of your circumstances leaves you and others you know open for exploitation at the hands of those who would profit at your expense. There is no reason to be ignorant outside of laziness, and allowing humans to be harmed because of your own laziness can be considered immoral. It is widely believed that moral acts are done in order to satisfy the conscience, and therefore assuage the discomfort of guilt. Or that an immoral person is fated to suffer.

So an immoral person cannot be truly satisfied. And if to be immoral is to be unhappy, then ignorance is one of the things that will ultimately lead you to tragedy, except that the nature of ignorance will cause you not to know what it is that makes you unhappy. So an ignorant person will live their life in dissatisfaction, unaware that it is his own ignorance that is ruining his life. And thus, “ignorance is bliss” should be changed to “ignorance is immoral”, and therefore “ignorance is hell”. And using this syllogism, I declare that we have both the incentive and the moral obligation to seek out knowledge and keep our minds open.

On that note, I would bring to everyone’s attention that ignorance is widely exploited in the modern day. The most common form of exploitation is successful by spreading fear. Fear, which is both a commercial for business and a voting issue for politicians, is a powerful motivator in most respects. Even in the National Forensics League (this is a debate league), fear has become a powerful ally. All too often debaters will tell their judges that the opponent’s position leads to nuclear war, genocide, death of biodiversity, or otherwise complete destruction of the biosphere. More even-headed arguments exist and are viable, but the doomsday arguments always seem to get the job done. Fear is a natural emotion, of course, but the power it has to govern a person’s decisions is all too exploitable. Some will strive to create fear for monetary gain or influence. I’d like to invoke some of the “doomsdays” of the past. Notice how preposterously unfulfilled they all are.

In 1971, Reid Bryson, a respected geologist and meteorologist from the University of Chicago, claimed that “The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population.” Later in 1976, a book written by Lowell Ponte called “The Cooling” claimed that “This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000.” I never observed such a cooling. Apparently this was forgotten when it never came true.

Even before that, in 1968, Paul Erhlich, a German scientist and winner of the Nobel Prize in medicine in 1908, said “The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. Population control is the only answer.” And yet almost forty years later, China is one of the only countries using population control. But we’re still here aren’t we?

In 1999, the Y2K scare, which I’m sure you’re all familiar with, is another great example of this. Simply because the first two digits of the year were not shown on computer calendars, we were told that there is a possibility that computers would malfunction, resulting in irrevocable damage to the economy and administration of computerized nations. This certainly never happened, but Y2K banking consultants made billions off consulting and the panicked frenzy to invest somewhere safe.
You can be sure that each one of these calamities had their own “scientific backing”. This is an obvious demonstration of how easy it is to misquote science, and how inaccurate models can be.

And today? Global Warming, people. In December 1997, a conference was held considering a treaty to reduce the emission of ‘greenhouse gases’, especially carbon dioxide, worldwide. It was feared that these greenhouse gases would unnaturally raise the temperature of the global climate. The temperature would continue to climb at an abnormally high rate, resulting in more arid climate zones, the melting of the polar ice caps, and potential flooding as a result of raised sea levels, among other catastrophes such as hurricanes and causing the extinction of many species that would not be able to withstand the change. The theory of man-made global warming was first hypothesized in the late 1970’s, although it was little more than a theory of little interest or support.

The media is always keen to embrace these doomsday theories. Why? Because it sells papers. And once the people’s attention is acquired, fear is generated. The media becomes a sort of self-licking ice cream cone. It creates fear; the fear creates money, which the media uses to create more fear. This is an oversimplification of course. The real-world thing isn’t so insidious, but it happens nonetheless.

Because the people are scared, they will start demanding government action. Suddenly politicians have new ways to win votes. They can use this new fear of Global Warming to push their agendas. This happened in 1979, when Margaret Thatcher became prime minister of the UK. She was an advocate of nuclear power, and she used the mad-made Global Warming theory in her campaign to promote the use of nuclear energy, which does not produce greenhouse gases.

Then, once those politicians are elected, scientific grants are awarded to scientists that can perform studies to prove the theory correct. This will earn the politician more support. But because more and more grants are going to meteorologists that will prove this theory, scientists working on other projects get less and less attention. Scientists attempting to disprove the theory won’t get any funding either. This is a debasement of the scientific method. When the conclusion is made before the data is gathered, you get biased "political" science. The result? Junk science.

Feel free to take the points a few at a time. I don't want to reply to something as long as this all at once, and I'm sure you don't either.

Here's some extra stuff.

Here's a petition that says this debate isn't over:
http://www.oism.org/pproject/
And here's some good info. Read the paper.
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm
Good site in general http://www.junkscience.com/
Very good long documentary, even though it's been mud-slinged in the past.http://www.channel4.com/science/microsites/G/great_global_warming_swindle/
 

Overload

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Oh man global warming is a fun topic to talk about. Personally, I don't believe in it anymore. It seems that what is happening now(if it is happening) is a natural climate change that has repeated itself numerous times throughout the lifespan of the earth.
 

LordoftheMorning

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-Big Sigh- I thought I was the only one. I live in a bloody desert, so everyone thinks I'm crazy over here. It's kinda scary how fast GW permeated high school and middle schools.
 

Jam Stunna

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While I don't think that pouring tons of CO2 into the atmosphere is a good idea, reports of Al Gore's financial stake in "going green" have certainly made me re-think if he has only the world's best interests at heart.

At least with Republicans, their evil profiteering is blatant and obvious.
 

Dash_Fox

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Fear sells. Answers to these fears sell as well. I thought this was common knowledge.

