I apologize for this long ass post, I needed to go in depth, so don't die from old age before you finish reading it.
I don't have much of a sense of a neutral, I realise. You're right, I do force things. I try to force a lot of openings into certain combos, and I don't really know what's the proper alternative to it. I do a lot of crashing into things, but I also think it's part of simply not executing what I want properly. Most of the time I just want to whiff punish off of dash dancing, but the endlag on some moves (like Falco, Ness & Kirby's F-Air) confuses me and I end up getting punished. And I don't think it's always as simple as run in and shield, like it was in the previous game
I definitely get what you are saying here, it's just that Ultimate nerfed that play style rather hard. It worked in 4, because jump squats were laggier, aerials had a bit more endlag to them, and shields were strong and could be used to shutdown aerial spam. The big issue I think with doing this in Ultimate, is aggressive options like punishing usually have a bit of movement at the start(dash, jump, DI, etc). That means there will always be a bit of a delay before your attack can come out, given you need to traverse the small bit of space between you and your opponent. This might have been easier in 4, given aerials had more lag, but quicker jump squats and lagless aerials, means a smaller window of punish, which means that small delay in traversing that space, could be significant in whether you can make the punish or not.
Your opponent can buffer a frame 3 jump as soon as they land and be in the air again, by the time you make it there. In other words, your cutting things incredibly close and any slight delay, could mean an extra frame or two that will allow your opponent back in the air. I just don't think it's feasible to play like this anymore, especially now that shields are useless to the point that even Smash attacks can be safe on them. Parries will help, but are high risk and some moves are safe even on parry.
In theory, this should have made things less campy, but in practice, everything being so safe means everyone being afraid to commit, which means it's more optimal to just camp and spam aerials until your opponent commits. Basically, it came full circle and even though there is a lot of movement, there is little actual action. There is little incentive to commit and you don't really risk much simply camping and waiting for your opponent to commit. There is also an incredibly high reward off of those safe spammy attacks, like Yoshi's eggs or Pichu's Thunderbolt(?), which can get them 50%+ and possibly a stock. It really is Smash 4, just offensive camping instead of defensive camping, if that makes sense. And unlike Smash 4, the rewards are higher, the risks are lower, and it is much safer to fish for a kill than before.
That might sound contradictory, but what I'm saying is, aggressive attacks and commits like punishing or rushing are risky, passive attacks like projectiles or aerial spam are not. There is literally no reason to ever want to commit. You can't really time your opponent out, with the rules usually being around 6-8 minutes, it's way too easy for an opponent to chip away at you for that to really be a thing. Lots of KO moves are fairly safe, so even trying to punish those is difficult.
So I think what you really need, is a fundamental change in your strategy. Rather than trying to bait whiffs, you need to instead force approaches. Not by baiting, but by limiting space and backing your opponent against the ledge. I think spacing and stage control is incredibly important now, possibly more than any other Smash game. The only real way you are going to get an opponent to commit, is if they have their back against the wall(ledge), and need to take back some space. Trying to attack them directly, what with attacks being so safe, mobility being so high, air-dodges having no endlag if you do it into the ground, jumps being so quick, is next to impossible to do safely and without taking a lot of damage yourself.
And this is where Phantom can help quite a bit. I think you might have been soured on Phantom from watching bad Zelda players. It's not really a camp and pray it will hit tool. It's quite literally something that fights alongside Zelda and is an extension of her will. Use it to cover approaches and force your opponent back against the ledge. There isn't, and I'll say it again for emphasis,
there isn't any safe options the vast majority of the cast, and I
mean outside of like a few characters, has to counter Phantom. Reflectors can be baited with it, counters that travel the stage can be shielded, and projectiles can be avoided with an aerial charge or learning the Phantom displacement tech. Nearly every option your opponent can possibly take, will hurt them in some way.
Sword characters and a lot of top tier characters are dominant, not just because they can aerial spam large disjointed hitboxs and wall their opponents out, but also because they can use those wide sweeping hitboxs to cover lots of options and space at the same time. In other words, they can combat the problems with Ultimate's mechanics in ways a lot of other characters can't, by having moves or mobility that covers lots of area at once, general purpose moves that do lots of different tasks and can be spammed safely and easily(Ike's Nair, Wolf's laser, Lucina's everything).
