Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Hadokeyblade]

Curious if we get 2nd punch-out rep do you think a 2nd punch-out stage would work as well?
Maybe the place where little man runs while doc is riding bicycle

We already have two Punch out reps, the other one is DK

 

[EarlTamm]

Do you guys think the release of Persona 3 Reload will influence potential future Persona content in Smash? I know Reload isn't on the Switch (Yet), but P5 itself wasn't on the Switch when Joker dropped, so I would not be shocked if P3 gets a bit more content in the next game.

 

[Perkilator]

Do you guys think the release of Persona 3 Reload will influence potential future Persona content in Smash? I know Reload isn't on the Switch (Yet), but P5 itself wasn't on the Switch when Joker dropped, so I would not be shocked if P3 gets a bit more content in the next game.

Maybe Aigis as a second Persona rep?

 

[EarlTamm]

Maybe Aigis as a second Persona rep?

If there was ever to be a second Persona rep that isn't the hypthertical protag of P6, it would probably be her. Plenty of moveset potential even before getting to Persona mechanics, The Answer making her a protag in her own right, and pretty much being the mascot of P3 as a whole.

At the very least, I would love to see some of the Reload music make it to the next game.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Do you guys think the release of Persona 3 Reload will influence potential future Persona content in Smash? I know Reload isn't on the Switch (Yet), but P5 itself wasn't on the Switch when Joker dropped, so I would not be shocked if P3 gets a bit more content in the next game.

I say it's very possible. Though, I wouldn't count a second rep. Maybe more music or something.

 

[Serix]

As much as I like Makoto, I agree Aigis would make for a more interesting rep. A Tartarus stage would be pretty sick though.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Do you guys think the release of Persona 3 Reload will influence potential future Persona content in Smash? I know Reload isn't on the Switch (Yet), but P5 itself wasn't on the Switch when Joker dropped, so I would not be shocked if P3 gets a bit more content in the next game.

Just the new battle themes im guessing.

 

[NintenRob]

Weird thought.


I have very little interest in a Sky Island stage from Tears of the Kingdom.

The Zelda series already has two stages that are essentially Sky Islands. Temple and Skyloft.

The Zelda series also already has a stage that takes place in that world, Great Plateau tower.


So I vote, if Tears of the Kingdom must get a stage, it gets one set in The Depths, (or at least transitions into the depths)

My votes being either Death Mountain (if we transition) or an Abandoned Mine.

 

[smashkirby]

This talk of First Parties has made me finally make my list of First Parties that I want the most (while trying and failing to limit Fire Emblem, Xenoblade and Pokemon)

I also spent too long thinking about this to the point where I absolutely forgot someone I would have really liked.

These are some pretty cool choices! I certainly wouldn't mind any of these folks joining Smash! Although, this list does make me remember that I have some others in mind in addition to these guys (like Itsuki, Mona, Rex, Bandana Dee, Andy and Dixie Kong).

By the way, THANK YOU for using Yuka's ACTUAL name rather than calling her 'Rhythm Girl'!

 

[superprincess]

Weird thought.


I have very little interest in a Sky Island stage from Tears of the Kingdom.

The Zelda series already has two stages that are essentially Sky Islands. Temple and Skyloft.

The Zelda series also already has a stage that takes place in that world, Great Plateau tower.


So I vote, if Tears of the Kingdom must get a stage, it gets one set in The Depths, (or at least transitions into the depths)

My votes being either Death Mountain (if we transition) or an Abandoned Mine.

Smash tends to use locations that are either heavily marketed or early on in the game (sometimes both, as those two go hand in hand) so I don't see the depths making it in.

And that's a good thing to me tbh. Nothing worse than when a game restricts your vision. Those dark levels from NSMBW still haunt me.

 

[NintenRob]

Smash tends to use locations that are either heavily marketed or early on in the game (sometimes both, as those two go hand in hand) so I don't see the depths making it in.

And that's a good thing to me tbh. Nothing worse than when a game restricts your vision. Those dark levels from NSMBW still haunt me.

