Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance | Final Chapter

Zεη said:

Ran, your scum flip would be me being townie.

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I know this now, and didn't before. That is why I went with your lynch over OS's. If you played townie and not so scummy so you can attract a nk, I would have gone with an OS lynch. He has said I was town many times, then when I doubt him, he would say I was null.

Also Cdubs, be patient. This is not twilight for Cdubs! As you can see, there has been much info to be brought to the table in twilight. Would you want to stifle our progress?

No idea what you're talking about.

@Cdubs, exactly

I mean I don't understand if you were trying to get a nk, that you would play scummy to get it. But, I believe there can be room to expirementing in games, even though they are long.

oh LOL zen. Missed your question.

Well, telling people to target you is not how to use your role if you are town. Again, what if doctor saves you. If mafia figure out your role, then they know who town PR's are. I think you just go with the flow and see what happens. If scummy looking people have been vote blocked, and if you force a vote blocked person to claim, you can see if their story lines up with when they targeted you.

There may have been a better way of bread crumbing, such as "if I die, look at how people are voting, or aren't voting" and "I'll be stunned if i'm the NK for tonight".

Baiting roles to target you is bad me thinks.

Although you know what... He could get the cop to investigate him... then, the cop would say that he couldn't vote. If Zen would out him, Zen = Scum. If Zen would keep it a secret, then town.

... Oh wait. Damn... I just realized, then scum would know the cop would be stunned for using an action, correct? (meaning they could guess that person is a PR)

That role seems confusing. ;-;

What's with all these non-flips?!?

Anyway, I have good news and bad news for you guys.

The good news is that I wasn' roleblocked last night, I got the coroner off.

The bad news is that Zen WAS indeed town, and I am now voteblocked.

Here, look.

Vote: Nich

I owe X1 an apology, and another look at his case on OS.

@mod request votecount

Nich is town
X1 is town
CDubs is scum

I'll have information later thanks to a friend who targeted me the Night prior to the last one. Do not claim, friend.

Going to wait for others to post a bit.

blank spaces

I don't like it either Nich.

I gotta figure this out more, Lucor died and again no alignment like Zen, plus Nabe goes missing.

There are a couple of PRs running around as Indy, I don't think a lot of these actions are scum related, that or a town role is doing something to other town.

@Nich, you used your result on Zen, right?

your ability*

Nicholas1024 said:

What's with all these non-flips?!?

Anyway, I have good news and bad news for you guys.

The good news is that I wasn' roleblocked last night, I got the coroner off.

The bad news is that Zen WAS indeed town, and I am now voteblocked.

Here, look.

Vote: Nich

I owe X1 an apology, and another look at his case on OS.

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Shouldn't your ability work in public? ( ie we all should be seeing Zen's identity )

And if you weren't rblocked, who was then? I wonder why scum changed the target after hidding Zen's flip

glg did you receive Raziek's message?

Red Ryu said:

There are a couple of PRs running around as Indy, I don't think a lot of these actions are scum related, that or a town role is doing something to other town.

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What makes you so sure? An abductor seem semi-confirmed judging by the deaths, but what makes you sure there's more than one?

Overswarm said:

@Nich, you used your result on Zen, right?

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Yeah.

Rajam said:

Shouldn't your ability work in public? ( ie we all should be seeing Zen's identity )

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No, the identity was sent directly to me.

Roleblocker, Abductor, and vote blocker as you said are making me think there are a lot more PR roles running around in this game.

So I am guessing in a set up like this, that there were at least 3, and very possibly 4 scummates. This means it may be fairly hard to get a vote against scum.

So, before I make big long post.

@FF. Of Ranmaru, OS and Red Ryu, if you had to vote for one today, who would you prefer to lynch and why?

I received Raziek's message.

I will not post the contents of his messages yet, I want to see how he acts first.

GLG, I need clarification from you.

giraffelasergun said:

Also hi guys, I tried to do as best as I could reading the past 30 pages or so but I couldn't really do it but there were a few things that really sticked out to me.

