Kinda leaning back towards defaulting to the long-range fireball traps.
It's just more universally applicable, consistent, and while not IMMEDIATELY more rewarding, the fact it denies the opponent the ability to return to neutral without chains of risk, is pretty crazy.
But the real clincher is the fact it plays into the low-vulnerability traps. At the applicable range (Just past ledge roll spawn) Mario can 2-frame most characters with fireball. Obviously, this itself isn't very rewarding. But coupled with the ability to get them while recovering as well, the consistency is extremely reliable.
And I think I've figured out the flowchart best suited for covering the low vulnerability scenario. To the point it ALSO feels very intentionally designed.
From within the same initial movement, mario can cover EVERY option.
(Dash > Turnaround > X)
Dash > Turnaround is where it all begins.
Dash Turnaround > Fsmash gets more range since the turnaround carries dash momentum. (And honestly feels easier to do.)
This covers jump, hang, and rising options all with the same timing.
Then, at a different range, it covers Standard, Get-up Attack, and Rising options. By simply charging and waiting. (But does not cover hang and jump)
*It may actually be easier, and better to NOT turnaround if aiming to Fsmash standard/getup.
And while it may seem odd, Dash > Turnaround > Dsmash is better for covering roll/standard (and other rising options since it functions a lot like fsmash here)
You COULD just dash > dsmash, but there's a lot of benefits to turnaround:
1: Back hit of dsmash is MUCH safer on shield. (mistimed) Since it's stronger, and the finishing hit.
2: The front hit of dsmash is quicker, making it feasible to hit ledge roll in start-up. (you do not have the range to hit it at end)
3: The timing on the backhit of dsmash just seems to work out better. (It could also be a bigger hitbox, though I don't think it lingers more)
The issue is, front hit of dsmash doesn't kill that well. ESPECIALLY across stage. But it does at least cover it. And with the charge time allowed to it sometimes, it can kill at reasonable percents.
Dash > turnaround also goes well into bair, of course. Though SH bair doesn't kill until fairly late, it does cover more options. All the main ones actually. (Even roll, if you tried to bair a ledge jump, you can just uair a ledge roll. And landing uair kill confirms fairly consistently across a wide range of percents)
I'll have to gather more data on Anther's and preferably another tournament; But I honestly find this method WAY less stressful than my past methods. And I did at least get it to work vs players like Logic, and Remzi when I got to play them in tournament. (though it didn't let me beat Remzi :<, and vs Logic I had the pikmin extending my fsmash to obfuscate the data)
Just an update on philosophy rather than strategy:
Taller characters with better hangs (I.e can't be ledge caped) seem to be the optimal candidates for the long-range fireball camping.
Due to being taller/bigger, FLUDD connects much more consistently. Making it far easier to keep them in the corner.
Secondly, they're FAR worse in the corner due to the aforementioned height. Meaning SH uair covers more options. (Can bair if they roll, uair again if they keep shielding, empty land grab/dtilt, it's good stuff)
This simply isn't as worth it vs short characters, who are harder to fludd, HAVE to jump into SH uair, generally have better recoveries, and in general just have more options which makes it less reliable to pin them in the corner.
It definitely feels optimal vs tallies. Like, it pretty much forces them into terrible situations all around. But I think I'll need to devise a new flowchart for shorts. Considering they CAN be ledge caped, PLUS it more consistently covers their rising options due to their traditionally shorter range, I think there may be something there.
Currently, I'm trying to apply a similar theory to how Luigi covers ledge. Dair > Fair/Nair. Or In mario's case, Dair > Cape/Nair. While the reward/frame data isn't quite the same, Mario covers more options since Cape can hit ledge.
My main concern is ledge roll. I do NOT like having to bait it specifically, especially since usmash is so much weaker now. Leaving it a very appealing option until very high percent.
Edit: NOPE
back towards SH fireball trap. I don't even know anymore, everything I try just seems such high commitment and low reward/consistency.
Long range/ledge fireball definitely forces options out of the opponent, but only slightly. Even with the low vulnerability scenario (which isn't consistent vs many characters, especially if people are aware of it and elongate their snap) it isn't much of a deterrent. It's nice for forcing ledge campers onstage but mario just isn't fast enough to pressure the options they do take from that range. At least not until SUPER high percent with bair kills, but you're gonna stale it like crazy using it as your primary coverage too.
And short hop off suffers from fireball just being a ****ty ****ing projectile that tons of moves either straight beat, or hitbox contort around to disallow decent follow-ups. Not to mention the inconsistency of it actually covering ledge jump since it's a teeny tiny hitbox.
Okay, new approach. Based on sh nair + super trump punch.
When drifting off with SH nair, the soft hit can true combo into the hard hit (or bair if facing away)
Originally, I found this highly committal since it demanded mario be drifting offstage. However, with the new changes to how lips works in ultimate, this lets it flow beautifully into STP.
Normally, if you were to try to SH nair someone and they took no option, THEN tried to trump them, you'd have no guaranteed follow-up since you waited too long. However, with STP, it pops them up for true combos.
Now, you can delay the nair and it can cover standard at times too. But then it's more difficult to STP, and rising SH nair can catch early rolls sometimes too. (Plus I think the extra time can mess up our ability to still cover other options)
FURTHERMORE, going for STP rather than a regular trump is much more universally rewarding. Due to how it pops people up, it can actually kill as early as 60% with a uair > dair/sjp string.
Here is a list of interactions from STP vs every single character
Now, this seems fairly reliable. However, there's a few issues.
Soft Nair > Hard nair kills... Okay. Around 120%~ (No rage)
Soft Nair > Bair kills VERY well. As early as 80%!
However, there's a lot of issues with reverse nair.
-Nair has less frontal range from behind. Also seems more likely to hit them into the stage.
-The need to rar it makes it slower, and downright impossible oos. Hurting the initial option select a LOT.
-More difficult(if not impossible?) to get the hitbox on STP.
