This has been posted before, but there have been a lot of new faces that have joined and there is more talk about Smash Brothers. So, it may be a good time to share this information. Chronobound did some research on the Japanese fanbase and the following are his results. The information in this thread is from GameFAQ and includes some of his replies to other members about characters.
The following was made by Chronobound/Snakey and not by me. This is all his work, so if you are re-posting this information, please give him credit.
Here are my latest observations on what I have seen on Japanese forums, websites, and blogs when the topic of Smash 4 comes up.
Mario: Surprisingly, there is little demand for a Mario newcomer. Requests come up for nearly every Mario character, but each one of them does not have much requests.
Donkey Kong: K. Rool is amongst the most requested newcomers outside the cut Melee duo. Dixie Kong is also highly requested.
The Legend of Zelda: Its Ghirahim. After that its Toon Zelda. Tingle rarely comes up. Its important to note that Skyward Sword was by far the lowest selling 3D Zelda in Japan.
Metroid: Metroid requests rarely come up. However, I have seen posts mentioning Ridley's "overseas popularity".
Yoshi: Yoshi requests never come up.
Kirby: Waddle Dee (Bandanna). Before Return to Dream Land's release, it seemed that Gooey was the choice in regards to a fourth playable Kirby character.
Star Fox: Requests are uncommon, but when they do come up its usually Krystal, Leon, or Slippy. None of these characters have a notable amount of request volume.
Pokemon: Mewtwo is one of the two most requested characters. After him, its probably Zoroark for this series. Zoroark is definitely one of the names that comes up a lot, but how much of this is "expected" versus actually "wanted" is hard to determine. Requests also come up for B/W Trainer, Victini, and most recently Genesect. Genesect has a lot of potential to grow, imo.
F-Zero: Requests for a F-Zero newcomer usually go to Black Shadow. A lot of people want Black Shadow to be voiced by Norio Wakamoto.
Mother: Requests are uncommon, but when it does happen I usually see Kumatora.
Fire Emblem: Roy is one of the two most requested characters. After him, its Chrom for this series. Chrom is definitely one of the names that comes up a lot, but how much of this is "expected" versus actually "wanted" is hard to determine. A distant third is Lucina, who recently has taken up the mantle as the most wanted female Fire Emblem newcomer (that tiara last belonged to Micaiah over there). However, there is a debate amongst Lucina supporters whether her place would be better as a costume of Marth or a stand-alone character.
Kid Icarus: Palutena is the only character of this series that gets a large amount of requests. However, Palutena is definitely amongst the most wanted characters outside the cut Melee duo.
Pikmin: Pikmin requests never happen.
Wario: Wario requests never happen.
Retro: Retro requests are surprisingly uncommon. However, when it does happen its usually Takamaru.
Other: Shulk gets quite a lot of requests. Shulk is easily the most requested Nintendo character from a series not represented yet with a playable character in Smash Bros. A distant second would be Starfy. There are several Japanese Smash fans that mention Punch-Out and Little Mac's "overseas" popularity. Isaac (Robin in Japan) and Matthew get few requests. Saki and Isa also get few requests.
Third-party: Mega Man is by far the most requested third-party character, and the only one that comes up a lot. Mega Man is definitely amonst the most wanted characters outside the cut Melee duo. Aside from Mega Man, there is a lot of arguing and flame wars in regards to Namco. There is arguing not just about whether a Namco character should even be added, but amongst those who think one should be added there is no consensus. There are flame wars about which Tekken and Tales of character would be best for Smash Bros.
Here is a basic tier list amongst the characters that tend to get the most requests:
S:
Mewtwo
Roy
A:
Mega Man
Palutena
Shulk
K. Rool
B:
Dixie Kong
Chrom
Zoroark
Waddle Dee
After that there is a large dropoff, and its quite difficult to group. However, most of the character requests are with these characters.
Also, its important noting that Toad is very popular in Japan, though this does not translate to Smash Bros. requests since these is a deep pessimism that his permanent role in the Smash Bros. series is as Peach's special. If such pessimism did not exist, Toad would definitely be amongst the most wanted newcomers for Smash 4 in Japan (possibly in the A-tier range).
