• Welcome to Smashboards, the world's largest Super Smash Brothers community! Over 250,000 Smash Bros. fans from around the world have come to discuss these great games in over 19 million posts!

    You are currently viewing our boards as a visitor. Click here to sign up right now and start on your path in the Smash community!

Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

Circus

Rhymes with Jerkus
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 9, 2007
Messages
5,164
I don't want anything from you. I already have you and am trying to convince everyone else why they should follow me on you.

I don't get why you think I want to "drown you in posts" or whatever though. Yeah, I posted a bunch while you were gone. What did you expect? Me and everyone else to just wait around until you were ready to play again? You were V/LA for almost a week! Yeah, of course I was going to post while you were gone.

I didn't care if people decided to lynch you while you were gone, because I already know that lynching you is the right thing to do. But I wasn't advocating it. I would have been happy to spend the Day actually going "mano y mano" with you, as apparently both you and Bardull are wont to say, but I couldn't very well do that with you getting yourself room banned, could I? And now you have the audacity to show up in the eleventh hour and throw a fit about how I've just been running away with the thread and talking over you? Get right the **** out.

There are points that I'd still like to get to in your recent novel. That might end up becoming a wall and you're doing to have to deal with it. You don't just get to say "here's a wall, now don't respond to it with a wall because you're just trying to drown me in your evil, mustache-twirling, devil words."
 

#HBC | J

Prince of DGamesia
Joined
Feb 14, 2010
Messages
7,591
Location
Colorado
Circus, I am not saying don't do a wall because I said so. I am saying don't do a wall because it is anti-town to have a huge *** wall battle 16 hours till deadline. If you post another wall, by the time I get back from my final in the afternoon, I will have 0 time to respond so there will be things not finished.
 

Circus

Rhymes with Jerkus
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 9, 2007
Messages
5,164
How is that my problem? I realize you're legitimately short on time but I don't care, and if I have something to say, I'll explain it in as many words as I need.

The truth is that I don't really feel the need to get into a giant wall war with you right now. I've made my points already, and they do have backing, and I'm confident that you will be lynched toDay. Your recent wall doesn't defeat anything I've said. As I said before, I'll probably try to put together one final master post of why no one should be trusting you for the sake of others reading, but you're right when you say that it's just too late in the Day to be getting into a mad scramble of an argument now. But I also want it to be understood that I didn't make it this way. You could have stayed. You could have tried to make time to post and argued with me in chunks if you wanted to. Swords had finals too and he still managed to play the game. I work in retail, and it's Christmas season, and I still managed to play the game. You called V/LA til Sunday and asked for a room ban. We all requested a deadline extension just so you would actually have time to get back into the game, and Nabe extended the Day to Wednesday. And then you show up Tuesday night and start whining about us being out of time for a wall war? Right after YOU POST A WALL, basically daring me to respond to it? You've gotta be kidding me. You do not get to play the victim here.
 

#HBC | J

Prince of DGamesia
Joined
Feb 14, 2010
Messages
7,591
Location
Colorado
I'm not going to lay my entire life out in the open just because you have a problem with me coming back Tuesday when it wasn't even my full fault for the room ban not getting fixed. However, I realize you don't legitamtely care about how your posts effect other people in the game, besides myself. You do realize that other people have to sit down and read our debate and find out their sides for their own reasons?

You state with mighty confidence that you are not going to get lynched when I am feeling the exact same way that people will not fall for your faults and actually go with the right decision and keep me and Ranmaru in this game.

Your right I could have stayed, but I didn't. That's a decison I stand by whole-heartedly and nothing you can say is going to make me regret that over a silly little game in which you have a huge amount more of free time than I do at the time.
 

Circus

Rhymes with Jerkus
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 9, 2007
Messages
5,164
I don't expect you to regret anything. I'm glad you did well in your classes and I'm sure you can owe your ability to focus a great deal to the fact that you didn't have to worry about this game for the past week. All I'm saying is that you don't get to complain about how last minute our final confrontation is, because it is only like this due to decisions you made, even if they were ultimately the best decisions for you.

Moving on.

You have NEVER stated that I was a scum-read or even said clearly that I was someone you were looking at. If that was really the case, you would have brought it to light and I know this for a fact. It wasn't just me who had their eye on you. July did. Swords did. Hell, even Bardull did. However, you wanted to lynch me because it is a closer deal for you. There was already paranoia around my slot from Swords/Kanty(even though that doesn't make much sense) because people were worried about my revive (which you have continuously been ignorant to the fact that Swords and Myself are correct in this debate where it was NOT the worst option and you are choosing to try and paint me in the worst possible light you can with whatever you can grab onto.) and because I am a power player and people always get scared of me during late game especially when I have been playing a great game as town and showing everyone that I am town. You know this paranoia because you have lynched me in the past based on that paranoia when it really mattered and you have saved me when I have been playing a good game. You know a lot better than most how scary I can be so I don't necessarily fault you but at the same time I am still raving about the fact of how your attack on me is terrible.
This paragraph sums up the one thing in your recent wall that I feel the need to comment on, and is probably the only thing that I will be responding to directly. Specifically the first line.

