The New Mario Match-Up Index

[Matador]

40:60's are completely winnable by being slightly better than your opponent. Having nothing worse than 40:60's with top tier opponents would mean there would be more Mario "champions", like with Sonic, Ike or Yoshi. I'm not even saying those characters don't have matchups worse than 40:60 because I'm pretty sure they do. Yet they can place decent, something Marios haven't really been able to do.

What? No, this is incorrect.

The emergence of "champions", as you call them, amongst mains of a particular character has more to do with the skill of the players that chose to main those characters. If M2K decided that he were to main Mario, he'd do well (not as well as he does now, but he'd make a splash) and be considered a "champion". Characters having players that do well with those characters has more to do with luck (of them playing said characters) and the number of mains there are than their match-ups. That would explain why the number of "champions" per character varies so much. Pit doesn't really have ANY does he? DK has like four or five...three of which live in the same state (used to be four). They're both very close on the tier list, and I believe Pit has overall better match-ups.

That said, you don't consider Boss a "champion"? His placements with Mario have always been notable...although most are at locals.

Having a 40:60 means you're expected to win at least one set out of every three against an opponent of the same skill. 30:70 means at least one out of every 4 sets.

This is not always accurate. There are some who perform well above what's expected in regards of these ratios and there are some who perform well below. That doesn't always indicate variance in skill but sometimes in playstyle, match-up knowledge, or sometimes it's just incorrect. There are far too many variables for this standard to adequately cover every match-up.

I've always taken 45:55 to represent slight disadvantage, but still winnable. Just slightly tipped in the opposition's favor.

40:60 represents moderate disadvantage. Hard, usually because the other character walls extremely well, in Mario's case.

35:65 represents heavy disadvantage. Very difficult, but still possible.

Anything beyond that indicates a great deal of match-up imbalance due to something like an infinite, a CG, a lock, or something that inequalizes the required player skill between characters.

I assume this is what the majority of the character boards feel as well...since the majority of character boards uses the "x5:y5" system.

Edit: Also, you know as well as I that these match-up ratios are estimations. That's why they're constantly being debated and updated as time passes.

 

[Flayl]

If you're not going to use numbers as the values they represent, don't use them. Say "slight" "moderate" "heavy". No fighting game ever has 40:60 as a moderate disadvantage. That's just arbitrary.

 

[Matador]

If you're not going to use numbers as the values they represent, don't use them. Say "slight" "moderate" "heavy". No fighting game ever has 40:60 as a moderate disadvantage. That's just arbitrary.

I use it that way because the rest of the site uses it that way. When other boards come here or we go to other boards to discuss match-ups, we can always agree on the match-up ratio because they mean the same thing to both parties.

If everyone were to stop using ratios, then I personally would too. As a matter of fact, I think we were moving toward a new system anyways.

Is that all that you disagree with me on?

 

[Flayl]

Not really, but I don't see the point of going any further.

 

[fromundaman]

Mathematically speaking, the very definition of 30-70 means you should win 30 out of 100 games, or basically slightly less than a 3rd. If you think 30-70 means you shouldn't win, then the MU isn't 30-70.

That being said Flayl, I think it's a mix of overestimating MUs, the fact that while Mario has things going, he has nothing that stands out or he can abuse like other characters (Sonic has speed and timeouts, Ike has range and killing power, Yoshi has pivot grabs) and that we don't have many great Mario players, if any.

Mario is a very mediocre character. He's pretty much the jack of all trades, but master of none, and unfortunately that hurts more than helps in this game.

 

[Matador]

What match-ups are being overrated? Overall, our match-ups are terrible, even given our spot on the tier list.

 

[A2ZOMG]

Vs ROB is the main matchup I feel that the Mario boards usually overrate. Vs Falco probably was overrated for a long time until pretty recently. Outside of that I think we're fine.

 

[guapanga]

i really dont see ike with advantage over mario. i would say 50: 50

 

[fromundaman]

Maybe I should have said slightly overrated (MU discussions tend to make it sound moreso than the actual number we tag on it at the end), but to answer your question, I think Squirtle, ZSS, Pit, Kirby and Diddy are worse than we have them.

