Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[CannonStreak]

I wonder who the next Smash Bros. Ultimate DLC character will be? Hopefully, it's Crash.

EDIT: Happy 500th page!

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I'm still sticking to a rough schedule of 9 next month, 10 in June, and 11 in September. Gives Nintendo buzz and attention at just the right points, and if the company does anything around E3, it would be an ideal part of a presentation or series of announcements.

 

[Jigglymaster]

Ever since Nintendo Directs became the way of the ancients, all DLC starting Byleth onwards has pretty much been released a week or so after their reveal. I can only assume this is the case because Sakurai didn't have to show characters early anymore to fit alongside directs and could just release them on his own pace. Even if they have an E3 presentation, I only expect one character to be there. It's what other people have been saying. March/April, June, and September/October.

They seem to be on good pace and I would be surprised if they couldn't get the last fighter out until the las possible month. Even if we don't get a fighter until June, I still think it's unlikely that we'll get two at E3.

 

[Otoad64]

I think it's still possible we get a direct in march

 

[CannonStreak]

I think it's still possible we get a direct in march

I am kinda thinking that as well.

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

I wonder who the next Smash Bros. Ultimate DLC character will be? Hopefully, it's Crash.

EDIT: Happy 500th page!

I know "Some" people are sick of hearing about Crash Bandicoot's chances and call him "Overrated", But it's possible that he can appear in any of the last 3 roster spots in the pass, Considering the circumstances.

Fighter #9: Expected in March, The same time Crash Bandicoot 4: It's About Time releases on Switch.

Fighter #10: Expected in June during E3/Digital Event, Crash Bandicoot is a big enough icon to carry the weight of an E3 announcement and the franchise has a history of releases and announcements in June.

Least optimistic scenario.

Fighter #11: Holiday 2021 maybe even VGA's, Crash Bandicoot has had ties announcements in the VGA's which could be fitting for the final character reveal.

Yes I know I'm being bias, But it doesn't sound too crazy of a scenario, But I'll admit my confidence will probably drop considerably if Crash Bandicoot doesn't show up in the next 2 spots, Just pure speculation.

 

[Dinoman96]

I can't really see Fighter #11 being released that far late in the year, unless the last character is really complex or something.

Really, 2020's release schedule was screwed up because (besides COVID, of course) they frontloaded the pass with the two most complicated and gimmicky characters of the pass thus far (). Meanwhile Sephiroth is a much simplier character and he only took two months after Steve's release to come out.

 

[SharkLord]

I kinda doubt we'd get another VGA reveal. The announcement gaps have decreased considerably after the ARMS guessing game, and the end of December is usually a placeholder date, from what I can gather. I'm expecting a September reveal for CP11, maybe October at the latest.

 

[GothicSlenderman]

I wouldn’t call Ahri’s clothing “Japanese” though. I think it’s a variant of Korean clothing actually, since Ahri’s beta name was also Korean

As in back to back trailers like Hero & Banjo, or in the same trailer like Kencineroar and Simon/Richter?

True true.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I can't really see Fighter #11 being released that far late in the year, unless the last character is really complex or something.

Really, 2020's release schedule was screwed up because (besides COVID, of course) they frontloaded the pass with the two most complicated and gimmicky characters of the pass thus far (). Meanwhile Sephiroth is a much simplier character and he only took two months after Steve's release to come out.

If it wasn’t for COVID, we’d see Steve and Sephiroth revealed at E3 and the fourth Fighter Pass 2 character revealed later in 2020.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I think the three month gap eventually finishing in September also makes sense regardless of what we get after. If there's more characters coming then a big reveal starting at the VGA's makes sense. But if we are done after Fighter 11, then Nintendo can still easily advertise both completed Fighter's Passes (and whatever associated deals) through the rest of the year including into the holiday season.

 

[SharkLord]

I wouldn’t call Ahri’s clothing “Japanese” though. I think it’s a variant of Korean clothing actually, since Ahri’s beta name was also Korean

Yeah, I have little knowledge on LoL but I at least know she's based on the Korean kumiho (Or gumiho, depending on how you spell it). I could see someone who's not as well-versed in this stuff getting confused, especially since the kitsune is far and away the most well-known of the Asian nine-tailed foxes in the West, but if we're trying to find someone who 100% fits she wouldn't really work.