Fair enough if you don't see it happening. But I want to point out two things.


1. Using early game areas isn't a hard rule, loads of stages come from late or mid game areas. A number of examples include: Spear Pillar, Venom, both Pokémon Leagues, Rainbow Ride, 75m, Northern Cave, Street pass Quest, Dracula's Castle (sort of) and I think New Pork City. The depths is hardly end game either. I actually really like the idea of Death Mountain where you start outside on some constructs before flying into Death Mountain and to the Depths below, Death Mountain is such recurring part of the series, having it as a stage would be fantastic.

2. Just because it's dark in source material, doesn't mean it will be dark in Smash. Especially if you go with Death Mountain since the place is lit up by Lava. (And lightroots)

 

[BritishGuy54]

I checked, and yep: Zagreus and the 13 Oomfies don't have their series listed, just like with Noah and Mio.

I believe the ERSB may shed some light on this. Remember the laws that went into place during fp2 that made it so in the west they couldn't mention series that had a higher age rating than Smash's? Wouldn't be surprised if that's the same deal for all three games affected by this. Granted, it doesn't explain why the series don't appear in the Japanese version as well... But maybe they just didn't want to bother with adding a series tag that only would appear in some regions?

I wonder what this means for a new Smash game. It really should be rated T, then.

Noah and Mio not having their series listed shows it affects Nintendo properties too. Worst case scenario, we see the next game rated E10+ and get censorship for Xenoblade, Metroid, Street Fighter, etc.

 

[DarthEnderX]

We already have two Punch out reps, the other one is DK

3 if you count the ref.

 

[dream1ng]

I wonder what this means for a new Smash game. It really should be rated T, then.

Noah and Mio not having their series listed shows it affects Nintendo properties too. Worst case scenario, we see the next game rated E10+ and get censorship for Xenoblade, Metroid, Street Fighter, etc.

Even at T, you'd have to wonder what that meant for the implementation of M-rated series, like Bayo, Persona and MGS. As well as whether the restrictions would compel them away from series of a higher rating than Smash. Of which many notable candidates reside.

It's not that a series can't be added without explicit reference to what that series was, but for something as major as a playable series, it would be strange and awkward and obtuse enough that it may persuade them to seek candidates that wouldn't present that problem.

 

[Gorgonzales]

Smash tends to use locations that are either heavily marketed or early on in the game (sometimes both, as those two go hand in hand)

This is one aspect of stages that I hope they seriously loosen up on, because they follow this so closely that we end up with like 13 grassland stages for Mario (...and two Green Hill Zones).

I really want to see more mid-game and late-game areas, more villain lairs, and more stages from standout/iconic moments from games. These franchises have so many cool areas to make into battlegrounds, I really hope that they really loosen up on giving us first area levels from games because it's gotten really stale and there's just way too many of them at this point.

Mario especially, there's so many varied locations to pull from it's not even funny.

 

[Garteam]

I'm currently recovering from LASIK eye surgery, so I haven't been able to keep up with the thread for a couple of days. However, I have noticed this from catching up on previous posts.

There seems to be a lot of cognitive dissonance regarding cuts for the next Smash game. The consensus of the thread seems to be that approximately 60 vets would return from Ultimate, meaning that about 29 of Ultimate's 89-character roster would not be present. However, the thread is only willing to accept the possibility of about 10 to 15 characters being cut, primarily consisting of characters that are derivative of another and promotional characters that have since become somewhat outdated.

The numerical reality of the situation is that the next Smash wouldn't just be "Everyone is Here except Pichu, Young Link, Corrin, Incineroar, and Piranha Plant". A sizeable chunk of Ultimate would not make the jump to the base roster. The number of cuts that would need to be made to get the game out the door (according to historical trends) is larger than the number of characters with enough merit to their inclusion to justify bringing them back. That means there will be many borderline candidates who will get the axe due to a simple absence of time rather than some inadequacy, especially when you get the "obvious" cuts out of the way.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I don't think Nintendo would necessarily be this cynical (nor would Sakurai be that on board with it), but there would be a certain financial logic in having cuts for less prioritized fighters in the base game in favor of newcomers/high profile veterans... and then gradually putting the former is as select DLC. Wouldn't be all of them and there likely would be some reworking of them in small ways to make stand out as purchases.