1. Beat almost never answered any questions asked to him, always had phone johns.
2. Raz never posted ANY thoughts on any player but himself, not surprised. I don't care what he does tonight, hes dead weight anyway.
3. I don't understand why cdubs was abductor because he said there was abductor.

Of the people still alive, I think Nich, Os, Ran, Beat, and Rajam need to go fast. Raz can stay I guess because hes more than likely town.

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Everytime I had "phone johns", I also said I would respond the following day, and afaik, I did so too, every time. Could you point out any questions that I actually didn't answer?

@Beat: Are you aware GLG is confirmed town?

Yes, I do. It won't do us any good if he uses faulty reasoning for his scumpicks, so I want him to be clear.

*Yes, I am

I think scum shot Nich but he was Doc protected, Luxor was likely a vig shot. That explains why Nich was not RB'ed. If the votecount proves Nich is unvotable then he should be considered as confirmed town as the only other possibilities are that there's a second voteblocker of some sorts or that Nich is a scum role who can visit dead players. Zen said his ability only affects those who target him in the Night so the person who hid his flip won't be voteblocked.

Its clear that its not necessarily the killer who masks alignments, since Zen didn't flip. Plus each Night has been longer than the deadline for the Night phase which makes me think its gonna be like villains mafia in that the mafia is sent all the kills which are being processed and they can choose to hide one alignment/role

Robokiyu role from Villains]Devour Corpse: If Mafia or any other kill order comes through said:

I think it's highly unlikely Volke is scum, and I believe Zen's claim. I believe he'll flip town.

Volke worked for whoever paid him, but he always kept his word. I don't see him working in tandem with others, and unless for some reason we're not going to learn his role, Zen has no reason to lie about it.

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@Beatstick: Now that Zen has died with no flip, comment on the above post and on Raz. Also comment on what he says here:

Raziek said:

I kinda missed everything as the result of a midterm. I got back just in time to see **** hit the fan.

I would have unvoted, but Ryu had already hammered.

I believed the claim, but as everyone else had already pointed out, he didn't exactly use it spectacularly, and I can't really see it helping town all that much.

Oddly enough, I almost chose Zen instead of Overswarm to whisper on Night 1.

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@Raziek: Post some content. Scumpicks. Analyse a post by a player. Do something.

@Nich: Were you told you were VB'ed or are you just assuming that from the fact you targeted Zen

@X1
Those quotes actually makes it look like Raz didn't want to be connected with the lynch, which implies he knew about Zen's alignment.
The problem is that Zen's alignment/role wasn't revealed, so it's hard to say if Raz was being scared scum or convinced town.
I still don't like the way he went through D2 though, and I think he might be a good lynch toDay.

@Everyone
What do you think about Ran?

BeatStick said:

GLG, I need clarification from you.



Everytime I had "phone johns", I also said I would respond the following day, and afaik, I did so too, every time. Could you point out any questions that I actually didn't answer?

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tbh when you wrote that I read 30 pages(15ppp) at once and I just remember you saying a lot of things like phone johns, i'll post tomorrow, and then I don't remember seeing any big posts made by you.

BeatStick said:

@X1
Those quotes actually makes it look like Raz didn't want to be connected with the lynch, which implies he knew about Zen's alignment.
The problem is that Zen's alignment/role wasn't revealed, so it's hard to say if Raz was being scared scum or convinced town.
I still don't like the way he went through D2 though, and I think he might be a good lynch toDay.

@Everyone
What do you think about Ran?

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Do you not believe Nich when he says Zen is town from his result?

When did you first suspect Raz might be scum?

X1-12 said:

@Nich: Were you told you were VB'ed or are you just assuming that from the fact you targeted Zen

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I was explicitly told I was voteblocked. It was a seperate PM from the coroner, actually.

Ranmaru bothers me, mostly his D1 day is what bugged me the most.

If Nich is voteblocked/stunned, then we need to make sure we have a greater msjority of the 10 who can post.

Raziek is visiting Yink right now, so not sure how often he will post. FF though, him I'm wondering if he could post more.

What exactly were you told?

Big post with everything that caught my eye from D2 that should deliver everything I promised on D2 and failed to provide and more will be up by tomorrow night.

