Notes about predictability

[Al Snow]

Being predictable is a habit that a lot of people have trouble trying to shake off. It can be something as little as taunting after every kill to something more substantial like always tech-rolling away from the opponent. Either way, all you are doing is making it easier for your opponent to read your playing patterns and punish you accordingly. This could be a reason why someone loses a majority of there matches. Regardless of the skill of their opponent, an important part of the game is being able to keep your opponent guessing, not predicting.

The difference between guessing and predicting, while the definitions may be similar, is that guessing is a matter of chance. Let's set up a situation. Say your opponent is knocked down on the stage. They only have 4 options. They can either roll to the left or right, get up attack, or regular get up animation. So, say you guess your opponent is going to roll to the right and you proceed to dash grab to the right, and by luck they do go to the right, you've successfully guessed what your opponent was going to do. However, predicting your opponent is going to roll to the right takes more knowledge of your opponent and their play style.

Predicting takes more knowledge of how your opponent plays and recognizing their habits and patterns. If playing tournament style rules, (best of 3) and you've never met your opponent before, your first stock or so in your first match is very important. You should be noticing in the back of your head what your opponent's tendencies are and how to react to them.

Here are some common habits to look for when playing your opponent.

- What direction they generally tend to roll to (away from you, or behind you)
- What direction they generally tech (tech in place, left, or right)
- What they generally do off the ledge (ledge attack, ledge roll, jump to ariel)
- What they do out of their grab ( certain ariels and chases)
- What they generally do right out of teching

...there are probably more, but I can't really think of any more (feel free to suggest some)

Now, once you start to notice the habits used from the examples above, it's time to start predicting and punishing. First off, let us assume that your opponent doesn't recognize they are being predictable and they have little knowledge of predictability (for the example's sake).

First example: You've noticed that your opponent has a tendency to tech roll away from you.

You: Captain Falcon Opponent: Fox

When you start to recognize that they are always teching away from you, it's time to punish their predictably. So now the next time you put them in the situation where they can tech roll, follow their roll with a move to punish them with a knee. Also, if you are having trouble taking the stock, and your opponent is at a high enough percentage, put them in a situation like this where you know how they will react and get the kill.

Second example: You've noticed that your opponent has a tendency to tech roll behind you

You: Doctor Mario Opponent: Marth

So every time your opponent tech lands, they always tech roll behind you and you know this now. Just put them in that situation and forward smash them out of their roll.

Third example: You've noticed that your opponent has a tendency to jump off the ledge when getting back on stage.

You: Sheik Opponent: Luigi

I chose Sheik for this example because of how good her fair is. Anyways, so after watching them consistently jump off the edge, the next time they do it, they'll jump right into a fair possibly killing them.

Fourth example: You've noticed your opponent has a tendency to abuse certain moves.

You: Marth Opponent: Captain Falcon

So you've noticed your opponent is using Raptor Boost a lot to set up combos and has a tendency to use it out of dash dancing. Bait him into Raptor Boosting, wave dash backwards and tip them.

While this may seem pretty easy, decent opponents aren't going to keep doing their habits if they notice they are getting punished for it. They will eventually start to change and try to become less predictable, which is the overall goal. So, if you have been punishing your opponent left and right for their habits and they start to change in a way that you are guessing more than predicting, then its time to start baiting your opponent. Your goal is to make your opponent keep doing their bad habits to the point where they don't realize what they are doing and it all comes as natural reaction to them. Like example 5, if you want to lure the Captain Falcon into doing the Raptor Boost, you can bait them with empty short hops so you aren't committed to a laggy attack, putting you at the advantage.

Keeping yourself unpredictable is such an important part of the game and the players really need to become aware of their habits. This is why good players are able to chain grab you or combo you to death because they react to your mistakes or tendencies.

So in the end, the major points to look for when it comes to predictability are:

- Noticing a players habits and tendencies
- Using that knowledge to punish your opponent
- Changing up your game so you don't become predictable


Hope this helps anyone who's trying to improve, but don't know how. Feel free to make suggestions or additions.

Helpful information

Really great players won't tech roll predictably even in the beginning, so these don't apply to every match up, although most people have one choice they like to use more than others. Mango seems to tech in place more often than left or right, but he still mixes it up enough to avoid being punished most times.

A couple notes.
First of all, it's always better to react than to try to predict. Predicting is more difficult to do (takes a higher level of thinking) and its not as reliable. So for instance following the DI of the enemies throw, even if reacting doesn't yield as much reward as successfully predicting, unless you need the high reward just take the guaranteed. This is also why 90% of the time, top falcons will just tech chase with more grabs instead of trying stomps or knees.