 

[Matador]

Judging by Inferno's match-up thread:

G&W should be changed from 35:65 to 40:60

Marth from 38:62 to a clean 40:60

Wario (IMO) from 40:60 to 45:55

Snake from 45:55 to 40:60

Falco from 45:55 to 40:60

Toon Link from 50:50 to 45:55

Diddy from 50:50 to 45:55 (possibly 40:60...but, I don't know how to fight '10 and '11)

Kirby from 50:50 to 45:55 (Boss would prolly say 40:60 at the top of the metagame)

DK from 50:50 to 45:55

Pikachu from 50:50 to 45:55

Charizard from 50:50 to 55:45

Squirtle from 50:50 to 45:55

Lucas from 50:50 to 45:55 (possibly 40:60. I get ***** in this match-up by top Lucases)

Bowser from 55:45 to 50:50 (Somebody was saying it was his adv. Chances are they played King Kong, lol)

Yoshi changed from 60:40 to 55:45

CF changed from 60:40 to 55:45

Ganon changed from 65:35 to 60:40

All my opinions. My reasoning will prolly come out during the discussions. The ones that I skipped don't change obviously.

 

[Inferno3044]

That mu thread is like '09 lol. I disagree with a lot of them now.

@flayl- Mario is bad

 

[Omari]

No disrespect (to any of the members), but arguing about MU ratios is pointless (it won't improve us as players). The only thing MU ratios (numbers) will do for smashers is install egos (or boost what shouldn't be there) in us. Granted, I used to think about numbers before playing actual sets in tournaments but recently (few months ago) discovered that I should be more focused on how to overcome any obstacle. When a smasher is focused on whether they should win (or lose) based on a number & not skill becomes silly IMO.


Lets take a look at some facts:
1. Mario's not a good Super Smash Bros. Brawl character. (Pointless arguments (how bad or good you think Mario is as a character) won't help anyone work around his faults thus actually further hindering our skills.)

2. Focusing on MU ratios (numbers) instead of how to overcome any obstacle (including our own) won't help Mario mains (or anyone) prosper.

3. MU ratios will forever evolve (numbers will always change due to advancements in each character's meta-game) in Super Smash Bros. Brawl.

4. Arguing with each other instead of working together won't help us improve as smashers (mainly people AKA communication skills).

5. Numbers do not determine the outcome of any match. Skill determines the outcome of a match. IMO, I don't like to believe in MU ratios (although I do believe certain MUs favoring a certain character more (or less) than the other) because that will cause me to think more about losing (or winning) opposed to the MU itself. IMO, smashers should review number five again.

6. False limits aren't true limits (obviously) but smashers tend to think (my point exactly) that Mario will never place due to him being a bad character in Super Smash Bros. Brawl. Several members think he's arguably the worst (opinion) character in the game which shouldn't matter (Us having fun (the main point of smash) should be our concern (character wise) fellow members).


@Flayl & Matador: May you stop arguing with each other about nothing? It'd be different if you two were having a discussion about each character's meta-game & helping others (including yourselves) succeed in offline tournaments. Instead, you two are arguing about opinions which makes no sense to me.


All Members: Some of you may be thinking, "Who does this guy think he is"? I'm Omari, a humble Mario main (aside from subbing the roster) who is willing to better the smash community as a whole. Taking sides will only blind our vision by the controversy around us not allowing us to see straight. Personally, I'm not here to place a title on myself (No offense to anyone, but I can give two ****s less about what anyone think about my Mario) but any beneficial criticism is well appreciated. My reason(s) for being here is to help (teach) other members better themselves (as players & people), learn (become enlightened) from my fellow smashers (especially those more skilled than me) & play (have fun) the game I travel around the world for (</3 brawling online (WiFi) but it's still fun every now & then) offline. Thanks for your time.

 

[Sleek Media]

All you can do is play Mario for fun, a challenge, or both. Nobody picks Mario in order to win tournaments because you're at a flat disadvantage across the board, period. Unless someone is LOLplaying as Gannon or something, you will have to outplay your opponent every time in order to win, and sooner or later, that disadvantage is going to become the tipping point that negates the difference in skill and sends you to the losers bracket.