 

[GothicSlenderman]

Speaking of "2 fighters be revealed same day" I had a dream last night that I was at a "live direct event" in a sketchy looking warehouse. I knew it was official as Sakurai was there in person. They revealed 2 fighters but they were "Stone Kirby" and some horror ghost monster from a browser horror game. The crowd booed and wondered why they didn't just add a Kirby enemy with stone abilities or even an "ability kirby" but no one seemed to care about the adobe flash ghoul scratching into Mario. Also Stone Kirby wasn't based on the copy ability. It was it's own thing as Kirby had a large Riot Games looking stone crown with a gold rim as he was holding a tiny mallet in the same style. Also they reveal him with regular Kirby looking at him through a cage with a solid black background. Stone Kirby slammed his tiny mallet down as the cage just disappeared like someone hit the delete key.

Yeah, I have little knowledge on LoL but I at least know she's based on the Korean kumiho (Or gumiho, depending on how you spell it). I could see someone who's not as well-versed in this stuff getting confused, especially since the kitsune is far and away the most well-known of the Asian nine-tailed foxes in the West, but if we're trying to find someone who 100% fits she wouldn't really work.

Yeah, I'd see Teemo, Katarina or Ryze being considered more as they were a part of the originals first included on launch. Though I could see her making it in simply because of her popularity as she is in Ruined King, Wild Rift, that LoL fighting game, Teamfight Tactics, ect. And being the leader of the Star Guardians plus a member of K/DA. Though Akali has been rivalling her in popularity as of late

 

[Shroob]

Yeah, we're not waiting until December for CP11 lol.

We'll "probably" get one next month, judging it'll have been 80-90~ days since Sephiroth, and probably another at the very least shown off in June.



If we're having to wait until December from like, June or July for CP11, something has gone FUBAR.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Yeah, I'd see Teemo, Katarina or Ryze being considered more as they were a part of the originals first included on launch. Though I could see her making it in simply because of her popularity as she is in Ruined King, Wild Rift, that LoL fighting game, Teamfight Tactics, ect. And being the leader of the Star Guardians plus a member of K/DA. Though Akali has been rivalling her in popularity as of late

i've been looking for info on that, got a link?

another candidate i wouldn't sleep on is Ekko - popular cause he's in True Damage and has his own upcoming game, CONV/RGENCE

 

[Shroob]

i've been looking for info on that, got a link?

another candidate i wouldn't sleep on is Ekko - popular cause he's in True Damage and has his own upcoming game, CONV/RGENCE

Riot showed off early screenshots of it years ago, all we ever saw was Garen and Katarina standing across from one another on a 2-dimensional setting.

So far, nothing's come of it.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

i found a screenshot with Ahri in it:

****. doesn't seem to want to load. here's a link: https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3rD...s/chorus_image/image/65476683/project_l.0.jpg

 

[Shroob]

Really, League is one of those franchise that'll make me audibly groan if it gets in.


Ignoring my own(negative) bias towards Riot as a company for a bit


I get why it's big, it's the biggest Esport in the world, bigger than Counter Strike or Starcraft


But as someone who was roped into playing it because all my friends were playing it for a time.... god I don't like it lol. The game just was not for me, and found it tedious.


I can put aside my own bias and recognize it's a game that's definitely risen up to a place deserving of recognition, but my bias says "God I don't like this game lol."

 

[Speed Weed]

Question time: What would you say is your "speculation style?" What do you look for in someone when making your predictions?

For me:

• Bias - Yeah, gonna be honest here. I mainly focus on characters I'm actually interested in. Probably not going to be very accurate, but ah well. Not like we'd be very accurate anyways.
• Underdogs - Going off of the above, I tend to lean towards characters that have things going against them rather than any of the obvious/safe picks. All the DLC so far has had stuff going against them and very little were widely predicted because of that, so I'm a bit hesitant to go with really popular predictions.
• Breaking Precedent - Smash tends to break one pattern that it's held, then move on and break another one. Maybe not the most accurate of theories, but I tend to look for major precedent that hasn't been broken yet, rather than continuing any patterns. Goes hand-in-hand with the above point.
• Entire Pack - When predicting more content, I tend to look for the entire pack rather than just the fighter. It's not just "(X) joins the battle," it's "Super Smash Bros. Ultimate x (X)." Might be a bit of a divisive opinion, but I feel that the packs are a crossover with the series and not just the character, and they are decided by that as well.
• No Rumors - If they're not from a credible source, I don't care. We've had loads of leaks that get things right, only to turn up wrong in the end. Credible sources only leak the fighter at the last minute. To think that any of the anonymous months-old 4chan leaks could know that in advance, even if they're just one fighter and not the entire pass, is extremely unrealistic.

