Conviction
Human Nature
Match-Up Export
Fox vs. Meta Knight
Fox vs. Meta Knight
________________________________
Things to keep in mind while discussing!
Code:
* Keep a proper wording,
don't insult or yell at the other people discussing inside of this thread.
Although that shouldn't even be mentioned, I've seen it happen.
* Match-Up ratios are fairly subjective.
However, please don't overrate or underestimate a character.
Stuff like "lol, X can't do anything, RAEP!" is not going to aid us in our discussion.
* Don't theorycraft too much.
Keep in mind that while Fox or the character we're discussing in this thread
are able to do a certain move at a certain time, don't just throw this out,
but rather think if this is actually practical and used by good players of these characters.
* If you are new to the discussion, please don't state trivial things.
Best would be to read the discussion properly,
or at least the first and last few pages should the thread go on for a while already.
Saying "Fox can reflect all of X's projectiles." might be true,
but probably has already been mentioned.
* Discussions will be held for about 2 weeks - unless the need of expanding is felt.
The first week will bring a temporary ratio that then will corrected during the second.________________________________
META KNIGHT 
KEY POINTS
Advantages
Dealing with Tornado
MK is known to wreck quite a few characters simply by spamming tornado... and, while avoidable, generally, MK's that do spam tornado tend to still do pretty well in a tournament scene. Fox does not succumb to this at all, however. Fox has several options against the tornado:
Dair the center of the attack from the top, leading to every dair followup.
Nair the center of the attack from the top, offering a more lenient hitbox than Dair, allowing for better accuracy, while losing some followups
Shield the 'nado, then Usmash punish the ending lag - Very useful due to Fox's speed, and his fairly strong shield.
Shield-grab the 'nado
Other situational attacks, such as Fsmash, apparently.
While many characters have similar ways of punishing the tornado, not much characters rivals Fox in this way. Fox's SDI alows him to "pop" out of the tornado (much more easily than most of the cast, likely due to his light weight), directly above the center, and dair downward. This only depends on the timing of the SDI, and not on the spacing of the tornado... It varies on how high Fox will actually pop out.. there have been times that I will just seemingly dair right in the middle of the tornado, without seeming to pop out all that much at all... But again, this gives you a spacing directly above the center of the tornado, and only gets you about 2%. Video evidence of this (just in some really old matches of mine) is shown below.
The typed the relative time that escaping of tornado occurs... The first three are teams matches (first two, MK player is Rx-; 3rd, it is Danny...mislabeled video), and the next two are singles matches against Bonesaw..
Watch me at 3:07 and 4:40, and Olimar at 4:05 and 4:31
Watch me at 1:39, 1:52, 2:54, 3:48, 4:01, 4:25 (actually get out twice here...), and 5:20 ; Olimar at 2:45, 3:07, and 5:28
Olimar at 1:25
3:21 and 4:12!!!
2:08!!!, 2:32, 4:21, and 4:41
Keep in mind this is just showing the escaping of tornado on a pretty regular basis. It is possible to escape 100% of the time.
The Dair followup at the end does not always work WHEN THE MK HAS ESTABLISHED SIDEWAYS MOMENTUM. That is, he starts it far to your left, and continues through you until the right. If he tries to zone you, and turnaround (Starts from the left, goes to your shield, then tries to drift back left) the dair is nearly guaranteed UPON HIT by the tornado, since it puts you above the center before the MK has a chance to get away.
Therefore, upone hit by tornado, no Fox should take (most of the time) more than 5%, and should almost always have a good chance to punish it with a dair > whatever....possibly killing the MK.
This makes this move a very risky choice for MK, and one of his worst options in the match.
Shuttle Loop / Glide attack
Similar to tornado, this is a very spammable move that makes the matchup ridiculous for many characters. It's use is not as limited as tornado, but again, Fox makes it riskier than most characters can.
With Fox on the ground, against a whiffed / shielded Shuttle Loop, Fox can drop shield, and SH Dair the end of shuttle loop, guaranteeing a hit. SH Dair clanks with the glide attack, and continues hitting, overriding that, and if the MK cancels the glide, rather than attack, he is still in position to be Daired...
In the air, it really depends on both characters' spacing and timing. Shuttle loop can beat or trade with Dair (Nair is a better option here, usually), but has to be well-spaced.
