Rate Their Chances Day Sixty: Ashley Robbins and Ragna the BloodEdge

[finalark]

Pokemon Trainer - 20% (He's a gimmick character, I can see them keeping one of the mons in as playable, probably Charizard because gen 1 idiots fans love him to death)

Isaac - 40% (The Golden Sun games do have a sizable fanbase, and I think there is a strong possibility that he will be playable. I just wouldn't keep my fingers crossed)

 

[Zzuxon]

PKMN Trainer: 85%
There is a chance he'll be replaced by a different PKMN trainer, but red is the most popular, so it's not likely. DESERVING.
Isaac: 85%
One of the most likely newcomers out there. He represents a major series, and his fan demand is huge.
WANTED.
Nominations:
Bubbles x3
Waluigi (mario party/kart/sports rep) x2
predictions:
Marth: 94%
Takamaru: 60%
ALSO, finalark, you are wrong, wrong, wrong. The PKMN trainer is kinda sorta THE PERSON YOU PLAY AS IN THE GAMES! He is much, much more than a gimmick character. Furthermore, the Ice Climbers were a gimmick character in melee, but they kept them in brawl, so it's irrelavent in the first place.

 

[shinhed-echi]

Pokemon Trainer:
+Very original. Concept was really well done, even with a "fatigue" system that makes you have to switch Pokemon.
+Main character from Blue, Red, Yellow, L.Green F.Red.
+Has the most iconic starters.
+I would say a LOT of work was put into this character, there's no way they're throwing all that effort down the drain.

-Pokemon is sort of unstable inside SSB. Pichu and Mewtwo left last time, so there's no 100% guarantee he'll stay.


Isaac:
+Three games.
+Most popular, best received GBA games
+One of the most popular choices for next game.
+Was an Assist Trophy
+Moveset potential is INSANE.

-Mathew his son, from the last Golden Sun game





P.Trainer: 90%

Isaac: 85%




Nominate: (x5) Mike (startropics)

 

[Lightosia]

Pokemon Trainer

A unique and cool character. He isn't a guarantee because Pokemon series is the most probable to have changes.
I actually expect changes in PT's pokes. Maybe he will have starters from different generations. (2nd or 5th are my guesses).

86%

Isaac

Yes, please! He deserves to be more than a Assist Trophy. Great moveset potential with the Djinns.
The only thing that holds him back is his son. Matthew is the protagonist of the last Golden Sun game, Dark Dawn. And if you played GS:DD you should know that in the ending

Spoiler

it has a cliffhanger for a fourth game of the series

, which makes Matthew more favorable to appear in Smash 4 than his father, Isaac.
Anyone that joins from Golden Sun should have a deserving status.
67% 5-deserving

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nominate (Veterans):
Sonic (x5)

Nominate (Newcomers) DOUBLE POWER:
Genesect (x5)
Mii(x3)
Waluigi (x2)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Takamaru- 57%

 

[Deleted member]

Day Twenty-One has ended. Getting the next day up very soon...

 

[Deleted member]

Pokemon Trainer had a solid score of 75.69% that he was awarded. With his three Pokemons standing beside him, he showed that he would be incredibly grateful if he had the opportunity to return. Silently, he and his Pokemon left the building.

Isaac did great in the polling in both areas. He had an impressive 79.62% in likeliness, which was impressive for most newcomer standards. His score in deserving was also something that many desired but would not get, a 4.5. The ecstatic behavior in him gave him lots of hopes that he would be in SSB4.

Two swordsmen, Marth and Takamaru, stepped up to the plate and waited anxiously for people's opinion on them. Would they be considered among the likely candidates in most eyes? Only you can decide.

Marth and Takamaru are up for polling. The poll ends at 8:30 PM CST (I have to work late). On deck are Bowser and Caeda; you may predict the score the latter gets.

As for the winners, it seems as CrimsonFeint and JavaCroc tied for being the closest to predicting Pokemon Trainer's score. --- and Zzuxon are tied for predicting Isaac's score. Considering that CrimsonFent and --- were the first to predicting Pokemon Trainer's and Isaac's score respectively, should I give them the nominations or give it to JavaCroc/Zzuxon as well?

 

[OmegaXXII]

Hello guys, OK, I decided to start participating again, I will be a active again as of today.

Veteran: Marth - 97.99% (Provable)

Newcomer: Takamaru -72.99% (Considerable)

NOTE: I will post my thoughts on this later due to work.

