Rate Their Chances Day Sixty: Ashley Robbins and Ragna the BloodEdge

[Kantrip]

Geez, still playing the "generic", "already in peach's attack", and "moveset would be boring" cards I see.
Peach's attack could easily be changed to Toadsworth, Perry the Parasol, or not changed at all. It really doesn't matter as Toad is both a race and a reoccuring character. Peach could continue to pull out a generic Toad while we get THE Toad as playable.

As far as moveset goes... there is lots of potential including moves from Toad's spinoff game in which he was the protagonist, special abilities from NSMBWii, and other new abilities that aren't yet used. Add to this the fact that Toad could ride a Kart from Mario Kart and utillize his spores and mushrooms, there really is a lot of interesting potential here, and it should not be an argument against him. Oh well, the results were doomed to have HORRID outliers from the start.

 

[Deleted member]

Someone doesn't know Toad well. NSMBWII showed his potential as a playable very good.

You forgot to mention that the Toads' jumps look rather weird. Also, it would sort of clash with the rest of the characters, in my opinion.

 

[Barbasol]

@SSBF

I was referring to this bit;

Rated Candidates:
Day One: Mario and Little Mac (#2 - #41) (Results)
Day Two: Mewtwo and King K. Rool (#41 - #134) (Results)
Day Three: Roy and Toad (#134 - ??) (Current Candidates)
Day Four: Link and Ridley (?? - ??) (Future Candidates)

And all that good stuff. Whats it mean?

 

[Ganonsburg]

@SSBF

I was referring to this bit;

Rated Candidates:
Day One: Mario and Little Mac (#2 - #41) (Results)
Day Two: Mewtwo and King K. Rool (#41 - #134) (Results)
Day Three: Roy and Toad (#134 - ??) (Current Candidates)
Day Four: Link and Ridley (?? - ??) (Future Candidates)

And all that good stuff. Whats it mean?

I'm pretty sure those are post numbers.

 

[Barbasol]

Oooooooh That makes perfect sense now. Good call. Thanks Lol, that was bugging me. I knew they meant SOMETHING XD

 

[Deleted member]

Umm, ten points to Gryffindor?

Sorry about that. What I was trying to say is that you can nominate Geno up to five times since you have five nominations for potential newcomers (One nomination has been used up on Geno, you have four left, which can be used on either him or other candidates).

Oooooooh That makes perfect sense now. Good call. Thanks Lol, that was bugging me. I knew they meant SOMETHING XD

Ganonsburg is right, these are post numbers to see where people stand on these characters.

 

[Zap tackle]

Roy - 15 %

I wouldn't say that Roy's chances are that bad; however, we haven't heard much from Roy since Melee. He still has his chances since he was possibly planned for Brawl; however, there are also more major characters within the franchise that could also be considered for Smash.

Toad - 85%

I personally see Toad as one of the more viable newcomers for the next Smash. He is well known, and popular. Additionally, he has been playable in many games, and has a strong potential for a unique and fun moveset. However, it seems that a lot of poeple put him down due to his less "cool" factor in comparison to Bowser Jr. or Paper Mario. I personally feel that he would truly complete the Mario roster (Jr. too is a good addition; however, I feel that Toad should at least get in before he does). In the original days, we had 5 major recurring, classic Mario characters (not counting minions) and among the four that we already have, Toad has yet to be playable in Smash.

For those who are worried about Peach's B move, there is no need to worry as it can easily be changed to another Toad like Toadsworth (her steward) or even one of her moves from Super Princess Peach (this game came out in the middle of Brawl's development so it was possibly not be considered for Peach at this time). Moves have changed for many characters including Mario (down B).

I also give Toad a 5 as a deserving character.

 

[Deleted member]

Poll has ended for Roy and Toad. Will be updating immediately, it should be done in around forty minutes.

 

[Deleted member]

Tip: I would heavily advise predicting the score the On Deck candidates get (Newcomers can always be predicted, sometimes, vets can to, but not all vets scores can be predicted) so that you can win five more nominations (Or ten if vets score can be predicted).

