Fighting a Falco that approaches is a dead even matchup, maybe slightly in our favor.
If the Falco is dead set on just shooting lasers and phantasm'ing through you when you approach, it's a pretty distinct disadvantage for us. The fact of the matter is that you just can't catch him.
I'd say Lucario's best tool in any matchup is his Aura Sphere, which makes Falco a very unfortunate matchup because of the reflector. Seeing as how it comes out on frame 1, there is hardly -any- room to catch him with one unless he is recovering, in which case only larger aura spheres will hit him through a phantasm. If Falco uses upB in any situation, he's as good as dead anyway. The first thing you need to do if he does use upB is grab the ledge.
Beware of Falco's ability to dodge. His spotdodge and roll are quite good, and he can spotdodge to grab quicker than you might think. If you want to punish his spotdodge, get really good at using Dsmash, or go the simple way and use Forward+A to Fsmash instead of your c-stick. Using the button layout over the stick gives you a bit more of a startup time, which is soooo beneficial against people who like to spotdodge.
Falco can chaingrab/pillar every character in the game if you're fighting someone who knows what they're doing. If what Kismet told me is true (and I remember correctly), Falco can do 3 CG's, and D-air, and there is a small frame where you can roll away before he grabs you again. You MUST. Be. WARY of this, though, and make sure he doesn't hit you with it. Else you're going to start off with an 80% handicap, just like the rest of the cast.
Also. Do -not- forget about Falco's best close-up move, Jab. It comes out in 2 (two) frames and has a ridiculous priority set to it. Needless to say, if Falco gets in a jab against you, roll away as soon as you can or else you're going to get grabbed, or other bad tidings will come upon you.
Beware of getting edgeguarded by Falco. Like most characters, and smart players, people can just hold on to the ledge until you get back on the stage and punish your landing lag with it. MASTER THE NO-LAG EXTREMESPEED in order to avoid this! I can't stress this enough. Anyone who has fought a not-******** Snake knows exactly what I'm talking about. Also, off-stage, Falco can fall and B-air and still recover while you're dying, but if you're not dead, he will be. I've not seen any Falcos but Kismet doing this. However, he can also jump and B-air, just like they do in Melee.