 

[Barbasol]

Marth~100%. The quintessential hero for the Fire Emblem Series, so long as Nintendo doesn't do anything crazy, Marth-man will be back. Want Level- 5

Takamaru~ 33%: I really don't see the hype. It seems people are just bandwagoning Takamaru because he seems like something Japanese gamers want. Bear in mind, the only Japan-Only characters we've ever received were from Fire Emblem which was a highly popular long running series. Even then they barely made it over.

Takamaru is not only region specific, but has one title to his franchise. If they were bringing his series back, this would be a different story, but I see no reason to expect him. Want Level- 2

Newcomer- Waluigi x5
Veteran- R.O.B. x5

Prediction- Caeda ~47%

 

[Deleted member]

Marth

No reason to remove him now. If anyone is going, it will be Ike and even so, I doubt he's getting the boot.

100%

Takamaru

He is a swordsman, but that wouldn't make him a clone. He has a katana, which is different from a sword, not to mention he has magic and ninja stars. If done right, he would be very unique and a great obscure character to have. Deserving

Now for his chances, I have good feelings about his chances. He is relevant to gaming, having made appearances in three games; WarioWare: D.I.Y., Captain Rainbow, and most importantly, Samurai Warriors 3, in which he received a remake, which is IMO, enough for Sakurai to consider Takamaru. So we have that. Meaning that he has not been forgotten by the gaming world.

Also note that he has high fan demand for his inclusion and people actually want to see him in SSB4. At this rate, the only thing that could keep him away is his former obscurity.

82.50%

Predicting that Caeda gets a 47.14%

Nominations:
Veterans:

Zero Suit Samus (x5)

Newcomers:

Medusa (x1)
Ryu Hayabusa (x1)
Diddy and Dixie Kong (x1)
Slime (x1)
Meowth (x1)

Edit: Just to clarify, CrimsonFeint and --- have won the veteran and newcomer nominations respectively regardless of how this situation is handled.

 

[Zzuxon]

As for the winners, it seems as CrimsonFeint and JavaCroc tied for being the closest to predicting Pokemon Trainer's score. --- and Zzuxon are tied for predicting Isaac's score. Considering that CrimsonFent and --- were the first to predicting Pokemon Trainer's and Isaac's score respectively, should I give them the nominations or give it to JavaCroc/Zzuxon as well?

How about you give JavaCroc and I 3 extra?

Now for rating.
Marth: 100%
Star of the first, second, and fourth games, with recent remakes, he has become easily the most significant fire emblem character. WANTED
Takamaru: 45%
I just don't think he's very likely. I mean, he's gotten a few games, but he's competing with a lot of other misc. characters who are just better choices, like Starfy, Isaac, and Ray. But, the biggest barrier for Takamaru is Samurai Goroh, who is more likely and would also use a Katana. Since he'd still be pretty cool, I'll give him a NEUTRAL.
Nominations:
Bubbles x4
Waluigi (as mario party/kart/sports rep) x4
Predictions
Caeda: 42%
Bowser:100%

 

[Deleted member]

@Zzuxon: I think that will work. In a situation like this, the first to predicting the closest score gets five more nominations, the second to predicting the closest score gets three more, and others who predict it gets one more. I will put this down in my FAQs on the OP.

 

[---]

Marth - 100%

Takamaru - 55% I give him a 4.

Predictions:
Bowser - 100%
Caeda - 68.88% (I'll explain why tomorrow)

Nominations:
Snake x2
R.O.B. x3
Mii x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[shinhed-echi]

Marth: First lord, first game. Main protagonist. Have been around since Melee, with no signs of leaving due to Fire Emblem popularity. Stays.



Takamaru:
+Mentioned a few times in Sakurai's journal.
+Had a remake/reimagening inside Samurai Warriors 3.
+Apparently Sakurai has some sort of interest in him.
+Appears in Captain Rainbow.

-Sakurai would probably stop with the japan-only characters (though he's technically not japan only anymore, thus boosting his chances)
-There's something about Smash Bros. against characters with japanese swords... This could be just me though.
-Takamaru is basically a one-shot character. He hasn't spawned a true follow up sequel enough to consider his game a "franchise".


-Marth: 100%
-Takamaru: 60%



Again: Mike (StarTropics) x5 (though I think I'm going to regret this).

 

[Deleted member]

@shinhed-echi. Is that a 100% for Marth? I'm suspecting it is.

 

[shinhed-echi]

@shinhed-echi. Is that a 100% for Marth? I'm suspecting it is.

-Marth: 100%
-Takamaru: 60%

Yes it is.

 

[Deleted member]

Yes it is.