I should note, this trap was present in smash 4. However, stages had different lips which greatly effected what STP did, even battlefield did totally different things depending on left/right. Often allowing no follow-ups. Secondly, due to the slower launch speed, it was more feasible to DI the nair out and deny hard nair. And soft nair had more knockback, hard nair had less. Making this only work at very magical percents vs very specific characters.
I think this is a MUCH more consistent killing coverage than Fireballs > FLUDD.
So I'm thinking SH fireballs/FLUDD option select for low/mid percents where the Regrab > Fsmash set-up is far more rewarding, plus just intercepting people's returns with uair is also very rewarding. And these are also lower commitment, though it's also important to remember nair > nair IS death vs a lot of the poorer recoveries. So going for this sooner is probably fine too.
Ideally, I'm thinking the ideal starting point for applying this is facing the ledge, in shield, just far enough to the lip that oos fsmash would hit.
This lets you threaten hang with oos fsmash, react to roll with usmash, grab standard, cover jump with SH nair, and shield > usmash/dsmash rising options.
One issue though, is grabbing standard isn't really death. At least, not unless we find some dthrow/uthrow kill confirm. I guess at SUPER high percent, you can actually turn away and just try bairing everything/bthrowing roll?
You could also try oos dsmash. It's frame 10~ which hardly makes it guaranteed, buuut it does cover roll. And may be safe on shield at this spacing, depending on the character? (Spot dodge is an issue though)
Maybe preemptive dsmash charge too? But idk, still seems iffy due to the lack of lingering.
======Ledge Cape Applications=======
Kinda disappointed with this first part.
Since cape can't hit all characters on the ledge while grounded, I looked into flowcharts to get mario in position to cape people from behind. (FH fireball, SH dair, etc) While it TECHNICALLY works. You can simply hold down and still get follow-ups, but it seems like ONLY on characters you can already ledge cape. Others simply don't get pulled towards mario. You can get a nair stage spike, but it can be teched and doesn't even spike at a great angle. (Ganon can still recover)
Real shame, since it covers standard and jump too. Seems like mario just isn't supposed to ledge cape those characters.
Due to that, definitely seems like nair > stp is far more optimal there.
But, I also believe SH Dair/Bair > Cape could be a good option select vs the characters it CAN hit on the ledge. Taking advantage of Dair's lack of endlag lets us initiate cape while still airborne, giving it some precious extra frames. It actually comes out the same frame as just landing with dtilt. I believe since it avoids the 3 frame landing lag, plus getting 3 frames of startup in the air.
And Dair probably kill confirms just about as well as Nair, if not better vs a lot of the shorts you'd wanna do this too. To be honest, I'm finding even when Nair > Nair doesn't outright kill, MANY characters simply can't get back. (Especially when factoring pressure from fludd, fireballs, and other means)
SH Dair > SJP isn't true, but it's safeish over the lip. Plus you can bait airdodges for fair/dair.
Just make sure you don't drift too far to the lip to get them knocked inward.
At higher percent, I think Bair > Cape is probably more optimal.
========Jan 6: SH Dair > Cape Update========
I think I may have overvalued the ability to initiate cape before dair ends.
While it does have several active frames, they're so teeny tiny that they become telegraphed, not to mention they have poor priority, precise spacing, little reward, and big gaps in it's hitboxes.
I think uair/bair are better initiators. Uair for lower percent, bair when it starts killing. More range, reward, and better option selects.
Though I think Nair > STP might still be the better option, hard to say which method deals with rising options better. Will likely need a partner to test with me.
==========Jan 7: Long-range Fireball/SH Fireball Update=========
Sliding Ftilt adds a new tool to consider for both of these that I had not yet reviewed until I switched and got comfortable with tilt stick.
On reaction vs standard get-up, and hang, it threatens a more relevant hitbox than dash attack at this range. Getting a hitbox there much faster, with less commitment. (Though it doesn't cover spotdodge as well)
Secondly, the optimal range for hitting hanging opponents with grounded fireball, is also optimal range for the short hop fireball ledge trap.
That said, I think this trap is only really worth it against characters with better recoveries. Those that can risk trading with SH nair at the cost of their double jump. These characters also tend to be those we can downsmash, rather than needing fsmash. So FLUDD regrabs can be better punished on reaction.
Not to mention, simply taking fireballs hurts the Chus a lot more than someone like DK.
SH Fireball > Ftilt is more reliable, and safe than SH fireball > Dtilt/Dsmash, but of course less rewarding. Hard to gauge which balances out better currently, but ftilt is a good default.
The issue with dtilt is, fireball pushes back. Often leading to tipper dtilt, which doesn't combo very well. So it might only be worth it to go for dsmash, unless it doesn't cover their hang. But there's also the commitment level to consider.
==========Bthrow Stuff========
Furthermore, due to the fact we're setting up for long-range fireball, which has a highish rate of success for connecting at least, I wonder if bthrow is often the better throw? On average, it does 3.6% more than Fthrow. The greater knockback helps ensure they still grab ledge, or get landing trapped with fireballs/fludd.
More damage means a lot more vs these characters, especially if you factor in fireball. And bthrow doesn't stale that hard (if you consider the extra percent compared to the other throws) Killing only 4.2% Later when staled per throw. (I.e, it's only really a .6% penalty. Less if you manage to get those fireballs and landing traps)
Just a slight possibly optimization vs the characters you'd long-range trap anyhow.
=============Jan7th Update: I think I'm close=================
Okay I think I've got it down.
Nair > STP vs poor recoveries (whom can die if they trade with nair while using a rising option.)
That's really the only way nair becomes worth it, because it loses/trades with a lot of moves. And on better recoveries/disjoints, the reliability/reward factor just isn't there.
Furthermore, Soft Nair > Hard nair isn't often true. It's fast enough to catch jumps, but not DI out + Disjoints. So again, more incentive to only use it worth poor recoveries. (especially since that terribly low angle is essentially death much sooner than it actually kills, too)
This positioning also flows well into edgeguarding them if needed.
And then Fireball/FLUDD Ledge Trapping everyone else.
The risk, reward, and reliability of this trap just gets better and better. Especially now that I properly considered Bthrow into the equation.