You want to know why I never called you a scum read before toDay's mass claim? Because you weren't one! You're right; you're very good at playing townie, even as scum. You've done so in this game as well, and that deserves to be acknowledged. I had no reason to think you were scum before your hesitance to claim, your subsequent fake claim, and your incredibly questionable Night Actions, which is why my whole argument against you has revolved around those things. I have never pretended to have a scum read on you earlier than that. However, my general paranoia of you, which you brought up here, did cause me to consider you worth investigating on N3. So why didn't I jump you on D4 like you seem to think I should have? Because I'm not a damn standard Cop, that's why! Your character's gender and school attendance, on their own, were not incriminating at all. I had no reason to needle you about that stuff on D4. Only toDay, when we got down to claiming, and you kept trying to dodge me, did I begin to suspect you might have reason to be afraid of getting caught with something. I claimed an investigative role on you, and you freaked and tried to wiggle out of claiming until you knew exactly what I was so you could adapt, but ultimately caved. And when you did, your claim did not match what I already knew about you, validating my then-recently growing suspicion. The rest of this Day phase has just been me trying to translate this to everyone else, because, despite what you also say in your wall, I never expected anyone to follow me blindly. Your statements post-claim and your claimed Night Actions do not add up, and that is observable to everyone, not just me. I'll get more into this shortly.
 

Circus

Rhymes with Jerkus
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 9, 2007
Messages
5,164
How would it be tampered with, J? Do you think I'm an insane Yaso-Cop who gets opposite information on school attendance but correct gender identity? Sounds just a little far fetched, don't you think? Do you think I've been redirected? The only redirection we've even heard about all game, as far as I can recall, happened to Swords, and he was explicitly told he was redirected.

I don't consider that my role has been tampered with because I have no reason to think it has been. You were arguing in favor of Occam's Razor just a few posts ago. Suddenly you're not a fan of it when it cuts toward you?
 

#HBC | Dancer

The nicest of the damned.
Joined
Feb 22, 2009
Messages
1,390
Location
Orlando, Fl
I couldn't bring you back till toDay due to a role stipulation, Kanty.
J, one quick thing that has been in the back of my mind. This. What did you mean here exactly?

Btw J, you missed a lot of points or were just wrong on some.

Like just a couple things.

Why didn't you consult with the town on who to revive? You didn't go over this IIRC.

3.) Woo boy. This point I want to delve right into here and now. Listen, you said you investigated me on N3 and "learned" that I don't go to this school that the flavour suggests. However, If this were true and you feel now it is a guilty. Why did you not push me yesterDay AT ALL?! Where was yoru push? Nowhere. Abso-freaking-lutely nowhere. Yet toDay, you come in guns ablazing with your head held way about the ground saying you have a guilty. WELL if you had this information YESTERDAY, where was it? Nowhere, instead you wait until you come toDay. So, Circus, you seriously need to answer this. This is another big reason as to why I feel you waited specifically for toDay to bring out this info and why I feel it isn't true at all.
Because he didn't consider it a definite guilty until you claimed something to the contrary.

Also really not too sure that Circus has really been "rushing" anything like you're suggesting.

Answer these questions and I will give my thoughts.
 

#HBC | J

Prince of DGamesia
Joined
Feb 14, 2010
Messages
7,591
Location
Colorado
J, one quick thing that has been in the back of my mind. This. What did you mean here exactly?

Why didn't you consult with the town on who to revive?
I didn't think to consult the town since me and Ran discussed the decision during the night/day phase. Plus the "role stipulation" was just Ranmaru mason'ing me last night which is when I got the revive.
 

Circus

Rhymes with Jerkus
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 9, 2007
Messages
5,164
Okay, so just to recap and clarify, here's why everything about what J says is snake oil.

Before we begin, here's some required reading (I guess you don't technically have to read these, but if you don't then you're kind of just taking what I say at face value, which defeats the point):

Post #1570

Quick-hit in between classes before final MT rehearsal.



Ranmaru masoned me. The title was "You have been contacted by Rise!" I opened the PM and it gave me a pm listing that I had been masoned by Ranmaru, I got the revive ability, and I maintained everything else about my role. I chose to revive Kanty today rather at the end because I felt that having someone here at the beginning of the phase would have been better and yeah. I just got the revive as a result of Ranmaru masoning me. I didn't have this ability until then. Plus LyLo would be the best time to use the revive ability even if I didn't have it till now because of the fact that it provides a good buffer.

This is also a side-note but the night phase extension was given because me and Ranmaru requested we have a couple more hours since he is busy with school and we just got the QT/info a bit late from Nabe.

Anyways, gotta run so hopefully I will have time to do something tonight but it is looking sketchy.
Post #1578

I had potential in my original PM so I believe had something to do with it in the beginning and it made sense with how things worked out. It was just "Ran gives you Revive". It was "You have gained a new ability!" Hope that makes sense.
Post #1681

Exactly, I could have, and chose J.

I think it is related, yes. I think he got a day ability because he was now masoned to a day ability user. I don't know why he got a revive, though.

:phone:
Post #1584

That doesn't sound right mathematical wise but that's for speculation when I have time. It seems to revolve more around the NKs with the about of normal doctors to posu-doctors there have been. However the aestic role thing is odd.