That's not real science! Science is not biased and coming to a conclusion before the evidence is there could be called a hypothesis or just plain B.S. Science isn't about debunking or helping a political party. Science is about finding the truth of the world around us and nothing more or less.
 

Lord Viper

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Oh man global warming is a fun topic to talk about. Personally, I don't believe in it anymore. It seems that what is happening now(if it is happening) is a natural climate change that has repeated itself numerous times throughout the lifespan of the earth.
Well, polution died down a little over the years, global warming is still happaning, just not as it use to be a few decades ago. So far, look at the South Pole, a lot of ice has been melted, but not enough to cause a world crisis, so little was done, (or little can be done), to protect the rest of the polor ice caps from melting.
 

Darxmarth23

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Global warming is inevitable to me.

I would say that no matter how much i try to get ppl to stop pollution it never gets to them. Being a "big Picture" person i would say that ppl will not nor will they ever change their way.



We will do what we do best.

Stall and let the next generation suffer.
 

Overload

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Penn and Teller did an episode on Environmental Hysteria and it talks about global warming. They also talk about politicians using fear.

Here is part 1 if anyone is interested: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3InQzsLltHE

I saw it a while back so I'm watching it again to refresh my memory. They make some good points.

It turns out that is a different one than what I watched in the past. The other one, which I am going to look for now, talks more about Gore and some other things.

Here is the other one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAu68OsFggw

They say Al Gore uses 20x more electricity than the average person and purchases carbon credits from his own company.
 

SkylerOcon

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Sure, we should definately try to find alternate forms of energy, because we're running out of fossil fuels fast, but the Earth has been known to have weird temeratures. About 50 or so years ago, we had a scare about Global Cooling. That didn't happen, now did it.

People who are all scared of Global Warming are hilarious once you point out that it was about 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer 5000 years ago, and about 1 degree Celsius warmer about 1000 years ago. This is not being caused by greenhouse gases.

Of course, we definitely need to find alternate forms of energy. When this time period is looked back upon by scientists in the future, they will say that we lived in the 'Oil age'. Cars are an obvious example, but many medicines are also made using Oil. We need to find alternate ways to make things like this, and fast.

http://www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/iceage.htm

This link has a lot of good info about how stupid the idea of global warming towards the beginning, and then it goes off talking about a possible second Ice Age.
 

LordoftheMorning

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Wow, you guys actually are agreeing with this. I'm very pleasantly surprised.:) I was under the impression that everyone believed in mad-made global warning and was an activist about it. I thought I'd be made to feel like some sort of psychopath for posting this. This makes my day.:bee: By the way, this speech is only about half way done. I'll be writing more of it later on. It's semester exams time now, though so It'll be later.

One thing that kind of bugs me is the notion that CO2 is a pollutant. We breathe out CO2! Animals and humans actually put out for more megatons of CO2 per year than factories do, according to the documentary I cited.

EDIT: I've heard a theory. I'm not saying I buy into this but here it is.

Previous predictions said that we'd be out of oil by 1970, 1990, 2000, and now 20somethingorother. Since we've never run out when we predicted, and oil wells keep being found, some geologists have theorized that oil is produced somehow by geological phenomenon, and is constantly produced. Interesting, eh?
 

SkylerOcon

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CO2 is a pollutant. We breathe it, but it still pollutes the atmosphere.

That theory that you've heard of is interesting. Do you have a link to an article? Though I think we will reach Peak Production sometime in the next 30 years (50% of the world's oil reserves are used up), I also think we will have found an alternate source of energy by then. But if there's enough evidence to back up the theory, I might believe that, and then we won't have to worry about Peak Production.
 

illinialex24

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Wow, I have seen so many ignorant posts here. Yes fear sells newspapers. Who cares? When global warming is accepted by almost every scientist and with sound science behind it, whats not to believe.

Global temperature change is affected by "greenhouse gases", two of the most notable being methane and CO2 (methane is 21 times as potent a greenhouse gas as CO2, which is why we burn it as natural gas which essentially allows us to get energy but also prevent a lot of global temperature change).

Natural temperature change involves these gases being released and absorbed naturally. The hothouse period of the earth, around 90-100 million years ago (characterized by the north pole being a fresh water lake and Antarctica being roughly in its current position but still having green life and very capable of supporting life) was because CO2 levels got to around 800 parts per million (PPM). Ice ages have been caused because CO2 levels have fallen to in between 100 and 200 PPM. This is because either there is a lot more vegetation which is absorbing the CO2, plants dying which releases CO2, or underground stores of CO2 (sequestrated CO2) being released.

Like when a volcano goes off, CO2 is released. When volcanic activity was higher, a lot more CO2 was released. Oil and other hydrocarbons are sequestrated forms of greenhouse gases simply put, and it stores them under the ground in a form that stores it. This is because plant matter from a previous age, which when the plants normally died would have released a lot of CO2, was stored in the earth in a pretty much unusable form, even if it stored a lot of energy. So when new plant life came up, there was unnaturally low levels of CO2. This is what we have been experiencing until we started burning that oil. Now, the sequestrated carbon is getting released into the atmosphere. If CO2 levels go too high, global temperatures will increase by more than the .8 degrees C they already have. Because of the oceans vastly high specific heat (the amount of heat it takes to raise the temperature of a substance 1 degree C, in which water has one of the highest natural specific heats), it takes 30 years before the true effects of the temperature change are realized.

