Rate Their Chances Day Sixty: Ashley Robbins and Ragna the BloodEdge

Peach - 100% (She's from Nintendo's flagship franchise and not including her would be a waste of a move set)

Starfy - 50% (never played any of his games, but I've heard he's pretty popular in Japan. Not so much elsewhere, though).

@OmegaXVII: What's the difference between the Snake we have in Brawl and Solid Snake?

Super Smash Bros. Fan said:

@OmegaXVII: What's the difference between the Snake we have in Brawl and Solid Snake?

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I'm guessing you don't know much about Snake do you? Solid Snake is his full name, nothing different.

Thanks for pointing it out, I thought I was nominating him for veterans for some strange reason

OmegaXVII said:

I'm guessing you don't know much about Snake do you? Solid Snake is his full name, nothing different.

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Actually its his Code Name, his first name is David. A few fans add "Pliskin" as his last name, as that was the name he went under while in hiding in MGS2.

But yeah, nerding aside, the Snake is Smash Bros. is Solid Snake from MGS1 and 2. With a bit of Naked Snake thrown in via costumes.

Poll has ended. Results, along with other things, will come when Day Seven starts.

Seven stars? Are you talking about Paper Mario?

Anyway I can't wait for the next round. =D

Prediction for the next round

Ness 100%

Meg Man 75%

@OmegaXVII: I meant "start".

@berserker01: I will accept that score, even thought you came in a bit early.

Updates: This is the only time I will allow people to vote before the day starts. After today, you must wait until the next day starts. Which means that you will not be able to vote in between the end of Day Seven and beginning of Day Eight and so on.

Also, for those who want to keep up with this topic but worry about missing a day, if you accept, every day when this starts, I will give you a PM telling you that the next day has started along with all necessary in formations. You may cancel this if you have no more need to have reminders sent to you.

Peach reception to what people thought of her likeliness was exceptionally positive, scoring at a fabulous 99.29%. She was incredibly pleased at the score she was given and danced around gracefully at the score she got.

Starfy's score wasn't great in likelihood, although he did decently with a 66.71% as an overall. However, people thought he deserved a spot as a playable character, which like Ridley's, were astounding, scoring at an excellent 4.8. Starfy smiles and waved his fins at the crowd who cheered his appearance.

So both left, hoping for a position in SSB4 and to be acknowledge as among the fighters that would appear in SSB4. With them leaving came two highly known characters, Ness, protagonists of Earthbound and part of the original twelve and Mega Man, a prominent third-party character. Can we expect both characters to return? Your opinion may very help see what their fate will likely be.

Mega Man and Ness can now be rated for likeliness. The poll ends at 7:50 PM CST and I will analyze both chances as soon as possible.

Ray (Custom Robo) is on deck, therefore, can be rated for the overall score he gets on Day Eight.

Alien Vision said:

Sorry buddy, I HAD to do it. D:

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It's okay, I won't penalize you this time around. BTW, make sure to use your nominations.

Edit: Forgot to say this, but because Barbasol was the closest to predicting Starfy's average, he has ten nominations today.

EDIT- Ah, nice! I'll add in some more nominations accordingly.

Newcomers
--------------
Andy x5
Genesect x1
Duck Hunt Dog x1
Black Knight x2
Mach Rider x1

Veterans
----------
Olimar x5

Ness, Boy Wonder~ 89% Ness is one of the original twelve, and the first rep of the Earthbound series. Buuuut, he was supposedly almost cut out of Brawl in sake of Lucas. That, and Mother 3 never made it overseas... So does this series REALLY deserve two representatives? Given one of Lucas or Ness are possible to be proverbially hit by a double-decker bus on the way to smash 4, I can only give Ness an 89%. Lucas is the more recent star, but Ness is global and long-standing. I predict one of the two, with Ness the more likely.

Megaman, the fighting robot! ~86% Hands down the most likely third-party addition and we know Capcom and Nintendo both are open to the idea. Barring any unforeseen complications, it's win-win for the Blue Bomber in Sm4sh.

Predictions:
Ray - 72%

Reserved!

Ness - 100% (The most well known Earthbound/Mother character, plus one of the original twelve.)

Mega Man - 48% (Nintendo and Capcom generally have good relations, but Capcom seems more interested in MS and Sony these days. Its possible, as he is a well known and loved character, but it boils down to if Capcom is willing to let Nintendo use him).

Ness - 99%

The Mother series is in a peculiar state right now - both in Smash Bros. and outside of it. However, I doubt we'll see Ness or Lucas disappear anytime soon now that they are entrenched in Smash Bros. history. Did Mother deserve a second rep? IMO, no. But should it keep both of it's roster spots now that it has them? Yes. The 1% represents the slim chance that Mother loses one of it's characters, perhaps for another such as Claus; repeat, slim chance.

IMO, Ness is deserving of his place in the Smash Bros. series, and moreso than Lucas. He is deserving (5) in my eyes.

Megaman - 85%

By far the most likely new third-party character we'll get out of SSB4, Megaman has a lot going for him; popularity, significance of him and his company in Nintendo's history, and more. He's not a shoo-in - the loss of his creator at Capcom, the recent decrease in significance of his series overall, and the simple state of being third-party -, but he's the likely candidate for a new third-party rep.