Bthrow > Fireball isn't true, but it demands either DI out, or Jump to avoid. (FLUDD covers both) And Bthrow seriously has tremendous positioning, damage, and consistent reward.
(With Pummels, Bthrow does the same damage as uthrow > uair. With fireball, it does even more!)
FLUDD just pushes so amazingly hard at higher percents, that it can essentially guarantee a regrab or otherwise risky positioning. I was just so focused on killing at 40-50% I forgot that it simply becomes more reliable at high percents. To the point it even works on reaction (to an extent, if they commit to jumping it you have to intercept)
Now, here are the options to take to kill every option:
Jump/rising: FLUDD preemptively. Again, it isn't perfect. But it's more reliable, consistent, and safe than most of our options.
Roll: Simply wait, downsmash/cape. This also lets you cover jump/rising on reaction (though with less reward)
Standard: SH fireball preemptively, prepare to dsmash/dtilt. You can also cancel FLUDD charge with roll preemptively for bair/usmash when those start killing. (I prefer bair since it covers delayed jump too)
*Dash dsmash can also cover standard and roll.
You may notice, there's no direct way to punish hang with death. And that's because it's just such a huge commitment trying, I don't think it's worth going far unless you need to make a comeback.
Even when these other methods fail, you still retain stage control and pressure. And if they hang, you at least get free damage with fireball. (maybe multiples depending on how quick they can snap) And can easily reset with FLUDD.
All that damage, combined with bthrow's can really add up quick. And with our uair fresh, it can kill people jumping in after a FLUDD (since it's stronger, they're higher, etc) Also better positioning for dair.
It's not flashy, but it's consistent. And I'm sure it can still be optimized further.
In fact, due to the damage output (and the fact it becomes less worth hitting with fireballs after a certain point) There's probably another, simpler trap.
Once Bthrow starts killing from the ledge roll point, I think bair is probably the main tool to utilize. Though short hop, full hop, delayed? Not currently sure.
I'm thinking mario positioned close enough to the lip that turnaround fsmash will connect, and possibly full hopping, but not bairing. Simply flow charting from that full hop. (Bair ledge jump on reaction, fast fall bair standard, grab ledge roll)
This is good positioning for bairing rising options too, but feels like it needs to be on reaction. And fsmash would be what you threaten to make them take their options in a timely manner. (But trump might work too?)
============January 9th Update===========
Starting not to like Nair > STP as a primary option compared to the fireball ledge trapping. It has more risk, and less consistent reward. (They either die/get put in a very bad spot, or regain stage control)
I honestly believe the fireball ledge trapping is now universal, reliable, and consistent. Though it does change, depending on percent.
Until the percent with bair starts killing by the ledge. (Jump, or standard) You want to mostly just deter ledge hang and keep them in the corner.
FLUDDing standard, and roll do give them invincibility back when they regrab, BUT it also at least sets them up for more fireball harassment. (Helping get them to said bair kill range)
FLUDDing jump of course, even on reaction, sets up potent trapping scenarios. Demanding the DI in for harder punishes, or get FLUDDed out for a regrab punish.
One important thing I've noted though, is that once players are aware of this trap, they mix up their landing/regrab very well. So definitely be prepared for just a dash attack. It consistently covers both an early landing, and a regrab. And often denies them their jump back (if it was a 2-frame) So it's still decent reward.
If they stay clear out of range for dash attack, that makes it more feasible to fsmash/dsmash/cape. (depending on the character)
Also, simply intercepting people with upairs is EXTREMELY potent at these lower percents. Making it yet more rewarding.
I've pretty mostly given up on SH fireball traps I think. They're still too committal for that low reliability. It really only has applications with dsmash, since you can also opt to simply charge it to still cover roll/standard. Dtilt's lack of versatility, coverage, and reward leaves it pretty unappealing now.
(And also, it true combos into dsmash if it hits people WHILE hanging, OR jumping. But only vs VERY high hang chars. Like mario himself. And this is the only way I think the reliability/risk/reward is there)
========
So, at these lower percents, you generally want to take one of three options: All from the starting position. (Just behind the ledge roll spawn, where grounded fireballs hit hanging opponents)
(NOTE: This coverage flowchart is for DAMAGE RACKING ONLY. And does not translate into stocks very well)
1: FLUDD Charge/Release: This lets you cover pretty much every non-hang option. Though only netting reward beyond positioning vs Ledge Jump/Rising options. (and maybe fireballs)
*Canceling into SH fireball > dtilt to cover standard/jump could also be considered, though I don't use it anymore. The risk/reward/reliability only becomes notable if you're behind, maybe. (If it works, you can get 30%+ or stock. But this method much more reliably gets 15-20%+ and stock sometimes too)
2: Wait/FLUDD: This is largely for standard, roll, and hang. Roll, you can punish on reaction. Standard, you mix up between dash attack, dash grab, and sh uair.
HOWEVER, if you grab, do backthrow. It does more damage, sets up better situations, and considering Dash Attack and Backthrow have the same angles, I suspect this is intended coverage.
*Do note, dash attack crosses up shield at this range. So it's fairly safe. Covers spotdodge.
*Default to fireball after dash attack/bthrow. If they consistently take options avoiding the fireballs, you can punish those.
*Uair covers jump, roll (with the lack of endlag you can just bair) and spot dodge a little too. Probably the preferred option vs tallies who it covers while grounded, too.
3: Fireball/Dash Attack
*Dash attack only vs characters hard to hit with fireballs on ledge. May need a new flowchart for them.
Of course, we still have to deter hanging. But be smart with it. Even though it'll connect with buffered rolls, it's often unsafe on hit.
Generally, you only want to ALWAYS throw one fireball to try 2-framing them with. Then, mixing up between the other options, or one more fireball. You should NEVER go for three fireballs unless one has already connected. As this opens you up for being punished by ledge roll. (Or even Flip Kick, bouncing fish, etc)
====
Now, these options CAN lead to stocks. Especially if they take options to avoid the fireballs. But the primary goal here is simply damaging them, and preparing them for our next trap... Which is... In the works?
