Jungle Republic Mafia: To Clarify, the Werewolves Won The Game. Here Marks a New Age in Activity Reform.

[Lore]

#HBC | Mac On the plus side you did play very similarly to me, which was a hell of a wake up call for myself. Thanks for that.

Really though I have no beef past this game, thanks for giving me a chance to say my complaints and move on. GG, looking forward to the next game.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

yea we still had *checks deadline* 36 more hours to force more outta ppl

i cant say im that mad though


Lore aiight fair. i really didn't see it that way but we each have our POVs. i don't think you're the only person who'd think i can be abrasive.

also you were right about the math lmao, i spent too long looking this up during the Night and realized I miscalculated the numbers. since 2 ppl being mafia aren't independent variables i can't just multiply the probabilities together. the real answer uses Combinatorial Probability.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

I’m doing the same **** I did in newbie mafia where I just keep giving the slot pass afternoon pass

i feel this hard

 

[KevinM]

I’m mad about it because we have two major question mark slots that are now hitting D3

Rajam being the main offender.
Maven at least put some current viewpoints out there.

 

[Lore]

Lore aiight fair. i really didn't see it that way but we each have our POVs. i don't think you're the only person who'd think i can be abrasive.

also you were right about the math lmao, i spent too long looking this up during the Night and realized I miscalculated the numbers. since 2 ppl being mafia aren't independent variables i can't just multiply the probabilities together. the real answer uses Combinatorial Probability.

No worries, lol. I've said my thing and it's all good. I don't even really need to do the post game thing; I just wanted to say it clearly where you know it's not part of some gambit, since you're about to see my alignment regardless.

Also I had a feeling about the stats lmao. I was so wtf when you posted those numbers.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

i really wasn't that far off.

these are the 100% definitely, no possible way im wrong numbers. (and i know yall dont care but gonna post it anywayz)

Spoiler

in a game with 12 players and 5 scum:

chance 2 players are both scum:
15.15%
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=((10+choose+3)+/+(12+choose+5))

chance 2 players are both town:
31.81%
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=((10+choose+5)+/+(12+choose+5))

chance only 1 of the players is scum:
53.03%
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=((10+choose+4)+/+(12+choose+5))+*+2

as a sanity check, confirm they add up to 100%
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/...+choose+5))+++((10+choose+5)+/+(12+choose+5))

 

[#HBC | Mac]

also KevinM is def town now

like he was town before but he's definitely definitely town now

 

[Lore]

i really wasn't that far off.

these are the 100% definitely, no possible way im wrong numbers. (and i know yall dont care but gonna post it anywayz)

Spoiler

in a game with 12 players and 5 scum:

chance 2 players are both scum:
15.15%
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=((10+choose+3)+/+(12+choose+5))

chance 2 players are both town:
31.81%
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=((10+choose+5)+/+(12+choose+5))

chance only 1 of the players is scum:
53.03%
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=((10+choose+4)+/+(12+choose+5))+*+2

as a sanity check, confirm they add up to 100%
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=((10+choose+4)+/+(12+choose+5))+*+2+++((10+choose+3)+/+(12+choose+5))+++((10+choose+5)+/+(12+choose+5))

Thanks! Yeah those are way better lol. Thanks for going all the way with this. Honestly I'm too tired to double check and will just trust you on it.

 

[Pythag]

Raxxel are you reading before you post?

 

[giraffelasergun]

As much as I hate to say it, at this point, flipping the Lore slot is the most productive thing to do. Otherwise Lore v Mac will just drag out to the end of the day while dominating the thread, and we'll likely be left lynching Lore anyway due to the majority vote on him. I think Lore's death is inevitable at this point, so I'd rather it happens now so we can keep progressing this conversation in the right direction more than anything else.

Vote Lore

And that's Hammer!

Votecount:

Lore: 6 (Mac, FrozenFlame, Pythag, Red Ryu, Maven, Raxxel)
KevinM: 2 (Z25, Raxxel, Rajam)
Z25: 1 (KevinM)
Red Ryu: 1 (Lore)

Lore has been Lynched. It has been revealed they are a Mafia Goon.