All these no flips are ****ing ridiculous.

Nich is p. much confirmed town in my book.

Tons more stances/reads/questions are coming soon. Stay tuned.

frozenflame751 said:

Big post with everything that caught my eye from D2 that should deliver everything I promised on D2 and failed to provide and more will be up by tomorrow night.

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Hey, Frozenflame's alive!

*Grabs popcorn and lie detector*

Waiting on FF's post.

Ranmaru, What do you think of these recent no flips?

Alright, now that I'm finally 100% caught up, let's get down to business.

This post actually wont be as long as I originally intended it to be. I had organized most of it prior to the end of D2 and was compiling the last little bits and pieces from the most recent posts just before twilight ended and didn't end up having enough time to get my post up. A lot of the stuff I had originally planned to post were connections I had drawn assuming a Zen scum flip, but now knowing he is town (that is, if Nich is to be trusted, though I'm pretty damn convinced he's legit at this point), all of that stuff went out the window.

Fortunately, there is still plenty of other stuff that's caught my eye that isn't contingent on ZenScum, so I'll proceed to fill you guys in on what I've been seeing during my perpetual catch up state.

But before I do that, for those of you who just want my straight up reads at this point, here's what I'm willing to share:

Confirmed Town:
Me (for me)
Nich (for me)
GLG (modconfirmed)

Scum:
X1
Ranmaru

Think could be scum but need more info:
OS (probably not scum if X1 is scum; depending on his explanation for X1 town and the info he has to share this could shift radically)

Want to think is town but isn't playing like a claimed town PR should be:
Raziek

So there, that's the TL:DR version. Now come the details.

Why X1 is scum

Won't beat around the bush here, but I'm pretty much just piggybacking the **** out of BeatStick's (lolcwutididthar) case here: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12176829&postcount=1381

Deals that fundamentally contradict reads that were explicitly stated earlier? wtfamireading.jpg

I won't waste your time and space re-iterating what he said. Read the post, it's good. Only criticism I really have of it is he FoS's instead of votes at the end which I don't get at all because you can't get much scummier than contradicting your "100% town reads" in an attempt to strongman another lynch by cutting weird, baseless deals.

Beyond that though, as anyone who has read the thread is aware, X1's tirade against OS about "not pursuing/following up" on his reads is just S-Tier level ********. Again, won't waste your time and space restating what everyone else has already yelled at each other about for pages upon pages upon pages (trust me, I hated reading the 100+ posts about it and I'm sure none of you need the inactive ******* to beat the dead horse to look good). Point is, X1 places a burden of proof on OS to show that he "followed up" his case in a reasonable time period. OS provides metadata to show that it was only an alleged 15 hour gap. X1 says "no wai it was 96 hours" but doesn't provide data and links to show it. OS asks for the data. X1 tells him to prove that it wasn't 96 hours in between. Yay fallacious burden of proof/borderline argument from ignorance. That just doesn't fly and the fact that he [X1] dragged it on for so long just seems like he's grasping at straws, which compounds with the ridiculous deal swindling from earlier that Beat pointed out.

This post kind of exemplifies the terribleness of X1's exchanges with others on the issue in a short and sweet manner: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12189613&postcount=1466

Says **** like "false meta data" but doesn't provide contradicting evidence.

Says **** like "trying to make deals isn't scummy on its own" which is a blatant strawman. Obviously you have to consider intent when looking into a player's actions but the point is that A.) Your deals were contradictory to your explicitly stated reads (which means you either lied about your reads earlier, or are being ingenuine about your willingness to lynch the people you said you would in the terms of your "deal" which is equally scummy) and thus scummy, and B.) Because of the terrible nature of your "deal" pitches, he clearly derived ingenuine intent from the posts.

But yeah, you get the point.

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12184114&postcount=1454

Also not sure where this came from. He goes form having an issue with simply not following up on scum reads to now having an issue with only pursuing one scum read? Moving the goal posts much? Just reeks of classic "well I'm not winning this argument so I'd better attack my target in another way so I don't lose the exchange" strategy.