I'm still working on the traps optimal for killing percent, but it's definitely going to require reads rather than reactions like these. Still, I think I'm close.
The main things to consider are:
Soft Nair > Hard Nair
Dash Attack > Fireball > Nair (Not true after dash attack, but a decent frame trap, makes going for dash attack at higher percents worth it. Though only with the strong hit)
Dash Charge Fsmash for standard/roll (The lower profile disallows ledge jump aerials to hit mario immediately, and charged, spaced dsmash is safe on shield. So low risk)
I also think I'll need two more flowcharts:
One for when there's little or ambiguous timing for positioning. (Like say, after simply FLUDDing someone from neutral)
And when there's ample time, like say to position mario facing away from ledge at a certain spot.
=========January 10th:=========
Backtacking to the 'low vulnerability' scenarios, I think the optimal death percent flowchart and the low vulnerability flowchart could actually have a lot of overlap.
The higher percent, the less vulnerability. So it becomes even more reliable when they've also been hit recently by a weak hit.
And they both involve mario dashing to the ledge from the optimal 2-framing position.
Now, Dash Instant Release Fsmash covers hang, jump okayish, and SOMEwhat covers rising. But not consistently. (Doesn't linger enough to account for them dropping, jumping, spacing, etc)
The risk/reward at higher percents just doesn't feel like it's there. If they take any option other than simply hang, you're likely to lose control.
Then, charging fsmash further into the stage to react to standard, get-up attack, and rising options could also work. But this extra charge leaves you more vulnerable to them reacting and rolling/jumping and punishing. (Though the strength of the punish can be mitigated by only charging for 1/3rd a second, the average reaction + response time)
There's also the issue of low commitment, high range rising options like Samus Zair, Villager Fair, Rob Gyro, etc. (Though dash cape covers the latter two, along with their hangs, unsure about Samus Zair tho)
It does, theoretically, cover everything though. The biggest concern is ledge roll when you go for fsmash. I'm worried this could lead to turnarounds. But then again, some characters would be scarier with that than others, so it could also be matchup specific.
Downsmash is definitely fairly low commitment, risking only taking damage from landing/rising aerials or get-up attacks mostly.
Now, some might argue 'just dash attack' and while it's less likely to get you killed, it's even less likely to net a kill. And on failure, it opens mario up for even harder ledge punishes since he's right on the lip after.
Theoretically though, it IS a 1/3 shot at killing. And at higher percents, you can just SH/FH Bair preemptively vs ledge jump, and still pressure standard. (Can even fade behind them with a falling bair to get behind them for a bthrow!)
I'm thinking Fsmash should be saved for comebacks, or taking advantage of an opponent who has shown they hug the ledge. Instead, generally only working downsmash into the damage racking frame-trap for kills.
And then bair at higher percents.
It's not SUPER reliable, but it does flow well into covering their other options. Especially at higher percents.
Not sure if I want FH Bair, SH Bair, or still try the SH Nair > STP trap.
SH bair has the momentum boost, but FH doesn't really need it since it's hitting higher and more inward stage. FH can also trade, or even lose to ledge jump aerials. (usually trade though, which is worth at this percent) BUT, it leaves mario safer from rising options they may have took at that time, or even just ledge attack. He's also not as close to the lip, giving up less stage control on failure.
SH bair can't lose to ledge jump rising aerials, but it does put Mario's hurtbox pretty far over the lip. And generally not good position to cover roll.
SH Nair > STP covers instant ledge jump, and continued hang. But obviously they can react to the nair and know STP is coming if we go for that every time, so we need to feint it somehow.
FH RAR Nair also has some applications. Since it kills earlier with bair, AND true combos far more reliably. But SH Rar nair can't STP afterwards reliably. So FH so you can go less far offstage seems optimal. I also worry about nairs priority, but being a lingering frame 3, I'd imagine they would have to buffer an option to beat it. (Can't just mash airdodge like smash 4)
So mixing up between the two nairs might be the ticket. One which punishes hanging, the other which still lets us pressure the other options they take. (can fall with cape/bair vs standard/roll)
But then, both option becomes telegraphed so a wary opponent can respond appropriately.
Now, we COULD still fludd ledge jump, but out of dash to properly feint our other out of dash options. But i dunno, while FLUDD is decent positioning vs ledge jump, AND does still essentially beat rising options it's kinda hard to kill a lot of characters. You essentially need to make one read, so you have the opportunity to make another read to get the kill. (Not including the initial read to get them on the ledge)
It's not bad, but I don't think it's our optimal ledge jump punish. (rising punish? possibly)
========Low Vulnerability/Fireball 2-frame trap Update========
May be something here?
Okay, so if you manage to 2-frame someone with long-range fireball, dash attack covers three options:
1: They immediately mashed upb, and overshot the ledge due to the timer disabling sweetspots.
2: They upb'd and snapped ledge SO quick that they have so little invincibility that dash attack's lingering frames will hit them, AND buffered ledge drops/jumps.
3: They delayed their upb, making it easier to 2-frame with dash attack. Thus likely setting up an edgeguard opportunity since they have no jump. (Ideal fludd angle)
(And FLUDD covers the third option of them recovering high. Though dash attack can cover this too?)
Not sure if it's worth going for on it's own, but it may be a mixup? Since they need to buffer roll/standard so soon, dash attack could should leave you able to punish or pressure these options well.
But, you could also just fsmash as I said before. It's less reliable, but more rewarding. And perhaps even less risky? Or maybe more like equally.
Not sure, but I do think it could be worth it vs crappy recoveries. Especially since it's more likely to hit them with ledge fireball to begin with. Not to mention, even if they have their jump, it's a decent enough scenario.
Death if you get their 2-frame, more edgeguarding opportunities on failure. Not bad.
Cape, and downsmash are also options vs characters they can hit on ledge. Downsmash covers roll additionally, but cape has less endlag and kills sooner. (or combos if it doesn't kill)
I'm still not crazy about dash attack in general due to the generally low reward vs hang, BUT it does have good reward for catching 2-frames.