Fox should not be in danger of the semi-spike at the top of shuttle loop, because it can actually be reaction-shined ( I realize this sounds ridiculous, but I can land it fairly well, where the shine either stalls me just above the loop, giving a free dair, or the shine hits the MK due to its invincibility frames).
It can also be air dodged on reaction, so it's use is limited.
Shuttle loop's main use (imo) is out of shield, but I do not believe that this should be a huge problem for Fox, I will outline more on this later in this post.
Again, while shuttle loop still has good uses, it is a bit more limited than normal against Fox, because he is able to punish it...hard.
Fox's shield pressure game
This is a VERY important part of this matchup, and is neglected in discussion, most of the time.
My argument here is that MK's shield is not incredible, and Fox has good shield pokes. I outlined above a couple ways to land mostly free bairs on shield, and there are other ways to safely attack shield, as well.
After one or two bairs, MK's shield relaxes quite a bit, and uncovers his head. This allows Dair to poke the shield, and lead to every followup after a Dair. This instantly reverts Fox back to early days of Brawl, when SH Dair was a valid approach. SH Dair also approaches MK at his pseudo-weak spot from 45 degrees... above dsmash even. And once dair starts poking, Fox really can do much of what he wants, because MK's OoS game is gone.
Fox does this to several other characters, the most notable of which is Snake, who he can Fair poke.
Disadvantages
Zoning
Here is where most MK mains make their point in the matchup... and it is well founded, MK has zoning tools out the wazoo, but I do not feel that this can be described as "lol zone, u die"
The fact is that Fox gets out-zoned by many of the characters in the game, but still wins matchups against quite a few of them. I mean, in reality, Fox gets outzoned by characters like Ike, Zelda, DDD, Link, Lucario, Mario, Olimar, Peach, DK, etc etc etc... but has mostly even or advantage matches against all of them. Therefore, this cannot be considered an instant-win scenario... it does not lead to that. I agree that MK has very good zoning tools here, and they affect the matchup for him, but they do not instantly mean that he wins 7-3 or something.
Fox has several tools to get around MK's zoning in the matchup. While none of them is a cure-all to zoning (otherwise he wouldn't get out-zoned...would he?) they do come together to form a risk factor for MK that doesn't exist against some other characters.
Dash shield is an oft-overlooked tool for Fox, but is one of his safest and best options. Fox's dash speed, and lowish traction allows for a very quick slide at the end of the shield. This is a greater slide than most characters' dash shield, so it's hard to visualize if you do not know the move.
This allows him to push slightly inside tactics like dtilt, ftilt, and fair zoning, with the intention of applying pressure. If Fox lands a perfect shield in any of these cases, he gets a free grab, at least. If he does not, depending on spacing, he may still get a grab, or he just pushes the MK back a bit, and spacing is reset. Pushing the MK back limits his new space, so repeated pushing (not saying just through use of this....as predictability is a bad thing... mainly saying that applying pressure through shields and slight zoning tactics, MK needs to move back to reset his spacing) leads to MK having less and less space. This is an advantageous position for Fox, since MK must do something else to get more space, and risks falling into Fox's stuff.
Fox also has the fastest pivot grab in the game, and while its range isn't terribly impressive (it's still pretty good, at least), it has uses, especially through his PWG (boost pivot grab, if that sounds better to you), which slides ridiculously far, and can punish early spot dodges, and such. While this doesn't directly beat zoning, with fair or tilts, it is another tool to possibly punish a shield, etc.
MK also has a bit of a weak-spot in his defense from about a 45 degree angle... which is perfect for Fox's SH Bair.
A well spaced Fox Bair is unpunishable from shield. So this use as a SH over most of MK's zoning is very good. It also has another use.
In general, A FH for Fox is a safe position against MK. I have already outlined that tornado and shuttle loop are less safe against Fox, so using them has risk involved. MK's uair speed really helps to cover him from above, but Dair, mixed with shine stalling, can still poke through this defense. And this is assuming that MK perfectly read your FH, and wasn't finishing an fsmash or something. If MK stays on the ground, a falling Bair is safe, as it is unpunishable on shield (also leading me to my next main point).