In this thread, I failed at reading, lol.

 

[shinhed-echi]

In this thread, I failed at reading, lol.

lol Happens to all of us.

For future references, I put the pros-cons first for both characters, and the verdict in % for both, together, at the bottom.

 

[Shorts]

Marth: 90% chance, Well, let's face it, he's getting in. On the crazy off chance that Ike stays, and a New Hero takes Marth's place instead of just being added in, I'll go with a 90%. You know me. Mr. Cautious. He is a 5 in deserving.

Takamaru has a 45% chance, He has about 10 other popular older characters he has to compete with. That being said, I kept it at this number instead of 30% because he has been in the spotlight recently, and Sakurai does mention interest in him. I give him a 4 in deserving. He's a good choice that I have few problems with. He clashes with Lyn, and Samurai Goroh, which bugs me.

I'll throw 5 votes in for Jill Valentine, and x5 votes in for Luigi

Predictions: Bowser 96% Caeda 62%.

 

[Berserker.]

Marth - 100%. He's not getting the boot. If anyone is getting the boot, it's Ike but for now, none of the current FE reps are getting a boot.

Takumaru - 75% - He's getting relevant and he's also a popular choice. He can also bring a new playstyle to SSB since he's the first one to use the katana (Want level - 4)

 

[PK_Wonder]

Marth: 100%
Takamaru: 47%

Predictions:
Caeda: 47.5%

Nominations:
Kirby x5
Tingle x5 (I just want to get him out of the way, and we need another Zelda character in line after Skull Kid).

 

[finalark]

Marth 100% - He is the protagonist of the first Fire Emblem game. If not his popularity as a playable character getting him in, Japanese nostalgia will.

Takamaru 0% - Excuse me, who?

 

[Deleted member]

Takamaru 0% - Excuse me, who?

Takamaru is the protagonist of 1986's The Mysterious Murasame Castle, a Japan-only Famicom Disk System game. Since then, he received a port to the GBA (Third-worst selling, above that of Metroid and Kid Icarus as there was a several thousands divide between the three games) and has become relevant, with him appearing in three games as of after Brawl, WarioWare D.I.Y., Captain Rainbow, and getting a remake of his own game inside Samurai Warriors 3. Demands for his inclusion has been pretty high since his relevancy went up.

If playable, not only would he represent a different style of swordsmans with his katana, he also has his ninja stars and magic at his disposal, so he has a lot of potentials to be unique.

 

[finalark]

Takamaru is the protagonist of 1986's The Mysterious Murasame Castle, a Japan-only Famicom Disk System game. Since then, he received a port to the GBA (Third-worst selling, above that of Metroid and Kid Icarus as there was a several thousands divide between the three games) and has become relevant, with him appearing in three games as of after Brawl, WarioWare D.I.Y., Captain Rainbow, and getting a remake of his own game inside Samurai Warriors 3. Demands for his inclusion has been pretty high since his relevancy went up.

If playable, not only would he represent a different style of swordsmans with his katana, he also has his ninja stars and magic at his disposal, so he has a lot of potentials to be unique.

Oh yes, I saw JewWario's video on that game. I still say 0%, given that he's almost completely unknown and has only seen in two cameos

Spoiler

(hell, Morrigan from Darkstalkers is in almost every Capcom cross over fighter despite there not being a Darkstalkers game since the Saturn)

in addition to being in the third worst selling GBA game. And the remake of his game seems pretty lackluster, receiving a 55 on meta critic.

Plus this is the first time I've ever heard of anyone wanting his inclusion. I'd imagine that Nintendo would choose a much more popular Samurai character like Goroh over him.

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Marth: 100%

First lord's gonna stay and that's it. (-=-=-) Ike's having it more hard anyway.

Takamaru: 76%

Kinda hard to boil him down: first of all, he's been somewhat appearing a bit these days now, recently in Samurai Warriors 3. Still, that doesn't count for him as a new game, because what I've seen, the game's just a watered down reimagined version of Nazo No Murasamejo in freeroaming 3D. (-l-l-; )
Besides, he's still quite obscure to many people.

And if Sakurai's still against Japan-only characters, I don't think he's really gonna consider Takamaru based on the reason of seeing him in SW3. But he has been mentioning him about, saying that if he gets a new game, he might add him.

But he has a plenty of moveset potential. He'd use his projectile attacks like kunai's and fire balls from his games. Also his katana would let him deliver quick and defensive style attacks, and can be used to block projectiles. Then there comes the Invicibility Cloak,which could act similarly to Dimensional Cape MetaKnight has. The cloak and the projectiles could be put in as the B-moves, and projectile blocking could be his own unique mechanic. He has to though beware for some items, like explosives.