====================Jan 11th Update: Optimal Ledge Jump Punishes at kill percent=============
Not really liking SH Nair > STP anymore. At least at kill percent vs most characters. It's still highly committal to just cover ledge jump/hang with threat of death. It seems to lose to a lot of rising options since you're generally getting the tiny, weak hitbox out in that area. (And rising options become more appealing to opponents at high percent since they have to take risks then)
And of course, at kill percent while it CAN hit roll/standard, it's not killing.
I think this option is better used at mid percent vs poor recovery characters. STP sets up for potent combos (it's essentially a platform conversion) and hard nair sets up for great edgeguards when it covers jump/roll. So it's more of a medium risk/medium reward type mixup here at least.
I'm definitely liking Dashing RAR FH Nair > Bair for ledge jump. Due to the high, it leaves mario in a safe position to avoid rising options, and often simply bair them right after. AND can bair get-up attack too.
Covered with downsmash for standard/roll, and shield for roll/rising options, it covers all the standard options within a certain timeframe.
Hang I think is just best deterred by fireball unless you NEED to the kill ASAP. In which case, dash fsmash/cape.
But by defaulting to fireball, you consistently, and safely rack their damage up to the point bair/bthrow kills reliably in the corner/neutral. And bair is an option you can use on reaction when they finally HAVE to make their return.
==========Dsmash vs Tether Update=========
Do NOT try dsmashing these. Especially those with kill throws like Tink.
Honestly not sure what to do. Maybe crouching preemptively, and downtilting? It still combos into bair to kill around the same percents as dsmash.
The crouching still lets us avoid a lot of aggressive jump/rising options. And we can still shield to cover get-up attack/aggressive rising option, MAYBE roll with oos usmash but sometimes the spacings don't line up.
The reason this works vs tethers is because generally, we need to be REALLY close to avoid tipper dtilt which doesn't combo. And vs most characters, that's shieldgrab range.
Still not 100% on it, but it should be serviceable for now.
=============Ledge Jump Kill Percent Coverage Update==============
Yea. FH RAR Nair > Bair just isn't working. Takes too long, is a high commitment, and if they don't jump, it leaves mario in a TERRIBLE position. (Where ledge roll, standard, AND rising options can punish him on reaction)
SH Nair > STP, while not a SUPER reliable kill confirm, is reliable coverage. Technically covering EVERY option(not directly get-up attack, but it lets you avoid the hit to punish), though at different times. The fact it covers roll on start-up helps prevent the opponent gaining too much advantage by rolling to avoid trump.
Can also help keep bair fresh to kill in neutral.
But at very high percent, I like just spamming bair. You can even drift back to cover roll usually. I'm thinking one should save this tactic for one it kills from the ledge roll point. (Since it also kills dash ins from standard, or aggressive rising option landings, etc)
=================Dash Attack Optimization===========
Still don't like dash attack, but I did discover a way to make it better.
Normally, when we dash attack someone and it either hits them on ledge, or their ledge jump, they get hit at a lower angle. So low, it's difficult for mario to get down there in time.
But due to the changes with bair, by pivot bairing preemptively, mario goes out VERY far VERY fast, already turned around. Letting him more effectively cover their options.
===================Jan 13th: Back to Fsmash?========
In my original opening post, I stated my ledge coverage would be fsmash based. Since then, I've deviated a lot. Into more consistent advantage generating traps. But now, I think I've found where to implement fsmash into my current flowchart.
So, currently we operate largely with mario spaced so grounded fireballs can 2-frame, and hit hanging opponents.
Then, FLUDDing for ledge jump, and simply corner pressuring standard get-up. Since it's the only option they can take.
However, at kill percent, these don't progress our win condition very well.
So, we need to implement an option select out of dash from this position.
Among those, is dash double pivot fsmash. Which, due to it's range, actually has comparable execution speed to dash attack, cape, and downsmash even. (though is a slightly bigger commitment)
I'm going to go over our out of dash option selects:
Double Pivot Fsmash: Covers hang very well, rising options well, ledge jump okay.
Double Pivot Charged Fsmash(spaced further in, not to hit ledge): Covers get-up attack very well, standard well, rising options okay, ledge jump somewhat. (when angled up)
Dsmash: Covers roll well, standard and rising options okay.
RAR SH Bair: Covers jump very well, rising well, standard and roll okay.
Pivot Upsmash: Covers jump very well, rising options okay(depends on character). Good on-failure positioning.
SH Nair > STP/Nair: Covers ledge jump and roll well, hang okay(telegraphed), rising okay (depends on character) Will need to mix up drift in and out to be less telegraphed.
Shield: Covers roll and get-up attack well, rising options okay, standard and jump somewhat
Some potential options:
SHFF Fair: Due to the range, momentum burst, and hurtbox contortion, it actually may have some application. When fast falled, it has comparable commitment to a yoshi fair. (and combos better)
However, unlike Yoshi Fair, it only covers ledge jump, and rising options. And generally, it only properly spikes said rising options. Vs jump, it spikes them onstage 9 times out of 10. (though it can lead to combos)
Could be something here vs rising options, or for lower percents before usmash becomes more viable.
================Range Optimization===============
Originally, I was drawn to the idea of covering hang with grounded fireballs. However, I'm finding this range to be... Suboptimal for covering ledge jump with FLUDD. Lower charges push worse from this range, and mario's in overall worse positioning to hit people before they use their DJ (at which point that have too many options to set stuff up reliably)
So, instead of aiming for 2-framing, simply aiming for offstage harassment by placing mario JUST in front of the ledge roll point, so that a FLUDD read doesn't spell death if they roll. For grounded fireballs to hit ALL opponents on the ledge, mario has to spaced further back. But at this range, FH fireballs can cover it if needed. (And may have true combos into nair/cape/fair)
SH Fireball traps work more consistently at this range, too. Though I'm still a bit iffy on what to do vs hanging opponents which dtilt doesn't confirm well on. Maybe just low-angle ftilt?