When the results were in, Roy and Toad step up to see what they got.

To Roy's dismay, it was generally negative. Few people thought he stood much of a chance and his unpopularity doesn't help him either. He left, frustrated and disappointed, worried that he may never get a chance at being playable again. He scored a paltry 25.33% in likeliness and 2.18 in the deserving category.

It was not nearly as clear cut with Toad thought. While some people doubted his inclusion, others were much more positive, really hoping that he would get in. He was also popular, seeing that many people actually wanted him, even thought he was deserving. He had no comment on his 57.27%, which people though on average on his likeliness, but he waved and smiled at his fans when his deserving score was at 3.5.

Some people predicted the score Roy and Toad would get. The one closest to predicting Roy was OmegaXVII, who predicted 25%. Barbasol got lucky with his prediction as well. Although far off, he was closer then any of the guesses for Toad's overall number, in which he guessed 71%. Both received a round of applause and people wondered if they could look at the future.

As they were celebrating, two famous characters came into the room; Link and Ridley. How likely is it that Link will return and how much of a chance does Ridley truly stand in finally being playable? As for those who predicted Ridley's score yesterday, who will walk away with five more nominations for newcomers? Find out today!

OmegaXVII earns five nominations for vets, bringing the amount of vets he can nominate to ten. Barbasol will also be able to nominate ten newcomers.

You may now all predict the overall scores Professor Layton gets on Day Five. You cannot rate his likeliness, but you can predict what he polls.

Ridley and Link's likeliness can now be rated. Poll ends at 7:50 PM CST tomorrow. I will be analyzing both chances soon. So with that said, let the fourth day begin!

 

[Pseudomaniac]

Link- 100%. No explanation required.

Ridley- 70%
FOR
-Primary recurring antagonist of the Metroid series.
-Good moveset potential.
AGAINST
-Sakurai seems to have issues with his size.

Nomintations
Newcomers: Bowser Jr. [x2], Paper Mario [x2], Caeda
Veterans: Lucario [x3], Falco [x2]

Prediction for Layton: 45%

 

[Lightosia]

Here I go.

Link

It's impossible for him to not appear in Smash 4. Period.
100%

Ridley

Oh, one of the most wanted for Brawl, for sure. Many got disappointed when he was announced as a boss in the SSE. While there was a large fanbase for Ridley, there were many complaints about his size. From his immense importance in the Metroid series, he will be always present.

But the main question is: As a boss again?
75%/5(deserving)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nominate (Veterans):
Ness (x3)
Lucas (x2)


Nominate (Newcomers):
Mega Man (x1)
Phoenix Wright (x2)
Zoroark (x2)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Layton- 52%

 

[BKupa666]

Link and Ridley are both 100%.

There is no character left more popular than Ridley other than arguably Megaman. Sakurai won't deny us him playable this time, especially after saying he could work with some effort.

 

[Shorts]

Link gets a 100% and 5 out of 5. Duh.


Ridley I'll give a 70% chance in likelyhood. He is pretty popular, and really the only character that truely should have already been in smash who isn't. He has everything going for him. The only reason for him not to get in is if Sakurai says, "Mmmm, Nah." I'll rate him at a 5 out of 5, just because I'm pretty ignorant on the subject of Metroid.

Vets: Peach x2, Pikachu x3

Newcomers: Jill Valentine(Resident Evil), Cassandra(Soul Caliber), Nightmare(Soul Caliber), Slime(Dragon Quest), Sora (Kingdom Hearts)

I predict Layton gets a solid 50%

 

[OmegaXXII]

Yay! I earned 10 nominatons for vets! =D

Alright then let's get down to business, first off...

Link: (100%) Probable

Link is obviously, the 3rd most prominent character Nintendo has aside from Mario and Pikachu, I have NO doubt that this guy is absolutely guaranteed.

Verdict: Deserving

Ridley (83.99%) Probable

First off, Ridley is without a doubt one off the most Nintendo requested characters to be demanded and has been on Sakurai's poll.

