Lucario
Difficulty: Average
Appearance: Common
Returning
When returning to the stage, know that if you are ANYWHERE near Lucario, he will hit you. He has a *****in' projectile that will kill you if you are up+bing since you cannot air dodge, and his fair hits above and in front of him. Did I mention that his dair completely takes the ledge out of the equation if he so chooses?
You are at a serious disadvantage when returning. Lucario can rarely KILL you like this, but he can almost always deal a ton of damage. Your best bet is to recover high, very high, and land on the stage with an air dodge or falling nair. If you have to grab the edge, Lucario again has the advantage. His dair out prioritizes your u-air, his jab sets you up for several combos of his and is practically lagless, and one mistake makes you forward smashed to hell. Generally your goal here is to get on the stage or get Lucario off.
If you can, bait him by grabbing the ledge continuously. Most Lucario's think they are clever when they run off and dair several times. They are not. Simply roll or stand up on the stage then edgeguard appropriately. If you cannot bait them off the stage and they simpy spam aura sphere, jabs, tilts, and smashes.... your best bet is a jump off ledge +air dodge or a roll to get behind them and then pray you don't get knocked off the ledge again.
If you want to be risky, you can try a drop off ledge to jumping fast-falled nair followed by a d-tilt, or sometimes a single fastfalled fair. Many Lucarios are VERY shield happy; once they shield, they are able to come out with a jab (which combos into their d-tilt or over-b) or a fair that allows them to dair your shield (that shield pokes often, too).
Edgeguarding
Bair. Plain and simple, bair is how you do it. Set yourself up to fall with him or, if you cannot, hover near the ledge. When he starts his up+b, bair him. Grab ledge or land on stage, repeat.
Fair works, but it sends him up and out so it it much harder to gimp with this unless he is at low % or fair is weakened. Your main goal is to remove his second jump or send him out far enough to force him to up+b, and from there you can bair him. If you can fall ABOVE him, a dair is also possible... but stick to bair.
Many Lucarios will commit the sin of jumping into the ****. You b-throw them off the edge, and they immediately jump forward. Why do so many Lucarios do this? Because their forward air comes out fast and has insane priority; this allows them to safely land on the stage. But them doing this is just plain silly. Angle an f-tilt and then short hop fair in place to knock them back off or, if you prefer, short hop and fully charged gyro or laser. From there, they will have to use their up +b.
If it turns out you have to hit them with your fair to knock them away from the edge and you are facing the wrong way, don't be afraid to shoot a laser to make them fall or do a gyro cancel to face the opposite direction.
While it SOUNDS like Lucario can be super easily gimped from reading the above... he can't. Many Lucario players will end up making it back to the stage no matter how good you are; he has many options and the more damage he takes the more likely he will survive. Luckily for you, once he uses his up+b this is an almost guaranteed 80% or so. From here you can proceed with killing him as per normal. Just be wary of Lucario's at high % and focus on getting him off the stage. Remember, when Lucario is returning he can't combo; on the stage he can.
Approaching
Approaching spike hands mcdougal is difficult. His OOS options are very good, his aerial game is just as good as yours if not better, and if he is at a high % trading hits with him means you are taking more damage than he is. That's bad, especially considering the huge gap that will appear if you are down a stock!
That said, there are three ways you really want to approach Lucario:
F-tilt
Grab
Dash attack
Those 3 are gold in this matchup, and are listed in order of effectiveness. If you f-tilt, Lucario can't really punish you. He can f-smash, but you can f-tilt him before he finishes it. From there, you can follow up with whatever you'd like. Your grab isn't amazing, but it gets him off the stage (which is where you want him).
Your dash attack is good in that it puts Lucario on the defensive. Try to push him in the direction you want and don't attempt to punish him unless he makes a mistake with an aerial or hits the ground. U-tilting Lucario makes it look like he is ready for a u-air, but to Lucario it looks like you're ready for a face full of down-air.
Defending
Again, don't attempt to punish Lucario unless you KNOW he is open or your move outranges him. F-tilt, nair, bair, u-smash, things like that. Hitting him with u-air or fair is a good way to get hit back.
When he's approaching you, they standard approaches are fair to nair, landing behind you, then short hop dairing or just turning around and jabbing. They also will frequenlty full hop fair to repeated dairs on your shield. These WILL shield poke, so be careful.
His aura sphere spam is also incredibly powerful, especially at high %. These can deal 12% when spammed!!! Don't try to challenge it. Shield, walk forward, shield, walk forward, and be ready to f-tilt. Alternatively, you can jump and laser; Lucario telegraphs his aura sphere, so moving to plats to angle lasers at him works well. Just be sure not to trade hits with your laser and his sphere.
Two tricks with your projectiles against him is to shoot a fully charged gyro; it will often go through the aura spheres or simply destroy it and bounce back towards you depending on the level of his charge. If it bounces back, this gives you an opportunity to glide toss in the near future! The other trick is to simply powershield for 20 seconds, then trade hits. You shoot a fully charged laser, he shoots an aura sphere; you'll both take near the same damage, but he's off the stage!
When he's jabbing you, you either want to DI towards him and mash jump to footstool (if you can react fast enough, dair) or just DI away. Most Lucarios jab jab over-b or d-tilt, both of which are laggy enough to punish if you DI away from his jabs far enough to make him miss.
Stages to Ban
Norfair - While not inherently a good Lucario stage, his ability to survive here when edgeguarded makes one of ROB's biggest strenghts disappear. Add to that the new emphasis on aerial games and Lucario has himself a nice place against ROB.
Green Hill Zone- this may be a local thing, but Bloodhawk has taken me here and he is able to spam aura sphere ALL DAY here. Not only that, but there is no edgeguarding! Super hard to do anything worthwhile against Lucario here, and he can easily KO you in any direction.
Stages to Counterpick
Luigi's Mansion- "But OS, he lives forever here!" Yeah, I know. You can prevent this by destroying the house when you please, but the main point of this stage against Lucario is that he can spam aura sphere through the pillars while you can laser AND his aerial game is hurt. The ceiling is low enough to where a fair to dair from him leaves him open for a grab or tilt many times. Did I also mention that most of the fighting will take place near the edges of the stage, meaning you'll have ample opportunity to edgeguard him?
Frigate- The lack of a ledge on the right side of the first transformation = easy gimps. You can actually edgeguard with d-tilt here!
Corneria- Camping by the fin gives you opportunity for an infinite, that's great, but the big thing is that everyone dies sooner here. This means that Lucario won't get his % boost as he normally does. Plus, you can have f-throw/b-throw to f-smash combos here and those are
sexy.
Possible secondaries you may want to consider
ROB should work well enough for this matchup.
Synopsis
Lucario has the advantage in the beginning of conflict, and is at a disadvantage at the end. That is the basic summary of this matchup. Let Lucario think he is in control and be patient, then you'll get your chance and he will be defenseless.
