Mario's cape can only stall once, and can't exactly be "spammed" too well to prevent a projectile barrage from hurting him.
Three times actually until it becomes pretty pointless to try and stall, but by then its job is done. The opposition will have had to renew their invincibility frames and you can get in before they regrab the ledge.
When Mario's spamming his cape, the window of opportunity where a projectile can hit him is very small, since the reflecting properties last even after the cape has done the initial hit. Onstage, spamming the cape to prevent this is silly, because you're only protected from the projectiles; not normal attacks. If Olimar is throwing Pikmin and baiting me to cape so that he can use the ending lag to get close enough for a grab, he can. This isn't an option offstage since your opponent can't really run to you, they have to come out after you. Given that you've spaced correctly, you can see this coming and react in time.
Also, don't you have to face backwards to recover with Mario's FLUDD, which means you're not shooting at your opponent while you're recovering, basically making you a big target? O,o;
This is pretty situational since the distance often isn't worth the vertical height you're sacrificing, but it's generally used when you don't have your second jump and you've DI'd high. Mario's safer imo when his back is turned than when he's facing forward because of his reverse Uair and Bair. Cape still reflects projectiles as well, even while turned.
Still, most times it's better to use the Fludd to push them away.
Oh, and fireballs to protect your descent? They're really not that hard to get around when you're edgeguarding. <<
Not unless the Mario's dumb and doesn't follow behind his fireballs correctly. Either way...if Ike or Marth want to jump up and Fair me, they have to go through the fireballs. Also, if fireballs happen to hit an opponent on the ledge and you follow with an upB, you spike them.
Luc's sweetspot is insane, and if you're talking about FD, speed shouldn't matter when it comes to recovering with Lucario, since he can just go for the wall if they try to hog the ledge, and go for the ledge if they try to guard the wall. I haven't tested Mario's sweetspot, but I hear it's very good as well. I'm guessing they're about the same size for argument's sake.
Still, the speed is a factor. That's why Marths aren't edgehogged left and right. Marth's upB is so fast that it's hard to get to the edge quick enough. This isn't the case with Lucario because of the slow startup.
Well, first of all, there's simply drifting back to the stage, which Lucario can easily perform due to his floatiness. This is Lucario's main form of recovery.
Mario can do this nearly as well as Lucario. He just has to have the right DI on the attack that knocked him out there. It's not to the point where Mario wouldn't need DJ or upB, but Mario's pretty floaty himself. Even then, Mario can defend himself better than Lucario as he's floating with fireballs and Fludd.
Then, there's the double jump, which gives you more height and basically enhances his main form of recovery. Then, there's the use of aerials to aid in your recovery and thwart edgeguarders. This should be your main form of countering edgeguards.
Lucario's aerials are much better than Mario's for protecting recovery, that I'll give you. But for Mario, he doesn't need to wait for his opponent to get close for him to screw up edgeguarding attempts; he can start from the moment knocked offstage.
On the rare occasion that Lucario's aerials do not outprioritize his opponent's aerials with Fair or Dair, he may opt to use an airdodge instead, which Lucario can easily recover from due to his high second jump and incredible range on his Up B (should it be required).
I have a problem with this. Airdodging can easily backfire if your opponent predicts it and waits for it to end. With correct spacing, this could mean a gimp especially by Marth, ROB or MK.
To add on to the previous option, he could do a double jump and airdodge at the same time to both gain distance and thwart edgehoggers by getting past them.
Better, but still risky. Being forced to airdodge for your recovery is never good, even if used in this fashion. If the opponent predicts the airdodge or knows where you'll be when it's over, you're helpless to stop the attack.
On the rare occasions that your opponent becomes predictable with edgeguarding, Lucario can use Double Team to get a free ticket back to the stage with invincibility frames covering him. This shouldn't be used often and can be taken advantage of if predicted
Situational, just like Mario's reverse Fludd recovery. Still, this is a viable mixup for your recovery.
Aura Sphere can be performed to either knock them off the stage or get them to move. Either option frees up the ledge.
I agree.
If for some reason you can't get to safety directly (such as being stuck under Lylat, or a Mario waiting near the stage to cape you), you can just curve your movement around the obstacle and continue on your merry way.
Ledgehog stops this if I'm understanding you right.
Last of all, though, is Lucario's famous wall cling. If for some reason your opponent is both stupid enough to edgehog you
That wall isn't too safe if the opponent predicts your ES isn't going for the ledge. There aren't many choices of where to jump from that ledge, and you don't have invincibility frames iirc.
Stage spike. Marth and Mario's upB's stage spike. I was just saying that Marth sort of needs to aim his because not all of Marth's upB hits the same way. Mario's does.
See Lucario section where it says "Edgeguarding." :3
We're not like Mario. We aren't forced to use our ES every time we get knocked off. <<
Basically, the point I'm trying to make is if you predict Lucario's intentions during his recovery, there's a good chance you're going back offstage, losing a stock, or being set up for a gimp. If you know he wants to Airdodge, wait till it's over, attack early, or wait at the end of the airdodge to knock him back off.
If you know where his ES is going, react accordingly with a ledgehog or drop an aerial to the wall.
If you know which aerial he'll do during his descent, pick an attack to outprioritize it or throw out a projectile.
In Mario's case, His fireballs and Fludd can't really be counteracted since they're projectiles, capestall stops projectiles from gimping him and throws off opposition's timing/spacing, and his recovery is overall faster.
The only recovery tactics that Mario has that're victim to prediction are aerials and his upB. Aerials aren't really that widely used overall, and his upB stage spikes if their invincibility timing is off, which'll be pretty often because of the fireballs and capestall.
Lucario's "safe" recovery options are AS and Dair stall. AS because it's a projectile and is only unsafe vs characters with reflectors because of the trajectory. Dair stall because it's much like Mario's cape stall except it doesn't really degrade and protects from approaches from below, but you said this is pointless.
The distance that Lucario's recovery covers sort of makes up for this, but not really.
Lucario's recovery isn't god tier, though. It's only above average. However, it's STILL lightyears ahead of Mario's in terms of overall reliability.
Even if we find that Lucario's recovery, in fact, IS better, it's not a whole 2 tiers better.