In general, yes, Fox gets outzoned by MK....as it's impossible to disagree. However, I feel that Fox has several tactics to get around and through zoning, as evidenced by his matchups with some other characters. I also agree that this is the area in which MK does best in the match, but other factors come into play, as well.
Fox has other tools than mentioned that are situationally good, but also a bit more risky. One of these is SHAD, which does allow him to get inside, but also risks a shuttle loop. Its implementation in an anti-zoning game cannot be neglected simply due to that, however, as if it can be beaten by shuttle loop, it can also be used to bait a shuttle loop into a whiff or shield, which can be beaten, as outlined above.
Summary
1. Fox has tools to make MK's easily spammable moves (tornado and shuttle loop) MUCH riskier than they normally are.
2. Fox has recovery tools that should allow him to reach the level on nearly every recovery.
3. Zoning is hard for Fox, but not unbeatable, as shown in other matchups. While he has no set "do this" to beat zoning, he has several different options that can each allow him to bait and punish, or just outprioritize it sometimes. This is where MK wins the matchup, I agree, but it does not eliminate every Fox option.
4. Fox has ways to poke shields and combo into everything he has, leading to lots of damage and potentially a kill move. This makes attacks on shield a problem for MK, and Fox has unpunishable attacks on shield.
5. Fox has a sizable killing advantage, which is huge in Brawl, and greatly evens out the matchup.
IN-DEPTH DISCUSSION
Strategy & Match-Up Mentality
Aerial Game: Fair, Uair, and Bair allow us to challenge his air game.
Ground Game: Combat his tilts with Jabs and Ftilts
Approach: NEVER APPROACH!
Defense: Lasers as usual.
Camping Game: read defense.
Edge Game: We all know that MK has basically the perfect recovery, so he easily wins the edgeguarding battle here, but I do not believe that Fox should be getting gimped at all. I feel that he has the options to get around all of MK's edgeguarding tactics, and only is gimped due to stupid/predictable recoveries.
With rising fair, shine stall, fast fall, Firefox, and Illusion, fox has several different ways to get back to the stage. While MK can cover one or two of these options, he has no way to completely cover every option.
Keep in mind that MK has no reliable way to send Fox at a downward angle, so any discussion of Fox trying to recover from below with firefox is irrelevant. The situation should never happen, unless MK guesses an edgeguard correctly. Every normal hit from the stage will allow Fox to recovery very high, giving him several options.
Should MK try to jump out to edgeguard Fox, high in the air, Fox will always be able to illusion back to the stage, either under a MK (due to Fox's fastfalling speed) or over a MK trying to punish the before. Fox can cover quite a bit of vertical ground much faster than MK can... so assuming he is recovering from very high, he always gets these options.
Should MK stay on the stage, and try to edgeguard/edgehog, a high firefox becomes a two way guessing game that MK cannot punish unless he guesses correctly. I am not saying to firefox just off the ledge and say "shuttle loop me". I am talking about nearly a 45 degree anglefrom the edge, where MK cannot reliably get the shuttle loop. From this stance, MK can either try for an edgehog, or punish deep into the stage. Due to ledge lag vs. invincibility frames, he cannot punish both options at once... so he has to choose one. (I am mainly saying that the usualy argument against this is that MK can just shuttle loop off of the ledge, hitting firefox, but he does not have time to cover the ledge during his invincibility frames, so firefox does not hit him off, and jump off shuttle loop in the same instance, due to ledge lag frames)
There have only listed two situations here, that are beaten by Fox's recovery. There are a few more situations, but with the mix that Fox does have for his recovery, simply saying that he has the tools to avoid MK's edgeguarding. Not saying Fox will never get gimped... it should not happen every match. I also did not consider platforms, which give Fox more areas to safely recover here... there is more to this, but the gist is that Fox has tools to recover.
Some people bring up the grab release on the ledge, but Fox can simply rising Fair away from the stage, and be above stage level, giving him options... it doesn't lead to an instant kill, if the Fox plays smart.
Surviving: Same as Edge game.
Killing: This is where all of Fox's matchups either even out or give him the edge. It is well known that Fox has one of the more useful killing moves in the game. His usmash can be done from a dash or out of shield, not to even mention that it COMBOS out of Dair and weak Nair in killing range, and kills vertically stupidly early. He also has a couple more reliable kills moves in dsmash and Bair, which makes him quite a versatile killer.