Night 2 has begun, and will end at 11:00 AM EST on 8/28/19

 

[giraffelasergun]

day 2 has not started, opening thread for utopian poyzin

 

[Z25]

Rax should absolutely go today.


I didn’t change my vote on you Kevin because I was avoiding the early hammer on lore and or allowing someone it easier.

Rax should have seen the post made requesting no hammers, as we were actually getting good discussion for once and still waiting to hear from some people again. Now maven has skated by another day without contributing to much and I really dislike that.

But rax deliberately caused all that. I think they should be the play today as that was really scummy

 

[giraffelasergun]

Just to reiterate, day hasn't started.

 

[Z25]

Just to reiterate, day hasn't started.

Sorry I misread that, and thought I was open, my mistake.

 

[Maven89]

https://imgflip.com/memegenerator

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

#HBC | Mac has been killed Night 2. It is revealed that they were the Vanilla Townie.

Day 3 begins now, and will end August 31 at 5 PM EST, at which time Night 3 will begin.

Now back on the 5 PM schedule.

 

[Maven89]

day 2 has not started, opening thread for utopian poyzin

This post originally said “ day 2 has started, no one died during the night”

 

[giraffelasergun]

This post originally said “ day 2 has started, no one died during the night”

There was a mixup between utopian and I, just to clarify. My fault.

 

[Maven89]

i feel like killing Mac helped me out with a nagging doubt that I had, and no one else. Both NKs have sucked.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

I was not around at 11 AM to start the day after the previous day’s hammer. I extended night to get us back on schedule, as 11 AM is more inconvenient than 3 PM was.

 

[Maven89]

Now maven has skated by another day without contributing to much and I really dislike that

Why me and not Rajam?

 

[Z25]

Damn Mac is dead. I was really reading him as town and enjoying his content. Now we lost one of our most actives.

 

[Z25]

Why me and not Rajam?

I’ve said this numerous times I heavily dislike both of you for the same reason. You both contribute once and lurk away while remaining way too inactive

 

[Z25]

Hell rajam clearly isn’t reading much of the thread which is just as bad

 

[Pythag]

Mac dying is pretty expected tbh. Towniest of town.

Rax upsets me because we could've gotten more talk during the day. Things were interesting.

Vote Red Ruy

I don't need to be convinced for voting RR or Rajam.

#HBC | FrozeηFlame why exactly is Z25 scummy? is it merely because of his defensiveness?

KevinM How do you read maven postulation at Mac v Lore being Scum v Scum given the NK?

Raxxel Why did you end the day so early? The discussion was really profitable.

 

[Z25]

Mac dying is pretty expected tbh. Towniest of town.

Rax upsets me because we could've gotten more talk during the day. Things were interesting.

Vote Red Ruy

I don't need to be convinced for voting RR or Rajam.

#HBC | FrozeηFlame why exactly is Z25 scummy? is it merely because of his defensiveness?

KevinM How do you read maven postulation at Mac v Lore being Scum v Scum given the NK?

Raxxel Why did you end the day so early? The discussion was really profitable.

What do you think of maven actually? Since your here I want to try and get a good discussion going again.

 

[Pythag]

Initially I liked Maven for him jumping on RR.

I can't totally shake the idea though, that if Kevin is clear, and I'm inclined to think he is at this point.

Scum could be :
Lore, Tom, Maven

Ww could be :
RR, .....1 other (Rajam, Raxxel or You)

Maven being on RR could easily be Scum that has been scum hunting.

I don't like the slot but I'd like to see what others are thinking, considering flips.

 

[KevinM]

Every time I can bro a game with Mac one of us dies before D3... literally doomed to never be able to finish a game.

Still extremely mad about the Raxxel vote, inclined to see we need to deal with this slot sooner rather than later but I'd like to stick with one of Z25 or RR today.

