A little perspective: If there is to be a no lynch on Day 1, I think it's stupid as hell to vote the inactives dead. Go on...
Why? Because besides having lives as a reason, some people are usually inactive because they don't have power roles nor are they part of the mafia. Therefore, I would assume that vanilla townies make up the majority of the inactives. Of course it's not 100%, but it's something to think about. What is it that they say about making an assumption? You're a ****? Something like that. Is that some "you have no life" theory I see? It might have been legit if you didn't try to convince me that spam_master has a life. Or tmw_redcell, a moderator. And here we see your first percentage figure -- "Of course, I could be completely wrong, so don't hold me accountable when we lynch an active vanilla."
If you're going to lynch anyone, lynch an active. I'd bet my life that the % chance of lynching a mafia day 1 goes up significantly by lynching an active player. Bet your life, huh? And what is this based on, again? Speculation?
With this logic, I've derived a list. I'll include myself just to be fair. I didnt include players who pretty much only posted joke posts and trash like that.
Lance87
Eor
Handorin
Tom
<3
Pikachunoob
Breakwing
Mediocre
Mr. Lombardi
I've come to the conclusion that if someone from this list is lynched, there's a 22.2% chance that it will be a mafia member. It's a hell of a lot better than a no lynch
You know, in the Decisive Games room, you can click on the number of total posts in a thread and it will give you them in sequential order. We don't need your coming in here and telling us who is active and who isn't. And I don't even want to know where you got a 22.2% figure, because you DON'T know anything unless you're mafia. Everything at this point is pure speculation. Speculation, ridiculous math, and a little Appeal to Probability.
As of right now, I vote: pikanoob because he's acting the weirdest. I'm leaning towards voting Handorin or <3 just from a gut feeling that could be totally off.