Final Smash could be the lightning spell from his game again: he'd builds power on his katana, then unleashes it on the stage: it's like the Lightning-item, expect it deals lots of damage with high knockback. He can use this three times like in the game, and then it's gone.

One of the reasons why I want him in is because he could break that Japan-only character banning rule and also show that worldwide popularity isn't always the thing you need to get to known again.( I can then enjoy likes of him, and Lip, I mean, what happened to Stafy after he was shown as an Assist Trophy? His game got localised! That already says something how Smash can help tremendously to revive characters or break their Japan-only status.)
We need to collide so many Nintendo's worlds as we can! Besides, his game would be great canditate as the next one needing reboot- just wish they showed him in Smash.

I tell ya guys, he's totally deserving! (5)

Nominating:

Newcomers:

x5 Lip

Veterans:

x5 King Dedede

 

[Kantrip]

Lol@ties

Marth - 99%. Not present in 64 and unlockable in Melee. Obviously his chances are incredibly high because of how he carries the FE franchise, but I wouldn't rule out any small chances since he's not like Mario/Link/DK cemented into the game.

Takamaru - 40%. I really didn't know how to call this one. He doesn't actually have anything prohibiting his chances, as originating in Japan and not being well known are not valid arguments. However, he sees a lot of competition and, due to his unfortunate stereotyping into another swordsman, he gets a less than 50/50 chance of inclusion.

I'll give him a 4 for deserving though.

Nominations: x10 Diddy
x5 Diddy&Dixie

Predicting Caeda will roll in at a 33%

 

[Pseudomaniac]

Marth- 100%. He's staying.

Takamaru- 30%
FOR
-Popular among fans.
-Recently appeared in Samurai Warriors 3.
-Would have a good moveset.
AGAINST
-Extremely obscure.
-Competition against Isaac, Little Mac, Starfy, and Ray.

 

[Deleted member]

-Competition against Isaac, Little Mac, Starfy, and Ray.

Considering that he would likely count under the retro category, I don't think that's a problem. Only one he has to worry about is Lip, and I consider her to be much less likely.

 

[shinhed-echi]

I think Takamaru's real competition are japan only characters.


Even though he's no longer a japan-exclusive title, his remake wasn't exactly titled "Nazo no Murasame Jo". It was Samurai Warriors 3 and the remake was a MODE, a side dish from the main game. It's not like Nintendo advertised the game as Takamaru's comeback (like they did for Little Mac).

Samurai Goroh? Bleh... No thanks. Takamaru has more moves to work with, and he is an oldschool Samurai/ninja hybrid.

 

[Deleted member]

I think Takamaru's real competition are japan only characters.


Even though he's no longer a japan-exclusive title, his remake wasn't exactly titled "Nazo no Murasame Jo". It was Samurai Warriors 3 and the remake was a MODE, a side dish from the main game. It's not like Nintendo advertised the game as Takamaru's comeback (like they did for Little Mac).

- I don't think Takamaru has much competition to worry about. The only somewhat noticeable threat is Lip and even so, with Takamaru being more relevant then Lip and more popular with Smash fans; considering that a retro rep is near guarantee, Takamaru will likely be chosen over Lip or any other potential rep if we only get one rep.

- Samurai Warriors 3 did great in Japan and it introduced many gamers to Takamaru. I doubt he's that incredibly obscure anymore.

Edit: Shortiecanbrawl, Luigi has already been polled.

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

- I don't think Takamaru has much competition to worry about. The only somewhat noticeable threat is Lip and even so, with Takamaru being more relevant then Lip and more popular with Smash fans; considering that a retro rep is near guarantee, Takamaru will likely be chosen over Lip or any other potential rep if we only get one rep.

Edit: Shortiecanbrawl, Luigi has already been polled.

Lip's not retro, she came out in 1995. Takamaru shortly doesn't battle against her in getting a retro slot, so IMO, there's no rivals against Takamaru regarding retro representative.
Takamaru thus doesn't have much problem getting in. (-lvl-)

About Lip, she's more in her own category, like Star Fox. Puzzle League's quite on still, but she's just been cameoing. Lip's not retro as I said above, because seeing from her debut she can't be battling with likes of 80's Nintendo-characters for retro slot- her game wasn't a oneshot and wasn't made in 80's, so. She'd be more like battling about female character slot. (-l-l-)

Wish we'll get both Lip and Takamaru...