Heavily leaning Z25 but both slots have been on my radar since D1.

Pythag thoughts on how we deal with a slot like Raxxel.

We are down to 3 anti-town slots, 5 town slots.

I am starting to feel the pressure of hitting a WW. Going into D3 we ML and they still have a night kill we are in some serious trouble.

Worst case scenario we go down to

1 Mafia
2 WW
3 Townies

Which then is actually MYLO

So we're not technically in Mylo yet but we're pretty damn close. Stopping night kills should be our biggest priority.

Z25 is my biggest lean on WW, RR is up there and I could see that being a team or at the very least both anti-town. Raxxel if he is our last WW is a major concern because we can't really afford to guess on this slot.

Rajam being allowed to make it to D3 like this is literally worst case scenario for us because if he's town he's never drawing a Nkill because he's got so many question marks on his slot for just severe lack of activity and if he's WW we're basically lynching him on Inactivity == Scum like Mac was saying yesterDay

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Raxxel why did you hammer early? Did you not read the thread or why end it?

Rajam given these flips where do you stand with the left over bunch that wanna be offed?

KevinM time to vote me, also who is my mate and why? Do you have any doubts with me? Still think z25 is scum?

Z25 of whom is left who is a WW from what you can gather?

Pythag who is my mate? Are you done being hung up with my day 1 post?

I want to reread Pythag and figure out if I am ok with FF overall. FF is being extremely agreeable in a way I wanna dig into but I’ll trust Mac on this.

Feeling before anything I want to lynch Pythag, why are people calling this slot town? Even with a wedding content gives me nothing substantial. Nothing firm.

I want to figure out z25 vs KevinM, i think Z25 reacted poorly yesterday but I have a distrust of KevinM on how he interacted and formed some reads. A lot of hows I am working with the dots. Z25 played a lot of defense which is not a good tell for me.

I’d lean more on z25 being scum in this but a lot of it is my distrust of KevinM. Given Mac flipped down my worry of Mac + KevinM running town as WWs paranoia is gone.

I think Maven is trying to think on his own more than others with good substance. I get his mindset step by step.

I dislike Raxxel’s early hammer when I wanted Rajam content but I dunno if I would push to off him on that alone.

Lynch:
Pythag
Z25/KevinM (leaning more z)
Rajam

Thinking:
KevinM (twice cause I need to think on this hard)
Raxxel(more in town pile)

Town:
Raxel(thinking)
FF
Maven

Vote: Pythag

 

[KevinM]

How do you read maven postulation at Mac v Lore being Scum v Scum given the NK?

Still Scum or Dumb, like I said I'm having trouble taking anyone on a town level that doubted t!Mac because like... it was pretty blatantly obvious he was just based off his consistent views.

 

[KevinM]

KevinM KevinM time to vote me, also who is my mate and why? Do you have any doubts with me? Still think z25 is scum?

See above for my viewpoint on your slot and Z25. Are you deliberately being whiny with the WW stuff or do you just think it's time to be obtuse on D3?

I don't see a single situation where I vote for Pythag today.

Currently its:

Z25
RR


Rajam
Raxxel
Maven

Pythag
FF


Z25 Given what I've said about how close we are to MYLO, what does your current lynch pool look like. Also give me two names that are definite lynch candidates today and if they are WW or Mafia to you.

 

[Z25]

Raxxel why did you hammer early? Did you not read the thread or why end it?

Rajam given these flips where do you stand with the left over bunch that wanna be offed?

KevinM time to vote me, also who is my mate and why? Do you have any doubts with me? Still think z25 is scum?

Z25 of whom is left who is a WW from what you can gather?

Pythag who is my mate? Are you done being hung up with my day 1 post?

I want to reread Pythag and figure out if I am ok with FF overall. FF is being extremely agreeable in a way I wanna dig into but I’ll trust Mac on this.

Feeling before anything I want to lynch Pythag, why are people calling this slot town? Even with a wedding content gives me nothing substantial. Nothing firm.