=================New new killing coverage=========
After some valuable human testing, I came to the conclusion that FLUDDing ledge jumps at very high kill percent, while beneficial, does not greatly progress our gamestate. We generally want to STOP as soon as backthrow would kill someone from the ledge roll point. There's simply little point in damage racking beyond that point.
At low percent it's GREAT since intercepting landings with uair leads to huge damage, even stocks at magic percents with platforms. And at high(but not very high percent) single FH Uair can lead to dair/fair/sjp for kills. But at ledge bthrow kill percents, it leads to nothing.
By charging FLUDD AWAY from the ledge, we can bair ledge jump/standard and bthrow roll.
Furthermore, using the momentum boost from bair, we can also STP. Effectively covering ALL options with threat of death.
I think Bair > STP is better than Nair > STP due to the better option select and feinting ability.
With fully charged FLUDD, options like trumping, rolling to ledge for bthrow, etc become a lot less risky since it helps guarantee stage control on failure.
I also like that Fully charge FLUDD can punish a very dedicated ledge double jump into the stage. You COULD use uncharged, but fully charged is faster, more reliable, and easy enough to charge at high percent.
FLUDD takes a very different role at these higher percents, but very valuable.
It also just has a good flowchart. Able to cancel into bair, which has it's own flowchart.
Now, you COULD go for it before bthrow kills and just when STP > Bair kills, but the issue with that is the initial positioning lends itself a lot to staling bair on ledge jumps/standards/rolls which. And bair stales FAST on shields. So while it can be an option, consistency-wise I think just working SH Fireball > Dsmash into your damage-racking gameplan is more optimal. Yes, Mario will be killing later generally, but it's not like he's non-threatening until then.
I'll have to work on both FLUDD, and SH Bair flowcharts. But the theory seems solid.
======Nah, back to FLUDD/Fireballs, even at very high percent=======
The coverage just... Isn't there. It's too hard to force options out of people in a timely enough manner for the 2-frames that backair kills with to cover efficiently.
Now, after CAREFULLY reviewing SH Fireball > Dsmash, Grounded Fireball's 2-framing range, and FH Fireball's range, I really think this is intended coverage.
While you CAN be initially far enough on the lip for SH Fireball > Dsmash to work, while still being able to usmash ledge roll, AND being in a better position to punish FLUDDed ledge jumps... It's not the ideal positioning, putting less lingering hitboxes in the standard get-up spot. Plus it opens us up more to getting crossed up by a ledge jump.
So again, JUST behind the ledge roll. However, at kill percent, I think FH fireballing ledge jump/hang is more optimal.
No, there's no real kill confirms off this. (Except nair at very high percent)
But at this positioning, it covers both Ledge jump, rising options, AND hang.
Vs a rising option that used a jump, it's actually pretty potent since FH fireball > Nair WOULD Kill most characters at that point. And even if you didn't have that positioning, with no jump it'd be easier to time the 2-frame with dash attack to get them offstage with no jump for a VERY reliable edgeguard. (Especially since you saved the FLUDD charge with fireball)
However, vs ledge jump and hang, all it does is reset the situation... But slightly better, with less invincibility the ability to be RIGHT on the lip by drifting after the FH fireball. Something 2-framing with grounded fireballs doesn't allow.
(You COULD try 2-framing with FH fireballs, but grounded fireballs deter high recoveries better. Someone could jump over the fireball and hit mario while in endlag. Pretty easily actually)
This of course is only workable at high percents since low-mid percent, they have more invincibility. (Plus just FLUDDing their jump and intercepting with uair/grabs/etc is much more rewarding)
Dtilt covers ledge jump, hang, and standard at this time. (Though is hard to kill confirm with vs tallies)
Fsmash covers jump/hang pretty well, especially since you often gotta wait with dtilt anyway.
Shield covers roll/get-up attack/rising options(and high recoveries)
I think this is the proper course for the future. Though I still need to optimize our low vulnerability punishes vs tallies. I'm really iffy on fsmash. I don't like the level of commitment.
It's also kind of annoying since a LOT of players don't know how little invincibility they have, but others do. Making me wanna fsmash a lot, then getting get-up attacked.
But idk, considering FH fireball covers hang, jump, AND rising options, I feel like we could get a lot of chances.
So it's almost like a 50/50.
If they get-up attack/standard and we did SH fireball, they die to dsmash.
Then, if they hang, jump, or rise and we did FH fireball, they get set-up for a new branch of kill options.
(And if they roll, we can punish on reaction with either SH/FH. Though often not with death, but generally enough to at least force them to the other ledge.)
There's also the fact FH fireball has it's own on-reaction punishes to standard/get-upattack/roll with falling cape. Though they don't feel reliable enough to try for on their own, they do work and are fairly safe. (Though vs roll, I think bair/grab will generally be better. Often cape's just a little too slow. The reason it's nice vs standard though is even if you're too late, it's safe on shield and punishes them for buffering rolls/jabs/etc)
================Bluh=================
Nah, FH fireball to cover jump/hang just isn't worth it. Even without knowing about the timer, people will mix up their regrabs to get their timers higher. Furthermore, the spacing lets a LOT of rising options beat out both fireball and hit mario. This is contrast to SH fireball, which is given more time to travel away from mario. Letting it far more effectively protect him.
I think I'm defaulting back to long-range fireball traps for low-mid percents. Not sure about high percent. Looking into bair mix-ups with the new momentum burst.
We might actually have to start trumping.
One thing I like about Bairing to get behind standard get-up vs rolling, is you can more reliably get into position where SH nair actually hits back for bair.
=================Dash Attack Centric Theory=============
Probably not much here, but this theory is based largely on the fact that Dash Attack > Fully Charged FLUDD consistently places opponents near the top corner blastzone. Where Uair/Dair/SJP all kill fairly reliable.
So, instead of using FLUDD to cover the ledge get-ups, it's simply used as a tool to make dash attack more potent. Combined with Fireball > Nair/Fair.
Dash covers jump/hang, and SOMETIMES rising options.