It would be essentially a larger scale version of what 4 did with Mewtwo, Lucas, & Roy, just within the contemporary fighter's pass model Ultimate developed.

 

[Potted Plant]

The fact that we're this far into the franchises history and some of the most iconic locations of major series still haven't made it in as stages honestly kinda baffles me. Yeah, Bowser's Castle is the big one, but where's the stage based on Kakariko Village? Victory Road? Any Metroid location that isn't flooded with acid or lava?

 

[Opossum]

The fact that we're this far into the franchises history and some of the most iconic locations of major series still haven't made it in as stages honestly kinda baffles me. Yeah, Bowser's Castle is the big one, but where's the stage based on Kakariko Village? Victory Road? Any Metroid location that isn't flooded with acid or lava?

Never forget that it took until Smash 4 3DS to get a Rainbow Road stage, only for it to be unceremoniously dropped come Ultimate.

 

[Perkilator]

This is one aspect of stages that I hope they seriously loosen up on, because they follow this so closely that we end up with like 13 grassland stages for Mario (...and two Green Hill Zones).

View attachment 384106

I really want to see more mid-game and late-game areas, more villain lairs, and more stages from standout/iconic moments from games. These franchises have so many cool areas to make into battlegrounds, I really hope that they really loosen up on giving us first area levels from games because it's gotten really stale and there's just way too many of them at this point.

Mario especially, there's so many varied locations to pull from it's not even funny.

View attachment 384107

Grassland Groove, Bramble Blast and Golden Temple from Donkey Kong Country as well. Yeah, they share the same jungle-ish theme, but there’s more variety in execution compared to the DKC stages that are in Smash.

 

[Potted Plant]

Never forget that it took until Smash 4 3DS to get a Rainbow Road stage, only for it to be unceremoniously dropped come Ultimate.

Never forgive, never forget.

 

[Potted Plant]

Grassland Groove, Bramble Blast and Golden Temple from Donkey Kong Country as well. Yeah, they share the same jungle-ish theme, but there’s more variety in execution compared to the DKC stages that are in Smash.

You mean you DON'T want an EIGHTH Jungle Hi-jinx remix? /s

 

[fogbadge]

You mean you DON'T want an EIGHTH Jungle Hi-jinx remix? /s

try not double post

 

[Noipoi]

I'm currently recovering from LASIK eye surgery, so I haven't been able to keep up with the thread for a couple of days. However, I have noticed this from catching up on previous posts.

There seems to be a lot of cognitive dissonance regarding cuts for the next Smash game. The consensus of the thread seems to be that approximately 60 vets would return from Ultimate, meaning that about 29 of Ultimate's 89-character roster would not be present. However, the thread is only willing to accept the possibility of about 10 to 15 characters being cut, primarily consisting of characters that are derivative of another and promotional characters that have since become somewhat outdated.

The numerical reality of the situation is that the next Smash wouldn't just be "Everyone is Here except Pichu, Young Link, Corrin, Incineroar, and Piranha Plant". A sizeable chunk of Ultimate would not make the jump to the base roster. The number of cuts that would need to be made to get the game out the door (according to historical trends) is larger than the number of characters with enough merit to their inclusion to justify bringing them back. That means there will be many borderline candidates who will get the axe due to a simple absence of time rather than some inadequacy, especially when you get the "obvious" cuts out of the way.

Y’know what, that’s a good point.

I am now adjusting my prediction. The next game’s base roster will be around 70-75.

 

[RileyXY1]

I think that the roster will most likely be around 50-60 characters if they don't go for the Ultimate Deluxe route. The only way it's getting any lower is if they completely change the series's mechanics entirely, and I don't know if they're gonna do that.