I want to figure out z25 vs KevinM, i think Z25 reacted poorly yesterday but I have a distrust of KevinM on how he interacted and formed some reads. A lot of hows I am working with the dots. Z25 played a lot of defense which is not a good tell for me.

I’d lean more on z25 being scum in this but a lot of it is my distrust of KevinM. Given Mac flipped down my worry of Mac + KevinM running town as WWs paranoia is gone.

I think Maven is trying to think on his own more than others with good substance. I get his mindset step by step.

I dislike Raxxel’s early hammer when I wanted Rajam content but I dunno if I would push to off him on that alone.

Lynch:
Pythag
Z25/KevinM (leaning more z)
Rajam

Thinking:
KevinM (twice cause I need to think on this hard)
Raxxel(more in town pile)

Town:
Raxel(thinking)
FF
Maven

Vote: Pythag

See above for my viewpoint on your slot and Z25. Are you deliberately being whiny with the WW stuff or do you just think it's time to be obtuse on D3?

I don't see a single situation where I vote for Pythag today.

Currently its:

Z25
RR


Rajam
Raxxel
Maven

Pythag
FF


Z25 Given what I've said about how close we are to MYLO, what does your current lynch pool look like. Also give me two names that are definite lynch candidates today and if they are WW or Mafia to you.

These are both the same type of question so I’ll answer in one post.

I don’t think the WW would be an inactive, let alone a newbie player. I can’t rationalize how someone in that type of position would target Mac. There’s a chance but taking out a big contributor is honestly something I don’t see a newbie doing or an inactive. The problem with the later is any inactive could have just been lurking and actually paying attention( I honestly think this is what maven is doing)

So with that in mind I think a more veteran player killed Mac.

I’d wager right now likely WW would be maven and Red.

I think maven is a really solid play today.

As for the last mafia goin, I’m positive it’s between rax or rajam. I don’t know who to lean more towards though. Right now I’m leaning rajam for them blatantly not keeping up. They might be new but I dont think that should excuse them from acting like that. Makes me think a mafia team mate likely wants one of those two to stay low since they are new.

And we know lore was a mafia goon so I can see that being advice they would give

 

[Z25]

These are both the same type of question so I’ll answer in one post.

I don’t think the WW would be an inactive, let alone a newbie player. I can’t rationalize how someone in that type of position would target Mac. There’s a chance but taking out a big contributor is honestly something I don’t see a newbie doing or an inactive. The problem with the later is any inactive could have just been lurking and actually paying attention( I honestly think this is what maven is doing)

So with that in mind I think a more veteran player killed Mac.

I’d wager right now likely WW would be maven and Red.

I think maven is a really solid play today.

As for the last mafia goin, I’m positive it’s between rax or rajam. I don’t know who to lean more towards though. Right now I’m leaning rajam for them blatantly not keeping up. They might be new but I dont think that should excuse them from acting like that. Makes me think a mafia team mate likely wants one of those two to stay low since they are new.

And we know lore was a mafia goon so I can see that being advice they would give

So to sum this up: my top 3 for today/

1) Maven
2)Rax
3)Rax

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

See above for my viewpoint on your slot and Z25. Are you deliberately being whiny with the WW stuff or do you just think it's time to be obtuse on D3?

I don't see a single situation where I vote for Pythag today.

Currently its:

Z25
RR


Rajam
Raxxel
Maven

Pythag
FF


Z25 Given what I've said about how close we are to MYLO, what does your current lynch pool look like. Also give me two names that are definite lynch candidates today and if they are WW or Mafia to you.

Obtuse? Me? Maybe?

You are on point not lynching a WW = Mylo.

Still why you do buddy and liking Pythag? What was a huge town tell for him?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

So to sum this up: my top 3 for today/

1) Maven
2)Rax
3)Rax

I’m assuming one is a Rajam right?