I believe Ranmaru has aestic (or whatever it is too). Don't quote me on it though, I'll get him in here to confirm whether or not he does. If Ranmaru does in fact have it, then that makes all of our investigatives claiming to have Aestic, but Circus which makes me even doubt him more. (not saying aestic = town, but it something I am toying with as an anomoly)
Post #1646

Dude, if I had the time I would love to be debating you however time just isn't with me which I even let Nabe know when the game started but I didn't think it would last this long.

N1: Chuckie
N2: Swords
N3: Ranmaru
N4: Ranmaru again due to him masoning me.

What info about my role do you want else Circus? I have given you every detail I know and have repeated it as well so saying that it has been "pulling teeth" to get info is a load of bull. You are not understanding this Circus because you fail to see it from my PoV. You are my biggest scum read who I know for a damn well fact is trying to pull a hail mary on my slot and you have been one of my scum reads since not just toDay but for a couple of phases. That has been known. The thing you don't get is the reason I am not giving you the information that you are claiming to need is because I don't believe you at all and see no reason why I should be co-operating with someone who I know is garunteed scum. It doesn't make sense to me as to why. Some of your questions are just and fair to ask for the rest of town to ask as well but I am not going to hand everything to you on a silver platter. It is illogical for me to do as such and you are being stubborn on this fact.

In fact, most of your points on me only have little truths and do not have full truths which I plan to expose when I get the time but yeah I have an assignment due in 30 minutes online and I am here posting. Ya see the problem?
Post #1659

I'll have Ranmaru clarify that question to you.

Aestic protects from poison, not from the NK. I protect from NKs, not the poison. However Ranmaru never got around to posting his role pm in our QT so I have no way of knowing the aestic thing for real till he gets back.
Okay. With that out of the way....

The Story of How Night 4 Went Down (As Told By J and Ran)

Ran, having finally disovered his masoning ability by...surviving to D5 (?), decides to wager the game on a J town read and decides to mason J. Nabe opens up a QT for them that very Night, apparently before J has even sent in his Night Action regarding who he's going to guard that Night. They apparently do not exchange role PMs of any kind, but supposedly talk about things. Probably about what to do with the new reviving ability J has apparently just received and who to use it on, although the way J speaks about it, it sounds like it was pretty much all his decision. J, in a way that has never even sort of been explain, also becomes under the impression that Ranmaru is ascetic, even though he's not and never claimed to be.

With this knowledge, J decides to guard Ranmaru N4. Then D5 starts and J uses his reviving ability to bring back Kantrip shortly into the Day, apparently out of the goodness of his heart, or so he would have us believe.

Why That's Bull****

J apparently always had a modifier for "potential." He theorizes his gaining the revival ability has at least something to do with that, but was activated through Ran masoning him. This seems illogical, as Ran apparently could have masoned anyone he wanted. We're expected to believe that he also just happened to choose the person who gets a bonus from masoning with someone? Doubtful. It's easy to see why J and Ran would have different theories on this though, as shown by how differently they talk about how Ran's masoning role actually works. J talks about it like Ranmaru found a specific person, which is why J "unlocked" a hidden ability. Where Ran talks about it like he just partner up with J because he liked him and J got a day ability because Ran himself has a day ability. Like, whoever Ran masoned would have gotten that ability, regardless of who it was. But then why does J have "potential" if the revival ability is attributed solely to Ranmaru masoning someone, rather than J being the one he has to mason specifically.

This discrepancy is easily explained if we accept that J and Ran discussed making a mason gambit, but didn't clarify the details with each other, resulting in different stories. Ran goes with "I got a masoning ability and decided to mason J, who then got an ability," while J goes with "Ran found me, his mason buddy, and I unlocked my true potential."

Next, there's the issue of J deciding to guard Ranmaru on N4, despite the fact that everything J learns, or claims to think he learns, about Ran that Night should repel him from such an idea. He guards a player that he thinks is immune to the one killing method that we have soft proof actually still exists in the game, which is not only useless, but detrimental, as it raises J's chances of being poisoned without defending Ranmaru from anything.

Based on this information, one of two things MUST be true:

1. J actually thought there was a standard killer to watch out for, and was trying to guard against that, or...

2. J never thought Ran was ascetic and only said that to try to take a cheap at my slot by framing me as the only investigative role without the ascetic modifier. This way of framing things is observably inaccurate, as Kantrip is not ascetic, and Ranmaru denounces the ascetic idea as a result of this.

Option two is obviously the correct one, but let's explore number one just in case, as it has its own set of problems.

First, J can't protect against even a standard killer; he can only sacrifice himself to the killer in exchange for saving the person the killer was actually trying to dispose of. This already makes his choice to protect Ranmaru dubious, as Ran and his role aren't exactly worth sacrificing yourself for, but this is made even more dubious by the fact that J was given the ability that Night to revive another player. J suddenly had an ability that had the potential to be REALLY useful and important, one which he can't use if he dies. And yet, he still decides to protect Ran. On the Night when he is actually least expendable. Keep in mind, J lists the possibility of a standard NK as the reason an ascetic Ran would be worth guarding, so he would knowingly be sacrificing himself to an immediate kill here. It's not like he's just planning on taking the poison and then reviving someone the next Day before the poison takes him.