Where did you even get the impression that he'd only pursue one scum read anyway? And how does focusing on one read temporarily and grilling said person somehow guarantee permanent tunneling on said target and the abandoning of all other scum reads? Oh wait, it doesn't and you're just making ugly logic leaps. =/

So yeah, that's the deal with X1.

Why Ranmaru is scum

RanmaruScum is pretty contingent on X1 v. OS being TvS or SvS, but it really doesn't matter which of the two (if not both, but I find that highly unlikely) is scum. Here's why:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12190068&postcount=1480
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12190566&postcount=1506
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12191237&postcount=1533

I don't like these little side comments he keeps offering with regard to the X1/OS clash. He doesn't offer any significant stance on the issues at hand, and just tries to act like some sort of distant mediator of discussion. In fact, instead of offering his own stances on the issues, he even goes so far as to claim that the argument is "misleading" and that it might just simply be a "misunderstanding". Trying to distance yourself from the conflict and just look like the level headed, uninvolved townie much? These comments without any explanation for them whatsoever just reek of attempts to distance oneself from the debate incase one's partner bites the dust, but at the same time try and take some of the heat out of the debate in general in order to maybe prevent the focus of the town from being stuck on that conflict forever to give a partner some breathing room. Like he presents himself as if he has this TvT perception of the X1/OS debate but doesn't ever A.) Explain WHY he thinks that B.) Actually explicitly state that he thinks that or C.) Ask question that suggest that he genuinely believes the exchange is TvT. Like, why would you as X1 the question in red in post 1506 if you legitimately believed the exchange was probably TvT? It just isn't consistent and when I was reading these posts in order it really threw me for a loop because I couldn't conceive of a genuine thought process that would generate those posts.

Why OS can be scum:

Number one issue with OS is him blowing Dub's mention of a potential abductor earlier on in D2 out of proportion and arguing that his mention of the role suggested he was likely said role. Normally I wouldn't have a problem with this contention coming from OS, but what strikes me as odd is the fact that I mentioned a potential abductor first, yet no such argument was made against me. Why exactly is that, OS? If you're going to attack someone on principle regarding "unprovoked mention of indy roles", not being consistent with that principle makes it look like you're selectively omitting things, or simply choosing your battles to avoid unwanted attention from certain players.

That's really the only major thing that caught my eye. In terms of the X1/OS exchange again, I don't see that exchange as TvT so an X1 town flip atm would move OS into almost def. scum, but his recent proclamation that X1 is town for whatever reason kind of throws this read out of wack. Will need to here more of those details to solidify my understanding of this exchange.

Other recent stuff

@ Red Ryu: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12164703&postcount=1281

Alright, not so recent but what exactly do you mean by "Based on the mod post, I'm gonna say it triggered on death" in terms of Vult's role? How in the world did you reach that conclusion?

@ OS: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12218101&postcount=1810

As I've mentioned this post intrigues me. Hoping for some elaboration on it soon since I assume my post is one of the ones you're waiting for before you do so.

@ Rajam: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12218360&postcount=1815

Are you asking for whoever was roleblocked to claim? How do you know whether or not the scum switch RB targets? How did you know for sure that Raziek messaged GLG?

@ Cdubs: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12218617&postcount=1818

4 man scumteam is a bit OP IMO with all this no flipping bull**** going on, but doesn't hurt to assume worst case.

As for my vote choices from that list, right now I'd go with Ranmaru. Depending on what OS says in his next few posts, it could become him over Ran though. Red Ryu I've had a null/leaning scum read on all game but other people have simply passed him in terms of scummyness and informational value as plays and subsequent flips, so he's my last choice but wouldn't vehemently oppose his lynch either.

@ X1: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12219693&postcount=1824

Based on what you are saying here, what do you think was Luxor's alignment? Why do you think a vig would choose to hit Luxor N2 but not act D1?

And to wrap it all up,

Vote: X1

Man, it's good to be back. Questions, comments, concerns gogogo

I would manage to **** up my vote after all that.

Vote: X1

To answer your question, Reviver goes off based on death or them saying to off themselves for other town, at least as how I have seen it.