 

[Rajam]

Finished reading D1. Currently at page 11. Sharing some of my notes:

Frozenflame
His 1st post came in #253. Voted against Lore. Before that, the votecount was:
Tom (3): Maven, Lore, Raxxel
Raxxel (2): Rajam, Ryu
Mac (2): Brindor, Tom
Ryu (1): pythag
Lore (1): Mac
pythag (1): KevinM
With the day extension happening at that point, I think the push on Lore is hardly a bus. Case looks solid, and the vote had all the time and potential to trigger a real lynch. Frozen not scum with Lore. This idea is fueled in #303
#303: Keeps fueling Lore's lynch. Definitely not scum with Tom/Lore

Red Ryu
Up to #57, then up to #65: Seems like not scum with Raxxel

KevinM
#24: Same question for both Z25 and Brindor, seems like an attempt to ‘hide’ a scummate
#82: Doesn’t seem like a bus against Pythag
#82: The read on Raxxel as newb town seems legit
#272: Votes up to this point, before Kevin moves onto Lore:
Mac (3): Brindor, Tom, Lore
Tom (2): Maven, Raxxel
Raxxel (2): Rajam, Ryu
Lore (2): Mac, Frozen
Ryu (1): Pythag
Pythag (1): KevinM
Jumping on Lore might mean KevinM not scum with them (Tom/Lore), considering Mac had more votes, the vote on Lore brought back the momentum on Lore again, and considering Z25 was expressing issues against Mac in #270
#325: Town points for Kevin just for being around during deadline
#336: More town points for still being around and deciding to keep the vote on Lore

Lore (Mafia Goon)
#168: Could’ve left #167 alone and had enough reasons to either vote Mac or let it growth, instead in the next post shifts to Ryu. Not scum with him
#186 to #188: Not scum with KevinM. #186 goes hard; #187 leaves him aside a bit, #188 goes back to Kevin
#283: Why the need to make the clarification of Pythag being null?

Maven
#182: Where’s Maven head anyways? Doesn’t pressure Brindor, doesn’t vote Tom (even if he is Tom’s scummate, it would’ve been easy to vote him, since no one was on Tom)
#182: Not scum with Frozen: considering his reputation, don’t think he’d ask him to be replaced
#339: Decides to keep vote on Brindor despite expressing concerns about Lore and the wagon fueling again (Mac voted Lore back in #337)

Pythag
#30 + #31: Small vibes not aligned with Tom
#255: Good question, but why not ask Tom the same?
#284: The Lore read smells, the parenthesis ‘(this is wifom)’ comes as selfdefense in case of Lore’s flip

Raxxel
#92: Town vibes and the shift on Mac seems legit

Z25
#39: Looks like not scum with Maven. More in #41
#270: Case on Mac stinks. Pressure is the tool town has to scumhunt
#270: Votes up to this point:
Mac (3): Brindor, Tom, Lore
Tom (2): Maven, Raxxel
Raxxel (2): Rajam, Ryu
Lore (2): Mac, Frozen
Ryu (1): Pythag
Pythag (1): KevinM
Why not vote Mac? Why not vote at all? Fear of joining Tom and Lore? Looks like scummate (vote came later in #291)
#393: wishy-washy on Brindor, looks like an excuse to vote on ppl regardless of whether they voted Brindor or not

 

[KevinM]

Still why you do buddy and liking Pythag? What was a huge town tell for him?

I'm having the opposite Mac problem that I am scumreading most of this game, this would normally bother me ie: last game but considering the amount of anti-town slots I'm at a 4 town 3 anti scum ratio it makes more sense to me this game taking myself out to get a better percentage idea. Of the slots I think need to go he isn't near close to the top of my list.