 

[Gorgonzales]

Grassland Groove, Bramble Blast and Golden Temple from Donkey Kong Country as well. Yeah, they share the same jungle-ish theme, but there’s more variety in execution compared to the DKC stages that are in Smash.

Man, Grassland Groove was one heck of a level. I'd love to see a Smash stage based on it. Bramble Blast is so iconic too, it should definitely be here already.

To add on top of your suggestions I think DK could also use a minecart cavern level from DKC1, it'd be a nice stage to tie everything together.

 

[Noipoi]

We’re gonna need like 3 Pokémon stages to make up for lost time

 

[CannonStreak]

There is something I have to say, something I have to vent about.

I recall there were characters people wanted in past Smash Bros. games to get in, but the haters of such characters all said, and keep saying things about why they can't get in, normally dumb things. In particular, I have seen haters say some characters can't get in in terms of an existing character or another character they think will replace them. I believe they said Young Link can't be in Smash again because we have Toon Link. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate says hi. In Brawl, they said Ness can't return because Lucas will replace him. The intro for Brawl disproved that. I have even seen people say Wolf could not be in Brawl because Fox has a costume that looks like him. Then came the leaks, and Wolf's official announcement. You get what I mean.

So with that, don't you all think the arguments saying this character can't be in Smash because of another existing character or an existing character can't get in because we have a new character that would take their place is all a dumb argument?

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I I believe they said Young Link can't be in Smash again because we have Toon Link. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate says hi.

This was less haters and more logic based around the fact this was a legit case of replacement happening. The only one in fact.
You point out Ultimate being evidence to the contrary, and yet you ignore the context of why that is. Specifically because of "Everyone Is Here". "Everyone" includes Young Link in spite of Toon Link existing as well.

 

[CannonStreak]

This was less haters and more logic based around the fact this was a legit case of replacement happening. The only one in fact.
You point out Ultimate being evidence to the contrary, and yet you ignore the context of why that is. Specifically because of "Everyone Is Here". "Everyone" includes Young Link in spite of Toon Link existing as well.

I should have addressed this in my original post, but I am aware of that. The everyone is here part.

My point is, whether it is hate or logic, logic does NOT always work, doesn't it?

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I should have addressed this in my original post, but I am aware of that. The everyone is here part.

My point is, whether it is hate or logic, logic does NOT always work, doesn't it?

It doesn't always, but it isn't a reason to completely throw it out the window.

Exceptions exist.

 

[CannonStreak]

It doesn't always, but it isn't a reason to completely throw it out the window.

This is probably not the best thing to say in something like this, but Sakurai is not the most predictable person out there, AND he seems good at hiding what character could come next most of the time. (aside from insiders and leakers). Whether it can be thrown out the window or not, you can't use logic when you barely, or at all know what the next character might be that Sakurai reveals. Still, in the hands of the average fan that tries to use, whether it becomes valid or not, logic may not be their best area of expertise. I mean, a lot of fans, not that they are dumb but...they may not be so skilled in using logic that well, especially when compared to the average person.

Also, I used Young Link and Toon Link because even though I knew the flaws behind that example, I thought would not hurt to use it as an example.

 

[Louie G.]

I'm currently recovering from LASIK eye surgery, so I haven't been able to keep up with the thread for a couple of days. However, I have noticed this from catching up on previous posts.

There seems to be a lot of cognitive dissonance regarding cuts for the next Smash game. The consensus of the thread seems to be that approximately 60 vets would return from Ultimate, meaning that about 29 of Ultimate's 89-character roster would not be present. However, the thread is only willing to accept the possibility of about 10 to 15 characters being cut, primarily consisting of characters that are derivative of another and promotional characters that have since become somewhat outdated.

The numerical reality of the situation is that the next Smash wouldn't just be "Everyone is Here except Pichu, Young Link, Corrin, Incineroar, and Piranha Plant". A sizeable chunk of Ultimate would not make the jump to the base roster. The number of cuts that would need to be made to get the game out the door (according to historical trends) is larger than the number of characters with enough merit to their inclusion to justify bringing them back. That means there will be many borderline candidates who will get the axe due to a simple absence of time rather than some inadequacy, especially when you get the "obvious" cuts out of the way.