Why are his chances good? Well he is the main protagonist of the Metroid series, has alot of potential to be unique, plus his size can be adjusted to fit in Smash, examples of this can be seen in Melee's intro BGM where Samus was seen fighting Ridley, the other being Olimar resized and adjusted in Brawl

Now, the only thing that's keeping Ridley from absolutly being in SSB4 is the fact that Sakurai included him in Brawl as an SSE boss, even though during Brawl's hype was one of the most demanded characters,but that is not to say that he can't be promoted, look at Charizard for example, he was once considered as part of an item meaning he wasn't playable, but even Sakurai knowing this, he overlooked it and didn't hesitate to include Charizard in Brawl's roster, the same can happen to Ridley

Overall his inclusion for SSB4 is very likely to happen due to massive fan demand for him, not to mention he is one of the most popular villains that Nintendo has, he is considered to be Metroid's Bowser, I have nomdoubts that if demand for him increase to such a point, Sakurai will have no choice but to consider him as a playable character.

Verdict: Wanted

 

[Barbasol]

Aha, I was closest at 71%? Well, 56 was much lower than I obviously though, but hey, that's fantastic. Time to represe-ent.

Ridley- 96%- By far the most desired Nintendo rep to join the chaos, Ridley is truly one of the few remaining gaming all-stars to be neglected from the fray. Sakurai is aware of his fan demand, and was by no means neglected having appeared in the Melee intro and a boss in the Subspace emissary. Ridley is one of the few big name draws any new character could bring forward. 5 Wanted

Link- 100%

Veteran Nominations
Zero-Suit Samus x2
Pikachu x3

Newcomers - SUPER BONUS, 10 NOMINATIONS

Skull Kid x1
Andy x2
Duck Hunt Dog x7

Also throwing in a prediction of 29% for Professor Layton -- EDIT

 

[Deleted member]

Link:

Another one of those guarantee vets. Heck, I would be surprise if he was not revealed in the likely E3 2012 trailer.

100%

Ridley:

Without a doubt the #1 most deserving character. Has large move set potentials and would represent a franchise in dire need of a second slot. He is, with zero doubt in my mind Deserving.

Ridley has pretty much everything going for him, except of course the trolls who try to **** off fans who want him in. Yes I said it, most people who don't want him in are trolls (Exceptions are made, but the trolls I'm referring to are people who use the BS "Too Big" argument while fails miserably). He has massive demands for his inclusion that makes him among the most wanted characters (From what I see, he is in the Top Four spot along with Mega Man, King K. Rool, and Little Mac in terms of character demands) to be in SSB4, he is clearly relevant to the gaming world, Metroid deserves a second slot, and he is very, very important to the Metroid franchise, being the second most important character next to Samus herself. The only thing standing in his way is Sakurai, which if he fails to make Ridley playable, will face hell. So Sakurai has zero excuses NOT to make Ridley playable this time around now that he has been confronted and said that they did not put forth effort towards making him playable.

90%.

Nominations (Newcomers):
- Mega Man (x1)
- Ray (Custom Robo) (x1)
- Victini (x1)
- Starfy (x1)
- Saki Amamiya (x1)

Nominations (Veterans):
- Peach (x5)

I am predicting 28.45% for Professor Layton.

 

[OmegaXXII]

Alright, these are my nominations for newcomers:

Newcomers:

•Ray Mk (2x)
•The Black Knight (2x)
•Caeda(1x)

I have successfully predicted Roy's chances so I have the priveledge of nominating 10 veterans today.

Veterans:

•Pikachu (2x)
•Ike (2x)
•Young Ling(1x)

These are my BONUS nominations:

•Ike (3x)
•Fox (2x)

As for the "on-deck" characters, here's my take on the overall prediction:

Proffesor Layton (29%)

 

[Deleted member]

@OmegaXVII: Ganondorf is on-deck. You can't nominate him.