Dash Shield (To feint the dash attack) Covers get-up attack, roll, and rising options. (And still lets us pressure jump/standard)
*Dash off STP also covers hang and delayed rising options.
I'm pretty iffy on this, buuut it is the most consistent so far. At least at high percent.
At lower percents though, I'm liking just fsmash centric.
Update: Actually, I'm wondering if aiming to dash attack for the 2-frame is more optimal, then flowcharting from there.
Usmash covers ledge jump and roll from this position (and certain rising options)
Shield > usmash covers standard, get-up attack, and most rising options.
And STP covers hang, and delayed rising options.
Gonna have to see who is worth trying to 2-frame. Obviously, characters with hitboxes aren't worth attempting this on. But we can fsmash those, so there may be another flowchart from there.
==================Jan 22nd Update===============
Once again, we're back to long-range fireball coverage. However, we're no longer implementing FH fireballs to cover hang/jump. (except maybe as a rare mixup) And going back to cover hang with fireballs.
Dash attack is nice, and certainly generates reward in matchups where edgeguarding is feasible, but isn't widely applicable. Especially when the reward becomes less if they have their jump.
And FH fireball certainly covers FH/rising/hang, but the initial commitment, spacing, and timing to actually kill off it just don't line up to be very reliable.
After considering Mario's Boost grab, the range of double pivot fsmash, I think just going for grounded fireballs and going for an option select vs standard. On hit, on shield, it doesn't change.
At mid-high percent (before dsmash kills) this is more worth since Grab and Fsmash both yield great reward. You'll want to space the fsmash not to actually hit the character, but their potential movement option. (jumping/dashing in, jabbing or otherwise trying to stuff a grab)
Of course, at high percent when grab yields little reward, this is when you want to start implementing sh fireball, AND dash dsmash.
The potency of fludding ledge jump varies greatly character to character. Low air speed, floatiness, and character size make it more worth. Vs a lot of characters, it's neither feasible nor rewarding to FLUDD their ledge jumps on reaction.
Still not 100% sure on what to do. Possibly FH Fair, since if they're DIing/jumping in it's likely to connect, but it's still slow with low range... And doesn't actually kill confirm THAT well. It is nice when the sourspot catches their dj in though.
We could also dair at VERY high percent, but i'm not sure. Generally, you'd want to DJ for the extra height but the low priority leaves us prone to getting hit out of it, and with no DJ we're pretty free.
=====Jan 23rd Update: Seems like my original assumption was right====
While the long-range trap can certainly work on every character, it's effectiveness varies HEAVILY.
It's especially effective vs floaty characters since their longer air times let us both better FLUDD on reaction, but also after incorrectly guessing another option.
As well as characters with Low Airspeed, who get pushed harder by FLUDD due to the inability to generate much momentum to fight FLUDD with.
But fast fallers, high airspeed, characters with RELIABLE landing aerials like Link and Cloud Dair, or characters who can simply threaten/challenge a fireballing mario even while recovering (Yoshi, Duck Hunt, ZSS, etc) all make this trap less reliable, and rewarding.
It's still a good trap since it's almost ALWAYS applicable. Off stray hits, fludd charges from neutral, etc since the range is so forgiving.
But as a main option? Definitely not in all matchups. But vs say, Ness, Luigi, Dedede, etc. It has been VERY effective and reliable. Especially when you consider just FLUDDing their standard/roll can yield results via fireball 2-frames.
I also like it vs the superlight characters due to the reliable and safe damage it puts on.
I'll have to make a detailed list of characters to apply this on, as well as a new ledgeguarding flowchart for the other characters.
I suspect there to be a few more optimal ranges.
1: Mario positioned in front of the ledge roll point, so usmash will hit on reaction.
2: Mario positioned right in front of standard so he can grab standard/fsmash hang.
3: Mario positioned RIGHT on the lip so he can bthrow or trump.
I'll be looking into option selects and optimal applications next. But I think I've optimized the long-range trap as far as it'll go.
================New Mid-range Trap Theory==================
As previously stated, I've been looking into a flowchart with enables us to still pressure recoveries when it's feasible.
Often vs poorer recoveries, they recognize their weak ledge options and will fight to recover high. Forcing us to use our FLUDD charge to safely force a ledge grab. I'd rather accomplish that with positioning. Ideally a range where cancelling FLUDD with Fair would kill an opponent trying to recover high. (It can't do this from the long-range position)
This range is with mario facing the ledge, so he can usmash roll. And dsmash standard/roll.
Vs jump and rising options though, the issue is if you try to FLUDD these and guessed wrong while they rolled, you can be punished HARD. Death vs many many characters.
But, FLUDD is still our most reliable ledge jump/rising punish. So I'm thinking FH Down-angled FLUDD (similar to how lucarios cancel aura charge with FH aura sphere to get ledge jump)
The mobility lets us both drift behind ledge roll, or towards ledge jump to be in better position to punish said FLUDD'd opponent.
Still iffy on this option though. This places FLUDD's spurts into different positions, pushing less hard (but also more downward)
Plus, having to cancel FLUDD charge into a Jumping FLUDD shot slows it down a LOT. I'd say roughly frame 30~, more if not fully charged.
Which is actually similar frame to just shield drop walk fsmash. (Though less commitment obviously)
It's frustrating since it doesn't quite guarantee death, but it may be the best we got.
As for standard/roll, shield drop dsmash is frame 16~
Just shield covers get-up attack/roll and aggressive rising options.
As for hang, as stated before: Shield drop walk fsmash can work, and it's slow(30 frames) but still manages to cover buffered standard/jump so it could still be a real option.
Shield drop dash attack is about 17-20 frames. Much less reactable, but also less reward at higher percents.
Dair also seems good at lower percent as an alternative to FLUDD for covering ledge jump/standard. While a regrab fsmash could happen, players aware of it will simply take options which avoid it. (like airdodge into stage) making it only consistent convert into a stock at higher percents.
Dair also is less commitment and can yield much more reward at lower percents.
I am a little concerned about it's priority vs disjointed rising options, though. Might require mixing up with fsmash to deter this effectively.