However, CO2 in the atmosphere not only raises global temperatures, it also acidifies the oceans. You know how Seltzer water has a different taste than regular water even when its flat? This is because when CO2 reacts with water, around 1/100 molecules react with it to form carbonic acid. Now that may not seem like a lot but small amounts of acid can cause major pH changes and this has major effects. This should cause a noticeable acidification of the oceans.

Now, life is based off a dynamic equilibrium, which is called homeostasis (essentially a range of values that are controlled by negative feedback loops [a loop that tries to prevent extremes]). If there is too much of a stress on a pH equilibrium in the body, the animals in the ocean will not be able to deal with the great pH change and so their internal pH will change (pH in the body is controlled by buffers and the release of acids or bases in certain areas to help neutralize this, but it can deal with major pH issues). This will cause their proteins to denature (lose their shape so they don't work because of weak bonds called hydrogen bonds in the molecule getting destroyed) and so the animal will die. This over mass numbers will cause a major loss in diversification, and likely a mass extinction.

Now our current rapid release of CO2 is too fast for the random selection of genes that cause an advantage (natural selection) for most animals, and so we will likely have a mass extinction if this continues. This with the temperature increases should likely kill off major biological hotspots (where there is a lot of diversity) like the reefs. The pH change and temperature will bleach coral reefs and then the diversity of the species around it.

This is all because we are screwing around with sequestrated carbon.
 

BFDD

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You say that the release of CO2 as well as other greenhouse gases causes the earth to heat up and I am not going to try to argue against that because it is very well understood and makes plenty of sense. So I agree completely with that part. You also state that the rise of global temperature is due to humans. This is not proven. I disagree with that part.

You have very nicely explained how greenhouse gases work and what will happen if there is to much. What you haven't explained is how much affect humans have on the CO2 levels. This is what happened last time we had a thread about global warming, people explained over and over again that greenhouse gases heat the earth. But never showed any indication that human gas emissions are high enough to have an affect on the earth.

Here is what you appear to be claiming:

1. Greenhouse gases cause a rise in global temperature
2. Humans activities release greenhouse gases into the air
Conclusion
Humans cause global warming

This may seem like a legitimate claim, but let me show another example following similar logic

1. If a person is cut they bleed
2. If a person loses enough blood they die
Conclusion
If a person gets cut they die

Obviously this is incorrect. The blood lose is dependent on where and how deep the cut goes.


We all know how greenhouse gases work and are in no way trying to argue against that. What I am suggesting, as well as others who do not believe that humans are responsible for global warming, is that humans are only causing a "paper cut" on the earth.
 

Darxmarth23

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This is all because we are screwing around with sequestrated carbon.
I second his entire essay.

We do these things for what we want now. We never look ahead at tomorrow b/c we want to save ourselves from something stupid we did yesterday probably b/c of personal greed.

Shows our true colors doesn't it?
 

marthanoob

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One thing that kind of bugs me is the notion that CO2 is a pollutant. We breathe out CO2! Animals and humans actually put out for more megatons of CO2 per year than factories do, according to the documentary I cited.
Earth is at an equilibrium. When a stress is applied to this equilibrium (such as increased levels of CO2), there will be adverse effects as the system attempts to reestablish an equilibrium.
It is called a pollutant for practical purposes.

Previous predictions said that we'd be out of oil by 1970, 1990, 2000, and now 20somethingorother. Since we've never run out when we predicted, and oil wells keep being found, some geologists have theorized that oil is produced somehow by geological phenomenon, and is constantly produced. Interesting, eh?
I highly doubt that it is produced at a higher or equal rate as it is being depleted.

What I am suggesting, as well as others who do not believe that humans are responsible for global warming, is that humans are only causing a "paper cut" on the earth.
Agreed.

But even if we do have a only a small impact on CO2 levels, we still have to find and put into greater use alternate, renewable forms of energy.
 

Overload

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Whether or not we are causing global warming, I'm still all for recycling as often as possible, saving energy/water, and finding alternate energy sources.
Saving energy and water = saving money
eventual depletion of oil = need to find alternate energy sources
recycle = landfills are filling up, and I don't believe in wasting something
 

illinialex24

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You say that the release of CO2 as well as other greenhouse gases causes the earth to heat up and I am not going to try to argue against that because it is very well understood and makes plenty of sense. So I agree completely with that part. You also state that the rise of global temperature is due to humans. This is not proven. I disagree with that part.

You have very nicely explained how greenhouse gases work and what will happen if there is to much. What you haven't explained is how much affect humans have on the CO2 levels. This is what happened last time we had a thread about global warming, people explained over and over again that greenhouse gases heat the earth. But never showed any indication that human gas emissions are high enough to have an affect on the earth.

Here is what you appear to be claiming:

1. Greenhouse gases cause a rise in global temperature
2. Humans activities release greenhouse gases into the air
Conclusion
Humans cause global warming

This may seem like a legitimate claim, but let me show another example following similar logic

1. If a person is cut they bleed
2. If a person loses enough blood they die
Conclusion
If a person gets cut they die

Obviously this is incorrect. The blood lose is dependent on where and how deep the cut goes.


We all know how greenhouse gases work and are in no way trying to argue against that. What I am suggesting, as well as others who do not believe that humans are responsible for global warming, is that humans are only causing a "paper cut" on the earth.
Ok, hows this for an answer. We are releasing CO2 into the environment. That is a fact. Just like how our ancestors stopped an ice age by cutting down most of the trees in Europe and releasing huge amounts of carbon. When we release sequestrated carbon, we are releasing more than can be used. So we are the tipping point. We may not be the sole cause, but we are a major cause of the increase in CO2 emissions.

I second his entire essay.

