The Fall of Empires - Will America be the modern day Roman Empire?

[Grass]

I recently asked the Smash 4 Gen. Discussion thread about the fall of the gaming industry, and as many of you guys know. The industry has become somewhat of an empire and a large portion of our daily lives. But this also got me thinking about how people have talked about empires in the past like the U.S. Now, when I talk about the fall of an empire, I'm not talking about the end of the world killing a society. I'm talking about an empire killing itself due to circumstances like lack of water/too much warring/etc. The Roman Empire eventually fell due to an invasion, but before said invasion the empire was already suffering from instability. Now, let's look at the U.S.

We are far from the great nation we once were. With the 2008 economic banking collapse, the 8 years of the Bush administration over spending in their war budget in Iraq, and many other poor financial decisions over the years. America once had a Great Depression back in 1929. And then when Obama was in office, we had a Great Recession. Some find this morbidly ironic that our country would have 2 recessions within the span of 80 or so years. One the one hand you could say we didn't learn from history, and on the other hand you could blame the Bush administration, but what it really boils down to is poor financial decisions. Fast forward to 2015, recently Chinese markets had a pretty big crash. Even though it didn't truly affect our overall economy, it gave most Americans a pretty big scare watching the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 fall the way it did. I mean, can you imagine if you woke up one morning, turned on the TV and you saw that the Stock Market had almost completely crashed? It would scare people to death because they would think their hard earned money literally went down the drain. On top of that, in recent times. California has been dealing with a water shortage, which I'm sure a lot of people are aware of. No water means people will be leaving this state. This could be a thing for many other states if we don't start using water wisely. I'm sure you guys have thought about this and thought maybe this is the end of the world. But from where I see it. It's just the beginning of the end of an empire.

Now, I wanna hear your thoughts on if you think these examples or other examples may eventually lead to the end of the so-called "U.S. Empire".

 

[Capita]

you could blame the Bush administration

That's actually a common misconception. The Bush tax cuts had little to nothing to do with the recession. It was the federal reserve's bad policies, setting artificially low interest rates to the housing market which is why the housing bubble crashed.

This is honestly a really good topic by the way. A political analyst (whose name has escaped my mind) compared sovereign states to biological cells whose life-times have a set limit and are bound to collapse. Best examples are things such as the Roman empire, the U.S.S.R., and Nazi Germany to name a few. Is the American empire one of them? We have a massive amount of influence around the world, financially and militarily since we have created a military empire with our foreign bases all around the world.

What I think will cause the collapse of the United States is our national debt. As time goes on, our debt is going to accumulate to a very unsustainable amount, but while we theoretically should be in financial trouble in that scenario, our world reserve currency status would keep us from too much trouble. That is unless another currency becomes the world reserve currency.

As I see it, it would have to take a financial disaster for America to collapse, and I only see that happening with an unsustainable amount of debt along with the Yuan taking over as the world reserve currency, but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

 

[Grass]

People have predicted that maybe a nuclear war with terrorists or financial collapse will be the end of America. But the way I see it, is that we have multiple end games from where our societal decline might happen. I was watching history channel a while back and I remember seeing like 5 or 6 people, mostly analysts, talking about the possible things that might literally break this country. One person said water, one person said financial collapse, one person said nuclear fallout (he gave evidence of how easy it was to obtain nuclear fuel), one person said lack of food or general resources, and one person said (if we live that long) the rise of AI and robotics taking over humanity. Now I know, doomsday is just a scenario that may or may not happen at all. But these are all threats are possible within our current life span. I like your comparison of societies to cells and their life span. Maybe this is just how things are and always will be. Such as life, there is limitations. However, I do believe, if we can transcend these problems, there may be a future for us.

 

[the.tok]

All empires fall one day, so of course the US won't stay the wealthiest nation forever. They will probably even come a time were the US don't exist anymore, just like every other nation.

That being said, I do not see that happening anytime soon, for several reasons.