That is pretty much what I saw. Sakurai has probably already decided most of the spots on the roster.
C-Tier
General
New moveset for Ganondorf
"What are the general views on Sonic and Snake? Do they think they should stay or should they leave after 1 game like 3rd party reps in other games?"
Duck Hunt Dog
Bayonetta
Does Japan think about us?
Some other findings, Cutousy of Groose
The following was made by Chronobound/Snakey and not by me. This is all his work, so if you are re-posting this information, please give him credit.
Here are my latest observations on what I have seen on Japanese forums, websites, and blogs when the topic of Smash 4 comes up.
Mario: Surprisingly, there is little demand for a Mario newcomer. Requests come up for nearly every Mario character, but each one of them does not have much requests.
Donkey Kong: K. Rool is amongst the most requested newcomers outside the cut Melee duo. Dixie Kong is also highly requested.
The Legend of Zelda: Its Ghirahim. After that its Toon Zelda. Tingle rarely comes up. Its important to note that Skyward Sword was by far the lowest selling 3D Zelda in Japan.
Metroid: Metroid requests rarely come up. However, I have seen posts mentioning Ridley's "overseas popularity".
Yoshi: Yoshi requests never come up.
Kirby: Waddle Dee (Bandanna). Before Return to Dream Land's release, it seemed that Gooey was the choice in regards to a fourth playable Kirby character.
Star Fox: Requests are uncommon, but when they do come up its usually Krystal, Leon, or Slippy. None of these characters have a notable amount of request volume.
Pokemon: Mewtwo is one of the two most requested characters. After him, its probably Zoroark for this series. Zoroark is definitely one of the names that comes up a lot, but how much of this is "expected" versus actually "wanted" is hard to determine. Requests also come up for B/W Trainer, Victini, and most recently Genesect. Genesect has a lot of potential to grow, imo.
F-Zero: Requests for a F-Zero newcomer usually go to Black Shadow. A lot of people want Black Shadow to be voiced by Norio Wakamoto.
Mother: Requests are uncommon, but when it does happen I usually see Kumatora.
Fire Emblem: Roy is one of the two most requested characters. After him, its Chrom for this series. Chrom is definitely one of the names that comes up a lot, but how much of this is "expected" versus actually "wanted" is hard to determine. A distant third is Lucina, who recently has taken up the mantle as the most wanted female Fire Emblem newcomer (that tiara last belonged to Micaiah over there). However, there is a debate amongst Lucina supporters whether her place would be better as a costume of Marth or a stand-alone character.
Kid Icarus: Palutena is the only character of this series that gets a large amount of requests. However, Palutena is definitely amongst the most wanted characters outside the cut Melee duo.
Pikmin: Pikmin requests never happen.
Wario: Wario requests never happen.
Retro: Retro requests are surprisingly uncommon. However, when it does happen its usually Takamaru.
Other: Shulk gets quite a lot of requests. Shulk is easily the most requested Nintendo character from a series not represented yet with a playable character in Smash Bros. A distant second would be Starfy. There are several Japanese Smash fans that mention Punch-Out and Little Mac's "overseas" popularity. Isaac (Robin in Japan) and Matthew get few requests. Saki and Isa also get few requests.
Third-party: Mega Man is by far the most requested third-party character, and the only one that comes up a lot. Mega Man is definitely amonst the most wanted characters outside the cut Melee duo. Aside from Mega Man, there is a lot of arguing and flame wars in regards to Namco. There is arguing not just about whether a Namco character should even be added, but amongst those who think one should be added there is no consensus. There are flame wars about which Tekken and Tales of character would be best for Smash Bros.
Here is a basic tier list amongst the characters that tend to get the most requests:
S:
Mewtwo
Roy
A:
Mega Man
Palutena
Shulk
K. Rool
B:
Dixie Kong
Chrom
Zoroark
Waddle Dee
After that there is a large dropoff, and its quite difficult to group. However, most of the character requests are with these characters.