 

[Omari]

All you can do is play Mario for fun, a challenge, or both. Nobody picks Mario in order to win tournaments because you're at a flat disadvantage across the board, period. Unless someone is LOLplaying as Gannon or something, you will have to outplay your opponent every time in order to win, and sooner or later, that disadvantage is going to become the tipping point that negates the difference in skill and sends you to the losers bracket.

You can play any character you want for your personal reason(s). No one picks Mario because they play for prize (obviously) but that doesn't mean that Mario isn't capable of winning any offline tournament (silly thinking). Agreed about outplaying your opponent(s) but you'll have to do that no matter which character you choose (let's avoid silly comments about MK's tornado. Thanks.) in the game. The character isn't what sends you to the losers bracket. It's you who sends you to the losers bracket. False limit (what you think is limited). Thanks for your time.

 

[Matador]

*Facepalm*

 

[Omari]

No, that's not what I was talking about Matador. I'm very aware that you've been here for a while on SWF doing your thing for the Mario community. What I'm talking about is mainly directed at Flayl's harsh comments about all Mario mains being terrible & 0.5 ratios being stupid. I believe ratios do have some order regarding how much the MU favors a certain character.

 

[Matador]

*Facepalm*

My apologies then, Omari.

 

[Omari]

You don't think Marios can benefit from having a numerical record of Mario's current worst/best match-ups up for everyone to see? You don't think discussion to improve the accuracy of these records is productive? Of course they're not 100% accurate, but they're far better than nothing as far as overall estimation goes.

And you know good and well that I've been focusing on figuring out how to deal match-ups one-by one and updating based on new developments since '08. I could give a **** about a ratio if, by the time we're done with discussion, it's not clear how the match-up works and how Mario goes about winning.

Also, go to the thread that Flayl's initial post came from.

This is exactly what I was doing for Supreme Dirt on the Mario vs Ganon match-up before Flayl commented on the overall ratio that Mario vs MK was.

I'm not imposing false limits. I'm not instilling egos. I'm not putting across my opinions on Mario as truth.

I respect what you're going on about, Omari, but I had a disagreement with Flayl over how we rate the difficulty of a match-up. I don't think it's fair of you to assume that I'm single-handedly trying to stunt the growth of Mario's metagame by discussing ratios.

My fault for double posting, I'd like to address this better.

1. Yes & no. Yes, I believe all upcoming Mario mains will have a good concept about any MU in the game. Regarding them benefiting? Yes being knowledgeable but no being hands on (actual tourney).

2. Yes, I agree they are productive. Like I said before, any MU ratio will forever change (due to the dedication of our smash community constantly developing new advances for their character's meta-game) Matador.

3. Yes I read those posts already & I wanted to tell you not to respond because IMO it wasn't worth it.

4. Regarding you helping another member out (which I noticed) was great. When Flayl gave his input about 0.5 ratios being "stupid" & Mario mains being terrible (due to them not having understandable MU ratios like 7:3 or 6:4 etc) made me think about the numbers overall. I'm not sure how (exactly) people can estimate a match up by number but it does seem close to reasonable (even though the outcome can't be based on a number IMO).

5. No, I'm not directing this at you or Flayl, I'm saying we should be able to discussion how to win with Mario versus how stupid the MU is (or how Mario "can't" win any difficult MU).

There's no reason to be sorry Matador, we just had a misunderstanding (that's all) & those are my main points.

 

[Sleek Media]

You can play any character you want for your personal reason(s). No one picks Mario because they play for prize (obviously) but that doesn't mean that Mario isn't capable of winning any offline tournament (silly thinking). Agreed about outplaying your opponent(s) but you'll have to do that no matter which character you choose (let's avoid silly comments about MK's tornado. Thanks.) in the game. The character isn't what sends you to the losers bracket. It's you who sends you to the losers bracket. False limit (what you think is limited). Thanks for your time.

^ Hardcore Denial.

Mario doesn't win tournaments. It's not because the Mario mains are just that much weaker than everyone else. There's simply a disadvantage there that can't be overcome once both players reach a certain level of skill. You might as well say Falcon can win tournaments if the people on those boards just work hard enough at figuring him out. There is nothing left to figure out - you guys have dissected this game down to the frame data. Just face the fact that Mario is not a viable option for winning tournaments, and go on enjoying playing as him anyway, as I do.

