I consider this 60/40 in warios favor. (Keep in mind I don't have at good Lucarios to practice with.)
Lucario can combo at low % at any aura lvl.
At high % fast damage wracking.
Nice command grab.
Amazing recovery.
Somewhat small.
Amazing kill power at high %.
At high % can kill early.
Somewhat faster moves.
Wario has trouble killing without waft or a good read.
You are hard to edgeguard with super speed's...well...super speed. (Keep in mind, Hard=\=Impossible.)
Doesn't have to approach...........until now really.
For Wario, it goes like this:
Heavy, so hard to kill.
Can completely camp lucario out with Chomp. This means that he isn't forced to approach to give lots of damage, and in return can camp untilwaft is charged, approach, nair-waft, and camp again.
Wario is more agile.
More range.
Arguably better command grab, which, when combined with his aerial mobility, is a pain in the arse.
Lucario is somewhat light too.
I feel if the Wario religiously follows the camping style, he can win this MU. If the Lucario somehow denies camping, he can win. (Just my thoughts. Once again, I've never fought a GOOD Lucario b4. I'm just analyzing their data and styles.)
All in All, I Say
vs.
is 55/45-60/40
.
Wario is floaty and around medium-weight, so you can kill him a tad earlier.
Maybe it is just me, but I don't consider 10th heaviest, tied with IKE, mid weight. He is def a heavy, just a light Heavy.