Also, its important noting that Toad is very popular in Japan, though this does not translate to Smash Bros. requests since these is a deep pessimism that his permanent role in the Smash Bros. series is as Peach's special. If such pessimism did not exist, Toad would definitely be amongst the most wanted newcomers for Smash 4 in Japan (possibly in the A-tier range).
That is pretty much what I saw. Sakurai has probably already decided most of the spots on the roster.
C-Tier
Black Shadow
Starfy
Ghirahim
After that it gets too hazy to do any ranks.
SourceFor a C-tier for requests in Japan, its:
Like in a topic or blog comments section, an A or S character gets more than 10 requests in it. If a character gets lots of requests at one site, but gets barely any requests at another it throws down their rank.
An extreme example of this is Toon Zelda. She was the most requested Zelda character at one site I looked at (getting 5-10 requests), but barely requested anywhere else.
For example, look at this site where you have Lucina/Anna get a decent amount of requests, yet outside this site they are practically unknowns.
Its not a single board. A collection of websites, the comments to a blog, comments to an article, message boards, 2ch, etc.
2ch is probably the worst in terms of comments because it quickly derails into flame wars.
A lot of the sites also got NSFW ads on them.
Probably around 10 sites. As for requests, some sites had like only 50 posts for their "who would like to see in Smash 4 thread" while others literally had thousands (those were a nightmare to look at because sometimes there would be dozens of posts where it was nothing but posters flaming each other).
[collapse=everything else]Its a whole bunch of websites, blogs, and message boards. Not just 2ch. 2ch is full of idiots though.
General
MarioToon Zelda only got a lot of requests at one site I looked at. Elsewhere, she was barely requested. That is why I did not include her in that C-tier I posted. Its basically only Ghirahim that has a consistent showing for requests among Zelda newcomers.
Mewtwo and Roy were the top picks at nearly every site I looked at though, and Dixie Kong always came up quite a bit. Those are the only three of the Forbidden 7 that come up a lot.
I have seen a few mentions of Black Shadow getting Ganondorf's Melee/Brawl moveset. However, their does seem to be more genuine support there for the character than for the West, which mostly stems from the F-Zero anime and Norio Wakamoto's performance as the character.
TingleAs for the Mario characters, the ones that come up are Waluigi, Bowser Jr., Toad, Daisy, Dr. Mario, Geno, Rosalina, Paper Mario, and Boo. Its hard to group them in terms of who got the most requests since they all don't get much at all, but I would say that Waluigi and Bowser Jr. come up more than the others. Lots of people want Dr. Mario back at least as a costume.
ImpaI have never seen Tingle get a lot of requests in Japan, even during pre-Brawl. Toon Link (called "Cat Eyes Link" in Japan during pre-Brawl, was the Zelda character that had the most requests during pre-Brawl).
The second Tingle RPG did not sell in Japan. The Zelda series in general has been selling less and less in Japan outside of the DS titles (maybe that's why Toon Zelda is the runner-up for the Zelda series?).
I don't think I have seen Impa come up once.
Also, I think its important to note that Skyward Sword was the lowest selling 3D Zelda in Japan. Kirby's Return to Dream Land sold much more than it even
New moveset for Ganondorf
Toon LinkYes. Though there are people resistant to such a change as well
TetraThey really like Toon Link. Toon Link was one of their most wanted newcomers for Brawl.
They are worried that he might be cut due to his similarities to regular Link.
KirbyTetra does not come up, its Toon Zelda that does. Also, both Ghirahim and Toon Zelda get less requests than Waddle Dee, and are definitely outside the B-tier in terms of request.
"what do they Japanese say exactly about Mewtwo"Only Kirby characters that come up are Waddle Dee and Gooey. Waddle Dee gets far more requests than any other Kirby character.
Yarn KirbyThat it was a travesty that he was cut to begin with.
Lucario vs ZoroarkI did not see any mention for yarn Kirby.
GenesectIts much less bitter. Lucario has a lot of fans in Japan, and I have not seen any fervent Zoroark fans. Zoroark fans think he will replace Lucario primarily because he has a canine anthropomorphic design like Lucario did and because he was the first Pokemon of his respective generation to get a movie (like Lucario did). I have not seen much arguing between Lucario and Zoroark fans, though I wonder if its because Lucario fans have resigned themselves that he is likely going to be cut.
