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Official Metaknight Discussion

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Eddie G

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Ice climbers
Getting rid of mk won't have anything to do with Lucas. The MU is 60-40 and even without mk Lucas still gets ***** by snake.
Simplified for you.

I'm well aware of Lucas' tough matchups, but I only addressed the Lucas/ICs matchup as pertains to what ADHD said and how it would be affected by the switch of MK players to ICs players. A silly thing to address, I know, but I clarified it for you nonetheless.
 

Crow!

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Also, that chart is not the information I was attempting to deliver, Crow.

The most important information were the average character ranking points. We can simply look at the Character Rankings list and count that information without needing a pie chart or graph.
The point is that the "average ranking points" is not useful information on its own, because it is entirely dependent on the cutoff - but I feel like you're not understanding why I'm complaining about that, so let me demonstrate with examples.

Suppose that you, as you seem to think I wanted you to do, set the cutoff at right next to zero. Suddenly, if your character has a bunch of players who got one top8 each, the character's average plummets! Why on earth should any measure pertaining to a character care how many players there are at the lowest level?

Suppose you put the cutoff so high only one player of each main shown made it in. Now there IS no average to speak of; you're asking "how many points do each of the (Frankly, with only two of each main, as you are using there sill is no statistically significant average to speak of. N=2 is fail on that regard.)

No matter what cutoff you choose, you can't avoid both these problems, because the very averaging you're trying to do is the fundamental cause for the data to be lost. Were the players' scores symmetrically distributed about some mean ranking within each character this would be fine, but the nature of "how good each player is when ranked within each main" necessarily has its mode as far away from the mean as possible; in other words, the data is very skewed. This is the worst case scenario for applying averages.

Right skewed data necessarily has a mean (average) which is very much too far to the left. Worse, the mean tells you nothing about HOW skewed the data is, and the degree of skewness is what you'd want to look at if you're trying to make any conclusion about the popularity of a character at the highest skill levels.

You're losing information that you otherwise would have because of the averaging. The chart of unaltered data would actually be useful, plus if the data itself is just shown it's not necessary to talk about things like means and skewness to describe it; people can just look at it and they instantly know as everything there is to tell even if they don't understand statistics.


If you are too scared (or lazy or whatever adjective you'd prefer to use) to put together and show the original data, let me do it.


Also, no, I have not yet seen a player-centric list from Ankoku yet. I found your post because I was expecting it from what I saw earilier in the day.. so far I've not read up on the entireity of the firestorm that is this thread. I'll keep looking for it though.



Oh, and while reviewing recent posts before finalizing, this struck me as funny given what I'm posting:
Master Raven said:
lol what is this math class?
When there's people around who don't get math, and math provides answers relevant to what those people are talking about, yes, it is always math class.
 

iRJi

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It's still a bothersome matchup for the ICs nonetheless, as is Peach because of their sheer ability to constantly separate the climbers and avoid grabs. Don't let matchup ratios fool you.
Agreed.

Anyway, To be honest, ask yourselves this first:

What do you think this game is based off of? (interms of Counter picking or not, etc, etc)

If we all can come to a logical agreement of what the game surrounds, then you can fit the criteria if MK fits in it or not.

From what I see it as, this game is all about Cping others in terms of character, and stages. That is all the game is. However, if this is what the game is, Metaknight should be banned from it, since overall it is impossible to CP this character.
 

Chuee

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The main thing Lucas has to separate them, Nair, can be pivotgrabbed.
It's not really a hard MU for IC once they learn it.
 

Melomaniacal

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Agreed.

Anyway, To be honest, ask yourselves this first:

What do you think this game is based off of? (interms of Counter picking or not, etc, etc)

If we all can come to a logical agreement of what the game surrounds, then you can fit the criteria if MK fits in it or not.

From what I see it as, this game is all about Cping others in terms of character, and stages. That is all the game is. However, if this is what the game is, Metaknight should be banned from it, since overall it is impossible to CP this character.
I'm just going to hop in and say that I disagree with this.

You shouldn't need an advantageous match up to win. Ideally, everything would be an even match up. More even match ups = more clear winner = more competitive. MK has close-to-even match ups. If you lose those, it's your fault. Not your characters fault, and not MKs fault. Your fault.

