OKAY! Here we go on the merry-go-round.
THE GOAL:
There are 6 votes on Gheb and twelve players. The goal is to tie that vote and have both players die. If Orbo isn't wrong, then Gheb and Orbo die. If Orbo is wrong, then Gheb and I die. This is an eventuality that I have come to terms with and am PERFECTLY OKAY WITH!
THE HOW:
I need everyone who has not voted to vote to execute Gheb. This will tie the votes resulting in the death of both players. Either Gheb and myself or Gheb and Orbo.
THE WHY:
I've been analyzing the game with a Ruy flip in the forefront. This leads to a few interesting conclusions that I will get to in my analysis of the game coming later on tonight/this morning (I'm not sleeping). At the heart of it is a SvT scenario in Gheb vs. Legolas. They're both possible scum at this point and I don't see any possibility of them being scummates. The possible scum teams divide pretty neatly around them and it's imperative that I make goddamn sure that Gheb isn't slipping away with a Lego mislynch and riding the preconceived town reads that he has at the moment.
First, the notions that this analysis is based on. Take my word on it for now, the important thing is to make sure no vote gets cast before this info is out. You will have a detailed cheat sheet to the town, scum, and indy factions complete with reasoning after I make this post, so take for granted that these reads are followed up on, same as my Nich case.
Basic Playerlist Analysis:
1.) Raz
Town. He is DEFINITELY a Watcher. This leaves the analysis of his alignment. After the events of Day 2, it's definitely town.
2.) Lego
Scum possibility. WIFOM layer one on an RR scum flip says he's scum. That's a distinct chance. Gheb's flip, however would make sense and would clear him. He will be seen in the possible scum teams but never on Gheb's team.
3.) Ryker
Town. No explanation needed.
4.) Orbo
Possibly scum. Will show up in the possible scum team section. More on Orbo and his alignment later. Note that Orbo scum seems MUCH more likely with Gheb scum than with other scum teams.
5.) Inferno
Possibly scum. This guy strives to be null. He's going to show up in possible scum teams, but a reread is going to help me iron out which of those to eliminate.
6.) Kantplay
Not scum. I refuse to believe RR and Kantplay were that sold on bussing each other. RR almost certainly interfered somehow with Kantplay's night action.
7.) Gova
Not scum. I SINCERELY doubt that he's scum. It's not 100%, but it's enough that I am not putting him on scum teams. Big post will explain why.
8.) RR
Scum.
9.) Rajam
Not scum. Pushed RR hard. Is getting this silly fake message. Day 2 play has been acceptable.
10.) Sang
Possible scum. She's a long explanation, a really ****ing long explanation. In depth analysis will be shown in my next post.
11.) Glyph
Not scum. Possible indy. Scares the **** out of me.
12.) Gheb
Possible scum.
Let me tell you a story. After F&L, I asked EE for a game that he thought displayed him playing really well in LyLo. He recommended Bioware and I've read it cover to cover.
In Bioware, Gheb was scum. He got recruited by the mafia on N0. His team was ****, which is the case if Gheb is scum in this game. What he did in that game, was bus the hell out of his scummates and attempt to run the gauntlet. He managed to make it all the way to LyLo where EE reread and pieced it all together, there's a lot of parallels.
Myself, Lego, and Raz are the players that he wouldn't consider expendable on a team. All of us, I am certain, are not on Gheb's scum team. This means that the conditions are much the same.
Think with me about the scariest combination involving Gheb scum. Gheb, RR, and Orbo. Gheb pushes RR around as a tier two lynch choice behind multiple targets. Always has room for the lynch to go the other way which is exactly what he did with his Swiss/X1 scummate after night 2 of Bioware. Then he has Orbo claim here as a way to put me out of the game without having to put me out of the game seeing as I had claimed Tracker. Think that's farfetched? What is the first thing Gheb is known for in this game? Defending Orbo from two players. One has flipped town and one is almost certainly town.
That's the super scary one because he would WALK with that ****. And if he is BP or something as he has claimed, he's equipped to make it to LyLo even in the event of an indy.
Let's look at other Gheb scum points.
1. The quote where Gheb asks about lynching Orbo and Executing me is DISGUSTING. If anyone can explain a well thought out town motive behind that, I'll eat my foot.
2. Gheb is implying Dragoon. If that's the case and he has the jump ability, why the **** didn't he use it last night? Why didn't all the night actions targeting him fail? Was he slowed? No, he would've called out the players on his wagon, ESPECIALLY INFERNO'S HASTE CLAIM! He could simply have balls of steel, but that's extremely coincidental and scares me.
3. Lego. If you have Auto-Potion. You need to claim it now. You're voteblocked today and I'm not. I was in Gheb's hip pocket at the start of the phase and you and Raz are the two most valuable players after that and I know Gheb sells Raz short. It lines up REALLY well and would be Gheb's night kill target if he's scum.
4. This Execution ability that is almost certainly scum aligned makes a LOT more sense balance-wise if you have to put up a scummy in order to use it. Gheb is the only possible scummy in the game that would stand a chance of living vs. me.
Possible Scum Teams:
Gheb, Orbo, RR
Discussed above.
Gheb, Inferno, RR
Scumferno hasting Gheb makes sense. Especially if he targeted Xonar at night and hit the autopotion.
Those are the two most likely.
Gheb, Sang, RR and Gheb, Gova, RR are possible but I find it extremely unlikely and it would take a lot in a reread to make me consider it.