Jigglypuff...As for Genesect, I really did not see any discussion on him. When he did come up, it was usually posts along the lines of "here are characters I want for Smash 4 *makes a list".
F-ZeroSometimes talk about Jigglypuff being cut does come up, but the consensus seems to be that she is now a staple to the Smash Bros. series.
Samurai Goroh comes up sometimes. However, its usually just Black Shadow due to his prominent role in the F-Zero anime and the fact that Black Shadow was voiced by Norio Wakamoto, a popular voice actor. I have seen the idea of Black Shadow getting Ganondorf's Melee/Brawl moveset thrown around as well.
Black ShadowActually, I did see on one site there were complaints about how F-Zero got shafted in Brawl in terms of content. Just saying that in comparison to other series, F-Zero got less and that it was unfair.
I did not see anything particular though.
You are right though that Black Shadow's performance is impressive though, especially considering the last F-Zero game was in 2004. Really, I don't think Black Shadow has fallen so much as a few characters have risen above him. This was due to new releases such as Kid Icarus Uprising (Palutena), Kirby's Return to Dream Land (Waddle Dee), and Fire Emblem Awakening (Chrom).
FlintThe idea of Black Shadow-dorf comes up, but it seems they really do like Black Shadow over there for different reasons than here (mostly as a replacement for Ganondorf's current moveset).
It seems the reason why they like him is due to his prominent role in the F-Zero anime (which I believe was still being aired on re-runs recently). Also, as you said, it helps a lot that Black Shadow was voiced by a popular voice actor (Norio Wakamoto).
During pre-Brawl, Norio Wakamoto said he would love to reprise his role as Black Shadow for Smash Bros., though mentioned he had not been contacted by Sakurai or Nintendo.
Ike vs ChromI have never seen Flint come up.
RoyIn Japan there are fights between Ike and Chrom supporters. They believe only one of the two is going to get in. Chrom supporters like to say Ike is old news and that he can do both Aether and Quick Draw. Ike supporters counter this by saying that Ike does Aether differently from Chrom and that Chrom having mostly the same abilities as Ike means he is not even worth putting in the first place since he would be a retread of already a popular existing character.
Chrom and Ike both got the mercenary-lord vibe going for them, so that complicates things further.
Dark PitThat re-design was pretty much very well received everywhere. I would be very surprised if that is not the design Sakurai uses for Roy if he comes back.
Dark Pit's fanbase over there is smart enough to understand he would only work as an alternate costume.
"What are the general views on Sonic and Snake? Do they think they should stay or should they leave after 1 game like 3rd party reps in other games?"
Villager/Animal CrossingI don't know. I know they think those two are the most likely to be cut, likely for the reason you stated.
Lots of people like using Snake and Sonic though. In that poll that Sakurai linked to on twitter, Snake is within the Top 12 most popular characters in Brawl.
I would assume there is a lot people that want both of them to stay. As I said earlier, much of the fanbase does not want to see any character from Brawl cut.
Other Xenoblade charactersAnimal Crossing comes up sometimes, but its usually the "Animal Crossing boy/girl". Sakurai pretty much destroyed the hope of a playable Animal Crossing character by labeling it a series too peaceful to have a fighter.
Retro charactersOther Xenoblade characters probably do get mentioned (I am not really familiar with the other characters from that game), but honestly whenever Xenoblade comes up, most of the time its attached to Shulk.
Unfortunately, as I mentioned retro requests are uncommon from what I have seen. Lip and Panel de Pon does not come up much. Lip comes up slightly more than Sukapon and Prince Sabure, but still does not come up much at all. Panel de Pon still has a cult following in Japan, however, Intelligent Systems doing nothing with the series since 2007 might be the main culprit behind the lack of interest for Lip this time.
Takamaru is the most requested retro character, but as I said, retro characters usually don't come up.
Duck Hunt Dog
MiiI have never seen Duck Hunt Dog come up once.