Then there's the whole idea that J thought it was a good idea to just immediately revive Kantrip without consulting any of us which I've hit on so many times that I won't even summarize it again here. Basically just a complete waste of the ability that results in nothing but J polishing up his image for a brief, fleeting moment.

Also, J never explains why he allegedly decided to guard Ran on N3. Remember, that was before he was masoned by him. He had decided to guard Swords on N2 (pretty logical), then Soup got killed and made us skip the entirety of D3, and J then decides to guard Ran the next Night. Why? Did something about Raz's, Soup's or BRB's flips make J suddenly trust Swords less? Or find Ran more trustworthy? Or find Ran more likely be attacked? Even if he did think Ran would be more likely to be attacked than Swords for some reason, what about Ran would J consider worth of sacrificing himself for? Remember, this is only N3. Ranmaru hadn't even claimed in thread by that point.

Cue J going V/LA for literally the rest of the Day phase, leaving all of these holes in logic wide open.

There. I think that's all of the important bits. There are one or two other things I wanted to comment on, but they have more to do with what we should be doing after J's flip, so I'll hold off on them for now.

Sorry it's a wall J. That's just how it goes. These are pretty much all points that I brought up over the last several days. That you are only able to respond to them now is not my fault. I have little sympathy for your situation because you're scum and you deserve to get lynched anyway.

Someone be a hero and make this J wagon move. We've only got about 12 hours left.
 

Kantrip

Kantplay
Joined
Jul 11, 2010
Messages
10,188
Location
B.C. Canada
Ack it's so one-sided.

J, plain and simple, cannot be town. Everything Circus said and more is valid, and if J is town who screwed up reaaaaaaally bad, multiple times, with every facet of his role, then I guess we had it coming.

Overswarm. If there is a scumflip, we need to see a dead Ran toMorrow. If there is a townflip, we need to see a dead Circus. If you AND the player you should have shot are alive toMorrow, you'll have some explaining to do. Of course, if a townflip happens followed by you not shooting the right person, we lose, so I guess we got played there and I should've stuck to my guns. But whatever.

Circus, on a scumflip use your ability on me. Now that claims are out it won't be useful anymore anyways. Got this?

Vote: J
 

Circus

Rhymes with Jerkus
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 9, 2007
Messages
5,164
Circus, on a scumflip use your ability on me. Now that claims are out it won't be useful anymore anyways. Got this?
Got it.

Note that I reserve the right to deviate from this if I feel that J's flip incriminates you in some manner.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
Kantrip said:
Overswarm. If there is a scumflip, we need to see a dead Ran toMorrow. If there is a townflip, we need to see a dead Circus. If you AND the player you should have shot are alive toMorrow, you'll have some explaining to do. Of course, if a townflip happens followed by you not shooting the right person, we lose, so I guess we got played there and I should've stuck to my guns. But whatever.
Possibly. I'd have to do some math. If the math works out to where we have another Day phase if I don't shoot (but don't if I miss), I probably won't shoot with even a 100% chance of killing scum. There's not going to be anything stopping us from lynching Circus tomorrow if J flips town, but we get additional results and I still have a shot (which effectively makes lylo one step away).
 

Kantrip

Kantplay
Joined
Jul 11, 2010
Messages
10,188
Location
B.C. Canada
Dude. The math isn't that difficult.

You fail to shoot Circus on a townflip or Ran on a scumflip and you will be dying. There is literally NO reason to turn away a guaranteed scumflip. Unless you're going to try to tell me those shots wouldn't result in that, in which case I'd gladly listen.

We lynch wrong, we DON'T have another Day. We lynch right, we do have another day but we're still in MyLo. You shoot Ran and we actually gain a mislynch. Don't be stupid.
 

Circus

Rhymes with Jerkus
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 9, 2007
Messages
5,164
Fair, but I hope you'll look at things objectively and realize it won't. That action is important to me.
Like I said, if J flips something akin to "Mafia Reviving Recruiter," then that's obviously going to make me wary of following what you say, and I think that's reasonable.

Barring that, I trust you. And I really don't have my eyes set on anyone else in particular for toNight. My ability apparently won't even work on half of the remaining roster anyway.
 

BarDulL

Town Vampire
Joined
Mar 17, 2008
Messages
5,211
Location
Austin, Texas
olawd.

J I hope you have something to say to that gigantic Wall du Cirque or I might just kinda hafta hard body you and Ran, which would be kinda whack 'cause man Kanji/Rise safeclaims + Ran's super legit claim on D4 ending up being scum sided would just be like W-T-F.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
Dude. The math isn't that difficult.

You fail to shoot Circus on a townflip or Ran on a scumflip and you will be dying. There is literally NO reason to turn away a guaranteed scumflip. Unless you're going to try to tell me those shots wouldn't result in that, in which case I'd gladly listen.

We lynch wrong, we DON'T have another Day. We lynch right, we do have another day but we're still in MyLo. You shoot Ran and we actually gain a mislynch. Don't be stupid.
It's not stupidity, it's that if we can lynch this guaranteed scum we can save my shot for anyone else. Remember, I lose my shot once I hit scum. I'll do the math, don't worry about it. You don't need to threaten me either, because if not using my shot doesn't result in us dying on a J townflip, only an idiot would lynch me instead of Circus.