If he did it by choice, why on a vanilla, why not wait and bring other town back who may have PR roles? It wasn't by choice and with no night kill it means doc protected or they hit the reviver and my first guess is they hit the reviver since doc protecting someone that early on correctly is nigh unlikely.

I quickly skimmed the results of the night. I'm kinda salty about all the no flips, but I'm glad to see Nich confirmed Zen, I had a feeling he was telling the truth on the claim.

Anyway, I'm at Yink's, so I'm going to be declaring v/la for a few days, I don't have enough time to commit to this right now.

Don't like OS pushing Zen super hard at the end of the day though. I think we're looking at OS/Ran or X1 as scum.

Anyway, really sorry to be gone, but I just don't have time right now.

Point is, X1 places a burden of proof on OS to show that he "followed up" his case in a reasonable time period. OS provides metadata to show that it was only an alleged 15 hour gap. X1 says "no wai it was 96 hours" but doesn't provide data and links to show it. OS asks for the data.

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Are you ****ing serious.
[collapse=READ THEM FFS]

Nabe said:

'kay. OS, what's your own take on the timeframe here?
X1, boil down the case to like a short selling post for everyone.

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Nabe said:

In order:

• Because he's confirmed town and we don't need reads on him. Others answering questions is far more important -- he's in a position to be a man of action and take control of D2, which he was seemingly trying to do before he stopped posting altogether.
• No, he should be helping town find scum. But he shouldn't answer questions that can be left to other uncleared people.
• Yes.

@All: Zen's not going toDay. OS is the play, Ran is the fallback.

Nich, Zen has promised content toMorrow and I'm hoping he'll deliver. Do you not like an OS lynch? Why? What about a Ran lynch?

X1 and OS: there's been a lot of talk about timelines, 15 hours v. 96 hours or whatever. Get it cleared up with simple quotes -- each of you needs to quote the timeline you're talking about.

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X1-12 said:

I'm asking questions which you are repeatedly failing to answer. You have not explained what you can gain. Each question I ask you you wave away saying "Why can't you understand this" Each time I ask you how it helped you read CDubs you say "Are you suggesting gathering information isn't useful?" which is not an answer to my question


Furthermore, your data about time of posts is completely wrong. You are using false data to defend yourself.

The post was on the 9th of Febuary, NOT the 12th, so when you talk about 15 hours, its actually more like 94 hours, just over 4 full days. (Check timestamps on these two posts)

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X1-12 said:

You saw the post that you quote there, and saw the tell long before that. This much is clear from this post.

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12150491&postcount=1207

That shows you had suspicion on CDubs for the indie tell. Yet its not until 4 days later, after I call you out on it that you start questioning it.



Please stop intentionally misinterpreting my posts. I'm saying you should have been pursuing both of the them, something I make clear in my #1442. At no point did I ever suggest that you should NOT be looking at Zen.

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X1-12 said:

Overswarm do not drag this round in a circle. I've already proved that it over 4 days had passed and you had not followed up the read.

You acknowledge the read here: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12150491&postcount=1207

I call you out on not following up here: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12175783&postcount=1365

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X1-12 said:

Nabe read 1485.

OS is saying that because he explained that he had a read at T-15 hours, its only those 15 hours when he should have been pursuing Cdubs

Im saying that OS acknowledges the indy read at T-96 hours, so in all that time he should have been pursuing Cdubs

'T' is the post I call him out for not following up on Cdubs. T and T-96 are linked in post 1485

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[/collapse]
I Explain the time frame AND give links several times. Plus there's two quotes of Nabe asking OS for any sort of detail on this timeframe thing. Something I asked OS to answer AGAIN (it big, bolded letters) in this post

A.) Your deals were contradictory to your explicitly stated reads (which means you either lied about your reads earlier, or are being ingenuine about your willingness to lynch the people you said you would in the terms of your "deal" which is equally scummy) and thus scummy, and B.) Because of the terrible nature of your "deal" pitches, he clearly derived ingenuine intent from the posts.

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I changed my mind on Ranmaru. Why did you not even include this in your list of possibilities?