StarfyMiis are uncommon in requests, which is surprising considering how much Wii Sports, Wii Play, Friends Collection, and Wii Fit sold in Japan. I guess the people who buy the Mii games in Japan are different from those who play Smash Bros., or perhaps they feel Miis would not work well in Smash Bros. since they are not defined characters?
Last StoryIts difficult to rank where Starfy is, but he is definitely outside the Top 10, and he is definitely the most wanted "new series" Nintendo character outside of Shulk (Shulk probably being in the Top 5).
Pandoa's TowerLast Story characters definitely do come up. Probably behind Starfy in terms of the "other series", but Last Story discussion happens more often than Golden Sun or Sin & Punishment discussion or characters.
Final FantasyI have seen Ende get mentioned a few times.
Dragon QuestNo, the only Final Fantasy character I see brought up is Cloud unfortunately.
Zangeki no ReginleivSlime comes up. However, other Dragon Quest characters come up more often (Hero or Terry from Dragon Question Monsters). Overall, its really just Mega Man who gets a lot of requests of the third-party characters.
StartropicsYes, I have seen them get mentioned. Very few requests though.
Advance WarsI have never seen StarTropics mentioned once. The games were not even released in Japan, and had no content in Brawl. Its weird considering that the games were developed in Japan too.
Another example of this was Advance Wars: Days of Ruin. That game never got released in Japan either, despite being developed by Intelligent Systems.
SoraNo, I have never seen anything Advance/Famicom Wars come up.
NamcoI already mentioned that Last Story characters get mentions (and that they are more frequent than any characters from Golden Sun or Sin & Punishment).
Requests for Sora actually happen quite a bit, with requests for Cloud happening even more often than Sora. However, as I keep saying the only third-party character that gets a lot of requests is Mega Man.
A lot of the stuff on Tekken and Tales is intelligible because there is a lot of personal insults and flame wars involved. A lot of Japanese forum memes that I don't get understand gets thrown around and a lot of childishness.
Reminds me a lot about GameFAQs.
Pac-Man I don't see come up much. When he does, its basically, "Pac-Man seems to be the most appropriate Namco character they could use for Smash Bros., don't you think?"
Lots of Tales characters names get thrown around, but there is no character they can agree on, and they all flame war each other for supporting a certain character or not having an opinion regarding a certain Tales game.
At least four Tales characters came up. Lloyd, Cless, Yuri, and Asbel.
With Tekken, I know I saw Heihachi and Jin come up.
Bayonetta
CutsI did not see any, though I assume a few Bayonetta mentions probably have happened as a result of the announcement of the sequel being Wii U exclusive.
There is a lot of fear amongst the Japanese Smash Bros. fanbase that Sakurai is going to take a chainsaw to Brawl's roster.
The characters that the Japanese fanbase are worried about being cut are Snake, Sonic, Lucario, Ike, Lucas, Wolf, Toon Link, and Pokemon Trainer.
Keep in mind much of the Japanese Smash Bros. fans don't want anybody to be cut and for Mewtwo and Roy to be brought back.
Heck, there is a sizable minority that pretty much says their hopes for Smash 4 in regards to the roster are for everyone from Brawl to be brought back as well as Mewtwo and Roy, and wants the roster to be balanced extensively and characters to be overhauled, and to call it a day from there.
I already said that Toon Link they are worried about being cut. However, outside of Snake and Sonic, they believe Ike and Lucario are in the most danger of being cut.
I already said that Toon Link they are worried about being cut. However, outside of Snake and Sonic, they believe Ike and Lucario are in the most danger of being cut.
Do the Japanese think there will be different rostersROB is mentioned as a possible candidate for being cut (though seen as less likely to be cut than the third-party characters and Lucario and Ike).
The third-party characters they think stand a chance at being cut are:
Snake
Sonic
Lucario
Ike
Toon Link
Wolf
Lucas
Pokemon Trainer
ROB
However, in general, most of them don't want to see any cuts, though they are expecting them.
I have not seen anything that would suggest they would think the two versions would have different rosters.
Does Japan think about us?