Learn the match up with Snake/Diddy/ICs/whoever else has a good-enough match up. After that it's only up to you to win.
 

HeroMystic

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@Adumbrodeus: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=9477258&postcount=2174

@iRJi: If there was a character that had nothing but even matches, that'd be breaking the CP system too. Should we ban that too? Metaknight is imbalanced but the CP system has minimal involvement to that.

To the topic at hand: I believe the flaw of the calculation has been stated. How exactly is it fixed?
 

Eddie G

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The main thing Lucas has to separate them, Nair, can be pivotgrabbed.
It's not really a hard MU for IC once they learn it.
Perhaps, but what I said still applies. You're also ignoring stage influence on the matchup.

Can't just focus on presumptions, now. *wags finger*
 

RDK

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The point is that the "average ranking points" is not useful information on its own, because it is entirely dependent on the cutoff - but I feel like you're not understanding why I'm complaining about that, so let me demonstrate with examples.

Suppose that you, as you seem to think I wanted you to do, set the cutoff at right next to zero. Suddenly, if your character has a bunch of players who got one top8 each, the character's average plummets! Why on earth should any measure pertaining to a character care how many players there are at the lowest level?

Suppose you put the cutoff so high only one player of each main shown made it in. Now there IS no average to speak of; you're asking "how many points do each of the (Frankly, with only two of each main, as you are using there sill is no statistically significant average to speak of. N=2 is fail on that regard.)

No matter what cutoff you choose, you can't avoid both these problems, because the very averaging you're trying to do is the fundamental cause for the data to be lost. Were the players' scores symmetrically distributed about some mean ranking within each character this would be fine, but the nature of "how good each player is when ranked within each main" necessarily has its mode as far away from the mean as possible; in other words, the data is very skewed. This is the worst case scenario for applying averages.

Right skewed data necessarily has a mean (average) which is very much too far to the left. Worse, the mean tells you nothing about HOW skewed the data is, and the degree of skewness is what you'd want to look at if you're trying to make any conclusion about the popularity of a character at the highest skill levels.

You're losing information that you otherwise would have because of the averaging. The chart of unaltered data would actually be useful, plus if the data itself is just shown it's not necessary to talk about things like means and skewness to describe it; people can just look at it and they instantly know as everything there is to tell even if they don't understand statistics.


If you are too scared (or lazy or whatever adjective you'd prefer to use) to put together and show the original data, let me do it.


Also, no, I have not yet seen a player-centric list from Ankoku yet. I found your post because I was expecting it from what I saw earilier in the day.. so far I've not read up on the entireity of the firestorm that is this thread. I'll keep looking for it though.



Oh, and while reviewing recent posts before finalizing, this struck me as funny given what I'm posting:

When there's people around who don't get math, and math provides answers relevant to what those people are talking about, yes, it is always math class.
You're missing the point.

The argument was that Metaknight the character has such a huge representation compared to all of the other characters on the cast, that sheer numbers alone guarantee him to be placing higher than he normally would if he had bad or even average reputation - regardless of how good he is.

This is why tournament rankings and such are of little to no use when determining the actual tier spot of the character. There are way too many variables involved in tournaments to reliably report the usefulness of all of the characters.

Yes, the data is skewed because you have on one end players that do very very well with MK, and on the other end players who literally bring down MK's tournament average. The two extremes are too far apart to allow the average as a whole to be reliable.

A good example is this. Take the income per family graph I made below. Note how just a few high incomes make the mean - the fulcrum point that balances the incomes above and below - deceptively high. Why is this?

Because of one person essentially ****ing up the entire mean average. The dude at the end (let's call him Bill Gates) makes the graph deceiving and basically inaccurate for real world applications.




I wonder who we know that's like that in the Smash community? Replace income in the graph with top spots occupied by MK mains.
 

RDK

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@Adumbrodeus: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=9477258&postcount=2174

@iRJi: If there was a character that had nothing but even matches, that'd be breaking the CP system too. Should we ban that too? Metaknight is imbalanced but the CP system has minimal involvement to that.

To the topic at hand: I believe the flaw of the calculation has been stated. How exactly is it fixed?
A completely balanced game breaks the CP system too.

What's your point?

Does MK hard-counter 2/3rds of the cast into oblivion?