Already outlined how Fox can get Dair hits on MK... through Tornado, Shuttle loop, Situationally with shine stalling from above, and through a weakened shield. Dair leads to quite a bit of damage, in most cases... and can put roughly 30% in at least (situational, but I'm speaking in general terms). Basically, two dair hits, lasers, and random other hits like bair, etc, and MK is around 100% fairly easily. This is killing range, meaning MK will die if hit by a weak nair, dair, random usmash, or OoS usmash.
Usmash OoS is very useful, given by dash shield's sliding distance. It can hit a poorly spaced glide attack. It can hit ftilt or fair, when perfect shielded (possibly dtilt, but I'm not sure how regular this is). It can always punish tornado. (drop shield dash usmash)
So around 80-100% (stage dependent), Fox gets very scary to MK. Said before that tornado, shuttle loop/glide attack, and even zoning (with possible perfect shields) can all mean death to MK... so he has no true "safe" option at this time.
conversely, MK does not have a kill move that kills Fox below around 120% (dsmash and possibly fsmash)... these also kill horizontally (mainly), so are more dependent on DI and recovery. This is assuming no gimping, which spoken about before.
After dsmash and possibly fsmash, Nair and Grounded shuttle loop do not kill until upwards of 140%...
So MK has two fairly predictable attacks that can kill around 120%. They cannot be executed from a dash. Dsmash can from a shield, but that is also shieldable. And they (while they have good range) are generally predictable...and can be avoided with SHs and FHs... and if MK is just trying to land a kill, it becomes a risky for Fox's dair or usmash.
so realistically, Fox has about a 30-40% killling advantage on MK (again assuming that Fox should be able to avoid gimps).... and this becomes higher if MK cannot reliably land dsmash... whereas, since Fox has so many opportunities to Usmash, he should never have a problem killing around this range...
This advantage is enough to drastically even out this matchup.
Frame Data:
Stages
Stage Striking
* Possible Fox Strikes
* Possible Meta Knight Strikes
* To Be Classified:
Code:
Battlefield, Final Destination, Smashville, Yoshi's Island (Brawl),
[COLOR="Yellow"]Castle Siege, Halberd, Lylat Cruise, Pokémon Stadium 1[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Yellow"]Yellow indicates a stage that is not commonly a starter, but possible.
Neither player should depend on these[/COLOR]* Possible Fox Bans
* Possible Meta Knight Bans
* To Be Classified:
Code:
Battlefield, Final Destination, Smashville, Yoshi's Island (Brawl),
Castle Siege, Delfino Plaza, Halberd, Lylat Cruise, Pokémon Stadium 1, Brinstar,
Frigate Orpheon, Jungle Japes, Pictochat, Pirate Ship, Pokémon Stadium 2,
Rainbow Cruise, [COLOR="Yellow"]Yoshi's Island (Pipes), Green Greens, Port Town Aero Dive,
Distant Planet, Luigi's Mansion, Norfair[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Yellow"]Yellow indicates a stage that is not commonly legal, but possible.
Neither player should depend on these[/COLOR]* Possible Fox Counterpicks
* Possible Meta Knight Counterpicks
* To Be Classified:
Code:
Battlefield, Final Destination, Smashville, Yoshi's Island (Brawl),
Castle Siege, Delfino Plaza, Halberd, Lylat Cruise, Pokémon Stadium 1, Brinstar,
Frigate Orpheon, Jungle Japes, Pictochat, Pirate Ship, Pokémon Stadium 2,
Rainbow Cruise, [COLOR="Yellow"]Yoshi's Island (Pipes), Green Greens, Port Town Aero Dive,
Distant Planet, Luigi's Mansion, Norfair[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Yellow"]Yellow indicates a stage that is not commonly legal, but possible.
Neither player should depend on these[/COLOR]Possible Secondaries
Videos & Other Outside Resources
Videos
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=7A6B3F22DD26B93F
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWnSweQB1SI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tx5M7KdIdB4&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZJD6uw3z5o&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4impzhIP4Fw&feature=related
Verdict
50:50
50:50 
) meta knight 