The first is the US military power is just too overwhelming.
Nobody can oppose the US because it is basically suicide if war comes into play. I see no other country that can invade another on their own for absolutely no reason, be done in a few weeks and have the whole international community look the other way and pretend that nothing happened. And terrorism is negligible in that aspect.

The second is that US has above average relationship with the other powers.
Basically, when the US has decided something, it takes 80% of the rest of the world united to oppose them. That will likely never happen, unless they accumulate a lot of diplomatical mistakes (Bush sure did a bunch of them, but he didn't stay long enough to properly deteriorate US image). That plus UK is a puppet.

The third is the status of the dollar. As a reference currency, US has a lot of control over its debt and change rates, plus cannot go bankrupt. And who would dare to tell the US "give me my money back right now"?
No country is in position to do so.

 

[Grass]

All empires fall one day, so of course the US won't stay the wealthiest nation forever. They will probably even come a time were the US don't exist anymore, just like every other nation.

That being said, I do not see that happening anytime soon, for several reasons.

The first is the US military power is just too overwhelming.
Nobody can oppose the US because it is basically suicide if war comes into play. I see no other country that can invade another on their own for absolutely no reason, be done in a few weeks and have the whole international community look the other way and pretend that nothing happened. And terrorism is negligible in that aspect.

The second is that US has above average relationship with the other powers.
Basically, when the US has decided something, it takes 80% of the rest of the world united to oppose them. That will likely never happen, unless they accumulate a lot of diplomatical mistakes (Bush sure did a bunch of them, but he didn't stay long enough to properly deteriorate US image). That plus UK is a puppet.

The third is the status of the dollar. As a reference currency, US has a lot of control over its debt and change rates, plus cannot go bankrupt. And who would dare to tell the US "give me my money back right now"?
No country is in position to do so.

Okay, I'm going to have to break this down piece by piece.

The first is the US military power is just too overwhelming.
Nobody can oppose the US because it is basically suicide if war comes into play. I see no other country that can invade another on their own for absolutely no reason, be done in a few weeks and have the whole international community look the other way and pretend that nothing happened. And terrorism is negligible in that aspect.

An invasion may not be possible, but back in July we did have 2 Russian bombers sent to California. And previously, the also sent 2 bombers to Alaskan air space few years before. So, yes, an invasion isn't impossible, but it will definitely cause problems with diplomatic relations. As for terrorism, I think Americans are too comfortable with the idea that we are 100% safe from terrorism. I think the whole of the NSA watching people's phones and sending drones around the US to keep tabs on it's citizens has proven one thing. And that one thing is that the American government or it's citizens doesn't feel safe with terrorism in the US. It's pretty obvious that Americans are still very scared of terrorist in the US and while we try to deny this, deep down we realize how scary the world is right now.

The second is that US has above average relationship with the other powers.
Basically, when the US has decided something, it takes 80% of the rest of the world united to oppose them. That will likely never happen, unless they accumulate a lot of diplomatical mistakes (Bush sure did a bunch of them, but he didn't stay long enough to properly deteriorate US image). That plus UK is a puppet.

This may be true, but relationships change over the course of time. Just like your friends change over the years. We've had a few mistakes, over the years. However, in recent times, China and it's economics has thrown somewhat of a monkey wrench into the issues of relations between countries like Japan. I think the biggest issue is that we still have a big issue trusting other countries.

The third is the status of the dollar. As a reference currency, US has a lot of control over its debt and change rates, plus cannot go bankrupt. And who would dare to tell the US "give me my money back right now"?
No country is in position to do so.

The USD has only just recently gained power. Since the year 2000, the USD's power declined giving rise to the Japanese Yen, the Chinese Yuan, and the Euro. Only recently has the Euro seen a decline in currency power. It's slow, but the Euro is slowly declining in power. The Chinese Yuan will most likely overtake both the Euro and the Dollar. The US has no control over exchange rates. Rates rise and drop over the course of how a country's economy does in comparison to other country's economy. And while it's true that we can't "truly" go bankrupt, you make the U.S. seem like a bully. That's never been the case. American society has been declining for many many years, but it's only recently that we see this decline with tangible evidence.