We do these things for what we want now. We never look ahead at tomorrow b/c we want to save ourselves from something stupid we did yesterday probably b/c of personal greed.

Shows our true colors doesn't it?
More so the fact that animals evolve to exploit resources well, because if you exploit them, it helps your species survive. Because of this, it is very hard for us to conserve anything even if we have the foresight to realize what our exploitation is doing. Take a look at the environment in general. We are overfishing and causing fish stocks to collapse. We are destroying natural habitats and have caused some major extinctions because animals don't have the same habitat they used to.

But even if we do have a only a small impact on CO2 levels, we still have to find and put into greater use alternate, renewable forms of energy.
But that small influence is the key difference. See, most CO2 emissions are coming from animals that ate plant matter which absorbed the carbon. Guess where they made the carbon matter from? CO2. In a very recent time too. However, now we are using carbon stored under the earth for 100 million years, and so we are releasing carbon that never should be released. This is the key difference, the reason why it is changing the environment.

Whether or not we are causing global warming, I'm still all for recycling as often as possible, saving energy/water, and finding alternate energy sources.
Saving energy and water = saving money
eventual depletion of oil = need to find alternate energy sources
recycle = landfills are filling up, and I don't believe in wasting something
That is a good approach but we are.
 

BFDD

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Ok, hows this for an answer. We are releasing CO2 into the environment. That is a fact.
Agreed, no arguments there.

When we release sequestrated carbon, we are releasing more than can be used.
Sounds plausible

We may not be the sole cause, but we are a major cause of the increase in CO2 emissions.
But are we producing enough to cause a significant change in temperature?


There isn't much new information in this post. To go back to my previous example about getting a cut. You keep explaining how people get cut and then immediately conclude that they bleed to death.

I understand the mechanism behind the release of CO2 and I under stand that greenhouse gases heat the earth. Yes, humans do release a large amount of CO2. You still haven't shown that it is enough to matter. If I eat a pellet of rat poison, I'm not going to die. If I eat a box of rat poison I am going to die.
 

illinialex24

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But are we producing enough to cause a significant change in temperature?


There isn't much new information in this post. To go back to my previous example about getting a cut. You keep explaining how people get cut and then immediately conclude that they bleed to death.

I understand the mechanism behind the release of CO2 and I under stand that greenhouse gases heat the earth. Yes, humans do release a large amount of CO2. You still haven't shown that it is enough to matter. If I eat a pellet of rat poison, I'm not going to die. If I eat a box of rat poison I am going to die.
Yes we are because we are using up enough sequestrated carbon that global temperatures have already gone up .8 degrees C.
 

BFDD

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Yes we are because we are using up enough sequestrated carbon that global temperatures have already gone up .8 degrees C.
Can you actually prove that it was due to human emissions? The temperature of the Earth changed quite a bit throughout its history even before humans. Cores taken from glaciers show that the earth has a pattern of heating and cooling. Again I understand that humans release CO2 and the earth is heating up. It does not mean that humans are causing the increase.
 

illinialex24

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Can you actually prove that it was due to human emissions? The temperature of the Earth changed quite a bit throughout its history even before humans. Cores taken from glaciers show that the earth has a pattern of heating and cooling. Again I understand that humans release CO2 and the earth is heating up. It does not mean that humans are causing the increase.
No you cannot completely prove that it was due to humans, but since CO2 levels have been rising ever since the industrial revolution, when oil started to be used, so its likely but not proven.
 

cman

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Wow, you guys actually are agreeing with this. I'm very pleasantly surprised.:) I was under the impression that everyone believed in mad-made global warning and was an activist about it. I thought I'd be made to feel like some sort of psychopath for posting this. This makes my day.:bee: By the way, this speech is only about half way done. I'll be writing more of it later on. It's semester exams time now, though so It'll be later.
Why wouldn't we agree? Everyone knows that the media/politicians try to exploit everything to get elected/sell papers. However, that doesn't mean that I don't think that human activities have a profound effect on the environment and we are living an unsupportable lifestyle as a population.




I have a question just out of curiosity for you all. How many of you believe that offshore drilling will help solve our oil problem?
 

BFDD

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No you cannot completely prove that it was due to humans, but since CO2 levels have been rising ever since the industrial revolution, when oil started to be used, so its likely but not proven.
A slight correlation does not mean that we are responsible. I just Googled graphs of global temperature change. A majority of them start at 1860 and show a gradual trend of the temperature rising. It really does look like that there is a correlation between the industrial revolution and the rise in temperature. But if you look at a temperature graph that starts before 1860 you can see that the temperature was actually starting to rise before the industrial revolution.

In fact you can see the pattern of rising and falling temperatures going on way before humans were around.
http://www.petitionproject.org/gwdatabase/Article_HTML/Review_Article_HTML.html

When you look at the big picture you can see that there is no correlation between humans and temperature change. I really find it strange that a majority of the graphs start at 1860. Why not show what was happening before that?
 

illinialex24

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A slight correlation does not mean that we are responsible. I just Googled graphs of global temperature change. A majority of them start at 1860 and show a gradual trend of the temperature rising. It really does look like that there is a correlation between the industrial revolution and the rise in temperature. But if you look at a temperature graph that starts before 1860 you can see that the temperature was actually starting to rise before the industrial revolution.