 

[Lightosia]

Marth
The lord that has appeared the most in Fire Emblem series. He is quite a symbol of it.
Four games, *****es.

100%

Takamaru

I remember he got a nice number of supporters before Brawl launch. It is Nintendo's first samurai. Also, samurais have cool fighting style
He's got more attention since his Captain Rainbow and Samurai Warriors appearance. Since Sakurai likes to have some Japan only characters, I can say his chances are quite good.
Also, don't forget his music is in Brawl.
61% 3-neutral

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nominate (Veterans):
Sonic (x5)

Nominate (Newcomers):
Genesect (x3)
Mii(x1)
Waluigi (x1)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Caeda-42%

 

[Fluttershy]

Missed Zelda i'll still do it even though it won't change the total score)
Zelda 100%
as long as their is LoZ she is going to be in here no matter what

Victini 25%
more likely to be a pokemon that comes out of a pokeball. Just look at Mew, Celebi, Jirachi and Manaphy
todays

Marth 100%
One of the first popular lords i don't think they will get rid of him

Takamaru: 65%

Nominates
Vet: Sheik 5
Newcomer: Lloyd Irving 5

 

[Zzuxon]

I gave bubbles 2 new nominations, and waluig 1, since I won 3 new nominations.

 

[Link2thelost90]

Marth - 100%
Not moving even if for whatever odd and foolish reason they'd have to cut a Fire Emblem rep.
Want lv - 5/5

Takamaru- 47%
Want lv - 3 (neutral)

Nominations :star:
Vets-
x5
Newcomers-
Dr. Ivo Robotnik (Eggman) x5

Predictions-
Bowser - 100%
Caeda - 40%

 

[Deleted member]

Day has officially ended. Will get the next day as soon as possible.

 

[Deleted member]

Marth gets 99.13%
Takamaru gets 51.67% and 3.75.

Adding flavor later.

PaulKagebin wins five newcomer nominations.

You may rate how likely Bowser and Caeda are. The poll ends at 8:00 PM CST. On-deck are Sonic and Skull Kid; of which you may predict the score they get tomorrow.

 

[---]

Bowser - 100%

Caeda - 70%

• She has the best chances of all the FE newcomers,
• Has appeared in just as many games as Marth (4) and serves as a 2nd protagonist,
• Appeared in the most recent FE games in both the U.S. and Japan,
• News that FE12 is being released later this year lowers the chances of a New FE Lord making it in,
• Is quite popular in Japan (after the Pegasus Sisters), http://ikusaba.nomaki.jp/gallery/fe/ps/an-sheeda.htm
• Can dismount her Pegasus to fight like in FE3,
• A unique moveset could use both her lance and sword,
• Is a Female character something of which Smash needs more of,
• Is the FE counterpart to Peach and Zelda,

(I'm pretty sure FE is getting another slot, FE in Japan is right up there with other Nintendo franchises and is getting there in the U.S., if an almost dead series like Star Fox can get 3 slots for clones then FE should have no problem getting 1 more)

I give her a 4.

Predictions:
Sonic - 55%
Skull Kid - 5%

Nominations:
Snake x3
R.O.B. x2
Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Shorts]

Bowser gets a 100% from me. I don't need to explain this one do I? The only lasting Mario villain and blah blahh.


Caeda gets a 40% because while I consider her a lead contender for the FE series, I just know that there are a lot of of potential newcomers that are generally more popular than her. She's a 3 in deserving.

My five votes go for Jill Valentine, and the other five to Kirby.

 

[Zigsta]

Bowser's 200%.

 

[Deleted member]

Bowser's 200%.

I'll take that as a 100%.

Anyway...

Bowser

100%

Caeda

Caeda has some things going for her inclusion. She is relevant, very important to the series, she and her husband Marth have appeared in four games, and is becoming popular with Fire Emblem crowds for requests in SSB4. This is enough to make her possible.

However, a few things keep her from likely getting in. First off, a Fire Emblem character doesn't get a lot of focus nowadays, as there are much more on other franchises and new ones as well, Caeda being no exception. Secondly, she is a Pegasus Knight; which hurts her chances even further as Sakurai may not look too highly on non-Lord/villain characters. Finally, there's the more than noticeable chance that we may not even get a new Fire Emblem rep.

She has a shot, but not a very good one. I am Neutral on her inclusion.

40%

Predicting 87.22% for Sonic and Skull Kids gets a 18.22%.

Edit: ---, you only have five veteran nominations.