 

[OmegaXXII]

@OmegaXVII: Ganondorf is on-deck. You can't nominate him.

Alright, I edited and changed my nomination to Young Link.

I had no idea that Ganon was on deck as wellas my votes adding up lol..

 

[GreenMachine]

Link - 100%, 5 out of 5 deserving.
Reasons: Is Link.

Ridley - 80%, 5 out of 5 deserving
Reasons: The more characters that get added the harder it is to ignore Ridley, for reasons that have been repeated a thousand times. The only things really holding back his inclusion are misconceptions that he's merely a mindless recurring boss or some kind of quirks in Sakurai's decision making process.


Nominations:

Newcomers:

Tom Nook (2x)
Ray Mk (2x)
Takamaru (1x)

Veterans:

Diddy Kong (2x)
Wolf (1x)
Luigi (1x)
Bowser (1x)

 

[---]

Link - 100%

Ridley - 50% (deserving, but having been a boss in Brawl TWICE, and his HUGE size also hinders him and size minipulations can only be taken so far)

 

[Berserker.]

Lol size.

101% Link

75% Ridley

 

[Deleted member]

Link is a 100%. Nuff said.

Ridley is more iffy. I'd give him a 50%, mainly because the Metroid series is not as popular in Japan than in the U.S. (I can't speak for PAL regions). In the U.S., though, he's considered the nemesis of gaming's first heroine, so...

 

[Browny]

size minipulations can only be taken so far)

Olimar is 1 inch tall

 

[Hoots]

Link - 100% and 5.
Ridley - 80% and 5.

The thing about Ridley is that although metrois isn't the MOST popular in Japan, Ridley would make an awesome character and deserves to be playable.

Also, 5 nominations for Starfy.

 

[finalark]

Link - 100% (from one of Nintendo's biggest flagship franchises, would be stupid to not include him)

Ridley - 85% (would make a great addition to the roster and a lot of people want him in)

 

[TBone06]

Link - 100% nuff said

Ridley - 85%. I feel he should be 100% based on his popularity and lack of Metroid characters. He's extremely unique and could be a great character. 5 out of 5 on deserving for both

5 vet nominations - Peach (x5)

5 newcomer nominations - Geno, King K. Rool, Krystal, Medusa, Saki

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Link: 100%

Expect it to be Skyward Sword Link.

Ridley: 84%

It's been a time Metroid should've gotten a new rep. Ridley's the most ideal and superior one, as it's the one being the most familiar to Samus, and the usual one to rise again after his defeat, telling he's waiting to strike at the bounty hunter when she least expects it.
He's a perfect example of a powerful, smart and sinister villain. Quite superior to Bowser to and such.

Ridley would be quite unique, even if somewhat between heavy and middle weight. But I think he would be awesome to have in SSB4.

I think I could already imagine him being already codified to next Smash. And no, the boss stuff and him being too big are just stupid excuses.
Olimar, heck even Kirby were incredibly small, yet Sakurai favors them in for his and Miyamoto's sake.
Are they forgetting who was the real Nintendo King and the creator of Metroid-series itself, Gunpei Yokoi?


I say he's Deserving. (5.)


Nominating up:

Newcomers:


x2 Lip

X3 Starfy


Veterans:

5x Mr Game & Watch

 

[Deleted member]

@TBone06: King K. Rool cannot be nominated, he has already gotten polled. Pick another nomination.

 

[Alien Vision]

Link 100% (Obvious)

Ridley 50% (Probable) Just because Ridley was a boss for both games, does not make him any less viable to compete for a spot as a character you can play as. His size, and how there are characters that are alot more logical to be turned into a playable character is what drives him down to 50%.

- Nom's -

Vets: Lucario x5

Newcomers: Dr. Eggman x1 Frogger x1 Rayman x1 Megaman x1 Starfy x1

 

[Deleted member]

Poll closes in ten minutes.

 

[Kantrip]

Link: 99% - Some voted 101% so I'm making sure this stays balanced. No I'm kidding it's 100%. Obviously Deserving.