MK and Diddy are even matchups for him. Although again, the current MU's seem to be more opinion than fact.
 

Adapt

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Please listen to Crow! guys. He's got a very good point. Arbitrary cutoffs are bad. What we really need, is a plot of the score (per player) distribution, like a histogram or box plot, for the top x characters. (maybe 5 or so)

Looking at the distribution of these characters should indicate how far ahead the average MK user is from the average Snake/Diddy etc user.

Clearly this will be a lot of work, but there are too many bad statistics floating around to really glean a useful conclusion.
 

HeroMystic

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A completely balanced game breaks the CP system too.

What's your point?

Does MK hard-counter 2/3rds of the cast into oblivion?

MK and Diddy are even matchups for him. Although again, the current MU's seem to be more opinion than fact.
Why the **** are you arguing with me? Your point is actually my point.

Edit: Misquote noted.
 

Jem.

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I'm not part of the SBR, anyone mind enlightening me whats going on with the MK ban situation? No one is forced to use the SBR rules.. Just make sure the host of your big tournament isn't a d-bag ;)

That will be a shame though if the community feels he needs to be banned, considering the rise of ADHD and DEHF vs top MK's, heck even X the sonic from Utah has been beating really good metaknights (and he nearly took a game off tyrant last weekend)

I will lost a lot of respect if this ban goes through.. The results since Genesis aren't even better..
 

RDK

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Why the **** are you arguing with me? Your point is actually my point.
That's my bad, I read the post that you had quoted in your post and accidentally hit the reply button to yours.

That wasn't directed at you.
 

Crow!

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Oh, just saw some people are bringing out a bell curve. I like drawing curves. Doing that can explain why this skewness thing is a problem.

Here's what people are used to thinking about:


Nice and symmetric; taking averages and stuff works nicely. But that's not what happens when you pick the N best players of each character and plot their scores. It looks something more like this:


Again, I'm eager to get the real data, but this is as CLEAN and NORMAL as the data could possibly be (i.e. best case scenario for Omni's types of methods). (It's literally just half of the bell curve shown above.)

Anyway notice the horizontal lines I drew. Depending on the number of players you choose to average the scores over, you get very different averages FOR EXACTLY THE SAME SHAPE, i.e. exactly the same level of "popularity" which is what Omni claims he's removing from the data.

The smallest N I drew was N=2; that's how many Omni gave Snake. Notice how high the "average score" winds up being in this case.

The highest N I drew was N=10. Omni gave Meta Knight N=13.


Edit: Oh, and to be clear, I made these plots with Mathematica 7.0; the horizontal lines I draw aren't just representative, they're exactly accurate given the graph shown.
 

adumbrodeus

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That's very similar to what I was saying, though it's more degree and number.

Of course, not objective mistakes, but mistakes relative to the opponent's playstyle, with the converse being successful reads on the opponent's end.

To the topic at hand: I believe the flaw of the calculation has been stated. How exactly is it fixed?
With GREAT difficulty, at some point I hope to kick off a project to reduce it to pure math using character attributes, but there really is no short answer.


Oh, just saw some people are bringing out a bell curve. I like drawing curves. Doing that can explain why this skewness thing is a problem.

Here's what people are used to thinking about:


Nice and symmetric; taking averages and stuff works nicely. But that's not what happens when you pick the N best players of each character and plot their scores. It looks something more like this:


Again, I'm eager to get the real data, but this is as CLEAN as the data could possibly be (i.e. best case scenario for Omni's types of methods).

Anyway notice the horizontal lines I drew. Depending on the number of players you choose to average the scores over, you get very different averages FOR EXACTLY THE SAME SHAPE, i.e. exactly the same level of "popularity" which is what Omni claims he's removing from the data.

The smallest N I drew was N=2; that's how many Omni gave Snake. Notice how high the "average score" winds up being in this case.

The highest N I drew was N=10. Omni gave Meta Knight N=13.
Then the problem becomes "what players do we understand as reflecting the MU at a relevant level of play".


Differences in population, while it would be helpful to know, turns out to be misleading because of two reasons. One is the fact that the subset of players that choose to play metaknight is difficult to measure. How many are there? Is the average MK player an accurate sample of the SSBB community at large? I do not think that it is. There is an unknown variable that determines whether a player switches to MK or not and we currently have no clue and no way to measure whether or not this variable has an affect on player skill.