I have seen the Japanese fanbase refer to the Western fanbase in regards to Ridley, Little Mac, and Punch-Out being popular outside their country.
On character hateAs I said in my opening post, there are Japanese Smash Bros. fans that mention that Ridley and Little Mac are extremely popular outside their country. If regular fans recognize this, I am sure Sakurai is aware as well, especially considering the higher-ups at Nintendo know that Metroid and Punch-Out mostly have a Western fanbase.
The last pollI have not seen much character hate for anyone.
However, there are some people who are like "just bring back everyone from Brawl plus Mewtwo and Roy, then I'm good as Smash 4's roster is concerned."
There are much less characters that get a lot of support in Japan than there are in the West.
I think this may have been a factor in Sakurai thinking that a "bigger roster" should not be the focus this time
DLCLast time I did this Palutena, Chrom, and Waddle Dee had barely any support, so things do change when there is a major new release.
Anime CharactersI have not seen talk about DLC. However, if character DLC does happen (and that is a big if), I would expect any characters cut from Melee or Brawl to be at the top of the list for DLC. However, I am not sure how feasible character DLC for Smash 4 is considering how much limited space there is for the 3DS.
I think its worth noting that notched-ear Pichu was basically the mascot for the HeartGold/SoulSilver games.
[/collapse]Doraemon, Goku (and other DBZ characters), Naruto, Luffy, Ichigo from Bleach, Gundam characters, and one site there were a lot of people talking about "Magical Girl Lyrical Nanaho"?
I think that was most of them. I am very unfamiliar with anime so, any names that were not of game characters, I kind of just glossed over.
Some other findings, Cutousy of Groose
I've been getting into Japanese Smash speculation recently. I found an interesting "wiki" dedicated to the game; it's very brief and not particularly detailed, but it does have an interesting "participation chance" section. I suspect that it hasn't been edited by a large community; this could be just a single, random Japanese person. Still, that's better than nothing, eh? Here's the link, but if you don't know any Japanese, here's my helpful summary:
Their likely suspects:
Chrom: Awakening popularity and stage make him very likely.
Dixie Kong: The one-two punch of Tropical Freeze and Forbidden Seven makes her a likely suspect, in blogger's eyes.
Mewtwo: They say that he's basically confirmed... and then hopes that this is more than wishful thinking.
Zoroark: Oddly enough, they don't even give him his own paragraph like all of the other characters... his name is just sitting there by itself. Huh.
Kid Icarus Newcomer: This section is difficult for me to read... they mention the series has exploded and may be in line for someone, but that's really all I can make out. They seem to be saying that the franchise may be a bit unknown, or perhaps they're saying they don't really know the franchise. I think it's the latter. Sorry, limited Japanese at work.
Little Mac: Cites stage and assist trophy status. Oddly doesn't mention Western popularity, but this could be an oversight.
Takamaru: They're really high on this guy in chance and want. Nintendoland Music cited, Nintendoland cited, 1986 group cited. They say he's the "most obvious" Retro character.
The other mentioned, but dismissed characters:
Toad and Bowser Jr. They have pretty solid popularity, but aren't likely. No real reasons for their unlikely status are given.
Geno. They state that his copyright issues strike him down cold.
King K. Rool. They note he's really the last major villain left outside of maybe Ridley or Porky and would make for great cutscenes (which it mentions in an edit aren't going to be included), but just is outclassed by Dixie's Forbidden 7 status and Tropical Freeze appearence.
Dark Samus. They just straight out use the Japanese word for "unnecessary."
Ridley: They don't give him his own paragraph like the others; he is mentioned in K.Rool's paragraph, however, as being a major, unrepresented villain. However, they also mention that Metroid is a low-profile franchise.
Krystal: Whoever wrote it has a dislike for Krystal and seems to ask Sakurai not to put her in addition to predicting he won't do so because she doesn't compare to the others. My limited Japanese admittedly may be interfering with my translation here.
Leon is also given a mention, but is dismissed.
Ashley: They say she's clearly the most popular WarioWare character and say she's one of the most popular female characters.They also cite her overseas popularity and the ease it would take to create her compared to some others. The writer also expresses desire to see her... but just doesn't think a Wario character is likely, and does mention Jimmy T as another possible contender.