In fact you can see the pattern of rising and falling temperatures going on way before humans were around.
http://www.petitionproject.org/gwdatabase/Article_HTML/Review_Article_HTML.html

When you look at the big picture you can see that there is no correlation between humans and temperature change. I really find it strange that a majority of the graphs start at 1860. Why not show what was happening before that?
Right but there is also the fact that we are releasing sequestrated carbon so we are contributing to it. The change in the atmospheric carbon is affected by 2 things:

Amount of carbon stored in plant matter and animal matter
Sequestrated carbon

So if the amount of plant and animal matter goes down, more atmospheric carbon results.

If the amount of sequestrated carbon goes down, there is the same result.

Right now we are decreasing the amount of carbon stored by plant and animal matter by chopping down forests and removing many habitats and burning sequestrated carbon.

Humans altogether have had for a long time a major effect on global warming. We even stopped an ice age for that matter. That caused CO2 levels to stay steady instead of drop because we reduced plant matter by a lot in all of Europe.
 

illinialex24

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adumbrodeus

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In 1971, Reid Bryson, a respected geologist and meteorologist from the University of Chicago, claimed that “The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population.” Later in 1976, a book written by Lowell Ponte called “The Cooling” claimed that “This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000.” I never observed such a cooling. Apparently this was forgotten when it never came true.
...

Global dimming (the cooling that they're talking about) IS a current effect, and part of Global climate change.

The trend reversed in large part because of the reduction of the usage of aerosols, but it's a proven and still occurring force, and a partial negater of global warming.

Source, source.

Even before that, in 1968, Paul Erhlich, a German scientist and winner of the Nobel Prize in medicine in 1908, said “The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. Population control is the only answer.” And yet almost forty years later, China is one of the only countries using population control. But we’re still here aren’t we?
Because people started practicing self-control. Population increase rates have dropped dramatically in developed countries.

Countries that haven't... well third-world countries have more then enough people starving to death to show the truth of this forecast.

Source

In 1999, the Y2K scare, which I’m sure you’re all familiar with, is another great example of this. Simply because the first two digits of the year were not shown on computer calendars, we were told that there is a possibility that computers would malfunction, resulting in irrevocable damage to the economy and administration of computerized nations. This certainly never happened, but Y2K banking consultants made billions off consulting and the panicked frenzy to invest somewhere safe.
You can be sure that each one of these calamities had their own “scientific backing”. This is an obvious demonstration of how easy it is to misquote science, and how inaccurate models can be.
Look, the only reason that you think this was a bad idea is because you're not in the field.

Whether or not it's a long-shot, the impact of such a far-reaching bug is potentially devastating, so we fix it ASAP.

Why? Because, when an entire infrastructure depends on a system that could collapse, sure there may only be like a 1% chance of it happening, but for the hundreds of trillions of dollars that depend on that infrastructure, a few billion is an absolute steal to protect it.

With that much at stake, it's worth protecting against the 1% chance.


And today? Global Warming, people. In December 1997, a conference was held considering a treaty to reduce the emission of ‘greenhouse gases’, especially carbon dioxide, worldwide. It was feared that these greenhouse gases would unnaturally raise the temperature of the global climate. The temperature would continue to climb at an abnormally high rate, resulting in more arid climate zones, the melting of the polar ice caps, and potential flooding as a result of raised sea levels, among other catastrophes such as hurricanes and causing the extinction of many species that would not be able to withstand the change. The theory of man-made global warming was first hypothesized in the late 1970’s, although it was little more than a theory of little interest or support.

The media is always keen to embrace these doomsday theories. Why? Because it sells papers. And once the people’s attention is acquired, fear is generated. The media becomes a sort of self-licking ice cream cone. It creates fear; the fear creates money, which the media uses to create more fear. This is an oversimplification of course. The real-world thing isn’t so insidious, but it happens nonetheless.

Because the people are scared, they will start demanding government action. Suddenly politicians have new ways to win votes. They can use this new fear of Global Warming to push their agendas. This happened in 1979, when Margaret Thatcher became prime minister of the UK. She was an advocate of nuclear power, and she used the mad-made Global Warming theory in her campaign to promote the use of nuclear energy, which does not produce greenhouse gases.

Then, once those politicians are elected, scientific grants are awarded to scientists that can perform studies to prove the theory correct. This will earn the politician more support. But because more and more grants are going to meteorologists that will prove this theory, scientists working on other projects get less and less attention. Scientists attempting to disprove the theory won’t get any funding either. This is a debasement of the scientific method. When the conclusion is made before the data is gathered, you get biased "political" science. The result? Junk science.

Feel free to take the points a few at a time. I don't want to reply to something as long as this all at once, and I'm sure you don't either.

Here's some extra stuff.

Here's a petition that says this debate isn't over:
http://www.oism.org/pproject/
And here's some good info. Read the paper.
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm
Good site in general http://www.junkscience.com/
Very good long documentary, even though it's been mud-slinged in the past.http://www.channel4.com/science/microsites/G/great_global_warming_swindle/
So... you post a group of crises that you believe you overblown (when in reality, you were wrong about EVERY SINGLE ONE), and then use it to discredit Global Warming, without any actual evidence about Global Warming?

Give me a break...


A slight correlation does not mean that we are responsible. I just Googled graphs of global temperature change. A majority of them start at 1860 and show a gradual trend of the temperature rising. It really does look like that there is a correlation between the industrial revolution and the rise in temperature. But if you look at a temperature graph that starts before 1860 you can see that the temperature was actually starting to rise before the industrial revolution.

In fact you can see the pattern of rising and falling temperatures going on way before humans were around.
http://www.petitionproject.org/gwdatabase/Article_HTML/Review_Article_HTML.html

When you look at the big picture you can see that there is no correlation between humans and temperature change. I really find it strange that a majority of the graphs start at 1860. Why not show what was happening before that?
But the problem is that correlation hasn't just been established, CAUSATION has.