Second, and more importantly, is that OS uses data where all but the top 8 placings in 100+ tournaments are thrown out. At this point, differences in popularity become less important. Let's say you add 20 (skilled) Link mains and 20 (skilled) mario mains to the Pound 4 tournament. Would the top 8 results have changed at all? I very much doubt it.
Add 20 Pit mains? It may change the results very slightly. Perhaps a highly lucky! (and highly skilled, of course, but skill is a variable which should be held constant for these arguments) player breaks top 8.
Add 20 MK mains? This one should be obvious (taking skill out of the equation)

The result is that while popularity DOES have an influence upon character placements, the importance is dampened by the fact that the character is better, plain and simple, and that only a constant sampling from each tournament (8) is drawn from these large samples with varying popularity for each character.
That is false, throw in 20 skilled link mains and the data will be skewed unless the data is averaged period. Of course how large of a skew depends on how inherently good the character is, but the only perfect way to judge is equal skill.


So, Links will make a minimal difference (though the average placement for link will jump DRASTICALLY), but for a high tier character? Especially the best character in the game? There should be a massive jump statistically speaking.


Let me put it this way, with all else being equal, and you have 20 mks, 20 diddies, and 20 snakes. Now assume that they have even MUs against each other for the sake of argument and no other characters played. In our example tournament tournament, assuming roughly even skill, all players will distribute evenly on the top spots.


Now toss in 20 more MKs of the same level, now suddenly on average MKs will have double the placings. Is it fair to say that there are double or more top level MKs then diddies or snakes? Then statistically speaking he should have double their placings even if they were just as good.
 

iRJi

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I'm just going to hop in and say that I disagree with this.

You shouldn't need an advantageous match up to win. Ideally, everything would be an even match up. More even match ups = more clear winner = more competitive. MK has close-to-even match ups. If you lose those, it's your fault. Not your characters fault, and not MKs fault. Your fault.

Learn the match up with Snake/Diddy/ICs/whoever else has a good-enough match up. After that it's only up to you to win.


Advantageous or not, that is not what I am getting at on the most part. I am sharing that when it comes down to it, the option is there. I am not just talking about character matchups either, I am also taking into account stage selection.

Your right, you don't need an advantage over MK to beat him. The game is all about outplaying your opponent. If that was so, we wouldn't be having this discussion about MK at all. We are here to determine what sets MK off from the rest of the cast, and to give him a classification of "broken". What I am saying is MK's ability to not be counter picked properly is one of the major reasons why he is set off from the rest of the cast. It is all nice and easy to say that if you can go even, it can be done. What I am saying is it's never even.
This isn't a traditional fighting game where the stage selection is just for the looks and kicks of it. Stages play a big part in this game. It can be said that Metaknight can be counter picked to a single stage according the character matchup, but all of that is nulled when the staged is banned/striked. It worsens when the area of play has 2 bans. In all honesty nothing even gets close enough to stop MK properly to say that he is "not ban-able"
 

Delvro

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You're missing the point.

The argument was that Metaknight the character has such a huge representation compared to all of the other characters on the cast, that sheer numbers alone guarantee him to be placing higher than he normally would if he had bad or even average reputation - regardless of how good he is.

This is why tournament rankings and such are of little to no use when determining the actual tier spot of the character. There are way too many variables involved in tournaments to reliably report the usefulness of all of the characters.

Yes, the data is skewed because you have on one end players that do very very well with MK, and on the other end players who literally bring down MK's tournament average. The two extremes are too far apart to allow the average as a whole to be reliable.

A good example is this. Take the income per family graph I made below. Note how just a few high incomes make the mean - the fulcrum point that balances the incomes above and below - deceptively high. Why is this?

Because of one person essentially ****ing up the entire mean average. The dude at the end (let's call him Bill Gates) makes the graph deceiving and basically inaccurate for real world applications.




I wonder who we know that's like that in the Smash community? Replace income in the graph with top spots occupied by MK mains.
So what you are trying to say is that we should take the average performance of all MK mains and compare them to the average score of every other character's mains?