Depending on the flip I have an idea of who I may shoot.
 

#HBC | Dancer

The nicest of the damned.
Joined
Feb 22, 2009
Messages
1,390
Location
Orlando, Fl
*Shakes head*

I'm sorry, but I really just don't know. I know that I said that I made my decision, but that was before Circus pointed out how J has been wrong in every single instance.

For me to come to a good decision on this would require me to reread the entire game and look for connections, which we simply don't have time for at this point.

J's 1798 reads genuine to me, but honestly Circus has been reading genuine to me to this Day phase as well. If we were to remove Circus's "guilty" from the situation I would honestly see this as TvT. Like, I'm really tempted to go with the WIFOMie idea that Circus's results are jacked. Why? I wouldn't know. Maybe because Kanji skips out on class? I know that that's really WIFOMie, but still, it's not as farfetched as every other idea that has been tossed around.

Like, J claimed mason reviver. That does seem really powerful for town, but I REALLY don't want to base opinions off of what does or does not seem OP, especially considering that if you flip it around to scum being the reviver, you now have an OP scum team (in a sense). Like, sure extra townie alive may be bad for scum, but it can basically clear a mafia. Plus, it's just too weird of an advantage to give scum. So, the same way OS is using the fact that this town seems too OP, I'm using the fact that if it was reversed scum would of gotten a really weird advantage so to simply disregard this type of speculation.

That's just one aspect of it. Circus claimed a guilty on J was a weird slot for Circus scum to claim a guilty on, and I read his pressure on J as legit. He really does seem to believe the things he's saying against J.

J and Ran claiming masons is just weird no matter how you look at it.

J's recent response to Circus has what looks to me to be townie ignorance in it. Like, either he's ignoring some of Circus's points, or he just doesn't get some of the things that people are holding him accountable for, like the fact that he used the revive ability hastily. I lean towards the latter, with J's focus on on things that no one has brought up, like how supposedly Circus is "too confident" in his reads against J.

Ran claiming the way he did Day 4 with the intent of lynching OS only seems pro town, and by association, J town.

We indeed know that Circus is an investigative role.

J's play in Days past reads townie to me. Circus's play . . . not so much. Day 1 was bad, justification for being on the Chuckie wagon was . . . weird, and he had to relay on a WIFOMie assumption that RR was a mafia protective in order to justify the rest of his case against RR.

Also, lets not even bring up OS into this equation, who's supporting Circus (yikes), and has been playing up the paranoia this entire game. Clear or not, he has potential in his role modifier and ironically that makes me paranoid. I still like Circus's play toDay, but besides from him I don't like the wagon against J at all.

So, what I'm getting at is, maybe we can swing a quick lynch on to someone else? Idk, maybe someone who hasn't been here? I.e., someone doing exactly what scum would want to do in this situation? Like, JTB, or PJB, or maybe even Kary?

No? It's too late for that?

Well, if I had to pick, it would be J to go. It's true that J has just been really sloppy with his Night actions and the revive if he were town. It's true that Ran was a weird pick to guard against Night 3. It's true that it's weird for J to use his ability at all on someone completely inactive like Ran, thus saying that he valued Ran's life over his.

Now, to be clear, I don't feel like any of this makes him deffo scum. In matter of fact, it kinda feels like J's being treated as Chuckie version 2.0. If you can throw a lot of small things against someone, then they're more likely scum, right? A lot of small things that don't make sense from a town PoV thus must be coming from a scum PoV, right? Well, no. J hastily using the revive is actually more understandable from and anti-town PoV than it is from a scum PoV. Like, I can imagine a townie getting over-excited about using that ability. This said, everything Circus has pointed out is enough to tip me over the edge with lynching J over Circus.

NOW LETS LYNCH SOMEONE ELSE PLEASE!

Vote: PJB

I know this won't happen but I can't against my good conscious bring myself to vote J, and I'm kinda hoping some of you will see the light after this stream-of-conscious post that I'm making. If this doesn't happen and we need someone else to vote J to end the Day, then I will.
 

#HBC | Dancer

The nicest of the damned.
Joined
Feb 22, 2009
Messages
1,390
Location
Orlando, Fl
It's not stupidity, it's that if we can lynch this guaranteed scum we can save my shot for anyone else. Remember, I lose my shot once I hit scum. I'll do the math, don't worry about it. You don't need to threaten me either, because if not using my shot doesn't result in us dying on a J townflip, only an idiot would lynch me instead of Circus.

Depending on the flip I have an idea of who I may shoot.
OS, you can agree that it's probably 6 vs. 4 right now, right?

Then you can also agree if we mislynch toDay, and you don't shoot, then after a mafia kill, it becomes 4 vs. 4, right? That is, it's game?

OS, toNight you have to shoot if we mislynch. I don't see how you could disagree otherwise.
 

#HBC | Kary

Fiend of Fire
Joined
Apr 10, 2012
Messages
4,965
Location
그루그 화산
well ****

I was seriously not expecting a huge wall of Jte.