Megaman is plenty deserving of a spot, and so I award him a 5.

Nominations:
Veterans
Toon Link x3
Luigi x2

Newcomers
Jiro x3
Captain Syrup x2

My Predictions:
Pikachu - 99.25%
Ray - 67.5%

Ness - 100%
Mega Man - 50% (The most likely and deserving 3rd party character, Capcom was mentioned in an interview, a much larger part of Nintendo history then both Snake and Sonic, most of MM franchise games are on Nintendo consoles, HUGE moveset potential, the only part that hurts him is being 3rd party) I give him a 5.

@Alien Vision: You can't nominate Ganondorf, he has already been polled. Pick someone else that was not polled (I'd recommend checking out the Candidates section in the OP if you have no idea who the previous, current, and future candidates are).

Barbasol said:

Ness is one of the original twelve, and the first rep of the Earthbound series. Buuuut, he was supposedly almost cut out of Brawl in sake of Lucas.

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No, that was Melee.

finalark said:

Mega Man - 48% (Nintendo and Capcom generally have good relations, but Capcom seems more interested in MS and Sony these days. Its possible, as he is a well known and loved character, but it boils down to if Capcom is willing to let Nintendo use him).

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Actually, Capcom-Unity contacted Capcom of Japan to get Mega Man in SSB4. He may very well be on his way (You should follow the SSB4 thread sometimes).

Ness

Although almost cut from Melee, he is part of the original twelve and all of them have been playable in all three games. Unless for some weird reasons they want to cut Ness due to "relevancy" issues that shouldn't interfere with vets, Ness is going to stay. If an Earthbound rep is getting the boot, Lucas is much more likely.

95%

Mega Man

My #1 most wanted character which will not change. Being my favorite video game character and obviously made for fighting, he is IMO, the only truly deserving third-party rep that is not playable yet. I vote Deserving.

As for likelihood, he is by far the very best shot we have at a third-party character. He is easily the most wanted third-party character (Among the most wanted characters period), highly relevant, and very important to not only Nintendo, but the gaming industry. Unlike Sonic and Snake, he was known to be synonymous with Nintendo and for the most part, remained that way to this day. The best titles from his series are on Nintendo platforms, something that Sony or Microsoft can't brag about, not to mention Capcom and Nintendo have a generally good relationship with each other, being one of the few noticeable supporters of the Gamecube and Wii and among the best during the NES and SNES days. To further seal him as a likely character, there's also the fact that Capcom-Unity contacted to Capcom of Japan to go to Sakurai to discuss about getting The Blue Bomber in which if that turns out to be positive, it results in us getting him.

Unlike other characters, the only thing he has to worry about is Ryu from Street Fighter and possibility of no third-party characters. But even if we lose Snake and/or Sonic, if Sora Ltd. is still accepting of third-party characters, he will probably be in SSB4.

As you can see, Mega Man has a resume so god that he is among the Top 10 most likely potential newcomers for SSB4 period. Only a select few have a better chance of getting in then him. That is extremely impressive and I have much faith he'll be playable. I am proud to give him an...

87.50%

Nominate (Veterans):
Donkey Kong (x5)

Nominate (Newcomers):
Victini (x1)
Saki Amamiya (x1)
Medusa (x1)
Takamaru (x1)
Paper Mario (x1)

I predict 54.20% for Ray.

Ganondorf has already received ratings and we have already decided his score. As I will not be polling the same characters twice, you cannot nominate a character that already has results in, is being polled, or is on Deck.

Mega Man 75% - He's the most likely 3rd party character so far. He also has the biggest chance.

Ness 100% - He's not going anywhere. Like it or not

Ness - 95%. Original 12 member, probably most popular Earthbound character. Unique from most (other than Lucas) Can't see him being cut

Megaman - 65% Better than average chance, if 3rd parties are involved again, he is definitely the best option. He also is extremely popular and has been around since the NES. He really has the whole package. Bit question is whether or not they want to add more 3rd parties

5 nominations for DK and for Geno

Ness- 99%. Hurrdurrr

Megaman- 90%. If he isn't in this time, then what the hell.

Ain't nominating nobody.

Ness is 99.99% coming back.

Megaman I will give a high percentage too only because Sven from Capcom has gone on the record stating he has tried getting the ball rolling in getting the Japanese offices to contact Sakurai. So I am feeling very good about the situation. 75%

Can someone give me the source that says that Capcom has tried to get the ball rolling for Megaman in SSB4?

Ness: 99 % chance of return in SSB4.
Megaman: 70 % Huge history with Nintendo and the most poppular pick for a new 3rd party character.

Nomination:
Veteran:
R.O.B. X 5

Newcommer:
Meowth X 4
F-Type X 1

We must recovuh aww de enuhgy immeedetly, W-Megaman! 75% and a 3 for me.

Ness is obviously 100%. If anyone gets the axe, its Lucas.

5 noms for Geno.

Ness- 100%. Part of the original 12.