You're definitely right, which is why unfortunately I do recognize the danger that those aforementioned characters / series with less room to grow or expand - Ice Climbers, ROB, Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt - are in some danger, but the conversation about Wii Fit in particular was valuable because I think she's a generally underappreciated character within the fanbase.

I think I'll echo what others have said though regarding third parties, how that will make up a noticeable chunk of our losses. Smash could theoretically bring back nearly everyone, they have the budget and they have the clout. But if they want to continue to leave space for new guest characters to come in, I feel like it's possible that we lose even some of the "easier" grabs... like maybe Kazuya or Bayonetta, in favor of new faces from those respective companies. Obviously Pac-Man and Sonic stay, I think every company probably holds onto one or two ambassadors, but I feel like it's not unreasonable that some characters get treated more as cyclical "guests" in the spirit of other fighting games and then a select few get the privilege of becoming a mainstay.

When we really put it in perspective, the only third party that has ever returned under completely normal conditions is Sonic. I think we can make assumptions on which others might be safe bets - like, Pac-Man is probably about as safe as he is. But we actually have no idea what is considered a "normal" transition between games for third party characters. And I think these circumstances have made it especially difficult to determine that, because now we have so many and it's just kind of an established part of the series.

Bottom line though, if we said goodbye to 8-10 third party characters, cut a number of semiclones loose, trimmed the fat on the most substantially represented series... then we're starting to get closer to that 20-ish mark. There are just a few weirdo characters on the bubble I'd be concerned about.

Any Metroid location that isn't flooded with acid or lava?

Well, we do have Frigate Orpheon. But yeah there are plenty of other ones I'd like to see too, like the EMMI areas or Raven Beak's lair from Dread or a more classic angle with Tourian or Upper Brinstar from Super Metroid.

And well, I know it doesn't fix the lava problem, but I think it'd be awesome to have a stage based on Ridley's lair.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

This is probably not the best thing to say in something like this, but Sakurai is not the most predictable person out there, AND he seems good at hiding what character could come next most of the time. (aside from insiders and leakers). Whether it can be thrown out the window or not, you can't use logic when you barely, or at all know what the next character might be that Sakurai reveals. Still, in the hands of the average fan that tries to use, whether it becomes valid or not, logic may not be their best area of expertise. I mean, a lot of fans, not that they are dumb but...they may not be so skilled in using logic that well, especially when compared to the average person.

I can and I have. To majority success. Saying "Sakurai is unpredictable" is honestly a cop out as it gives the impression one cannot be asked to put true thought into things and just throw caution to the wind as if Sakurai is the living embodiment of randomness. Where instead the main takeaway is that one should always be prepared to be proven wrong by an unseen factor at any given moment, not because "Sakurai is unpredictable" but because there might be something we're just not seeing in front of us that he is.

But this is straying far from the initial point, now isn't it?

Also, I used Young Link and Toon Link because even though I knew the flaws behind that example, I thought would not hurt to use it as an example.

It is the weakest example you could've possibly given provided the extraneous circumstances behind how we got both in Ultimate. We would not have had Young Link return if Ultimate wasn't bringing back literally everyone who had been in Smash before, something in itself nothing short of a miracle.

Better examples would be how people would say K. Rool was too similar to Bowser (because fat lizard, I guess?) or Ridley would be too similar to Charizard because fire breathing dragon, or Incineroar was redundant because Captain Falcon because "fire brawler", Bowser because "he has a dropkick so he's a wrestler", Charizard because "Fire type Starter" and K. Rool because "HE HAS ARGENTINE BACKBREAKER".

 

[Potted Plant]

You're definitely right, which is why unfortunately I do recognize the danger that those aforementioned characters / series with less room to grow or expand - Ice Climbers, ROB, Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt - are in some danger, but the conversation about Wii Fit in particular was valuable because I think she's a generally underappreciated character within the fanbase.