Higher carbon-dioxide content in the atmosphere has been proven to increase the amount of heat within the atmosphere, because it allows the entrance of light, but does not allow heat to exit.

source

Don't forget methane is another major greenhouse gas.


From there it's a matter of "how much"?
 

BFDD

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From there it's a matter of "how much"?
Exactly what I have been saying. I am claiming the amount is insignificant.

I have said over and over again. CO2 raises the temperature of the earth. Humans release CO2 into the air. I fully understand that part. Let me repeat it again. I KNOW THAT CO2 RAISES THE TEMPERATURE. That part has been proven. There is absolutely no way anyone can claim that greenhouse gases don't raise the temperature. But that does not mean that humans are the cause.

The earths temperature has always fluctuated. Even long before humans existed. The temperature is still following that same pattern. The pattern before humans, deforestation and burning fossil fuels is the same as the pattern after humans, deforestation and burning fossil fuels.
 

illinialex24

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Exactly what I have been saying. I am claiming the amount is insignificant.

I have said over and over again. CO2 raises the temperature of the earth. Humans release CO2 into the air. I fully understand that part. Let me repeat it again. I KNOW THAT CO2 RAISES THE TEMPERATURE. That part has been proven. There is absolutely no way anyone can claim that greenhouse gases don't raise the temperature. But that does not mean that humans are the cause.

The earths temperature has always fluctuated. Even long before humans existed. The temperature is still following that same pattern. The pattern before humans, deforestation and burning fossil fuels is the same as the pattern after humans, deforestation and burning fossil fuels.
I am fairly sure there is science in labs showing how much heat is trapped if there is more CO2 in the atmosphere showing that the amounts we are releasing is significant. However, I do not have any sources on this.
 

adumbrodeus

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Exactly what I have been saying. I am claiming the amount is insignificant.

I have said over and over again. CO2 raises the temperature of the earth. Humans release CO2 into the air. I fully understand that part. Let me repeat it again. I KNOW THAT CO2 RAISES THE TEMPERATURE. That part has been proven. There is absolutely no way anyone can claim that greenhouse gases don't raise the temperature. But that does not mean that humans are the cause.

The earths temperature has always fluctuated. Even long before humans existed. The temperature is still following that same pattern. The pattern before humans, deforestation and burning fossil fuels is the same as the pattern after humans, deforestation and burning fossil fuels.
Logical inconsistency, you admit there is a change, yet you say the pattern is the same. I'll assume that you mean it's very similar, but please confirm.


And how much do you claim it adjusts the earth's temperature?
 

adumbrodeus

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I do believe he means that a pattern involves change.
Any pattern that is not a constant involves change, but the change is predictable.

If it's the same pattern that means no effect. If it's a similar pattern that means there are slight differences but the change is predictable.

For example, everything being 1 degree Celsius above previous patterns is a similar but predictable pattern.
 

BFDD

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You mean it is inconsistent to claim that CO2 raises the temperature but the overall pattern is the same?

I am claiming it would be the same as throwing an ice cube into the ocean. Throwing an ice cube into the ocean is going to cause the temperature to lower. But in the big picture it isn't going to have any affect at all.

I am fairly sure there is science in labs showing how much heat is trapped if there is more CO2 in the atmosphere showing that the amounts we are releasing is significant. However, I do not have any sources on this.
I have looked for this type of information before, but didn't have much success. Please post a link if you find any sources.

Posted while I was typing:
If it's the same pattern that means no effect. If it's a similar pattern that means there are slight differences but the change is predictable.
The pattern is predictable. It is similar enough to show that humans are not having any affect on global temperature. The peaks and valleys vary throughout, there is a graph in the link I posted earlier, or if you search Google hard enough you can find a few that show the whole record not just the temperature since 1860.

Unfortunately my original source was a lecture so I can't provide any links.
 

adumbrodeus

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You mean it is inconsistent to claim that CO2 raises the temperature but the overall pattern is the same?

I am claiming it would be the same as throwing an ice cube into the ocean. Throwing an ice cube into the ocean is going to cause the temperature to lower. But in the big picture it isn't going to have any affect at all.
It's an issue of language, the equivalent of throwing an ice cube in the ocean is still going to cause a difference, just an insignificant one.

Since this is a scientific discussion, and therefore a technical one, I must insist that you use the proper language, phrases like "negligible difference", "insignificant difference", and similar phrases indicate that, yes, there is a difference but it's too tiny to be worth discussing. Saying "no difference" when there is a recognizable, yet very small difference, isn't acceptable.



Back to the topic at hand, you have still failed to answer my question, how much do you claim it adjusts the earth's temperature?
 

LordoftheMorning

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Wow I see the debate picked up. TO ARMS! :mad::p

Wow, I have seen so many ignorant posts here. Yes fear sells newspapers. Who cares? When global warming is accepted by almost every scientist and with sound science behind it, whats not to believe.
First Strike: Bandwagon fallacy of doooooom!

You're going to tell me that because enough people say something is true, it makes it true? That's a fallacy. And besides, here's some signatures that go against the grain:
Here's a petition that says this debate isn't over: http://www.oism.org/pproject/
CO2 is a pollutant. We breathe it, but it still pollutes the atmosphere.
Define pollutant. Back in the Precambrian days, Oxygen was like Cyanide.