While that is an interesting idea on the theoretical level, we cannot do that because, well, we can't measure the average performance of everybody in the nation (under the assumption that anybody, scrubby or not, can main MK and do better than he normally would). Ankoku's data only shows top 8 placements. We have absolutely no clue about anyone who didn't make this threshold.

So you're sampling data that is not a random sample of the smash bros. population.

Thus, when you take the average sample from the skewed data (only top 8 placements), you guessed it, your average will be skewed.

Therefore it is not reliable and cannot be used as evidence.
 

Overswarm

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You're missing the point.

The argument was that Metaknight the character has such a huge representation compared to all of the other characters on the cast, that sheer numbers alone guarantee him to be placing higher than he normally would if he had bad or even average reputation - regardless of how good he is.

This is why tournament rankings and such are of little to no use when determining the actual tier spot of the character. There are way too many variables involved in tournaments to reliably report the usefulness of all of the characters.

Yes, the data is skewed because you have on one end players that do very very well with MK, and on the other end players who literally bring down MK's tournament average. The two extremes are too far apart to allow the average as a whole to be reliable.

A good example is this. Take the income per family graph I made below. Note how just a few high incomes make the mean - the fulcrum point that balances the incomes above and below - deceptively high. Why is this?

Because of one person essentially ****ing up the entire mean average. The dude at the end (let's call him Bill Gates) makes the graph deceiving and basically inaccurate for real world applications.




I wonder who we know that's like that in the Smash community? Replace income in the graph with top spots occupied by MK mains.
I already accounted for outliers; I used the top 3 scoring for MK, Diddy, and Snake from Ankoku's list then I did it again but took out M2K, Ally, and ADHD (Metaknight lost the most points from this). MK still loses.



Also, you're assuming that the amount of a certain character is random when it isn't. If we were playing random brawl you could make an argument in this fashion, but we aren't.
 

Omni

You can't break those cuffs.
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Crow, feel free to ask Ankoku for the chart.

All 300+ entrants and characters with points are waiting to be categorized by you.

MK isn't going anywhere @ ...Bidy...Daddy...
 

Zankoku

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Master list.
http://theviashino.com/ssbb/superlist.xls

Improper formatting (name has top 8 value, and the rest of them are aligned one to the left as a result) and no correction for same-person different-name (M2K/Mew2King, Ultimate Razer/UltimateRazer, iStudying/Istudying/istudying), authorized personnel only.
 

RDK

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I already accounted for outliers; I used the top 3 scoring for MK, Diddy, and Snake from Ankoku's list then I did it again but took out M2K, Ally, and ADHD (Metaknight lost the most points from this). MK still loses.



Also, you're assuming that the amount of a certain character is random when it isn't. If we were playing random brawl you could make an argument in this fashion, but we aren't.
Hey you! Get on skype; it's podcast time! Lol.
 

Jem.

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I just wish more people had the mindset of DEHF/ADHD/X. X, using the character considered to be one of the worst 3 in the game, has already beaten MK's such as Sean and Zex, and nearly took a game off Tyrant last weekend. Larry doesn't even whine about the Pikachu and Ice Climbers matchup for Falco, because he knows he can win. Lets face it, even if MK gets banned, most of you whining about MK still won't be making money at a tournament. The way life goes is that if MK were to get banned, everyone will find the next big thing to whine about. Maybe its IC perfecting the infinites on the whole cast. Maybe a new character proves he can consistently win. Then what? THEN will you start to say its okay guys, we can step our game up? It isn't fair to the players all around the world like Tyrant/Havok/DSF/Mew2King/Dojo/Myself/many many others who have spent a lot of time with MK trying to learn the ins and outs about him. And if you say MK doesn't take a lot to win, I'd like to see you beat any of those players in the ditto, or even win a tournament at that with Metaknight.

It's just a shame, if the community spent less time whining, and more time playing, they could probably be beating top MK's. It's not strange that the players not whining are the ones who are able to beat MK.
 

GameClucks

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Why am I not in the SBR??

I am frigging GC GUY!!

No matter what the vote is (if there even is another one, which shouldnt be, since MKs win %age has gone DOWN since last vote to not ban) TP4 will have MK legal.
 