Ridley: 90% - Sakurai originally said that Ridley was "too big" to be in Brawl. He agreed that Ridley was an important character, however, so he said "HERP DERP RIDLEY'S A BOSS TWICE FANS WILL BE HAPPY". Obviously fans were not pleased with Sakurai's ignorance towards the character. I think he realizes now that it is very possible. There's still that 10% chance he's stubborn and holds his previous opinion. Certainly deserving.

Votes: 5 for Donkey Kong
5 for Dixie Kong

Prediction for Layton - 40%

 

[Deleted member]

And with that, the poll ends for Link and Ridley.

The Fifth Day will be coming soon.

 

[Deleted member]

I am so sorry for the wait. Apparently, my Internet screwed up. I am getting to it now. Again, I apologize for the delay.

 

[Alien Vision]

As dedicated as you are. There is no need to worry about a petty delay. Looking forward to day 5.

 

[Deleted member]

The scores were outstanding. Link for one receive universal appeal with a perfect score. Thinking he was guarantee, Link set out to fight other potential Smash members, hoping to see the likes of Mario.

While not everyone thought he was likely, the general opinion was that Ridley stood a solid chance of getting into SSB4. As such, he had earned himself a 77.29%, which he was jubilant with. He was also incredibly satisfied with the support, having receiving a whopping 4.8 out of 5, people thought he was highly deserving to be in SSB4. With that, Ridley flew out to chase Samus, hoping that if he received approval to be playable in SSB4, he would finally have Samus meet her end.

The departure of the two were unforgettable. Many look at them and hoped that Ridley would finally be playable in SSB4, after being neglected for the past three installment. And of course, after they left, I was bragging about the fact that I was the closest to predicting Ridley's score, so I get five more newcomer nominations, although some people got annoyed at that.

Ganondorf coming up was no surprise, but Professor Layton's appearance was, considering his third-party status. How likely is Ganondorf to return a second time and is it possible for Layton to be playable?

You may all predict the score that Starfy gets on Day Six. You cannot rate his likeliness, but you can predict what he polls.

Ganondorf and Professor Layton's likeliness can now be rated. Poll ends at 7:50 PM CST tomorrow. I will be analyzing both chances soon. As such, the fifth day begins.

 

[OmegaXXII]

Alright guys, today I will be rating the likely hood of both Ganondorf and Professor Layton.

Ganondorf: (94.99%) Probable

Well first off Ganon is undeniably one if the most popular characters that Nintendo has, he plays as the main villain for the Zelda games and has also appeared in both Melee and Brawl.

Why I rated him the way I did was due to Gharaim, who is the main villain of the upcoming Skyward Sword game that might have a very slim chance of replacing Ganondorf's role in the Zelda series, and Sakurai is obviously going to promote the Skyward series in Smash so the possible inclusion might come into play for Ganondorf.

Overall I believe that Ganondorf will ultimetly return, he's already been in both Melle and Brawl plus he is very popular with the fans, I honestly don't see Sakurai replacing him with Gharaim at all, he's considered the Bowser of Zelda, he isn't going anywhere.

Verdict: Deserving

----------------------

Professor Layton (17%) Slim

Alright, first off I don't know much about Professor Layton, but I do know how others fair against him, seeing that he's a 3rd party character that Nintendo has worked with he has a slim shot at the roster.

Why did I say that? Simple because there are other 3rd party characters that are well more deserving, not to mention more popular than him, Layton isn't known by many, I believe Sakurai may want to represent 3rd part characters that are recognizable and iconic such as Megaman, not only is he more popular but is definetly been heavily requested since Brawl's development and if Sakurai decides to include three 3rd part characters it most likely to be someone whose been heavily demanded like Megaman, even Ryu is more likely due to Capcom's and Sakurai's communication.

Overall I believe there are WAY more deserving 3rd party characters to be put up for consideration, even if Layton does appear and have some history with Nintendo I still can't see myself seeing him over Megeman, he has too much competition to deal with.