THE GOAL:
There are 6 votes on Gheb and twelve players. The goal is to tie that vote and have both players die. If Orbo isn't wrong, then Gheb and Orbo die. If Orbo is wrong, then Gheb and I die. This is an eventuality that I have come to terms with and am PERFECTLY OKAY WITH!
THE HOW:
I need everyone who has not voted to vote to execute Gheb. This will tie the votes resulting in the death of both players. Either Gheb and myself or Gheb and Orbo.
THE WHY:
I've been analyzing the game with a Ruy flip in the forefront. This leads to a few interesting conclusions that I will get to in my analysis of the game coming later on tonight/this morning (I'm not sleeping). At the heart of it is a SvT scenario in Gheb vs. Legolas. They're both possible scum at this point and I don't see any possibility of them being scummates. The possible scum teams divide pretty neatly around them and it's imperative that I make goddamn sure that Gheb isn't slipping away with a Lego mislynch and riding the preconceived town reads that he has at the moment.
First, the notions that this analysis is based on. Take my word on it for now, the important thing is to make sure no vote gets cast before this info is out. You will have a detailed cheat sheet to the town, scum, and indy factions complete with reasoning after I make this post, so take for granted that these reads are followed up on, same as my Nich case.
Basic Playerlist Analysis:
1.) Raz
Town. He is DEFINITELY a Watcher. This leaves the analysis of his alignment. After the events of Day 2, it's definitely town.
2.) Lego
Scum possibility. WIFOM layer one on an RR scum flip says he's scum. That's a distinct chance. Gheb's flip, however would make sense and would clear him. He will be seen in the possible scum teams but never on Gheb's team.
3.) Ryker
Town. No explanation needed.
4.) Orbo
Possibly scum. Will show up in the possible scum team section. More on Orbo and his alignment later. Note that Orbo scum seems MUCH more likely with Gheb scum than with other scum teams.
5.) Inferno
Possibly scum. This guy strives to be null. He's going to show up in possible scum teams, but a reread is going to help me iron out which of those to eliminate.
6.) Kantplay
Not scum. I refuse to believe RR and Kantplay were that sold on bussing each other. RR almost certainly interfered somehow with Kantplay's night action.
7.) Gova
Not scum. I SINCERELY doubt that he's scum. It's not 100%, but it's enough that I am not putting him on scum teams. Big post will explain why.
8.) RR
Scum.
9.) Rajam
Not scum. Pushed RR hard. Is getting this silly fake message. Day 2 play has been acceptable.
10.) Sang
Possible scum. She's a long explanation, a really ****ing long explanation. In depth analysis will be shown in my next post.
11.) Glyph
Not scum. Possible indy. Scares the **** out of me.
12.) Gheb
Possible scum.
Let me tell you a story. After F&L, I asked EE for a game that he thought displayed him playing really well in LyLo. He recommended Bioware and I've read it cover to cover.
In Bioware, Gheb was scum. He got recruited by the mafia on N0. His team was ****, which is the case if Gheb is scum in this game. What he did in that game, was bus the hell out of his scummates and attempt to run the gauntlet. He managed to make it all the way to LyLo where EE reread and pieced it all together, there's a lot of parallels.
Myself, Lego, and Raz are the players that he wouldn't consider expendable on a team. All of us, I am certain, are not on Gheb's scum team. This means that the conditions are much the same.
Think with me about the scariest combination involving Gheb scum. Gheb, RR, and Orbo. Gheb pushes RR around as a tier two lynch choice behind multiple targets. Always has room for the lynch to go the other way which is exactly what he did with his Swiss/X1 scummate after night 2 of Bioware. Then he has Orbo claim here as a way to put me out of the game without having to put me out of the game seeing as I had claimed Tracker. Think that's farfetched? What is the first thing Gheb is known for in this game? Defending Orbo from two players. One has flipped town and one is almost certainly town.
That's the super scary one because he would WALK with that ****. And if he is BP or something as he has claimed, he's equipped to make it to LyLo even in the event of an indy.
Let's look at other Gheb scum points.
1. The quote where Gheb asks about lynching Orbo and Executing me is DISGUSTING. If anyone can explain a well thought out town motive behind that, I'll eat my foot.
2. Gheb is implying Dragoon. If that's the case and he has the jump ability, why the **** didn't he use it last night? Why didn't all the night actions targeting him fail? Was he slowed? No, he would've called out the players on his wagon, ESPECIALLY INFERNO'S HASTE CLAIM! He could simply have balls of steel, but that's extremely coincidental and scares me.
3. Lego. If you have Auto-Potion. You need to claim it now. You're voteblocked today and I'm not. I was in Gheb's hip pocket at the start of the phase and you and Raz are the two most valuable players after that and I know Gheb sells Raz short. It lines up REALLY well and would be Gheb's night kill target if he's scum.
4. This Execution ability that is almost certainly scum aligned makes a LOT more sense balance-wise if you have to put up a scummy in order to use it. Gheb is the only possible scummy in the game that would stand a chance of living vs. me.
Possible Scum Teams:
Gheb, Orbo, RR
Discussed above.
Gheb, Inferno, RR
Scumferno hasting Gheb makes sense. Especially if he targeted Xonar at night and hit the autopotion.
Those are the two most likely.
Gheb, Sang, RR and Gheb, Gova, RR are possible but I find it extremely unlikely and it would take a lot in a reread to make me consider it.