 

[Z25]

Finished reading D1. Currently at page 11. Sharing some of my notes:

Frozenflame
His 1st post came in #253. Voted against Lore. Before that, the votecount was:
Tom (3): Maven, Lore, Raxxel
Raxxel (2): Rajam, Ryu
Mac (2): Brindor, Tom
Ryu (1): pythag
Lore (1): Mac
pythag (1): KevinM
With the day extension happening at that point, I think the push on Lore is hardly a bus. Case looks solid, and the vote had all the time and potential to trigger a real lynch. Frozen not scum with Lore. This idea is fueled in #303
#303: Keeps fueling Lore's lynch. Definitely not scum with Tom/Lore

Red Ryu
Up to #57, then up to #65: Seems like not scum with Raxxel

KevinM
#24: Same question for both Z25 and Brindor, seems like an attempt to ‘hide’ a scummate
#82: Doesn’t seem like a bus against Pythag
#82: The read on Raxxel as newb town seems legit
#272: Votes up to this point, before Kevin moves onto Lore:
Mac (3): Brindor, Tom, Lore
Tom (2): Maven, Raxxel
Raxxel (2): Rajam, Ryu
Lore (2): Mac, Frozen
Ryu (1): Pythag
Pythag (1): KevinM
Jumping on Lore might mean KevinM not scum with them (Tom/Lore), considering Mac had more votes, the vote on Lore brought back the momentum on Lore again, and considering Z25 was expressing issues against Mac in #270
#325: Town points for Kevin just for being around during deadline
#336: More town points for still being around and deciding to keep the vote on Lore

Lore (Mafia Goon)
#168: Could’ve left #167 alone and had enough reasons to either vote Mac or let it growth, instead in the next post shifts to Ryu. Not scum with him
#186 to #188: Not scum with KevinM. #186 goes hard; #187 leaves him aside a bit, #188 goes back to Kevin
#283: Why the need to make the clarification of Pythag being null?

Maven
#182: Where’s Maven head anyways? Doesn’t pressure Brindor, doesn’t vote Tom (even if he is Tom’s scummate, it would’ve been easy to vote him, since no one was on Tom)
#182: Not scum with Frozen: considering his reputation, don’t think he’d ask him to be replaced
#339: Decides to keep vote on Brindor despite expressing concerns about Lore and the wagon fueling again (Mac voted Lore back in #337)

Pythag
#30 + #31: Small vibes not aligned with Tom
#255: Good question, but why not ask Tom the same?
#284: The Lore read smells, the parenthesis ‘(this is wifom)’ comes as selfdefense in case of Lore’s flip

Raxxel
#92: Town vibes and the shift on Mac seems legit

Z25
#39: Looks like not scum with Maven. More in #41
#270: Case on Mac stinks. Pressure is the tool town has to scumhunt
#270: Votes up to this point:
Mac (3): Brindor, Tom, Lore
Tom (2): Maven, Raxxel
Raxxel (2): Rajam, Ryu
Lore (2): Mac, Frozen
Ryu (1): Pythag
Pythag (1): KevinM
Why not vote Mac? Why not vote at all? Fear of joining Tom and Lore? Looks like scummate (vote came later in #291)
#393: wishy-washy on Brindor, looks like an excuse to vote on ppl regardless of whether they voted Brindor or not

-day one

....

Why?

 

[Z25]

I’m assuming one is a Rajam right?

Yes the third one should be ram

 

[Rajam]

#HBC | FrozeηFlame :
- Your defense of pythag in #304 feels off, considering you had him as a confusing town lean in #253. Why not wait a bit to further develop a read?
- Did you ever deliver the results of your read about Jungle Republic theory, offered at #394?
- What's your read on Z25?

#HBC | Red Ryu :
Why the urge to put that 2nd paragraph in your #300 ('granted if you had a gun to my head I think Lore’s reaction is less convincing if you made me pick between the two') when you already made it clear in your 1st paragraph that you read Mac vs Lore as TvsT?

KevinM :
In #274 you said: 'Mac complaining about newer players all scumreading him for being aggressive is biggg vibe.'. Big vibes of what? Town? Scum?

Pythag :
Your question directed at frozen at the end of your #255 was good, but why didn't you asked Tom the same?

Z25 :
Why didn't you vote in #270? Why no vote at all up to that point?