-First of all, I gotta say I've been finding myself moving away more and more from the "ok here are the 3 characters I think are next" style of speculation. I've reached the point where there's just too many goddamn variables for me to consider when making solid predictions. I just can't with it anymore man, I've found myself much preferring the approach of just judging characters individually

-Secondly, I've never been too enthused about discussing characters based on general "synergy": stuff like anniversaries and new games. Not saying that these things don't ever matter (ok maybe they really don't in anniversaries' case), moreso that I'm just not interested in talking about these aspects. Where speculation really shines for me is when I get to sit down and either spread the word of or learn about a character's history. Their influence, their appeal. Compared to just going "well ya know guys we're getting the Paul Blart: Mall Cop Switch port in two months I think this bodes well for his chances", I find it much cooler and more fulfilling to come out of a conversation having learned that "oh this character actually left a pretty big impact or their series is actually pretty popular" (keep in mind that this isn't even just about underdogs - I'd still apply this to someone explaining the appeal of, say, Hayabusa to some joe schmoe who wonders what's the big deal with Ninja Gaiden). It's also an outlet for me to try convincing people that Ryo and Phantasy Star are just as valid of SEGA candidates as the ones we usually talk about

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

December may be a little late, But I can see scenario where the last fighter gets revealed in the Fall (September/October) and if for whatever reason the fighter is not released in the same months of the reveal, Then it will come out at November at the latest.

But yeah, September/October seems much more likely.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Riot showed off early screenshots of it years ago, all we ever saw was Garen and Katarina standing across from one another on a 2-dimensional setting.

So far, nothing's come of it.

Darius and Jinx have also been confirmed. We even saw a few brief seconds of gameplay for both.

 

[Inue Houji]

Did FP1 have a timeframe/end date?

 

[Perkilator]

Did FP1 have a timeframe/end date?

The placeholder date was February 2020, and Byleth released just a bit before that.

 

[Inue Houji]

The placeholder date was February 2020, and Byleth released just a bit before that.

We definitely shouldn't expect it to release any earlier this time then.

 

[Koopaul]

"It's about the odds of it happening", which, we don't know what the selection process internally is.

"It's about observing trends", yes because observing trends has had SUCH a good track record when it comes to Smash in the past. So glad Blog Theory was right.

"I don't see it being likely because...", and going to stop you right there.


You're completely fine to have your opinion as to why you don't think it's likely, but neither you, nor I, are Sakurai, and acting like we are is just pissing in the wind. For all we know, he could have legit picked 3 Street Fighter characters over the myriad of other Capcom series, OR, he could not have. We just don't know.

And you could be hit by lightning 3 times in a row. It's possible. Anything is possible. But don't act like the selection for Smash has been absolutely all over the place and completely unpredictable. There are weird things that happen but it's not like they happen too often.

Yes we got Piranha Plant, but its not like after Piranha Plant we got Fire Piranha Plant, followed by Thwomp, followed by Mecha Koopa. If someone was to suggest that we might get another Mario enemy like Goomba Stack, you might think that sounds unlikely. Well according to you it isn't. Nothing is unlikely! Any random character is just as likely as anyone. In fact why do we even have this thread? Speculation? Utter nonsense! It's impossible to speculate! We aren't Sakurai. For all we know Penguin Mario might be the next fighter.

Shut down the thread. There's nothing more to discuss. Smash fighters are like the wind, completely amorphous and unpredictable. Remember that time we got the Talking Money from Conker's Bad Fur Day? He's my favorite fighter.

 

[Shroob]

We definitely shouldn't expect it to release any earlier this time then.

I mean, we absolutely should.


If we're getting a character presumably next month, and then one around the E3 timeframe, if we're waiting until December-ish, what is making us wait an entire half a year for a single character?


The December end date is a placeholder, nothing more.

 

[Inue Houji]

I mean, we absolutely should.


If we're getting a character presumably next month, and then one around the E3 timeframe, if we're waiting until December-ish, what is making us wait an entire half a year for a single character?


The December end date is a placeholder, nothing more.

Considering the last placeholder barely stayed on schedule, and wasn't affected by Covid, I'd say it seems unlikely.

 

[GothicSlenderman]

i've been looking for info on that, got a link?

another candidate i wouldn't sleep on is Ekko - popular cause he's in True Damage and has his own upcoming game, CONV/RGENCE

Right now it's just known as Project L and was announced in their 10 year anniversary stream in 2019. Ahri was one of the few characters shown next to Jinx, Katarina and Darius. Here's a Polygon article https://www.polygon.com/2019/10/15/20915736/league-of-legends-fighting-game-project-l-riot-games

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I mean if the first pass can finish in January when the end month was February, the second being complete in October when the end month is December doesn't seem that out of the question. I mean even with COVID the time between the releases in the second pass hasn't been much longer than that between Joker and Hero.

