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What is the Most 50/50 matchup in this Melee?

red stone

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 21, 2006
Messages
889
Location
Nashville, Tennessee
Okay, so I pose this question to all of you. I would like a discussion about the closest matchups that happen at the highest levels of human play.

I want to know which matchups in this game are getting closer and closer to 50/50 as move forward into the future. What matchup will be played on for eternity. By 2040, the matchup will still be even then.

Let me list a few matchups that i think will continue continue being close for the foreseeable future:

-Marth vs. Sheik:

When everyone still sucked at melee, this matchup was far skewed in Sheik's favor. Over time, the metagame has allowed Marth to evolve to a point where I think Marth actually has a slight advantage over Sheik now. I however think that in the future, sheik will regain ground for this to once again become a 50/50 matchup. Currently I think it is 52/48 in favor of marth.

-Fox vs. Falco:

I used to think that Falco had a decent advantage chunk over Fox with his stunning lasers and shine combo game. However, Foxes are now getting increasingly ballsy with the off-stage shines as well as their reactions to tech chases and other reaction heavy stuff. As the game becomes quicker and quicker and people's reactions get shorter and shorter, fox gains more advantage because he is the only character that can go as fast as the mind can think and even faster.

However, there is a limit to human concentration. As a human you will falter. I believe that Falco lives on the line between human potential and human fallibility. Falco's combo game allows for mistakes and corrections. His tech roll is long and hard to react to on a bad day. He requires less concentration than fox.

While you can play perfect fox for a little while, you can't play perfect fox forever. Currently I believe that Fox's metagame is being developed more aggresively than Falco's, but I think this will correct over time to become a 50/50 again in the future. Currently I think it is 51/49 in favor of fox.

-Peach vs. Falco:

This matchup requires less mistakes by the Falco for obvious reasons. Peach's combo game gets better and better each day. The falcos in the world do not have enough peach practice to keep up with peach's ever evolving metagame. However, at the end of the day I think that falco beats peach on most stages. That is the key actually. I think that peach will beat falco on certain stages such as dreamland or fountain of dreams.

The stage choices will determine how close this matchup will be. I think that this is currently a 50/50 matchup but will favor falco by a moderate margin in the future, as falcos learn the peach matchup better.

Jigglypuff vs. Sheik

Because Sheik's rarely get Jigglypuff practice, the current metagame heavily favors Jigglypuff. In the future I hope that sheik's will camp out Jigglypuffs more and take more advantage of sheik's lost legged back-airs and needles. I could see this being closer to a 50/50 matchup especially on smaller stages.


Please feel free to list your own matchups and reasoning. It can be any matchup in the game as long as you think it will be relevant in the foreseeable future.
 
Joined
Oct 5, 2008
Messages
7,187
Mew2King once said that Fox vs Marth was the most even match up aside from a ditto. IDK if that idea is still true
 

Michelangelo

Smash Cadet
Joined
Oct 3, 2015
Messages
60
Location
Netherlands
Fox vs falco is the most interesting imo. I think it's 51/49 to falco because his combo's are more guaranteed and can't be escaped easily. But both characters still have so much potential. Some people say falco won't be as good because people learn to powershield, but people also learn to smash di fox' dair and upair better. Imo it's one of the most fun marchups to play and watch and it will always be close.
 

Archelon

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 27, 2015
Messages
393
Location
Ontario, Canada
Fox vs falco is the most interesting imo. I think it's 51/49 to falco because his combo's are more guaranteed and can't be escaped easily. But both characters still have so much potential. Some people say falco won't be as good because people learn to powershield, but people also learn to smash di fox' dair and upair better. Imo it's one of the most fun marchups to play and watch and it will always be close.
Aren't fox's more guaranteed? Most of Falco's can be DI'd + SDI'd out of.
 

Archelon

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 27, 2015
Messages
393
Location
Ontario, Canada
Yeah I think Fox definitely wins. I think the Falco wins misconception comes from mid level Foxes being easier to combo. I don't think it holds true at the top level.
(Where people SDI consistently, and can deal with lasers.)
 
Last edited:

Ministry

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 13, 2009
Messages
616
Location
Europe
a match up is ether 50-50 or its not. i don't think there is the "most close" to 50-50. there can be multiple 50-50 match ups though.
 

X WaNtEd X

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
1,647
Location
Lowell, MA
I think of some MUs more in terms of being like 10-10 (Puff dittos) or something like 90-90 (Sheik dittos) depending on how hard the characters body each other.
 
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