Verdict: Against

 

[Deleted member]

Ganondorf has at least an 85% chance of returning. I mean, you would keep one of the most iconic villains in gaming in your Smash Bros. roster, wouldn't you?

Professor Layton is not as likely, maybe a 20% chance at best. He hardly constitutes as a fighter, and he's not owned by Nintendo (For the record, the series is published by Level 5 in Japan). He has become a prominent video game figure, though.

 

[Deleted member]

Ganondorf

Ganondorf is near guarantee to make a return as a playable character in SSB4, it just makes too much sense not to drop him. The only threat to his return is if he appears in The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Swords or not and how much of a role Ghirahim plays in that game. Even if Ganondorf never makes an appearance in that game and Ghirahim ends up being the main threat Link has to face in that game, I heavily doubt Ganondorf will be replaced at all.

95%

Professor Layton

While I don't think we need him, I will admit, he would be a very creative and unique player to have. He has move set potentials and if playable, I really would be interested to see how he plays. I vote Wanted.

But in likeliness, I cannot say with confidence that he'll be playable, although he isn't necessarily impossible. He has some things going for him, like being the best selling new third-party franchise for the DS that his in less then half a decade, sold over ten million copies, appearing exclusively on Nintendo franchises, having all of his games that makes it oversea published by Nintendo, not to mention Level-5 and Nintendo have a good relationship. As such, he has the potential to gain massive support for inclusion, even if it's not as much as Mega Man.

What keeps him from being a likely candidate are three things. One is that he's third-party and we all know that there will be very few third-party characters playable in this game. If only three slots are available, with the existence of Mega Man, he has next to no chance. Even if we do get a fourth slot, he has a lot of competition to worry about, such as Slime, Ryu Haybausa, Travis Touchdown, etc. Two is that he is not nearly as popular as Metal Gear Solid, Sonic the Hedgehog, or Mega Man, all of which are likely to have rep in SSB4. Third, right now, he has very little demand. Popularity might not be that important with Nintendo characters, but it becomes a lot more important when selecting third-party characters (If we get one). As such, I have my doubts about any third-party characters, Layton included, gaining enough support to guarantee a fourth slot. He is certainly possible, but if we get third-party characters, I really wouldn't expect him to make the cut. However, if he remains as relevant if not more so after SSB4, he'll have a much better shot in SSB5. But for now...

30%

Nominations (Veterans):
Pikachu (x5)

Nominations (Newcomers):
Mega Man (x1)
Ray (Custom Robo) (x1)
Victini (x1)
Saki Amamiya (x1)
Medusa (x1)
Takamaru (x1)
Paper Mario (x1)
Isaac (x1)
Krystal (x1)
Ryu Hayabusa (x1)

Prediction for Starfy: 57.27%

 

[Shorts]

Ganondorf gets a 95% The only reason he would leave in my opinion would be if they decided to revamp and heavily butchered the roster. Again, this is NOT NOT NOT likely, but I err on the side of caution when it comes to prediction. He gets a five out of five in deserving. I think he Nintendo's second biggest villain, and he deserves the respect a title like that brings.

Professor Layton gets a 40% in likelyness. My optimism gets the best of me for this one. As far as I know, Layton is a popular character, with a popular franchise, but he has to duke it out with the oh so overrated Megs. No one can win that battle, IMO. It's a sad truth. He is a very cool character though, I really enjoy him. He gets a three out of five in deserving, just because he isn't a first party character, and guests aren't really that important. I want to give him a four, but He just isn't on Par with King K Rool, and the rest of the hopefuls we all expect this time around.

For veterens, I will go ahead and throw out Ice Climbers x 2 Pokemon Trainer x2 and Zelda.

I'm going to continue throwing as many characters I can into the newcomer voting pool, so here we go: Stanley the Bugman, Shulk(Xenoblade), Kanan(The Last Stroy), and Jill Valentine x 2

I hope everyone is looking at the candidates so they can get a feel for all these other options.

I predict Starfy will come in at 60%.