Ganonsburg

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Maybe instead of arguing with hypothetical data, data without controls, and just generally biased data, maybe we could devise a plan to gather data with controls to rule out variables such as popularity, and do it together as a whole community rather than biased fractions. Decide on what we'll test (MK's brokeness, overcentralization, his true match-up ratios based on how much they actually win vs characters, etc) and then decide on limits that would be translated into a "Yes, he's broken" or "No, he's not" or whatever.

It would obviously be complicated, but at least we wouldn't continue volleying the same arguments back and forth...

:034:
 

Rockan

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i hope mks not ban i play toon link vs him...... like i would rather play a mk than a snake snake is able to kill at like 110% with his broken *** up tilt and he lives till like 150%
 

Tien2500

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Apparently ADHD, DEHF, and Ally are the only people in all of Brawl who are actually trying.
 

HeroMystic

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Advantageous or not, that is not what I am getting at on the most part. I am sharing that when it comes down to it, the option is there. I am not just talking about character matchups either, I am also taking into account stage selection.

Your right, you don't need an advantage over MK to beat him. The game is all about outplaying your opponent. If that was so, we wouldn't be having this discussion about MK at all. We are here to determine what sets MK off from the rest of the cast, and to give him a classification of "broken". What I am saying is MK's ability to not be counter picked properly is one of the major reasons why he is set off from the rest of the cast. It is all nice and easy to say that if you can go even, it can be done. What I am saying is it's never even.
This isn't a traditional fighting game where the stage selection is just for the looks and kicks of it. Stages play a big part in this game. It can be said that Metaknight can be counter picked to a single stage according the character matchup, but all of that is nulled when the staged is banned/striked. It worsens when the area of play has 2 bans. In all honesty nothing even gets close enough to stop MK properly to say that he is "not ban-able"
Now that you clarified your position I actually agree with this, but this is only a factor, not a cutthroat reason.
 

Espy Rose

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I just wish more people had the mindset of DEHF/ADHD/X. X, using the character considered to be one of the worst 3 in the game
Third worst in the game?
Excuse me while I go laugh my *** off.
 

Espy Rose

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X uses Sonic.
Sonic sucks, but he's by no means on the same level as GANONDORF.
 

Crow!

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Before I start:

Thanks Ankoku! :)


... you know what, I was going to get all passive-aggressive-sarcastic on RDK, but this puts me in a good mood so I'm going to tone it down from what it was.


You're missing the point.

The argument was that Metaknight the character has such a huge representation compared to all of the other characters on the cast, that sheer numbers alone guarantee him to be placing higher than he normally would if he had bad or even average reputation - regardless of how good he is.

This is why tournament rankings and such are of little to no use when determining the actual tier spot of the character. There are way too many variables involved in tournaments to reliably report the usefulness of all of the characters.

Yes, the data is skewed because you have on one end players that do very very well with MK, and on the other end players who literally bring down MK's tournament average. The two extremes are too far apart to allow the average as a whole to be reliable.

A good example is this. Take the income per family graph I made below. Note how just a few high incomes make the mean - the fulcrum point that balances the incomes above and below - deceptively high. Why is this?

Because of one person essentially ****ing up the entire mean average. The dude at the end (let's call him Bill Gates) makes the graph deceiving and basically inaccurate for real world applications.




I wonder who we know that's like that in the Smash community? Replace income in the graph with top spots occupied by MK mains.
Whoa, this is neat. While I was making my other post you also made a version of it.

Only problem is, Anti-ban's been trying to argue that the reason MK appears so dominant is because there's so many of them.


Clear your mind for a bit and look at that chart you made demonstrating skewness.

If they truly exist as a large mass of not that great players, where's the bajillion Meta Knights the defense depends on?
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Legitimate best characters in other games have even matchups.

I guess my point really is MK doesn't have even matchups.

And in fact the whole of Smashboards is guilty of down-playing ratios. (55:45 should become either 50:50 or 60:40, 60:40 should become 70:30 and 70:30 should become 80:20).

If Falco, Diddy, Snake and IC's were only at a 45:55 disadvantage, wouldn't we see a lot more of them beating the top MK's?
People say this all of the time but lack legitimate proof that people are horribly downplaying MU's. People say this game has MU's much worse than people say yet no one explains why they are even as bad as people say.

And I guarantee if people are told to redo MU's at this point there is going to be huge amounts of bias towards MK.
 
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