Is it just me, or is it a little too early to be discussing things like this?
No, not really considering how 9 of the 14 new characters in Brawl were heavily wanted in Melee or left on the cutting room floor according to interviews or rumors that have some evidence behind them.
Wario- Was the third most wanted Mario character in Melee poll while Bowser and Peach were first and second. There was also a rumor that Wario was replaced by Dr. Mario as a clone character because Sakurai didn't want to insult the fans and knew better of his unique qualities.
Wolf- Was the third most wanted Star Fox character in the Melee poll with Falco and Slippy ahead of him. Wolf was rumored to have been planned to be a character ALT for Fox similar to Daisy but, like with Wario, Sakurai believed this would greatly upset the fans. This is somehwhat supported by how Wolf appears in the Melee's opening and how he doesn't have a trophy.
Diddy Kong- Was the third most wanted Rare character in Melee behind James Bond and Banjo/Kazooie. Rumored to have been removed due to problems with Rare caused by Nintendo's plan to sell them to Microsoft. This is somewhat supported by how he doesn't have a trophy while K. Rool and Dixie do.
Pokemon Trainer/Red- Was the third most wanted Pokemon character in the Melee poll with Mewtwo and Mew ahead of him. It is heavily speculated that he was left out both for technical complications and how the Pokemon franchise already had four reps.
Pit- Only recieved five votes in the Melee poll but it should be kept in mind that the Ice Climbers only had four. Sakurai himself confessed himself that he was left on the cutting room floor because of the complication they had making "flying" characters.
King Dedede- Was the most voted for character in the Kirby category and also the fourth most popular character overall. Sakurai confessed in an interview following Melee that he was left out of that and the original because he didn't want to put to much focus on his own characters.
Metaknight- Was the third most voted for character in the Kirby category behind "a random helper." He was left on the cutting room floor for the same reasons as King Dedede and Pit according to Sakurai.
Sonic- Was the third most voted for third party character behind Chocobo and Doramon (... don't ask...). In an interview in 2003, Naka confirmed that Sonic was considered for Melee but was left on the cutting room floor due to time constraints and how his addition at the time seemed "inappropriate."
Snake- Didn't appear in the Melee poll. In an interview with Kojima, he admits that he tried very hard to have Snake appear in Melee but had the same problems as Sonic.
In the end, 5 of these characters (Wario, King Dedede, Metaknight, Diddy, and Pokemon Trainer) were in the top 20.
From how I see it, 3 of these 14 characters was added out of "oligation."
Lucario- Represents the most recent Pokemon generation much like Pichu did in Melee and that's pretty much why Pichu got the boot.
Ike- Was the most recent FE lord when Brawl started production in October 2005. Roy's game wasn't even released yet when Melee came out but the arguement remains valid.
ROB- Falls in the same category as Game and Watch, a WTF character and a character from games that most people haven't even played.
With that said, the only genuinely contemporary fan request that made it was Captain Olimar but, then again, he was the only major Miyamoto franchise that didn't have a rep yet...
This is how this corresponds to Sakurai's journal in terms of characters who were mentioned more then twice:
Geno (5 mentions)
King Dedede (5 mentions)
Ike (4 mentions)
Diddy Kong (4 mentions)
Ridley (4 mentions)
Krystal (3 mentions)
Wind Waker Link (3 mentions)
Takamaru (3 mentions)
Captain Olimar (3 mentions)
The more that I think about it the more I realise that Sakurai and his staff had their heads stuck in the past more then anything else and really didn't listen to today's fans as much as we thought. With this being said, most of the next game's roster will probably consist of characters that people wanted in Brawl along with someon to represent the most recent pokemon generation, someone to represent the most recent Fire Emblem game, and a character completely out of left field for gimmick purposes.