Overall though, mid-range seems like the next most complete coverage. Capable of still threatening recoveries, and covering all ledge options.
Short-range (fsmash ledge range) can't punish roll on reaction well, and point blank ledge bthrow range even worse. These seem only optimal if this is your immediate positioning during an edgeguard/stray hit, or after a failed ledge coverage from the other positions. (Dair or dash attack)
==============Short-range Theory (2-framing range)=================
Reviewed this a bit more after seeing Zenyou LIBERALLY apply this theory. To mixed results.
This is a range with enables us to 2-frame with more rewarding options like fsmash, dtilt, cape, and ftilt. And THEN going for ledge coverage.
This seems most rewarding vs characters whom we can dtilt > bair from the ledge, characters with poor ability to regrab ledge, characters with slower, telegraphed recoveries against whom it's easier to time our 2-frame punish vs, or those which lack notable disjoints to beat nair out while rising. As while nair doesn't have any direct confirms, it does create a palpable 2-framing situation in many matchups. And covers ledge options VERY well.
Obviously, vs Marth, Mario, Ryu, etc. Anyone who puts hitboxes out at this range, it isn't optimal. (Though fsmash is still an option, perhaps)
I'm thinking Dair vs characters we can't easily 2-frame, Nair vs those we can. Though juggling potential vs not is also an option.
Nair is MUCH More reliable at connecting due to it's more lingering properties and bigger consistent hitbox. But really fails to yield much of anything vs characters who can mix up their regrab timings, like Rob, Bayo, etc.
I also don't like going for Nair > Nair anymore. It's just too much commitment. Even with the trumping potential.
I'm also not crazy about this range vs very short characters(Chus, kirby, etc), since nair/dair don't hit their standards very well. Which sucks since dtilt confirms best on them.
As for the optimal 2-frame punish, it's difficult to determine.
Preemptively charged dsmash is the quickest option at 3 frames. But also seems like the least reliable, due to the high hitbox straight disallowing it from hitting MANY characters hanging on the ledge, only 2 frames of linger, as well as a very strict spacing overall make it likely only optimal when the opponent is in a position above the ledge, when they could directionally airdodge onstage or just fall to snap. (Not rising up)
Dtilt is the next quickest at frame 6. And it actually can hit EVERYONE on the ledge; But again, the strict spacing makes it less reliable. Especially if you consider that while tipper dtilt hits everyone on ledge, it also combos the worst. And at that point, you might as well just go for dash attack since it lingers more and sends them more offstage with likely no jump. (Also frame 6, though requires dash start-up)
Cape doesn't have the same spacing issue. If it hits, it kill confirms based on character, not spacing.
But, that's the thing. It doesn't hit every character on the ledge. It's also frame 12. The same frame as fsmash when preemptively charged.
As such, Fsmash seems like the best option so far. It's slowest, but also has the biggest, most rewarding hitbox. Killing as early as 60%. Not to mention, the hurtbox shifting lets it favorably trade with Ledge hitbox recoveries like Marth, Mario, etc.
The real issue is the endlag. It's not absurd, but it is enough that if you fail to 2-frame and overshoot your timing enough, you can be punished. Making it iffy transitioning into ledge trapping after. So would absolutely need to be saved for slower recoveries, like Ness, Bowser, Link, etc.
Trying to fsmash say, Palutena, Sonic, or Mario himself makes it very easy to overcharge.
As such, I think the two best 2-frame options are clearly Fsmash for slower recoveries, and dash attack for the quicker ones.
Though the issue with dash attack is it puts mario further on the ledge, where his only option for punishing hang after is via trumping (or maybe walk back fsmash)
There's also the prospect of FH fireball, since it goes so far down. Buuuut you gotta be going offstage to combo into anything off it, so I dunno. Plus platforms mess it up.
Due to the reliability of dash attack, and the new change that 2-framing doesn't give back jumps, I'm going to look into a flowchart assuming Mario went for the 2-frame with it, so he's RIGHT on the ledge already.
==============Point Blank Range================
I'm actually liking this more than I thought I would, at least vs certain characters.
Seems like I was on the right track earlier with dair > cape, but the initial positioning and flowchart was wrong.
Within a fairly large timeframe, mario covers every STANDARD option. While drifting inward with Dair, mario gets into position to react to roll while still covering standard/jump. After which, mario may react with cape to punish standard/roll/get-up attack. Though the timing is strict, generally I think grab/ftilt will be more reliable.
Mario also gets in position to cover hang with fsmash/cape (I prefer fsmash since it covers multiple options with death, but it can also be up to 9 frames slower)
The main issues are:
-Dair does not true combo into anything. Characters with good landing options who are difficult to juggle make reward off dair here less palpable, and worth going for.
-Dair also has very little priority, especially beneath it, making rising disjoints largely invalidate it. Even certain command grabs can beat it, making the option select between shield/dair just straight lose.
-The only way to punish hang from the initial positioning is shield drop trump. Which takes 15+ frames, making it pretty reactable, at least with DI. (Though i guess you could drop shield earlier if you know they can't put a hitbox out with their recovery?)
(Could also go for the landing dair hitbox by fast falling, which COULD be worth vs the easy 2-frame chars)
Now, nair has more priority, but has less range and takes longer to end. Which means you just can't react to standard/roll/jump/hang as well. You COULD try for the reverse nair > bair combo. But Just usmash would be better at that point, usually due to being more reliable and less commitment. (reverse nair usually hits inward from the lip)
Speaking of usmash, it somewhat reliably covers rising hurtbox options, as long as they're not beneath mario.
Characters I'd recommend this vs:
-Snake
-Duck Hunt
-Fox? (Can't phase through shield anymore)
Characters I would NOT recommend vs:
-Yoshi
-Marth
-Mario
I'll work on optimizing it further, if possible. But it overall seems like a very simple concept.
I like it vs Snake/Duck hunt to deny both high recoveries with bair, and their covering fire projectiles from getting onstage.
Vs Fox, it denies him from phasing into the stage. And while he does have decent landing options, he's a fast faller so has good follow-ups off Dair.