 

[Matador]

^ Hardcore Denial.

Mario doesn't win tournaments. It's not because the Mario mains are just that much weaker than everyone else. There's simply a disadvantage there that can't be overcome once both players reach a certain level of skill. You might as well say Falcon can win tournaments if the people on those boards just work hard enough at figuring him out. There is nothing left to figure out - you guys have dissected this game down to the frame data. Just face the fact that Mario is not a viable option for winning tournaments, and go on enjoying playing as him anyway, as I do.

Boss has won tournaments going all Mario, broski.

 

[Omari]

^ Hardcore Denial.

Mario doesn't win tournaments. It's not because the Mario mains are just that much weaker than everyone else. There's simply a disadvantage there that can't be overcome once both players reach a certain level of skill. You might as well say Falcon can win tournaments if the people on those boards just work hard enough at figuring him out. There is nothing left to figure out - you guys have dissected this game down to the frame data. Just face the fact that Mario is not a viable option for winning tournaments, and go on enjoying playing as him anyway, as I do.

There's no denial (nor is there any argument needed about the matter). Generally speaking, Mario is capable of winning just like any other character (the problem is that winning is more difficult (very) for any Mario main to do due to Mario himself being the true limit) in the game. "How would you know"? I've had countless members from all over attempt to convince me to quit Mario (mainly because they disliked seeing me place poorly when they believed without a doubt (which I respect a hell of a lot) that I could do much better). For your information, at every event I'm at I'm asking everyone for critique (win, lose, draw, timeout, etc) because I'm a humble person. Captain Douglas Jay Falcon (IMO) is in fact, capable of winning tournaments. Finally, (like I said in my previous posts...) I brawl for pride (obviously one of the main reasons being that Mario's my main). When I enter a tournament...the first thing that's on my mind (aside from warming up) is to outsmart (play) my competition to my best ability. Granted, you can't win everything but you can learn early on from your mistake(s). Call me whatever you want but I do believe in Mario as a character capable of winning anything because I believe in myself.

 

[fromundaman]

^ Hardcore Denial.

Mario doesn't win tournaments. It's not because the Mario mains are just that much weaker than everyone else. There's simply a disadvantage there that can't be overcome once both players reach a certain level of skill. You might as well say Falcon can win tournaments if the people on those boards just work hard enough at figuring him out. There is nothing left to figure out - you guys have dissected this game down to the frame data. Just face the fact that Mario is not a viable option for winning tournaments, and go on enjoying playing as him anyway, as I do.

Ally has won tournaments with Falcon as well. In melee Gimpyfish won tournaments with Bowser. In TVC RoyalFlush has won tournaments with Viewtiful Joe.


The thing isn't that you can't, it's that playing a character with lots of disadvantaged MUs means that you have to be THAT much better than and outplay a majority of your opponents. When you play a bad character, you just have to make sure the skill gap between you and your opponent is great enough to make up for your characters' disadvantages. The worse your character, the more skill you need to get to the same level of effectiveness as an opponent using a better character and vice versa. In the end skill is the most important factor. Character choice, while important, only compliments skill.

 

[vato_break]

Diddy Kong definitely beats mario, if anyone wants me to explain why, i gladly will.

 

[Supreme Dirt]

I'd be curious, please explain.

 

[Inferno3044]

Diddy Kong definitely beats mario, if anyone wants me to explain why, i gladly will.

These are '09 numbers man. Diddy got a lot better in 2 years.

 

[HeroMystic]

Holy ****, Hero's back! Hi Hero!

I've been around and lurking.

After going to a few recent tournaments I learned my skill has plummet immensely from lack of playtime, and I just need time to re-learn the metagame before I start shelling out (false) information.

As for the ratio discussion above, I've always felt the MUs have been made in relative to the character rather than relative to the metagame. However, every character board does this.

 

[Sleek Media]

Ally has won tournaments with Falcon as well. In melee Gimpyfish won tournaments with Bowser. In TVC RoyalFlush has won tournaments with Viewtiful Joe.