Black Shadow: They say that they think only Falcon will make it, but do mention Shadow has popularity.
Lip: They cite the item as a help, but say she's just too unknown, especially overseas.
Isaac: They cite his foreign popularity, but say that he's a relative unknown in Japan.
Miis: They bring up an interesting posssibility: Mii Masks will be available for Villager as they are in Animal Crossing. They say that Miis themselves kind of missed the boat in Brawl and their lack of arms could cause problems.
Balloon Fighter: They cite Villager in the same way we do.
Dragon Quest Character: They say there's no obvious choice, no overseas popularity, and seemingly no connection like with Snake.
Tails: They use the same "special case" argument that we do.
Zelda Newcomer: No obvious choice and the franchise is well enough represented.
Kirby Newcomer: "No other character is equal to Meta Knight and King Dedede." Sorry, Waddle Dee fans... his name didn't even come up.
Their likely suspects:
Chrom: Awakening popularity and stage make him very likely.
Dixie Kong: The one-two punch of Tropical Freeze and Forbidden Seven makes her a likely suspect, in blogger's eyes.
Mewtwo: They say that he's basically confirmed... and then hopes that this is more than wishful thinking.
Zoroark: Oddly enough, they don't even give him his own paragraph like all of the other characters... his name is just sitting there by itself. Huh.
Kid Icarus Newcomer: This section is difficult for me to read... they mention the series has exploded and may be in line for someone, but that's really all I can make out. They seem to be saying that the franchise may be a bit unknown, or perhaps they're saying they don't really know the franchise. I think it's the latter. Sorry, limited Japanese at work.
Little Mac: Cites stage and assist trophy status. Oddly doesn't mention Western popularity, but this could be an oversight.
Takamaru: They're really high on this guy in chance and want. Nintendoland Music cited, Nintendoland cited, 1986 group cited. They say he's the "most obvious" Retro character.
The other mentioned, but dismissed characters:
Toad and Bowser Jr. They have pretty solid popularity, but aren't likely. No real reasons for their unlikely status are given.
Geno. They state that his copyright issues strike him down cold.
King K. Rool. They note he's really the last major villain left outside of maybe Ridley or Porky and would make for great cutscenes (which it mentions in an edit aren't going to be included), but just is outclassed by Dixie's Forbidden 7 status and Tropical Freeze appearence.
Dark Samus. They just straight out use the Japanese word for "unnecessary."
Ridley: They don't give him his own paragraph like the others; he is mentioned in K.Rool's paragraph, however, as being a major, unrepresented villain. However, they also mention that Metroid is a low-profile franchise.
Krystal: Whoever wrote it has a dislike for Krystal and seems to ask Sakurai not to put her in addition to predicting he won't do so because she doesn't compare to the others. My limited Japanese admittedly may be interfering with my translation here.
Leon is also given a mention, but is dismissed.
Ashley: They say she's clearly the most popular WarioWare character and say she's one of the most popular female characters.They also cite her overseas popularity and the ease it would take to create her compared to some others. The writer also expresses desire to see her... but just doesn't think a Wario character is likely, and does mention Jimmy T as another possible contender.
Black Shadow: They say that they think only Falcon will make it, but do mention Shadow has popularity.
Lip: They cite the item as a help, but say she's just too unknown, especially overseas.
Isaac: They cite his foreign popularity, but say that he's a relative unknown in Japan.
Miis: They bring up an interesting posssibility: Mii Masks will be available for Villager as they are in Animal Crossing. They say that Miis themselves kind of missed the boat in Brawl and their lack of arms could cause problems.
Balloon Fighter: They cite Villager in the same way we do.
Dragon Quest Character: They say there's no obvious choice, no overseas popularity, and seemingly no connection like with Snake.
Tails: They use the same "special case" argument that we do.
Zelda Newcomer: No obvious choice and the franchise is well enough represented.
Kirby Newcomer: "No other character is equal to Meta Knight and King Dedede." Sorry, Waddle Dee fans... his name didn't even come up.