Majoras Mask Mafia! DGames' Longest Game Ends - Who Won?!?!?!?

[th3kuzinator]

If the Poisoner isn't part of the mafia, this plan will make us lose.

Unvote

 

[th3kuzinator]

Unvote

for now

 

[Raziek]

How, Kuz?

The indies would have to be linked and Nabe would be dead.

 

[th3kuzinator]

What if the indies weren't linked?

 

[Raziek]

What numbers are we looking at here? I'm confused.

 

[Raziek]

Blah, class is over. I expect an explanation by the time I get home.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

unvote

So what does a second indy not being linked change for this?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

2 mafia with a poisoner and an abductor wouldn't account for the kill on Kantrip, since for Night 2, T-block was abducted and Xastrn is dead. It would have to be 3-1-1-Town, or 2-1-1-1-Town. Or, maybe T-block happens to be the member of a 2-person mafia who can normal kill while abducted, allowing 2-1-1-Town to be viable in concept. Of course, this says nothing about the balance.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Say there's 2 mafia left. These two mafia would have to be RR and T-Block. Say Acrostic is the poisoner but he's not mafia.

7 right now. Lynch Nabe, 6. T-Block comes back 7. Inferno will have blocked the poison from last Night (scary thought, maybe poison goes through protection IDK). If the poisoner isn't part of the mafia there will be a NK. 6. We identify that Acrostic is the indy and lynch him. 5. RR and Tblock still alive and NK 4. We lose.

Even if we pin Acrostic toMorrow we might still be in trouble.

Thinking about it, keeping Nabe alive keeps one scum still out of the game and pretty much renders him useless as a number. If Nabe is indy pairs with someone, he would not have given up. Simple as that. So either he's alone or his partner is not life linked. opting to think he's alone but there still may be a separate poisoner not in the mafia.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

But you said earlier that I wouldn't give up if I were alone! Blasphemy.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Poison going through a jailing is a bit FUDsy as well, given that Inferno's claimed ability roleblocks its target. Unless I'm wildly confused.

 

[th3kuzinator]

All I know is that lynching Nabe toDay means we're probably leaving one mafia alone toNight to kill whoever the **** he wants which is bad for us (cuz of inferno). If this person is Acrostic (and Acrostic is the poisoner) we have nothing to worry about. If Acrostic isn't the poisoner and is mafia or is mafia and isn't the poisoner we're in trouble.

I think saving Nabe for now while he's not a liability and taking out other scum toDay with our lynch might be very useful.

Thoughts.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I don't suppose I really care, aside from having to prod-dodge every so often. But at some point, T-block will be back, and on that Night he'll kill. Isn't it better to tear the band-aid?

 

[th3kuzinator]

Not really considering we don't know if he has any other abilities to bring the the table while if we act on this now we can stunt further night kills from happening (by wiping out the poisoner or hitting the other mafia so they don't have another NK).

At this point we'll start seeing some no NKs at which point his entry into the game (especially if Infero is still alive) won't be a problem.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Vote: Acrostic

Also okay with RR.

 

[th3kuzinator]

If Acrostic is the poisoner then we're kinda golden assuming Inferno blocks RR. We'd block both NKs this way and would be set for toMorrow.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

All I know is that lynching Nabe toDay means we're probably leaving one mafia alone toNight to kill whoever the **** he wants which is bad for us (cuz of inferno). If this person is Acrostic (and Acrostic is the poisoner) we have nothing to worry about. If Acrostic isn't the poisoner and is mafia or is mafia and isn't the poisoner we're in trouble.

I think saving Nabe for now while he's not a liability and taking out other scum toDay with our lynch might be very useful.

Thoughts.

So who do we lynch if not Nabe?

The pool will be, Kuzi, Acro, RR. To everyone.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Got ninja'd.

 

[th3kuzinator]

If Acrostic is the final mafia then we have a problem though. Uhg.

I'm not in the lynch pool. I'm obvtown.

Either the poisoner is mafia (and thus is Acrostic). Or there is a mafia/poisoner pair that consists of You and Acrostic while having Nabe as the abductor.

Ie I know who all the scum are but we need to be smart about how we eliminate then.

 

[th3kuzinator]

NK is out of the question as well as if Acrostic isn't the Mafia Poisoner we're boned.

Either lynching Nabe and hoping things go our way or lynching Acrostic and jailing RR.

 

[th3kuzinator]

No lynch is out of the question*

 

[Inferno3044]

Poison going through a jailing is a bit FUDsy as well, given that Inferno's claimed ability roleblocks its target. Unless I'm wildly confused.