Secondly, a tip on predicting techs. Pay special attention to how your opponent techs the first time. In most cases that's gonna be their default tech, how they tech by reaction before they start thinking about it. Whenever a little while passes without your opponent having to avoid being tech chased, they're next tech is probably gonna be their default. Also, how close your opponent is to an edge is a HUGE factor to their default tech.

actually tech chasing with grabs is usually just good for 1 or 2 in a row, then its much better for falcons to go for aerials once they feel like they have an idea of where the person might tech. if you just grab, you need to go like 10 times in a row without making a mistake in order to get them to a percent where you can start doing anything that might kill them

another note on DI, 90% of the time theres a right way to DI that doesnt allow or severely limits combos, its not so much a matter of predicting which way theyll DI or even reacting to it. your example of falco DI'ing away from falcons up throw isnt a very good example, because as long as falco DI's away falcon cant combo out of up throw until like 120% or something really high

Thing about it...is that there are some times where a person has a pattern of more than one tech at a time. My one friend told me how The Cape told him his pattern. It was like a 5 part pattern to teching. My friend didn't believe it, but when Cape kept reading his techs, it proved to be right.

Predictability can only be used to a point. Melee is a rather fast paced game, and unless you play a person a LOT (I.E. - Friendlies) it might take a while to find predictability to an opponent. However, in a tournament situation...it would be a good idea to play friendlies. you can learn a lot about how a person techs and then use it against them in the actual match. Habits are habits. The key point is to not be short sighted in reading them. Some patterns can be longer than others. A person may tech one way, then tech another...then just tech standing. That could be their pattern. Easy to figure out, yes. However, a person's string could be longer than that...perhaps they do that twice, and then start teching in the same direction twice in a row after that? As crazy at it sounds....a pattern may be long. Always be careful when trying to read a person's habits.

 

[victra♥]

Awesome first post man.

Jeez, guides are popping up everywhere now. xD

 

[G~low]

Wow, interesting read i like it, yeah it helps alot ^_^
Mindgames!

Good 1st post

 

[Chaco]

Hmm, very good read.

 

[Deleted member]

I like this, because it reminds me of all my bad Melee habits, for example, I always taunt after kills

 

[Grunt]

if you play Falcon, taunting after each kill isn't a bad habit, but a natural phenomenon driven by the force of Captain Falcon's manliness.

 

[Miggz]

Very well said.

First post too?

You're pretty cool. XD

Thanks for this guide.

 

[CommanderCody08]

Here are some common habits to look for when playing your opponent.

- What direction they generally tend to roll to (away from you, or behind you)
- What direction they generally tech (tech in place, left, or right)
- What they generally do off the ledge (ledge attack, ledge roll, jump to ariel)
- What they generally do out of grabs (DI away, towards, no DI)
- What they do out of their grab ( certain ariels and chases)

...there are probably more, but I can't really think of any more (feel free to suggest some)

What they do right after teching too. Yesterday I got to punish a guy who always spot dodged after tech-rolling with a charged f-smash with falcon.

 

[Binx]

Really great players won't tech roll predictably even in the beginning, so these don't apply to every match up, although most people have one choice they like to use more than others. Mango seems to tech in place more often than left or right, but he still mixes it up enough to avoid being punished most times.

Definitely good information, nothing particular new but its concise and it says it all. Good job.

 

[Cra$hman]

A couple notes.
First of all, it's always better to react than to try to predict. Predicting is more difficult to do (takes a higher level of thinking) and its not as reliable. So for instance following the DI of the enemies throw, even if reacting doesn't yield as much reward as successfully predicting, unless you need the high reward just take the guaranteed. This is also why 90% of the time, top falcons will just tech chase with more grabs instead of trying stomps or knees.

Secondly, a tip on predicting techs. Pay special attention to how your opponent techs the first time. In most cases that's gonna be their default tech, how they tech by reaction before they start thinking about it. Whenever a little while passes without your opponent having to avoid being tech chased, they're next tech is probably gonna be their default. Also, how close your opponent is to an edge is a HUGE factor to their default tech.

 

[Al Snow]

A couple notes.
First of all, it's always better to react than to try to predict. Predicting is more difficult to do (takes a higher level of thinking) and its not as reliable. So for instance following the DI of the enemies throw, even if reacting doesn't yield as much reward as successfully predicting, unless you need the high reward just take the guaranteed. This is also why 90% of the time, top falcons will just tech chase with more grabs instead of trying stomps or knees.

Secondly, a tip on predicting techs. Pay special attention to how your opponent techs the first time. In most cases that's gonna be their default tech, how they tech by reaction before they start thinking about it. Whenever a little while passes without your opponent having to avoid being tech chased, they're next tech is probably gonna be their default. Also, how close your opponent is to an edge is a HUGE factor to their default tech.