I think I'll echo what others have said though regarding third parties, how that will make up a noticeable chunk of our losses. Smash could theoretically bring back nearly everyone, they have the budget and they have the clout. But if they want to continue to leave space for new guest characters to come in, I feel like it's possible that we lose even some of the "easier" grabs... like maybe Kazuya or Bayonetta, in favor of new faces from those respective companies. Obviously Pac-Man and Sonic stay, I think every company probably holds onto one or two ambassadors, but I feel like it's not unreasonable that some characters get treated more as cyclical "guests" in the spirit of other fighting games and then a select few get the privilege of becoming a mainstay.

When we really put it in perspective, the only third party that has ever returned under completely normal conditions is Sonic. I think we can make assumptions on which others might be safe bets - like, Pac-Man is probably about as safe as he is. But we actually have no idea what is considered a "normal" transition between games for third party characters. And I think these circumstances have made it especially difficult to determine that, because now we have so many and it's just kind of an established part of the series.

Bottom line though, if we said goodbye to 8-10 third party characters, cut a number of semiclones loose, trimmed the fat on the most substantially represented series... then we're starting to get closer to that 20-ish mark. There are just a few weirdo characters on the bubble I'd be concerned about.



Well, we do have Frigate Orpheon. But yeah there are plenty of other ones I'd like to see too, like the EMMI areas or Raven Beak's lair from Dread or a more classic angle with Tourian or Upper Brinstar from Super Metroid.

And well, I know it doesn't fix the lava problem, but I think it'd be awesome to have a stage based on Ridley's lair.

View attachment 384109

My ideal Metroid Stage lineup is Chozodia, Lower Norfair, Phendrana Drifts and Mawkin Throne Room, to go with my ideal Metroid lineup of Samus, Ridley, original moveset Dark Samus and Raven Beak. Thoughts?

 

[CannonStreak]

I can and I have. To majority success. Saying "Sakurai is unpredictable" is honestly a cop out as it gives the impression one cannot be asked to put true thought into things and just throw caution to the wind as if Sakurai is the living embodiment of randomness. Where instead the main takeaway is that one should always be prepared to be proven wrong by an unseen factor at any given moment, not because "Sakurai is unpredictable" but because there might be something we're just not seeing in front of us that he is.

But this is straying far from the initial point, now isn't it?



It is the weakest example you could've possibly give provided the extraneous circumstances behind how we got both in Ultimate. We would not have had Young Link return if Ultimate wasn't bringing back literally everyone who had been in Smash before, something in itself nothing short of a miracle.

Better examples would be how people would say K. Rool was too similar to Bowser (because fat lizard, I guess?) or Ridley would be too similar to Charizard because fire breathing dragon, or Incineroar was redundant because Captain Falcon because "fire brawler", Bowser because "he has a dropkick so he's a wrestler", Charizard because "Fire type Starter" and K. Rool because "HE HAS ARGENTINE BACKBREAKER".

Well, I did not think of those examples, so thanks for those. Except I was talking about two characters being used in such arguments, so King K. Rool does not fit what I was talking about, does it not? Also, I did say Sakurai not being the most predictable to be not the best thing to say, so that wasn't the most important part of what I was trying to say.

That said, I still don't think a lot of fans use logic right, or are fit to do so. Again, not that they are stupid, but some things are better left to those who are more qualified, which can include some fans.

Still, a lot of fans do turn out wrong at times. I think with what little Sakurai gives in terms of hints for characters (not that this is saying Sakurai is unpredictable again, mind you), fans are better off singing up as insiders since they aren't much in the know of things.

 

[Louie G.]

My ideal Metroid Stage lineup is Chozodia, Lower Norfair, Phendrana Drifts and Mawkin Throne Room, to go with my ideal Metroid lineup of Samus, Ridley, original moveset Dark Samus and Raven Beak. Thoughts?