 

[the.tok]

An invasion may not be possible, but back in July we did have 2 Russian bombers sent to California. And previously, the also sent 2 bombers to Alaskan air space few years before. So, yes, an invasion isn't impossible, but it will definitely cause problems with diplomatic relations.

Don't fear, compared to the US, Russian army is nothing at all. Attacking / messing with the US is suicide, everyone knows that.

Even Putin is not stupid enough to do it. He does like to tease though because it makes him popular at home. His ambition is more focused on former USSR territory.

As for terrorism, I think Americans are too comfortable with the idea that we are 100% safe from terrorism. I think the whole of the NSA watching people's phones and sending drones around the US to keep tabs on it's citizens has proven one thing. And that one thing is that the American government or it's citizens doesn't feel safe with terrorism in the US. It's pretty obvious that Americans are still very scared of terrorist in the US and while we try to deny this, deep down we realize how scary the world is right now.

To me terrorism is a scarescrow. The US citizens may not feel safe, but that is entirely irrationnal. The number of American people dying because of terrorism is statistically irrelevant. Like what : 20 a year? For sure, it is less than 10% than the number of people killed by US police. I am more scared of US police than of terrorism ;-)

Terrorism is only a serious problem for people living in Afghanistan or Irak. Not for US.

This may be true, but relationships change over the course of time. Just like your friends change over the years. We've had a few mistakes, over the years. However, in recent times, China and it's economics has thrown somewhat of a monkey wrench into the issues of relations between countries like Japan. I think the biggest issue is that we still have a big issue trusting other countries.

You have a point there. But I believe that it would take serious diplomatic mess up from the US to alienate all the allies and good relationships built in the past century. it can happen, but it would be a slow process. And I think US foreign image is actually getting better recently.
Now we can't discount that a new president being awful at foreign politics could make this turn very quickly. But he wouldn't be allowed to be elected right? :-)

The Chinese Yuan will most likely overtake both the Euro and the Dollar

It is very unlikely in the near future, as it is not a fully convertible money.
I think the dollar being a reference currency really is a big advantage, and the US will never allow this to change, except for extreme circumstances (and they're right). more than 60% of foreign exchange are in dollar.

you make the U.S. seem like a bully. That's never been the case

I may have been misunderstood then, or I don't fully understand the implication of the term "bully". I don't mean that they threaten to steal money or anything.

I just mean that they are the dominating power, that they know it, and that they take advantage of it as every other country in the same position has ever done.
Being in bad terms with the US is a very dangerous position to be in, nobody wants to be in that position. Look what happened to Iran economically. Most countries prefer to be on US side than on the other side.

 

[Grass]

Don't fear, compared to the US, Russian army is nothing at all. Attacking / messing with the US is suicide, everyone knows that.

Even Putin is not stupid enough to do it. He does like to tease though because it makes him popular at home. His ambition is more focused on former USSR territory.

Okay, I may not understand politics 100% but I don't think Russia is any circumstance to attack the U.S. Since the incident with Turkey, Russia has been making poorer and poorer political decisions with foreign relations. I'm not entirely sure why Putin would send bombers to the US since I'm sure he knows we are very much aware of who and what is entering U.S. Airspace.

To me terrorism is a scarescrow. The US citizens may not feel safe, but that is entirely irrationnal. The number of American people dying because of terrorism is statistically irrelevant. Like what : 20 a year? For sure, it is less than 10% than the number of people killed by US police. I am more scared of US police than of terrorism ;-)

Terrorism is only a serious problem for people living in Afghanistan or Irak. Not for US.

Okay, let's assume for the sake of argument that what you say is correct. Let's say that terrorism is a scare tactic for the US and the rest of the world. Let's assume that this is only happens in the middle east (which this clearly doesn't), and let's assume that this is all some plot by governments around the world into sending a message for the rest of humanity that we are ****ed or something.