 

[Shroob]

Considering the last placeholder barely stayed on schedule, and wasn't affected by Covid, I'd say it seems unlikely.

The last placeholder also only had a single year, for 5 characters. We've been given 2 years for 6, and Sakurai has said multiple times that Covid has not ****ed things up and had a very smooth transition.


If we do get a character next month, and then one around E3, forgive my skepticism that it'd take an entire half a year for a single character.

 

[GothicSlenderman]

Shhh don't tell no one. But I heard from an old wise man at a 7/11 tat Nintendo is altering the next 3 fighters to "be with the times" and said that these are the last 3 fighters for Smash Ultimate

 

[Dan Quixote]

While League of Legends is on topic again, I wanna say what's been living in my head ever since the Arms reveal a year ago. Yknow the one where they made us guess which Arms fighter would make it into the game? I'd pay so much for them to do that again for LoL because then there'd actually be like 10 with an equal popularity and chance and people would GENUINELY fight over who they want it to be and that'd be hilarious.

 

[SharkLord]

Right now it's just known as Project L and was announced in their 10 year anniversary stream in 2019. Ahri was one of the few characters shown next to Jinx, Katarina and Darius. Here's a Polygon article https://www.polygon.com/2019/10/15/20915736/league-of-legends-fighting-game-project-l-riot-games

First thing I thought of when I read the name was "L Is Real."
Second thing I thought was "Take the L."

I need help

 

[Jigglymaster]

If the next Fighter doesn't come out until June, then I think it's reasonable to expect the final character in December. If FP9 comes out in March/April, then there's no way they're holding FP11 until December. The only month we can be sure of is June, which will either host FP9 or FP10.

 

[Shroob]

And you could be hit by lightning 3 times in a row. It's possible. Anything is possible. But don't act like the selection for Smash has been absolutely all over the place and completely unpredictable. There are weird things that happen but it's not like they happen too often.

Yes we got Piranha Plant, but its not like after Piranha Plant we got Fire Piranha Plant, followed by Thwomp, followed by Mecha Koopa. If someone was to suggest that we might get another Mario enemy like Goomba Stack, you might think that sounds unlikely. Well according to you it isn't. Nothing is unlikely! Any random character is just as likely as anyone. In fact why do we even have this thread? Speculation? Utter nonsense! It's impossible to speculate! We aren't Sakurai. For all we know Penguin Mario might be the next fighter.

Shut down the thread. There's nothing more to discuss. Smash fighters are like the wind, completely amorphous and unpredictable. Remember that time we got the Talking Money from Conker's Bad Fur Day? He's my favorite fighter.

The difference is I'm open to the possibility one way or another that someone like Chun could or could not happen next.


Your original post was "The patterns" and "In my opinion", though not worded as such.



When will we learn that we don't know what the patterns are, if there even are any at all.

 

[3BitSaurus]

While League of Legends is on topic again, I wanna say what's been living in my head ever since the Arms reveal a year ago. Yknow the one where they made us guess which Arms fighter would make it into the game? I'd pay so much for them to do that again for LoL because then there'd actually be like 10 with an equal popularity and chance and people would GENUINELY fight over who they want it to be and that'd be hilarious.

You say hilarious, but considering just the size of the fanbase involved, I... have my doubts.

I also pity anyone who tried to trek through Korean or Chinese forums just to see what their keyboard wars would look like.

 

[Inue Houji]

Considering Sakurai's adoration for the originals, shouldn't DotA be the one to get a rep, not LoL?
Sakurai doesn't decide anymore though, so this doesn't even matter

 

[SharkLord]

Considering Sakurai's adoration for the originals, DotA shouldn't DotA be the one to get a rep, not LoL?
Sakurai doesn't decide anymore though, so this doesn't even matter

If we were going for the original originals, we'd have Dragon Slayer and Ultima before Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest.

 

[Shroob]

The only "pattern" that I'm willing to put stock in, and it's not even a real pattern as much as it is a knockoff of the Amiibo theory, is that our average between characters has been roughly 80-90 days between both pass 1 and 2.

You get outliers like Hero to Banjo, which was very short

Or Min Min to Steve, which was 103 days


But it's always roughly close, and our next month around that timeframe is March. Even with Covid, this scheduling has been on track, minus the slight hiccups with Steve and MinMin, which came back with a roar with Sephiroth being soo shortly after Steve.

 

[Idon]

Considering Sakurai's adoration for the originals, shouldn't DotA be the one to get a rep, not LoL?
Sakurai doesn't decide anymore though, so this doesn't even matter

Looks at Devil May Cry and Shin Megami Tensei.