Megaman- 80%
FOR
-Most popular third party.
-One of the most requested characters, period.
-If Sonic got into Brawl out of sheer popularity, it's very likely Megaman will be in SSB4.
AGAINST
-One of his main gimmicks (stealing enemy abilities) is shared with Kirby.
-3rd party.

Nominations
Veterans: Lucario x5
Newcomers: Bowser Jr. x5

gotta ask: why is there even voting on the dudes that have bene here for 2 or even all 3 games, arent they like automatic shoe-ins?

Ness

Mother series has become a cult one, and Sakurai seems to like it. Sakurai trolled everyone with his "up until now" that lead a lot of people to think that Ness would get the boot. Well, until that trailer(with the stickers) got leaked.
Cutting one of the originals is bull****, and my wrath will appear if he is not in.
THIS IS A WARNING, SAKURAI.

My vote isn't a 100% because Sakurai is a troll and I can't predict him and Mother series isn't as big as other Nintendo ones.
95%

Megaman

Here he is, the most wanted 3rd party character to appear in SSB4. Capcom sure knows this.
However there are two problems for him to appear:
1-Nintendo has to contact Capcom. It didn't happen in Brawl.
2-Capcom may add OTHER character from their games. Look at Marvel vs Capcom 3, for example: No Megaman, and Tron Bonne is in. There are rumors of a new version of MvC3, but, no Megaman yet.

75% 5-Deserving

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nominate (Veterans):
Lucas (x5)


Nominate (Newcomers):
Phoenix Wright (x2)
Zoroark (x3)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Ray- 49%

@Young Horsetail: Pikachu cannot be nominated, since he's On-Deck

Ganonsburg said:

Can someone give me the source that says that Capcom has tried to get the ball rolling for Megaman in SSB4?

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Here is the source you're looking for.

JOE! said:

gotta ask: why is there even voting on the dudes that have bene here for 2 or even all 3 games, arent they like automatic shoe-ins?

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Even if we think they are shoe-ins, you never really know. For all we know, Mario could be cut (That probably won't happen obviously, but still). There's also the chance that people will assume that a character that everyone else think is likely isn't really that likely at all, so I am prepare to hear a legitimate reason why a character I think is a shoe-in may very well not be at all.

Poll has ended. Will get the next day up around 8:30 PM CST.

Despite being a third-party character, the reception Mega Man received was positive. Most people thought he had a good chance of finally becoming playable in SSB4, scoring a solid 76.63% in likeliness. He was also highly demanded and loved by the crowd, as his deserving score, shot up to 4.7, just shy of that of Ridley and Starfy. Mega Man smiles and laughed as people cheered him in, hoping that they would finally have an opportunity to play as him.

Almost everyone thought Ness had an almost guarantee chance to return and some had no doubt in their mind that he would make it. His score was a remarkable 96.60%. Ironically enough, both were holding hands to each other for unknown reasons. For a few minutes, fans speculated on what they were doing, but as the speculation was heating up, it was immediately cut off by the appearance of Ray and Pikachu, with Pikachu accidentally electrifying Ray.

Lightosia also walked onto stage and was given his prize, he would get five more nominations for newcomers. OmegaXVII followed shortly behind him to collect his prize of five more veteran nominations. They both left the stage and people wondered of the chances Pikachu had of returning and the possibility of Ray being playable in SSB4.

You may now rate Pikachu's and Ray's likelihood and my analysis of these two will come shortly. Considering I have to work late, I will leave this poll open until 8:30 PM CST and Day Nine coming around 9:00 PM CST.

You can also predict the score Geno and Lucario gets on Day Nine.

Pikachu 100%

Ray 40%

Pikachu- 100%. Part of the original 12. Can we quit nominating these guys?

Ray- 30%
FOR
-Custom Robo used to be popular.
-Mildly popular among fanbase.
AGAINST
-Custom Robo died out.
-Competition against other new series reps.
-Similarities to Megaman might not go over well with the less discerning crowd.

Man I missed and forgot yesterday's

Pikachu: 100% (Probable)

First off Pikachu is the second most popular mascot Nintendo has next to Mario, no doubt that this guy will be in.

Verdict: Deserving

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Ray Mk: 74.99% (Probable)

First off, Ray Mk is probably has a considerable chance to appear in
Smash 4, why do I say that? Because Ray has been exposed from Japan ever since he appeared as a Trophy in Melee, at the timee he was known only for Japan games, but later on he got a game released on the U.S. gamecube and Wii and that's what got him popularity, not only that but it's clear that Nintendo hasn't firgotten about him and saw demand for him the he was established in the Western Market, not to mention that in Brawl he got upgraded from being a normal Trophy to an Assist Trophy, it clearly show that Sakurai has shown interest in him, plus isn't a factor he could clearly be scaled up like Olimar was.

The only reason why I rated him the way I did was due to his lack of games recently, with his last game being released prior before Brawl launched.

Overall Ray has alot of potential as a character and is somewhat popular with the Western community, I believe Sakurai clearly sees it has well, which wouldn't surprise me at all if he got upgraded to playable status.

Verdict: Wanted