J if you're town and you've ****ed up your night actions and your claim, you need to address that. Except I take it you're not around to do that, because you're too busy more or less ranting and Circus, bringing up a whole lot of points that don't even really hang together. I mean, why are you teling Circus you're town in big letters if you think he's scum? And are you really accusing him of trying to rush your lynch when apparently he has a guilty on you? And while you're at it you don't like PJB?

I'm sorry but you don't look like a townie on the verge of losing the game. I love you but you've got to go, and gorfdammit please forgive me if i'm ****ing this up.

Vote: J
 

#HBC | Dancer

The nicest of the damned.
Joined
Feb 22, 2009
Messages
1,390
Location
Orlando, Fl
Kary, you said that J's response doesn't read like a townie about to die in LYLO. Go into that, make me feel better about this unavoidable lynch.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
OS, you can agree that it's probably 6 vs. 4 right now, right?

Then you can also agree if we mislynch toDay, and you don't shoot, then after a mafia kill, it becomes 4 vs. 4, right? That is, it's game?

OS, toNight you have to shoot if we mislynch. I don't see how you could disagree otherwise.
So assuming they didn't poison one of the three ascetics, you think that it'll be game because it'll be 4 v 4? I thought that too at first which is why I brought it up to town but I was stupid and thought losing my vote for a Day would result in issues only after toMorrow.

If I shoot, it'll be 4 v 3, right? If J flips town I can kill Circus and it'll be 4 town vs. 3 scum?

But I can't vote if I hit scum, right?

So it'll be 7 players, 4 to lynch, with 3 town and 3 scum votes. Guaranteed No Lynch, resulting in a poison. Same scenario as if I didn't shoot and we just went for the lynch toMorrow.

The other things that are making me scratch my chin is that we have three ascetics and JTB said someone's alignment could change. If mafia only poison, doesn't that mean they tie if it gets to 3v3 town ascetic v scum? If someone's alignment can still change, doesn't that mean that either mafia can recruit (game over no matter what), a mafia can BE recruited (!), or there is still the ability for someone to be recruited to the indie faction?

I haven't ran the numbers yet to see when it would be most beneficial to shoot (assuming they hit a poison, miss a poison once, miss a poison twice, etc.) but I do know that if we mislynch toMorrow it is a guaranteed loss no matter what.

I might shoot if J flips town just to hit scum so we don't get aced, but honestly I feel like this will be a domino effect if the game isn't over on this flip.
 

#HBC | Kary

Fiend of Fire
Joined
Apr 10, 2012
Messages
4,965
Location
그루그 화산
don't phrase it like that, Swords :c

just reading your post now.... we're still on slightly different wavelengths :/

Swords said:
J's recent response to Circus has what looks to me to be townie ignorance in it. Like, either he's ignoring some of Circus's points, or he just doesn't get some of the things that people are holding him accountable for, like the fact that he used the revive ability hastily. I lean towards the latter, with J's focus on on things that no one has brought up, like how supposedly Circus is "too confident" in his reads against J.
I want to talk about this, J's ignorance, and hopefully answer your question in the process.
Like... let me phrase it this way. J's been away for a long time, so coming into the thread he maybe doesn't know what's up exactly, perhaps doesn't know which way the waggons are swinging. On the other hand, he knows it's Lylo, so in my mind the priority has got to be saving himself. If he's scum, he's in the ****, but he can much more afford to die here.
But when he comes into the thread, all his time is spent picking up things he doesn't like. He goes so far to say that Circus doesn't even have a case against him, and i'm kinda kicking myself for not making J a bulletpoint list to respond to. But I just don't really feel that J could be that ignorant as town that he doesn't notice there's questions about his night actions, or whether townJ really thinks he can just shout them down and say there's nothing wrong with his role.
To me, saying something like 'Circus is too confident in his role' is trying to score points against Circus, when really all J needs to do is clear himself. We've spent all Day looking at Circus and his actions, we already know about him. If this is townJ just being anti-town, and not even intentionally, then ****ing hell; but that's not what it looks like to me.
 

#HBC | Kary

Fiend of Fire
Joined
Apr 10, 2012
Messages
4,965
Location
그루그 화산
I mean... mabye J just doesn't appreciate that he's going to die, but saying that he's already kinda appealing to OS to reconsider at the end of his wall. And hell, i'm sure he's been in the firing line before and knows what he should be doing to come out on top. so yeah :/
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
I'm down with a PJB/JTB, or Kary lynch (in that order), but not toDay. It's 50/50 between J and Circus and we don't have time to swing it anyway.

@mod request votecount

I like Kary more from the participation in this game but both Kary's and JTB's claim seem a little funky to me. Kary has no results all game and JTB just knows random information (which we were told mafia and indies would have)? I dunno. Kary's actually participating and has a paper trail though.

PJB has been a bit too careful for my tastes and seems to only appear when someone attacks him, but his reasoning hasn't really been off. It's pretty much a tie between him and JTB at the moment. PJB for selective appearances and JTB for his claim and NO appearances.

Regardless, it's J or Circus for toDay and my vote is on J. Your wishy-washiness on this makes me raise an eyebrow at you Swords, so I might swing my vote to you if J flips scum. I understand that some of us are going to be backing the wrong horse on this and you're at a disadvantage since you came in at the crossroads, but saying "Circus is right, but I don't want to lynch J" and trying to swing the lynch to someone else this late isn't a town play and you know it.