Yeah this sounds great to me, I was thinking Phendrana Drifts also. I think Chozodia in particular could be a really striking stage, I'd love to see how they approach that. With those old ruins, chozo statues and blocks, while maybe taking some more from the outer area and its really pleasant purple tint. The more cultural chozo aspect of Metroid isn't very prominently represented so it'd be cool.

 

[Pupp135]

I'm currently recovering from LASIK eye surgery, so I haven't been able to keep up with the thread for a couple of days. However, I have noticed this from catching up on previous posts.

There seems to be a lot of cognitive dissonance regarding cuts for the next Smash game. The consensus of the thread seems to be that approximately 60 vets would return from Ultimate, meaning that about 29 of Ultimate's 89-character roster would not be present. However, the thread is only willing to accept the possibility of about 10 to 15 characters being cut, primarily consisting of characters that are derivative of another and promotional characters that have since become somewhat outdated.

The numerical reality of the situation is that the next Smash wouldn't just be "Everyone is Here except Pichu, Young Link, Corrin, Incineroar, and Piranha Plant". A sizeable chunk of Ultimate would not make the jump to the base roster. The number of cuts that would need to be made to get the game out the door (according to historical trends) is larger than the number of characters with enough merit to their inclusion to justify bringing them back. That means there will be many borderline candidates who will get the axe due to a simple absence of time rather than some inadequacy, especially when you get the "obvious" cuts out of the way.

I hope your recovery is going well, and I definitely agree with your statement above regarding cuts. I think one thing that can help us discuss cuts in a more meaningful way is to have us create priority lists like this thread, which would allow us to discuss a character’s placement in terms of priority as we don’t have any useful indicators regarding the roster size at this point.

 

[dream1ng]

I'm currently recovering from LASIK eye surgery, so I haven't been able to keep up with the thread for a couple of days. However, I have noticed this from catching up on previous posts.

There seems to be a lot of cognitive dissonance regarding cuts for the next Smash game. The consensus of the thread seems to be that approximately 60 vets would return from Ultimate, meaning that about 29 of Ultimate's 89-character roster would not be present. However, the thread is only willing to accept the possibility of about 10 to 15 characters being cut, primarily consisting of characters that are derivative of another and promotional characters that have since become somewhat outdated.

The numerical reality of the situation is that the next Smash wouldn't just be "Everyone is Here except Pichu, Young Link, Corrin, Incineroar, and Piranha Plant". A sizeable chunk of Ultimate would not make the jump to the base roster. The number of cuts that would need to be made to get the game out the door (according to historical trends) is larger than the number of characters with enough merit to their inclusion to justify bringing them back. That means there will be many borderline candidates who will get the axe due to a simple absence of time rather than some inadequacy, especially when you get the "obvious" cuts out of the way.

Totally agreed. I've also seen very little in the way of a counter rebuttal when it's raised how cuts at that level (10-15) are more than unlikely, they simply don't make sense. I understand the argument against cuts (past those they couldn't relicense). I don't think that's what's going to happen, but I agree it theoretically is plausible.

But there is no situation in which first-party cuts make sense if you're not starting over. If you just keep going off of Ultimate, there wouldn't be any of those cuts. It's either going to be no out outside of licensing, or however many they could bring back when starting over (which is far less than 75-80, given both finite resources and the prioritizing of newcomers).

*this is regarding the roster as a whole, not just base. Because in theory, if they're doing a more live service type rollout, they could keep going off of Ultimate but cut out a big part of the roster from base to drop intermittently as DLC. That'd be shady, but it's possible.

I think, in the situation where we do rebuild, we will see characters lost from all the heavily-represented series (Mario, Pokemon, FE, Zelda), from the less currently major IPs (some of the surprise picks, Star Fox, Kid Icarus, etc.), from some of the third-parties - just due to not all of them receiving requisite priority, and potentially other clones/derivates who don't fit one of those categories.

 

[CommanderZaktan]

A new week, and we're getting the 3rd spirit event this week. Any predictions?