Some good info you have here. I agree that predicting is gonna get you in trouble if you focus on it solely. I think it would be better to recognize your opponent's default tech, like you said, and try to save that situation for the kill, so the opponent doesn't expect it, or have time to react. For example, like how you stated that if you don't give your opponent time to think, they have less time to react to the situation and will just do what comes naturally. So throwing them right out of a grab would be a good example of what you were saying. I'm probably gonna quote what you said and what some other people said and put it in the post because I think it's some valuable info that should be noted. Also, I'm changing the title to "notes about predictability" because I don't think what I said can be set in stone because it's a pretty opinionated topic and it's expanding too.

 

[DrewB008]

actually tech chasing with grabs is usually just good for 1 or 2 in a row, then its much better for falcons to go for aerials once they feel like they have an idea of where the person might tech. if you just grab, you need to go like 10 times in a row without making a mistake in order to get them to a percent where you can start doing anything that might kill them

another note on DI, 90% of the time theres a right way to DI that doesnt allow or severely limits combos, its not so much a matter of predicting which way theyll DI or even reacting to it. your example of falco DI'ing away from falcons up throw isnt a very good example, because as long as falco DI's away falcon cant combo out of up throw until like 120% or something really high

 

[Proverbs]

if you play Falcon, taunting after each kill isn't a bad habit, but a natural phenomenon driven by the force of Captain Falcon's manliness.

Too true. I almost never taunt with Marth (my main), but when playing Falcon I taunt after basically every time something awesome happens--which is at least once per stock when you're playing Falcon XD

 

[Rain(ame)]

Thing about it...is that there are some times where a person has a pattern of more than one tech at a time. My one friend told me how The Cape told him his pattern. It was like a 5 part pattern to teching. My friend didn't believe it, but when Cape kept reading his techs, it proved to be right.

Predictability can only be used to a point. Melee is a rather fast paced game, and unless you play a person a LOT (I.E. - Friendlies) it might take a while to find predictability to an opponent. However, in a tournament situation...it would be a good idea to play friendlies. you can learn a lot about how a person techs and then use it against them in the actual match. Habits are habits. The key point is to not be short sighted in reading them. Some patterns can be longer than others. A person may tech one way, then tech another...then just tech standing. That could be their pattern. Easy to figure out, yes. However, a person's string could be longer than that...perhaps they do that twice, and then start teching in the same direction twice in a row after that? As crazy at it sounds....a pattern may be long. Always be careful when trying to read a person's habits.

 

[Al Snow]

another note on DI, 90% of the time theres a right way to DI that doesnt allow or severely limits combos, its not so much a matter of predicting which way theyll DI or even reacting to it. your example of falco DI'ing away from falcons up throw isnt a very good example, because as long as falco DI's away falcon cant combo out of up throw until like 120% or something really high

True true. I wasn't really thinking about that when I was picking character's for the example. I should probably change it to someone more floaty. Thanks for the clarification though

 

[Kami-V]

Good read. Nothing new for me, but it's always nice to have reminders.

 

[metashinryu]

if you play Falcon, taunting after each kill isn't a bad habit, but a natural phenomenon driven by the force of Captain Falcon's manliness.

thats so **** true XD

 

[Al Snow]

Good read. Nothing new for me, but it's always nice to have reminders.

Yea lol, none of this is supposed to be like groundbreaking information, I just figured that it would be helpful for anyone who needs something material to look at instead of asking around for what someone would do in certain situations, if that makes sense. Anyways, yea, even though most of this stuff can be learned by yourself, I think that it would be a nice thread to look at quickly if your stuck and looking for ways to improve. Plus, it seems to be turning out well so far because a lot of people's responses have some pretty helpful information that should also be looked at.

 

[DrewB008]

my point wasnt that the combo doesnt work

my point was that most of the time, predicting DI is not an issue because there is a right way to DI, for example falco DI's away and there is nothing falcon can do

its simply not a part of the game that requires much in terms of predicting, there are occasional mixups you can do to cause people to DI moves wrong but its not a question of saying to yourself "i bet theyll DI away" and then attacking in that area

 

[Al Snow]

my point wasnt that the combo doesnt work

my point was that most of the time, predicting DI is not an issue because there is a right way to DI, for example falco DI's away and there is nothing falcon can do

its simply not a part of the game that requires much in terms of predicting, there are occasional mixups you can do to cause people to DI moves wrong but its not a question of saying to yourself "i bet theyll DI away" and then attacking in that area

oh ok. I never really thought of it that way, but I see where you're coming from. I think I'll take the DI example out because I was basically struggling for more examples. And with there being a right way to DI, if they DI the wrong way, its probably more of a reaction thing if anything. So yea, I think i'll take it out because I don't want to confuse anyone into thinking they can easily predict DI when technically you're supposed to DI certain ways at certain times, like you were saying.

 

[Cra$hman]

Marth throws can benefit from prediction.

 

[KevinM]

Crashman beat me to it.

 

[Spife]

Tag, good read. Third example could have Link up-bing out of shield instead of sheik fairing like a high tier, but only because I"m a fanatic >.>