@mod request prod on JTB

I don't remember his last post. I feel like I just missed it or something but upon further inspection I have discovered he last posted 5 days ago.

Then 5 days before that.

These were his posts:

So I've been spending the week on others game and I'm done putting this off. I'm not going to post reads on every single player as I know I'll just overwhelm myself and ignore
the game again.

So i want to know which players are the most important right now and necessary to have a read on. I've seen Circus' name thrown around alot, so I'm assuming he's one i need to read first. Give me other names to and I'll get actual content up tonight after work.

:phone:

:phone:
I'm going to just claim now since I haven't done anything this game and really have no reason to stall it.

I'm Naoki Konishi, Town Sadsack. I don't have any abilities, but at the start of each day, I mope to myself and consider the state of the game in a series of "what ifs".

I can outline what each night has said if people want it, but for the most part they have been like what I got at the end of last night.

If I am to consider my what ifs to be true, there are 4-5 scum left in the game, the poisoner is still alive, and someone can still have their alignment changed. It ends with me thinking about what my friend Narukami-san would do if he was in my position.
So whether we end up lynching him later or not I want more out of him, he's only got 22 posts.
 

#HBC | Dancer

The nicest of the damned.
Joined
Feb 22, 2009
Messages
1,390
Location
Orlando, Fl
Yeah OS well it took J forever and a day to respond, and my read is based off of him, so tough cookies.

Also I feel like my wishy-washyness should be the only appropriate response given the situation. No one should be confident about this lynch.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
Getting to this last.

J said:
lright I want to bring up something you said earlier to discredit my "reviver" claim as you called it. This is a private game. The set-up is made to be wonky and weird so having multiple WEAK protectives is a balanced portion in itself. July can't be NK'd when she protects someone, I can. Rajam was a jailer who RB'd, Chuckie was a Posu-Doctor. Plus with multiple weak investigatives that don't determine alignment, Ranmaru's role gives a clear which is something town would need in terms of the recruiting Inquistor role and the way that worked out.
I've been making "wonky" setups that have been balanced for years and I know Nabe wouldn't balance a game in that regard. Ranmaru's mason ability is a death sentence for town in a game with mafia and recruiters. How does it even work if you were masoned, and then recruited? It's got jagged seams and a mason ability on its own isn't very strong. It basically comes down to whether you think Nabe would have a 3 man clear swing like this. If it's in there for town, I can't see how they'd lose if they got it or win if they didn't, it's that huge.

I get you don't trust silver platters, but what I know you do trust is Occam's Razor. The most simpilest answer is this: Circus is lying. There is not only me, there is Ranmaru, and Kanty who all corrabrate my story. Kanty came back with his town pm, Ranmaru said he would have died if I was not town, and you have even said yourself that I have been town throughout this entire game plus the fact that my role would be OP for scum to have especially when I could have just revived BRB/Le or someone else with a gun. The thing I want to clear up to you, is that you are just listening to Circus because he has been here tooting his horn for longer than I have due to my V/LA.
Occam's Razor says the opposite. Circus' results are ratified by a third party. You are only supported by those that have supported you. There's a lot of scum left, and if they wanted they could attempt an alpha at this point and potentially win. If they could, I can't see Circus doing that. The only person supporting his night actions was Swords and Circus hasn't really had any backup for the lynch.

If Circus is scum, who are his scummates? Where are they? They could have lynched you immediately. JTB being scum is a possibility and him just not being here, but really they could be pushing you super hard if that was the case when really it's just Circus. PJB has been voting for you and you could toss him into the scum Circus pile but who else?

You have yourself, Ranmaru, and Bardull all voting for Circus and Kantrip has been pushing for the Circus lynch all Day until just recently.

You've got me and Swords talking about the lynch and who to choose and what to do. Are we scum playing the fence when we could have lynched either of you at the drop of a hat?

Occam's Razor doesn't say that Circus is scum. It says that you are scum. The only way it doesn't is if we

A) severely misunderstand the amount of scum in this game

B) are unaware of a mafia bus driver or redirect

The idea that there is actually NO mafia has been tossed around in my head; maybe there's ONLY indies, but I don't see that. Maybe the persona gifts were about which games they were from and we were just paranoid?

But there's no way to tell, and plus JTB's claim:
JTB said:
I'm Naoki Konishi, Town Sadsack. I don't have any abilities, but at the start of each day, I mope to myself and consider the state of the game in a series of "what ifs".

I can outline what each night has said if people want it, but for the most part they have been like what I got at the end of last night.

If I am to consider my what ifs to be true, there are 4-5 scum left in the game, the poisoner is still alive, and someone can still have their alignment changed. It ends with me thinking about what my friend Narukami-san would do if he was in my position
That means that we have mafia, or JTB is anti-town and is simply propogating what we already believe and spreading paranoia for late game.

I can't discount all this stuff.

And this is also why I disagree with everyone who says you are scum. You are being analytical on the situation and trying to look at the best thing, but coming off on the wrong side of the coin. Kind of like Celeb Rehab where you thought KevinM was scum and I thought Macman was scum. I just feel you are looking at things through a different light which is incorrect. I think it's downright silly for people to have you as on a mafia team with Circus especially if people WILL REMEMBER THE NAs! It essentially clears you with Swords corroborating it. I mean, people who are trying to connect you two are reaching and need to get their heads out of the wine bottle. Simplest answer for the OS read: He's town.

