That's exactly what I wanted to see, DanGR. Reading what you wrote seems to balance the matchup out and in no way seems like the "40:60" we had previously, by any means. However, for the fact that Ness is better at approaching, gimping, juggling, and quite possibly killing, than us I still feel 45:55 fits perfectly. But I'm starting to see 50:50 seeming reasonable as well.
Yeah, I can see yellows working the best in the matchup. Usmash would be far too difficult to land on Ness other than for punishment, and its main use would be in Toss, to throw off his approaches, which isn't entirely reliable, while yellow usmash, fsmash, and fair, can outdo his fair. In fact I can see Yellow Pikmin alone changing the matchup from 45:55 to 50:50, to be honest.
Speaking of which, I think deciding which pikmin are most usable should be included in our matchup discussions. It's just about as important as stage counterpicks, and could even play into stage CPs as well. For Ness I'm feeling Yellow > Blue/Purple > Red > White
Theorycraft time :D
Ness' Fair -> Jab vs Olimar's Shield -> Shield Grab
If Ness fairs our shield and we shield the three hits from jab as well, we're able to shield grab or whatever we want, due to the lag afterwards. So we'd basically be waiting for the third hit of the jab to hit our shield to throw out our grab, when it's safe. However, what if Ness doesn't send out the full jab? What if he fairs, throws out a jab to make sure we werent trying to shield grab his fair, then jumps back after the first or second hit (preferable first)? Or what if he fairs our shield, throws out the first jab, cancels the jab and throws out a grab? We're already in the mindset that we're just gonna shield through the whole thing until the "safe spot" after Ness' third jab hit, but what if it never comes? Considering we wouldn't be able to counter his grab until he already sent it out (when it's too late), it makes his approach not so "predictable". This, to an extent, changes Ness' approach options up a bit, doesn't it? Or am I thinking on it too much ^^;
Also, Ness' grab would effectively come out faster than I think anything we have in this situation. Not sure how long it would take for us to drop our shield and jab or dtilt him away but I can't think it of being reliable, considering we don't know if he's going to do all three hits, do one/two and cancel the jab to grab or get the **** away after the first/second jab hit.That's five options he has following his fair, right? Some we'd deal with in a similar way, some wouldn't give us too big of a problem (jumping away). But considering we basically have to hide behind our shield in this situation, trying to predict what he's going to do next, it could be a problem. But I may be putting too much thought into this >.>
Thanks AvariceX for the frame data. His grab isn't as fast as I thought it was, but it's by no means slower than ours ^^; Can you or someone link me to Ness' frame data? Pretty sure I remember seeing it a long time ago, but I wasn't able to find it (I need to resticky our frame data or something so it's easier to find too....). Haha, how good is Ness' jab cancel to grab anyways? If it's not worth you all doing I definitely just wasted twenty minutes writing this out @_@.
Edit: I'll list out what options and whatnot we both have when it's not 4:30 in the morning.