Whether or not we are causing global warming, I'm still all for recycling as often as possible, saving energy/water, and finding alternate energy sources.
Saving energy and water = saving money
eventual depletion of oil = need to find alternate energy sources
recycle = landfills are filling up, and I don't believe in wasting something

Have a cookie. Pragmatism and not Environmentalism.


But that small influence is the key difference. See, most CO2 emissions are coming from animals that ate plant matter which absorbed the carbon. Guess where they made the carbon matter from? CO2. In a very recent time too. However, now we are using carbon stored under the earth for 100 million years, and so we are releasing carbon that never should be released. This is the key difference, the reason why it is changing the environment.
So this is the "Pandora's Box" of Carbon eh? It doesn't matter WHERE the CO2 comes from. The CO2 from burning fossil fuels is the same compound. The only thing that matters is the amount that is generated, and the amount of CO2 it releases is actually quite small next to the huge amount generated next to animals, volcanoes, and the sea. (Cited in OP. The documentary)

Global dimming (the cooling that they're talking about) IS a current effect, and part of Global climate change.

The trend reversed in large part because of the reduction of the usage of aerosols, but it's a proven and still occurring force, and a partial negater of global warming.
Even if I took this at face value (you always have to question with political science), it certainly doesn't account for the
In 1971, Reid Bryson, a respected geologist and meteorologist from the University of Chicago, claimed that “The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population.” Later in 1976, a book written by Lowell Ponte called “The Cooling” claimed that “This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000.” I never observed such a cooling. Apparently this was forgotten when it never came true.
Because people started practicing self-control. Population increase rates have dropped dramatically in developed countries.

Countries that haven't... well third-world countries have more then enough people starving to death to show the truth of this forecast.
So you're explaining to me that human nature solved the problem. Developed countries tend to have lower birth rates. If that's the natural case, where was the problem in the first place. Again I'd like to point out that this:
Even before that, in 1968, Paul Erhlich, a German scientist and winner of the Nobel Prize in medicine in 1908, said “The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. Population control is the only answer.”
Is SUPER overblown.


Look, the only reason that you think this was a bad idea is because you're not in the field.

Whether or not it's a long-shot, the impact of such a far-reaching bug is potentially devastating, so we fix it ASAP.

Why? Because, when an entire infrastructure depends on a system that could collapse, sure there may only be like a 1% chance of it happening, but for the hundreds of trillions of dollars that depend on that infrastructure, a few billion is an absolute steal to protect it.

With that much at stake, it's worth protecting against the 1% chance.
Why not actually question the science and get someone to explain how the Y2K nightmare could have actually happened. You're being as trusting as my fellow Christians and I are accused of being, except your putting that trust in fallible, human work.

Note also that this was cleverly designed so that they (the computer scientists involved with the scare) could say the exact thing you just said as justification for tricking people into giving them money.


So... you post a group of crises that you believe you overblown (when in reality, you were wrong about EVERY SINGLE ONE), and then use it to discredit Global Warming, without any actual evidence about Global Warming?

Give me a break...
This is dumb. Even now, you buy into these theories? Even decades after the predicted Armageddon?

But the problem is that correlation hasn't just been established, CAUSATION has.
... Whiiiich brings us to the next point. Al Gore's Ice Core model doesn't show the correlation it's supposed to. When the graph is examined closely, one notices that the temperature raises before the CO2 levels do.

I quote myself during my sophomore year in high school:


Al Gore’s crowning piece of evidence toward man-made global warming is an ice-core model showing an extremely clear distinction between carbon dioxide levels and temperature. He says that the relationship is complicated but the strongest relation by far is shown in his model. This graph was one of the major scientific arguments in Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth”.

But there is one small problem with this graph. Perhaps Al Gore’s ice core was upside-down when it was analyzed, but a closer look at the graph will reveal that it is the temperature that is the first to fall and rise. The levels of carbon dioxide change some fifty to one hundred years after the temperature changes. What gives!? If carbon dioxide is supposed to change the earth’s temperature, then shouldn’t the carbon dioxide levels be changing before the temperature does? The answer to that question is that it isn’t the carbon dioxide affecting the heat; it’s the heat affecting the carbon dioxide!

So what accounts for this lag? The concept of homeostasis states that because water forms hydrogen bonds, it takes a considerable amount of energy to change the temperature of water. So, hypothetically, if the atmospheric temperature were to rise, some fifty years later, the ocean will have absorbed enough energy to heat up a few degrees. And when the ocean is hotter, it is not able to contain as much gas as it could before.

This is a basic science principle. Gas is less soluble in hotter liquid than in colder liquid. So when the ocean temperature rises, more carbon dioxide is able to escape into the atmosphere. So as it turns out, Al Gore’s graph turns out to be a bit of a double-edged sword. It seems unlikely that he did not see the lag when the graph was made.
*Gives a cookie to past self.* Check my citations on the OP for moar.

That's all for now, I gotta study.
 

adumbrodeus

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First Strike: Bandwagon fallacy of doooooom!

You're going to tell me that because enough people say something is true, it makes it true? That's a fallacy. And besides, here's some signatures that go against the grain:
Actually, he's telling you that the vast majority of legitimate authorities in the field are behind this point.

Bandwagon fallacy is a specialized form of appeal to authority fallacy, and like the appeal to authority fallacy, it's inapplicable when the authority is legitimate.


Define pollutant. Back in the Precambrian days, Oxygen was like Cyanide.
definition said:
In general, substance or energy introduced into the environment that has undesired effects, or adversely affects the usefulness of a resource.
Pollutant is defined based on having an adverse effect.