Zelda in contrast, doesn't really have any general purpose moves like that. All of her moves have specific purposes, for specific situations. In other words, her hitboxs are too small and precise to cover lots of area or options. You mentioned using Nair as an approach tool and while that is good, you probably noticed it's not very effective against aerials that out range it, like Ness's Fair. You could time and micro space it at very specific angles to avoid that, but that is a lot to ask of the player and isn't something the player is going to be able to keep up and do all the time. You might also try and do it off of reads, but that's a lot of options to cover and sheer probability is going to get you eventually.
Phantom is that general purpose tool. It covers so much space, sometimes over half the stage and is incredibly intimidating, even to skilled opponents. The partial charges are situational and have endlag to them, but the full charge is always useful in every context. The thing that a lot of Zelda players miss, is that Zelda herself needs to be used in tandem. You don't just stand there and wait for it to hit, you position yourself for a follow up, while avoiding any preemptive attacks from your opponent. Anytime your opponent is camping, jumping, retreating, or otherwise giving you time, is when you can fully charge it. There is no reason not to and it severely limits your opponent's options. You are
far safer with it at your back, than if you would approach normally. You can do exactly what you always do when you approach, just your opponent will now be distracted by two attacks.
If you're still skeptical, try applying what happens when you use it to ledge trap, to neutral. Your opponent only has a few options and if you get the read, you can punish big time. If your opponent jumps or air-dodges, you can Nair, LK, or Up-air. If your opponent rolls you can dash attack/grab, LK or Up-B out of a run. If they shield, you can grab or do a shield break combo/pressure shield. If they try to preemptively attack, you can shield or do some other counter and open up the chance to combo into or from Phantom. If they back off and retreat, move up and repeat the process until they can no longer retreat. And if they parry or use some very specific anti Phantom tool(really high jumps + high mobility(Greninja), a very monstrous level of an attribute(Yoshi's aerial game)) at least you won't lose much, if anything.
I know it seems difficult and intimidating to learn how to use Phantom in neutral, but I think the payoff will be immensely worth it. It's not as difficult as it looks and once you understand the spacing, it is fairly easy to use and get impromptu combos. From now on, just try fully charging it anytime your opponent backs off and gives you enough space to do so. After fully charging it, just do what you normally do and while noting how your opponent reacts. After enough times of doing this, you'll get used to the patterns of opponent reactions and can then experiment with different responses. Phantom isn't a camping tool, it is an aggressive attack, so you're not camping with it, you are pressing the attack.
I really think exploring all options available, will be beneficial to you. From what I've seen and heard of your advantage and disadvantage state, they are pretty amazing and have clearly carried you to high placing at your local, despite your poor neutral. I think you have the potential to become a really good player if you fix your neutral, so I would encourage you to explore new things, even if they don't seem immediately beneficial or appealing to you.
- Safer alternative for landing D-Tilt? I think I've managed to low profile against a few falling aerials. That's about all I can think of, unless maybe the usual shield pokes I go for (but never just randomly throwing it out there, or at least not making a habit out of it).
- Same for D-Air? D-Air OoS always sounded like a good suggestion. Stuff like punishing a getup or jump attack from the ledge. I use this move a lot as an approach mixup, but also have a tendency of getting punished because I land with it too much.
- Not sure what to say about grabs.
Other than the Phantom I just spent nearly the entire post plugging, that would really depend on the situation.
D-Tilt feels more like a move you use to catch your opponent sleeping or in shield and isn't easy to land in neutral, given how short it is. It might be best to use it more as a punish than an approach, although to be honest nearly every situation I can think of, can just as easily be done with Fair/Up-B. Maybe use it against short characters like Pichu. I personally don't use it enough to really have any satisfying answers.
Dair can be used OoS on smaller characters that LK would pass over, but won't hit really small hurtboxs shifts, like Kirby D-Tilt. You likely won't be hitting the sweet-spot, but it is ok for escaping things like Pichu F-Tilt pressure. It can also be used to punish reflectors baited from Phantom, if you're not confident they won't shield an Up-B. Can also be used after hopping a charge when you're trapped at the ledge, if you aren't confident you can land a fast fall LK.
Pivot grab is good and can catch landings after avoiding the landing aerial, but otherwise just grab when they shield.