Whomever I target is protected from a kill, but they are roleblocked as well. Solid was probably poisoned N1 which is why my jail on him didn't protect him. As I said on D3, I think poisoner is mafia. There would be no reason for them to not try and kill Solid N2 after claiming lovers with no sign of a protective role known to them. My guess is that they poisoned Solid and took another target for free.

Also heads up, Acro is almost confirmed scum. Think about it like this:

*Solid gets poisoned N1, dies D3.
*T-Block vanishes D2 instead of a NK.
*NK occured N2.
*I jailed Acrostic. No NK occured D3.

I think that T-Block's action was to kill Nabe, but due to Nabe's power T-Block vanished. I know it's possible for T-Block to have done a different night action, but this makes the most sense to me.

 

[th3kuzinator]

lol you're stuff is a little off.

here's most likely what happened.

N1: Poisoner (hopefully mafia) poisons Solid. Mafia (T-Block) kills Nabe. Inferno roleblocks Dabuz N1 (this confirms Dabuz as town because there was a poison kill N2)
N2: Poisoner poisons Circus. Mafia kill Kantrip. Inferno jails Solid (does nothing).
N3: Unknown. The poison from the last Night came thorough but there was no kill. This either means that the NK was blocked by blocking Acro (meaning he's the last mafia; if he's also the poisoner we're golden).

If RR poisoned someone N3 and we kill the last mafia we still may be ****ed. Meh.

If this is the case then Inferno is probably already dead. If he's not we're fine but I'd assume someone poisoned him last Night if they weren't blocked.

This comes down to whether Inferno can block a poison toNight assuming he's already dead. Does the kill from the previous night come before his jail? This is based on some type of resolution we don't know so its entirely a gamble.

 

[th3kuzinator]

So what we're looking at here is this.

Nabe - Abductor
T-Block - Confirmed Mafia (confirmed not poisoner)
Acro - Pretty much Confirmed Mafia (could be poisoner could be some other type of mafia).

RR - Either VT or poisoner if Acro isn't.

Raz, Dabuz, Inferno all clear. If I'm wrong on any of those we've pretty much lost.

Now which method would involve making the best use of this info?

 

[th3kuzinator]

Yeah just from looking at that we have an exponentially greater chance of winning if we leave Nabe alone for now than if we kill him and have T-Block come back.

Both options aren't the greatest but we have a much better chance with the first.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Yup just ran the numbers for a third time. Acro lynch is the way to go.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I also did the math and possible outcomes, checking it.

Kuz is correct, lynching Acro has a much lower chance of failure of town if I accounted for every outcome and possibility.

Hoping OS isn't lying when he replaced out.

Vote: Acrostic

 

[th3kuzinator]

Why do you keep saying that...

 

[Inferno3044]

I believe Acro is at L-1 atm (Nabe, Kuz, RR). I'm not going to hammer him right now. I want him to see this and respond.

 

[th3kuzinator]

This also defeats all logic that we've used before in assessing the mafia team.

We thought that the mafia may not have a consistent NK and it was only poison instead but they probably have one every Night assuming it was blocked N3 and it failed N1/

 

[th3kuzinator]

Anything that he will respond with now will be entirely wifom used to throw us off.

I'm okay with hammer.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Unless it's his reads in the event of ML, lol. Not hard to choose to ignore what he says in the event he flips scum.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Oh we're still entertaining the possibility that he's flipping town?

Doubt it.

 

[Raziek]

Kuz what if Nabe is lying and performing the NKs? >_>

 

[th3kuzinator]

Then he wouldn't claim abductor and keep going because in most circumstances that would warrant his lynch. The reason he's living toDay is through my rationale alone. If he was doing the kills he'd be on a team with the mafia and thus would not want to sacrifice to the real abductor.

 

[Raziek]

Alright, let's just hammer and get this over with then.

vote: Acrostic

 

[th3kuzinator]

And if we already have a poisoner and an abductor there's no way in hell he's an SK. Especially with the no kills on N1 and N3. It makes way more sense logically that the mafia had a Nightly kill that was just Nabe'd N1 and blocked N3.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Inferno listen to me. If RR is the poisoner you're probably already dead. If you're somehow still alive and can jail toNight, jail Red Ryu. Regardless of what Acro flips.

Everyone else is town.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Except Nabe but thats separate issue.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

Did you guys just let Kooz swing another lynch?