What is the gain in all this? What is the point of stacking dead American or European bodies or any bodies for that matter. And before you claim this is an economic gain, this is not. That would be extremely ignorant on your part. Trading human lives for money is not only a stupid and cruel waste of resources for a country or a nation, it is moronic.

It is very unlikely in the near future, as it is not a fully convertible money.
I think the dollar being a reference currency really is a big advantage, and the US will never allow this to change, except for extreme circumstances (and they're right). more than 60% of foreign exchange are in dollar.

Again, the US has no control over how currencies in the world are exchanged; That is an economic factor which can and will change based how trade works over in those countries compared to the rest of the Western world. China has proven (with money and trade and power) that the Yuan will be the next currency which rises to the top.

Being in bad terms with the US is a very dangerous position to be in, nobody wants to be in that position. Look what happened to Iran economically. Most countries prefer to be on US side than on the other side.

Yes, let's look at what happened to the Iranian economy over the years. Let's look at some evidence of this.


http://www.economist.com/news/middl...looking-beyond-falling-oil-prices-and-limping

Please show some evidence next time you decide to make a claim. I would also encourage @Budget Player Cadet_ to take a look at this as well.

 

[the.tok]

Okay, I may not understand politics 100% but I don't think Russia is any circumstance to attack the U.S. Since the incident with Turkey, Russia has been making poorer and poorer political decisions with foreign relations. I'm not entirely sure why Putin would send bombers to the US since I'm sure he knows we are very much aware of who and what is entering U.S. Airspace.

Then we agree that this is no serious threat. Though I fail to understand all of Putin's actions lately, I'm sure he's not stupid. I guess the reason must be interior, and then non-understandable for us non-russians.

Okay, let's assume for the sake of argument that what you say is correct. Let's say that terrorism is a scare tactic for the US and the rest of the world. Let's assume that this is only happens in the middle east (which this clearly doesn't), and let's assume that this is all some plot by governments around the world into sending a message for the rest of humanity that we are ****ed or something.

What is the gain in all this? What is the point of stacking dead American or European bodies or any bodies for that matter. And before you claim this is an economic gain, this is not. That would be extremely ignorant on your part. Trading human lives for money is not only a stupid and cruel waste of resources for a country or a nation, it is moronic.

Wow wow, I never ever said or implied that terrorism is part of some kind of plot, nor that governments were actively part of it! That is nonsense O_o
Terrorism is real, I just said that it is irrational for US citizens to be scared of it because it is negligible as a cause of death. They are far from being the most exposed to terrorism.

Talking about the ins and outs of terrorism would be too long, and that would dilute the discussion IMO

Clearly, US has nothing to gain in terrorism, but doesn't lose much either. My point was that this is not a relevant factor to analyze wether / at which rate US power is decreasing.

Again, the US has no control over how currencies in the world are exchanged; That is an economic factor which can and will change based how trade works over in those countries compared to the rest of the Western world. China has proven (with money and trade and power) that the Yuan will be the next currency which rises to the top

I see your point, and I think you could be right, but I don't believe in it.
My reasoning is that the Yuan not being fully convertible (and being convertible in any way only recently) is a signal that China would rather keep some kind of control on the Yuan than let it replace the dollar as the standard currency.

I really think that the dollar is too far ahead, and that it would take a long time for any other currency to compete. And China power is rising, but it will soon have a lot of interior problem to settle, and that will probably slow its rise. The GDP per capita is still quite low compared to the other developped counrties, a large part of the territory has few infrastructures, the political system will have to change, the backlash of the only-child policy will hit them soon... a lot of challenges awaits them. Overthrowing the US is not for tommorrow IMO


And about the article you linked, I read it, and though it states that there were other factors beyond sanctions that held Iran, it still had an impact, so ... (and well... the economist isn't exactly a serious newspaper :-) I read it as my flatmate buys it, it is very oriented, particularly anti-french and anti-socialism. I consider it more as a propaganda newspaper)
I know for a fact that Peugeot specifically had to withdraw from Iran because the restrictions were preventing them from doing proper business.