I play against Future's Ice Climbers quite a bit (about once a week), and I can't really see this being better than 40:60 for us, personally. I think that's probably too generous though... It's probably more like 30:70. Of course, I CP Metaknight for the matchup in tournament because it just doesn't seem like you have a fighting chance as Falco, so I'm open to discussion since I haven't played it recently.
Their grab range is terrible and they have no grab setups, but they have very good tools for forcing Falco into awkward positions, and that can make it easy for them to predict and punish with a grab.
Admitedly, Falco has more utility in this match than some give him credit for; he can laser / phantasm to stay away, and the phantasm can pop them up for combos / separation. You also have the ability to chain throw them, so long as you wait for Nana to run back and then d-throw her so that your lasers in the throw push her away again.
But, even with that... blizzard still ***** a lot of our approach options / phantasm, and you are constantly going to be under pressure because without a good air camping game; you don't have many safe options. The IC's also don't really have that big of an issue with approaching you, since they can blizzard / force you into eating up-airs fairly easily.
Even if you kill Nana, Popo can CG you to the ledge / f-smash you by himself up to what, like 50%?
Somewhere between 40:60 and 30:70... it just doesn't at all seem like we have that great of a shot at winning in most scenarios. It's like our best chance is generally "almost winning"... I still feel like 40:60 is probably to generous for us though...
I will test some more with him next week though, since I haven't played it in a while because, as I said, it was always much more practical for me to use Metaknight in this matchup in tournament.
Any tips for testing are appreciated.