So this is the "Pandora's Box" of Carbon eh? It doesn't matter WHERE the CO2 comes from. The CO2 from burning fossil fuels is the same compound. And the amount of CO2 it releases is actually quite small next to the huge amount generated next to animals, volcanoes, and the sea. (Cited in OP. The documentary)
How is that the pandora's box of Carbon? It's a well-known fact that without greenhouse gases, the earth would be uninhabitable, at least to most current species (proximately 33 °C lower).

Sure it doesn't matter WHERE it came from, but there's a certain amount of necessary greenhouse gases, and less or more then that is an issue.

Even if I took this at face value (you always have to question with political science), it certainly doesn't account for the
The effects weren't fully understood, global warming was as much in effect, but the science wasn't firmly established. My point was that it was and still is, only part of the picture.

To dismiss current conclusions because a true effect turned out to not be dominant, well that's ludicrous.

Especially since it's STILL a major problem, not so much in the cooling itself, but in it's side effects.


The cooling is, and has occurred, but has mostly been reversed due people not relying on it's causation factors as much anymore (specific aerosols). This is at least partially because people took heed of their environmental consequences.


So, because the human interaction was scaled back, it significantly reverted, makes sense, no?


So you're explaining to me that human nature solved the problem. Developed countries tend to have lower birth rates. If that's the natural case, where was the problem in the first place. Again I'd like to point out that this: Is SUPER overblown.
What happened in the 1970s? Roe v. Wade, and a whole variety of birth control cases. Birth control in general became accepted, not just in the US, but across the world.

Except in third-world countries.


What happened was that significant social change occurred in developed nations, which I gather was the entire point of the "doomsday prediction".

However, it seems justified if a bit exaggerated in third-world nations.

Would it have not been an exaggeration if these social changes hadn't occurred, possibly.



Why not actually question the science and get someone to explain how the Y2K nightmare could have actually happened. You're being as trusting as my fellow Christians and I are accused of being, except your putting that trust in fallible, human work.

Note also that this was cleverly designed so that they (the computer scientists involved with the scare) could say the exact thing you just said as justification for tricking people into giving them money.
You need some schooling in the notion of "acceptable risk".

It's not about trust, for some things, no matter what you believe, the risks of being right or wrong are far too significant to risk being right or wrong.

The Y2K bug was an unacceptable risk, whether a disaster would've actually occurred or not is totally irrelevant in hindsight, the response was totally prudent because they could not positively establish that it would not happen, and with what was on the line at risk, any IT person who didn't make the call to Y2K-proof their systems deserved to be fired. It simply was not an acceptable risk.

Why? Because the vulnerability was known beforehand, and it was known that many many systems were at risk, including critical systems. It's different if it cannot be established that systems are at risk, but that fact was irrefutable.

The only question was, "what would the effect be", and when you're using a computer program where things as simple as being one digit off can cause cascading failures, destroying entire programs, do you really want to risk your entire company?


This is dumb. Even now, you buy into these theories? Even decades after the predicted Armageddon?
Because you're buying into fallacious over-simplification in every single example.




Edit:

Especially because you're ignoring human mitigation in EVERY example.


Sure, you have people claiming the apocalypse is around every corner, but the functional reality is reducing every issue to either "it will kill us all in the next 5 minutes!" or "it's nothing" doesn't do just about any issue justice.


Global dimming was and is a real issue that was only half the picture and has been massively mitigated.

Global starvation has been mostly mitigated in the first world by decreases in the rate of population increase due in large part to legal, but also social factors. But it's still a massive issue in the third world.

Y2K was just an example of unacceptable risk, and most people were saying not, "this will happen", but "we can't afford to risk this happening".



... Whiiiich brings us to the next point. Al Gore's Ice Core model doesn't show the correlation it's supposed to. When the graph is examined closely, one notices that the temperature raises before the CO2 levels do.

I quote myself during my sophomore year in high school:




*Gives a cookie to past self.* Check my citations on the OP for moar.

That's all for now, I gotta study.
How does THAT respond to my point?

That entire stupid graph is a correlation thing, not related to causation in the slightest.


An Inconvenient Truth was BS anyway, the only thing he got right was the conclusion. Please don't attempt to address mistakes in an inconvenient truth and assume that has any bearing on this debate.

That's like trying to bring up counterpoints Darwin's outdated theory of evolution to discredit current evolutionary theory.
 

BFDD

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Since this is a scientific discussion, and therefore a technical one, I must insist that you use the proper language, phrases like "negligible difference", "insignificant difference", and similar phrases indicate that, yes, there is a difference but it's too tiny to be worth discussing.
I thought that when i said there is no significant change in my previous posts that would have gotten my point across my bad. Its a good thing you don't read the thread before posting.

Back to the topic at hand, you have still failed to answer my question, how much do you claim it adjusts the earth's temperature?
About the same amount as throwing an ice cube into the ocean. It is an insignificant difference or negligible difference. Whatever you prefer to call it. I don't know an exact number but it would be small enough that it would be unmeasurable with our current technology.
 

adumbrodeus

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I thought that when i said there is no significant change in my previous posts that would have gotten my point across my bad. Its a good thing you don't read the thread before posting.
Which is why I posted "I assume you meant this", but asked you to confirm.

If you can't say what you mean you can never mean what you say.



About the same amount as throwing an ice cube into the ocean. It is an insignificant difference or negligible difference. Whatever you prefer to call it. I don't know an exact number but it would be small enough that it would be unmeasurable with our current technology.
And therein lies the problem, different "negligible amounts" in average temperature increase can equate to a great deal of heat. Since you aren't giving me your actual number, then give me your formula for arriving at this amount.
 
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