The thing isn't that you can't, it's that playing a character with lots of disadvantaged MUs means that you have to be THAT much better than and outplay a majority of your opponents. When you play a bad character, you just have to make sure the skill gap between you and your opponent is great enough to make up for your characters' disadvantages. The worse your character, the more skill you need to get to the same level of effectiveness as an opponent using a better character and vice versa. In the end skill is the most important factor. Character choice, while important, only compliments skill.

Y'all aren't listening to what I said. Mario is not a viable character to win tournaments. OF COURSE a highly skilled Mario can beat sufficiently less skilled players, regardless of the character they choose. I've had my share of wins in disadvantageous matches in tournaments. Thing is, if it was ME as MK vs ME as Mario, Mario ME is going to the losers bracket, every time. With Mario, you're only gonna win when you are flat-out better than the other player, and by no small margin. At some level of competitive play, there just isn't a skill buffer big enough to cover that disadvantage, and a Mario win becomes unfeasible.

Deny it all you want. I have fun playing him regardless.

 

[Inferno3044]

If my MK fought my Mario, my Mario would win probably. I haven't worked on MK.

 

[vato_break]

If my mk fought my mario it would be a 3 stock D:

 

[HeroMystic]

Deny it all you want. I have fun playing him regardless.

 

[Matador]

My Mario would **** my MK, lol.

 

[fromundaman]

Y'all aren't listening to what I said. Mario is not a viable character to win tournaments. OF COURSE a highly skilled Mario can beat sufficiently less skilled players, regardless of the character they choose. I've had my share of wins in disadvantageous matches in tournaments. Thing is, if it was ME as MK vs ME as Mario, Mario ME is going to the losers bracket, every time. With Mario, you're only gonna win when you are flat-out better than the other player, and by no small margin. At some level of competitive play, there just isn't a skill buffer big enough to cover that disadvantage, and a Mario win becomes unfeasible.

Deny it all you want. I have fun playing him regardless.

Ahhh.... Nevermind, I guess I misunderstood you.

 

[Inferno3044]

If my mk fought my mario it would be a 3 stock D:

Sounds like your Mario is really bad XD.

 

[fromundaman]

Sounds like some of you guys completely missed the point...

 

[vato_break]

Sounds like your Mario is really bad XD.

yeah but, it's okay mario has no potential anyway lol

 

[Matador]

Sounds like some of you guys completely missed the point...

I got the point, I just kinda don't care.

Mario's not amazing in Brawl. This isn't news.

If you're seriously gonna ***** and moan everytime you realize that tiers MAY NOT just be for queers and actually hold weight, then do not main Mario. Pick a GOOD character and gtfo.

Obv. Not directed at you Fromundaman.

 

[fromundaman]

Dude GTFO. Tiers for queers. Sonic da best bc haz da speed.

Very true. Mario's a character you should pretty much only main/secondary/play at all if you really enjoy playing him (Or maybe if you need someone to use against Olimar XD ), since other than how incredibly fun he is, there's no real reason to pick him up from a tournament viewpoint. As you said though, all of us already know that.
I think I got trolled >.<

 

[Omari]

@Sleek Media: Your point wasn't misunderstood. True, any character can win tournaments. Agreed, that if you really want to win a tournament that Mario wouldn't be your best bet. As I stated before (time & time again), I brawl for pride (not just to prove point(s), but to win (Why? Mario's my main (mainly because I've been playing him since the beginning &) because I love challenging challenges) & prize is only a bonus. The reason why I don't focus on winning prizes (cash) is because then you'll be discourage if you don't win (place first). Rather than intimidate myself with earnings, I'd rather have fun (play Mario) & learn (& teach) from all the smashers in the community. Regarding skill, agreed that the better skilled (thinking) smasher will be more likely to win (every single time). My point to you is that you cannot determine the real outcome of any match up based on ratios, numbers or/& characters. You can only hypothesize the outcome.

 

[HeroMystic]

I got the point, I just kinda don't care.

 

[Omari]

True. Honestly, I'd rather be discussing how we can better Mario as a character in brawl rather than discussion how viable or nonviable he is regarding tournament use. My long term objective is to break Mario.