Anyways, that's my catch-up post. I'm done I need to study and I am tired and need a break after this post.
I appreciate the sentiment, but you know flattery has the opposite effect on me. I'm not a play and I won't be a play toMorrow or the Day after that if the game goes on that long. I'm not looking to save my own skin, I'm looking to lynch scum.

I fully understand I can be wrong. I was wrong on Chuckie, but this time I'm not following a gut read down a long path (okay, the Chuckie thing was a bit of excited tunneling, I'll admit that). Instead I'm following Night Actions which so far have proven to be trustworthy.

Circus said:
On N1, I investigated Jdietz (Bardull's slot), and my action was blocked. I wanted Bardull's claim on this to know how likely it is that we are dealing with a roleblocker. And I just wanted Bardull to have every reason to be honest about his claim as well.

On N2, I investigated BRB, and learned that he was male and did not attend Yasogami High School. Though that ended up being useless information.

On N3, I investigated J, and learned that he is male and also does not attend Yasogami High School. This action is also proven by Swords' role. I am the other investigation he saw.

Last Night, I investigated JTB, and learned that he is male and does attend Yasogami High School. Nothing seems to be off there, at least as far as what I recall from glancing at his character's wiki previously.
None of this seems to be wrong.

Your play this game hasn't been bad J, as town or scum alignment, but the evidence points to you being the most likely scum between you and Circus.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
Yeah OS well it took J forever and a day to respond, and my read is based off of him, so tough cookies.

Also I feel like my wishy-washyness should be the only appropriate response given the situation. No one should be confident about this lynch.
I agree, but you have to admit it'd cast you in a less favorable light if we ended up getting a No Lynch.

The Day ends at 1 p.m. EST, which means 3 hours from now.
 

#HBC | Dancer

The nicest of the damned.
Joined
Feb 22, 2009
Messages
1,390
Location
Orlando, Fl
*Haven't read OS's big post*

@OS: I know. I'm prepared to hammer J. Just not right now. Lets get final thoughts and then I'll hammer him around noonish.
 

#HBC | Dancer

The nicest of the damned.
Joined
Feb 22, 2009
Messages
1,390
Location
Orlando, Fl
Occam's Razor doesn't say that Circus is scum. It says that you are scum. The only way it doesn't is if we

A) severely misunderstand the amount of scum in this game

B) are unaware of a mafia bus driver or redirect

The idea that there is actually NO mafia has been tossed around in my head; maybe there's ONLY indies, but I don't see that. Maybe the persona gifts were about which games they were from and we were just paranoid?[/QUOTE]

Question: How does bus driver or redirect confirm Circus scum?

Btw, I'm pretty sure that the original post of this game disconfirms the bolded.

In private I even asked Nabe much earlier (out of paranoia) if Ryker's slot was actually part of the standard mafia. He told me that the mafia this game will flip with the word "mafia" in their roles.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
EDWOP: I shouldn't have said "confirmed Circus scum," but instead I should have asked "make J scum less likely?"
It doesn't, but it makes the 50/50 exchange a non-imperative.

This all stems from Circus essentially getting a "guilty" on J. If he thought he targeted J but was actually redirected to someone else, the possibility of TvT exists. Currently we have no evidence of this, thus it is guaranteed TvS or SvS, and I don't think I need to explain why it isn't the latter. Thus, 50/50 chance of hitting scum.
 

#HBC | Dancer

The nicest of the damned.
Joined
Feb 22, 2009
Messages
1,390
Location
Orlando, Fl
Being on a wagon with PJB, OS, and even to a lesser extent Circus (still hold that his play prior to toDay has been bad) and Kantrip just feels all sorts of wrong. But this really isn't going to go another direction. I actually am tempted to try to stall for a no lynch, but that would be really arrogant of me.

unvote vote J

I'm sorry J.
 

#HBC | Kary

Fiend of Fire
Joined
Apr 10, 2012
Messages
4,965
Location
그루그 화산
it's a nightmare decision, Swords, but then mylo etc. always is.

if this plays out right we'll have more or less cracked the whole thing. my gut is doing somersaults to be honest, wish i didn't get so involved in these games sometimes.

anyhow, peace. fingers crossed and all that.
 

#HBC | Dancer

The nicest of the damned.
Joined
Feb 22, 2009
Messages
1,390
Location
Orlando, Fl
I'm here guys, but right now I feel little inclination to be active.

My present opening strategy was that I feel like a man who takes risks. I can roll a 6 sided die, and different stuff happens based on the number. I have no idea what numbers will do what, but I know big numbers are worse than smaller ones.

So I rolled it, got a 6, and lost my guess for D1. So I dunno jack right now. Guess we'll see what happens. I'm still keeping up with the game, but I can't imagine I'm the only one who doesn't know their alignment, and that makes for pretty lousy scum hunting.
FFS I just found this. Claims a female character but states that he "feels like a man who takes risks." Well gg I'm screwed.
 
Top Bottom